J. Banks, R. Blundell, Zoé Oldfield, James P. Smith
{"title":"House Price Volatility and the Housing Ladder","authors":"J. Banks, R. Blundell, Zoé Oldfield, James P. Smith","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1680657","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1680657","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the effects of housing price risk on housing choices over the life-cycle. Housing price risk can be substantial but, unlike other risky assets which people can avoid, the fact that most people will eventually own their home creates an insurance demand for housing assets early in life. Our contribution is to focus on the importance of home ownership and housing wealth as a hedge against future house price risk for individuals moving up the ladder – people living in places with higher housing price risk should own their first home at a younger age, should live in larger homes, and should be less likely to refinance. These predictions are tested and shown to hold using panel data from the United States and Great Britain.","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129051469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"International Knowledge Diffusion and Home-Bias Effect: Do USPTO and EPO Patent Citations Tell the Same Story?","authors":"E. Bacchiocchi, F. Montobbio","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9442.2010.01614.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2010.01614.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates the international diffusion of technical knowledge using patent citations. We control for self-citations and for procedural differences between patent offices using equivalent patents. We find that (1) there are clear biases in patent examination processes that generate citations in the two offices; (2) at the EPO there is a strong localization effect at the country level, and the size is comparable to that found at the USPTO; (3) technological fields have different properties of diffusion in the two patent offices that do not depend on a patent office bias; (4) using EPO data, the US is not the leading country in terms of citations made and received, as occurs at the USPTO.","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132063371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
David Card, Alexandre Mas, E. Moretti, Emmanuel Saez
{"title":"Inequality at Work: The Effect of Peer Salaries on Job Satisfaction","authors":"David Card, Alexandre Mas, E. Moretti, Emmanuel Saez","doi":"10.1257/AER.102.6.2981","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/AER.102.6.2981","url":null,"abstract":"Economists have long speculated that individuals care about both their absolute income and their income relative to others. We use a simple theoretical framework and a randomized manipulation of access to information on peers' wages to provide new evidence on the effects of relative pay on individual utility. A randomly chosen subset of employees of the University of California was informed about a new website listing the pay of all University employees. All employees were then surveyed about their job satisfaction and job search intentions. Our information treatment doubles the fraction of employees using the website, with the vast majority of new users accessing data on the pay of colleagues in their own department. We find an asymmetric response to the information treatment: workers with salaries below the median for their pay unit and occupation report lower pay and job satisfaction, while those earning above the median report no higher satisfaction. Likewise, below-median earners report a significant increase in the likelihood of looking for a new job, while above-median earners are unaffected. Our findings indicate that utility depends directly on relative pay comparisons, and that this relationship is non-linear.","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130569404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fatal Attraction? Access to Early Retirement and Mortality","authors":"A. Kuhn, Jean-Philippe Wuellrich, J. Zweimüller","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1669912","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1669912","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate the causal effect of early retirement on mortality for blue-collar workers. To overcome the problem of endogenous selection, we exploit an exogenous change in unemployment insurance rules in Austria that allowed workers in eligible regions to withdraw from the workforce up to 3.5 years earlier than those in non-eligible regions. For males, instrumental-variable estimates show a significant 2.4 percentage points (about 13%) increase in the probability of dying before age 67. We do not find any adverse effect of early retirement on mortality for females. Death causes indicate a significantly higher incidence of cardiovascular disorders among eligible workers, suggesting that changes in health-related behavior explain increased mortality among male early retirees.","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117153246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Intra-Household Resource Allocation: Do Parents Reduce or Reinforce Child Cognitive Ability Gaps?","authors":"P. Frijters, D. Johnston, M. Shah, M. Shields","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1667777","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1667777","url":null,"abstract":"Do parents invest more or less in their high ability children? We provide new evidence on this question by comparing observed ability differences and observed investment differences between siblings in the NLSY. To overcome endogeneity issues we use sibling differences in handedness as an instrument for cognitive ability differences, since handedness is a strong determinant of cognitive ability. We find that parents invest more in high ability children, with a one standard deviation increase in child cognitive ability increasing parental investments by approximately one-third of a standard deviation. Consequently, differences in child cognitive ability are enhanced by differential parental investments. This finding has important implications for education policy.","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134474555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
P. Budsaratragoon, Suntharee Lhaopadchan, D. Hillier
{"title":"Institutional Shareholder Activism and Limited Investor Attention","authors":"P. Budsaratragoon, Suntharee Lhaopadchan, D. Hillier","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1671868","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1671868","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate whether limited investor attention is a factor in the effectiveness of institutional shareholder activism. Prior research has shown that an inability of market participants to allocate sufficient intellectual effort to the investment decision can have an impact on market price and volume behavior. We extend this research in an applied setting by considering the effectiveness of the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) focus list, whose aim is to improve the performance and corporate governance of target firms. We find that the share price and volume response to being included in the focus list is a function of the investor attention in a stock, which in turn has an impact on the subsequent managerial response. This suggests that when attention is a scarce cognitive resource, the proactive exploitation of news signals can be an efficient activism strategy.","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128944725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Racial Inequality in the 21st Century: The Declining Significance of Discrimination","authors":"Roland G. Fryer","doi":"10.1016/S0169-7218(11)02408-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-7218(11)02408-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"140 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126134608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Households’ Portfolio Structure in Germany - Analysis of Financial Accounts Data 1959-2009","authors":"Fred Ramb, Michael Scharnagl","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1646344","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1646344","url":null,"abstract":"Based on a Financial Almost Ideal Demand System (FAIDS), this paper investigates the wealth structure of German households. The long-run wealth elasticities and interestrate elasticities were calculated using a unique new quarterly financial accounts macrodata set which covers the period from 1959 to 2009 and contains a portfolio of eight different financial assets. Descriptive analysis shows that all financial assets were characterized by substantial volatility of their weight in the portfolio of households. We found that portfolio shifts in the long run are determined significantly by changes in interest rates. The estimated model provides evidence that currency (and transferable deposits) is mainly a substitute for other assets and time deposits are typically a complement. Wealth elasticity is for most assets around unity. JEL Classification: E21, G11, C32","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132693451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Human Judgement is Heavy Tailed: Empirical Evidence and Implications for the Aggregation of Estimates and Forecasts","authors":"Miguel Sousa Lobo, Dai Yao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1638811","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1638811","url":null,"abstract":"How frequent are large disagreements in human judgment? The substantial literature relating to expert assessments of real-valued quantities and their aggregation almost universally assumes that errors follow a jointly normal distribution. We investigate this question empirically using 17 datasets that include over 20,000 estimates and forecasts. We findnd incontrovertible evidence for excess kurtosis, that is, of fat tails. Despite the diversity of the analyzed datasets as regards to the degree of uncertainty about the quantity being assessed and to the level of expertise and sophistication of those making the assessments, we find consistency in the frequency with which an expert is in large disagreement with the consensus. Fitting a generalized normal distribution to the data, we find values for the shape parameter ranging from 1 to 1.6 (where 1 is the double-exponential distribution, and 2 the normal distribution). This has important implications, in particular for the aggregation of expert estimates and forecasts. We describe optimal Bayesian aggregation with heavy tails, and propose a simple average-median average heuristic that performs well for the range of empirically observed distributions.","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127283049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ali Hortaçsu, Gregor Matvos, C. Syverson, S. Venkataraman
{"title":"Are Consumers Affected by Durable Goods Makers&Apos; Financial Distress? The Case of Auto Manufacturers","authors":"Ali Hortaçsu, Gregor Matvos, C. Syverson, S. Venkataraman","doi":"10.3386/W16197","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W16197","url":null,"abstract":"The financial decisions of durable goods makers can impose spillovers on their consumers. Namely, durable goods provide a consumption stream that frequently depends on services provided by the manufacturer (e.g., warranties, parts, and maintenance). Manufacturer bankruptcy, or even the possibility thereof, threatens this service provision and can substantially reduce the value of its products to their current owners. We test this hypothesis in one of the largest durable goods markets, automobiles, using data on millions of used cars sold at wholesale auctions around the U.S. during 2006-8. We find that an increase in an auto manufacturer's financial distress results in a contemporaneous drop in the prices of its cars at auction, controlling for a host of other influences on price. The estimated effects are statistically and economically significant. Furthermore, cars with longer expected service lives (those within manufacturer warranty, having lower mileage, or in better condition) see larger price declines than those with shorter remaining lives. These patterns do not seem to be driven solely by reduced demand from auto dealers affiliated with the troubled manufacturers or by contemporaneous declines in new car prices. Our estimates imply a potentially large indirect cost of financial distress on car manufacturers.","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131449614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}