Risks最新文献

{"title":"Climate Change-Related Disaster Risk Mitigation through Innovative Insurance Mechanism: A System Dynamics Model Application for a Case Study in Latvia","authors":"Maksims Feofilovs, Andrea Jonathan Pagano, Emanuele Vannucci, Marina Spiotta, Francesco Romagnoli","doi":"10.3390/risks12030043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12030043","url":null,"abstract":"This study explores how the System Dynamics modeling approach can help deal with the problem of conventional insurance mechanisms by studying the feedback loops governing complex systems connected to the disaster insurance mechanism. Instead of addressing the disaster’s underlying risk, the traditional disaster insurance strategy largely focuses on providing financial security for asset recovery after a disaster. This constraint becomes especially concerning as the threat of climate-related disasters grows since it may result in rising long-term damage expenditures. A new insurance mechanism is suggested as a solution to this problem to lower damage costs while safeguarding insured assets and luring new assets to be protected. A local case study utilizing a System Dynamics stock and flow model is created and validated by examining the model’s structure, sensitivity analysis, and extreme value test. The results of the case study performed on a city in Latvia highlight the significance of effective disaster risk reduction strategies applied within the innovative insurance mechanism in lowering overall disaster costs. The logical coherence seen throughout the analysis of simulated scenario results strengthens the established model’s plausibility. The case study’s findings support the innovative insurance mechanism’s dynamic hypothesis and show the main influencing factors on the dynamics within the proposed innovative insurance mechanism. The information this study can help insurance firms, policy planners, and disaster risk managers make decisions that will benefit local communities and other stakeholders regarding climate-related disaster risk mitigation.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"252 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140008604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"When to Hedge Downside Risk?","authors":"Christos I. Giannikos, Hany Guirguis, Andreas Kakolyris, Tin Shan (Michael) Suen","doi":"10.3390/risks12020042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12020042","url":null,"abstract":"Hedging downside risk before substantial price corrections is vital for risk management and long-only active equity manager performance. This study proposes a novel methodology for crafting timing signals to hedge sectors’ downside risk. These signals can be integrated into existing strategies simply by purchasing sector index put options. Our methodology generates successful signals for price corrections in 2000 (dot-com bubble) and 2008 (global financial crisis). A key innovation involves utilizing sector correlations. Major price swings within six months are signaled when a sector exhibits high valuation alongside abnormal correlations with others. Utilizing the price-to-earnings ratio for identifying sectors’ high valuations is more beneficial than the bond–stock earnings yield differential. Our signals are also more efficient than those of standard technical analyses.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139902587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Do US Active Mutual Funds Make Good of Their ESG Promises? Evidence from Portfolio Holdings","authors":"Massimo Guidolin, Monia Magnani","doi":"10.3390/risks12020041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12020041","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the occurrence of greenwashing in the US mutual fund industry. Using panel regression methods, we test whether there exist differences in the portfolio investment behaviors of active equity funds that are self-declared to be driven by ESG motives when compared to all other funds. In particular, we focus on two aspects of funds’ portfolio allocation decisions, i.e., the actual implied average ESG ratings of the stocks a mutual fund invests in and the portfolio share invested in sin stocks. We do not find strong evidence that ESG and non-ESG funds make identical investment choices and hence reject the hypothesis of wiespread greenwashing. ESG funds, on average, invest more in companies with higher ESG ratings and avoid sin stocks more than non-ESG funds. Nonetheless, we obtain evidence that some degree of greenwashing may still be occurring. However, over time, the differences between ESG and non-ESG funds in these behaviors seem have declined, suggesting a potential reduction in greenwashing practices.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"206 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139902481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"In Memory of Peter Carr (1958–2022)","authors":"Giuseppe Campolieti, Arash Fahim, Dan Pirjol, Harvey Stein, Tai-Ho Wang, Lingjiong Zhu","doi":"10.3390/risks12020039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12020039","url":null,"abstract":"The editors of this special issue and several of the contributing authors have known Peter for a long time. We thought that the special issue will be enriched by adding a few personal notes and recollections about our interactions with Peter.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139902606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analyzing Size of Loss Frequency Distribution Patterns: Uncovering the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Shengkun Xie, Yuanshun Li","doi":"10.3390/risks12020040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12020040","url":null,"abstract":"This study delves into a critical examination of the Size of Loss distribution patterns in the context of auto insurance during pre- and post-pandemics, emphasizing their profound influence on insurance pricing and regulatory frameworks. Through a comprehensive analysis of the historical Size of Loss data, insurers and regulators gain essential insights into the probabilities and magnitudes of insurance claims, informing the determination of precise insurance premiums and the management of case reserving. This approach aids in fostering fair competition, ensuring equitable premium rates, and preventing discriminatory pricing practices, thereby promoting a balanced insurance landscape. The research further investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on these Size of Loss patterns, given the substantial shifts in driving behaviours and risk landscapes. Also, the research contributes to the literature by addressing the need for more studies focusing on the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on pre- and post-pandemic auto insurance loss patterns, thus offering a holistic perspective encompassing both insurance pricing and regulatory dimensions.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"254 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139902825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Objective Measure of Distributional Estimability as Applied to the Phase-Type Aging Model","authors":"Cong Nie, Xiaoming Liu, Serge B. Provost","doi":"10.3390/risks12020037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12020037","url":null,"abstract":"The phase-type aging model (PTAM) is a class of Coxian-type Markovian models that can provide a quantitative description of the effects of various aging characteristics. Owing to the unique structure of the PTAM, parametric inference on the model is affected by a significant estimability issue, its profile likelihood functions being flat. While existing methods for assessing distributional non-estimability require the subjective specification of thresholds, this paper objectively quantifies estimability in the context of general statistical models. More specifically, this is achieved via a carefully designed cumulative distribution function sensitivity measure, under which the threshold is tailored to the empirical cumulative distribution function, thus becoming an experiment-based quantity. The proposed definition, which is validated to be innately sound, is then employed to determine and enhance the estimability of the PTAM.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"94 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139754129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic Liability-Driven Investment under Sponsor’s Loss Aversion","authors":"Dong-Hwa Lee, Joo-Ho Sung","doi":"10.3390/risks12020038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12020038","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates a dynamic liability-driven investment policy for defined-benefit (DB) plans by incorporating the loss aversion of a sponsor, who is assumed to be more sensitive to underfunding than overfunding. Through the lens of prospect theory, we first set up a loss-aversion utility function for a sponsor whose utility depends on the funding ratio in each period, obtained from stochastic processes of pension assets and liabilities. We then construct a multi-horizon dynamic control optimization problem to find the optimal investment strategy that maximizes the expected utility of the plan sponsor. A genetic algorithm is employed to provide a numerical solution for our nonlinear dynamic optimization problem. Our results suggest that the overall paths of the optimal equity allocation decline as the age of a plan participant reaches retirement. We also find that the equity portion of the portfolio increases when a sponsor is less loss-averse or the contribution rate is lower.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139754070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantitative Modeling of Financial Contagion: Unraveling Market Dynamics and Bubble Detection Mechanisms","authors":"Ionuț Nica, Ștefan Ionescu, Camelia Delcea, Nora Chiriță","doi":"10.3390/risks12020036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12020036","url":null,"abstract":"This study explored the complex interplay and potential risk of financial contagion across major financial indices, focusing on the Bucharest Exchange Trading Investment Funds Index (BET-FI), along with global indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite (IXIC), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Our analysis covered an extensive period from 2012 to 2023, with a particular emphasis on Romania’s financial market. We employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling to examine the interrelations among these indices, treating the BET-FI index as our primary variable. Our research also integrated Exponential Curve Fitting (EXCF) and Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) models to identify and scrutinize potential price bubbles in these indices. We analyzed moments of high volatility and deviations from typical market trends, influenced by diverse factors like government policies, presidential elections, tech sector performance, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical tensions, specifically the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The ARDL model revealed a stable long-term relationship among the variables, indicating their interconnectedness. Our study also highlights the significance of short-term market shifts leading to long-term equilibrium, as shown in the Error Correction Model (ECM). This suggests the existence of contagion effects, where small, short-term incidents can trigger long-term, domino-like impacts on the financial markets. Furthermore, our variance decomposition examined the evolving contributions of different factors over time, shedding light on their changing interactions and impact. The Cholesky factors demonstrated the interdependence between indices, essential for understanding financial contagion effects. Our research thus uncovered the nuanced dynamics of financial contagion, offering insights into market variations, the effectiveness of our models, and strategies for detecting financial bubbles. This study contributes valuable knowledge to the academic field and offers practical insights for investors in turbulent financial environments.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139754125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Robust Portfolio Optimization with Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance Preference","authors":"Marcos Escobar-Anel, Yiyao Jiao","doi":"10.3390/risks12020033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12020033","url":null,"abstract":"This study addresses the crucial but under-explored topic of ambiguity aversion, i.e., model misspecification, in the area of environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) within portfolio decisions. It considers a risk- and ambiguity-averse investor allocating resources to a risk-free asset, a market index, a green stock, and a brown stock. The study employs a robust control approach rooted in relative entropy to account for model misspecification and derive closed-form optimal investment strategies. The key contribution of this study includes demonstrating, using two sets of empirical data on asset returns and ESG ratings, the substantial influence of ambiguity on optimal trading strategies, particularly highlighting the differential effects of market, green, and brown ambiguities. As a by-product of our analytical solutions, the study contrasts ambiguity-averse investors with their non-ambiguity counterparts, revealing more cautious risk exposures with a reduction in short-selling positions for the former. Furthermore, three types of investors who employ popular suboptimal strategies are identified, together with two loss measures used to quantify their performance. The findings reveal that popular strategies, not accounting for ESG and misspecification in the model, could lead to significant financial costs, with the extent of loss varying depending on those two factors: investors’ ambiguity aversion profiles and ESG preferences.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139754272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"L1 Regularization for High-Dimensional Multivariate GARCH Models","authors":"Sijie Yao, Hui Zou, Haipeng Xing","doi":"10.3390/risks12020034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12020034","url":null,"abstract":"The complexity of estimating multivariate GARCH models increases significantly with the increase in the number of asset series. To address this issue, we propose a general regularization framework for high-dimensional GARCH models with BEKK representations, and obtain a penalized quasi-maximum likelihood (PQML) estimator. Under some regularity conditions, we establish some theoretical properties, such as the sparsity and the consistency, of the PQML estimator for the BEKK representations. We then carry out simulation studies to show the performance of the proposed inference framework and the procedure for selecting tuning parameters. In addition, we apply the proposed framework to analyze volatility spillover and portfolio optimization problems, using daily prices of 18 U.S. stocks from January 2016 to January 2018, and show that the proposed framework outperforms some benchmark models.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139680199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}