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The Gambler's Fallacy Fallacy Fallacy (Commentary on Xiang et al., 2025). 《赌徒谬论》（注：向等人，2025）。
IF 5.4 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2026-11-04 DOI: 10.1177/09567976261490829
Daniel Banki, Uri Simonsohn
{"title":"The Gambler's Fallacy Fallacy Fallacy (Commentary on Xiang et al., 2025).","authors":"Daniel Banki, Uri Simonsohn","doi":"10.1177/09567976261490829","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09567976261490829","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Xiang et al. concluded that the gambler's fallacy does not originate in biased beliefs. Reanalyzing their data, we arrived at the opposite conclusion. We show, more generally, that their main analysis-examining whether the median belief is biased-is not diagnostic of the presence of the gambler's fallacy, whereas our test of the share of probability estimates for the streak ending above or below 50% is diagnostic. We also report results from a new study in which at least 80% of gambler's-fallacy predictions originated in biased beliefs.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"9567976261490829"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149335030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Face-Matching Lineups: A Method to Control Mistaken Identifications in Video Evidence. 人脸匹配队列：一种控制视频证据错误识别的方法。
IF 5.4 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2026-11-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-07 DOI: 10.1177/09567976261487962
Camryn N Yuen, Daniel M Bernstein, Andrew M Smith, Rebecca C Ying, Ryan J Fitzgerald
{"title":"Face-Matching Lineups: A Method to Control Mistaken Identifications in Video Evidence.","authors":"Camryn N Yuen, Daniel M Bernstein, Andrew M Smith, Rebecca C Ying, Ryan J Fitzgerald","doi":"10.1177/09567976261487962","DOIUrl":"10.1177/09567976261487962","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>When crime is caught on video, suspects can be identified by matching their faces to the perpetrator in the footage. However, errors in face-matching decisions have led to wrongful arrests. We tested face-matching in a nonprofessional student sample from a Canadian university (<i>N</i> = 905) with one-to-one comparisons and lineups. On the basis of findings in the eyewitness identification literature, we hypothesized that if face-matching lineups were fair and included known-innocent fillers (i.e., nonsuspects), they would control the error rate on trials with innocent suspects and increase the accuracy of suspect \"match\" responses. This hypothesis was supported. However, the accuracy of suspect-nonmatch responses was greater for one-to-one comparisons than for lineups. Additionally, we found that applying wisdom-of-crowd approaches to multiple independent decisions could eliminate errors in both match and nonmatch responses. Whether to control face-matching errors with lineups, with the wisdom-of-crowds, or with both depends on practical considerations.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"762-773"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13724122/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149128343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does Global Slowing Explain Age Effects in Inhibitory Control? 全球变缓能解释抑制控制的年龄效应吗？
IF 5.4 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2026-11-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-14 DOI: 10.1177/09567976261479660
Jacob Sellers, Han Zhang, John Jonides, Taraz G Lee
{"title":"Does Global Slowing Explain Age Effects in Inhibitory Control?","authors":"Jacob Sellers, Han Zhang, John Jonides, Taraz G Lee","doi":"10.1177/09567976261479660","DOIUrl":"10.1177/09567976261479660","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A long-standing debate in the study of cognitive aging centers around the issue of whether aging results in a selective deficit in inhibitory control beyond general slowing of cognitive processing. Previous studies have obtained mixed findings, in part because the typical free-response-time paradigm lacks the specificity required to disentangle component processes underlying inhibitory control. Here, we apply a forced-response paradigm and computational model to test whether aging results in overall speed differences or a selective deficit in inhibitory control. Across two experiments, over 200 older adults and younger adults completed a forced-response arrow-flanker task. We found strong evidence that older adults demonstrate a global slowing of processing without any selective deficit in inhibitory control in this task. Furthermore, we demonstrate that global slowing is sufficient to explain the mixed findings in previous free-response-time studies. Overall, these results argue against a selective inhibitory-control deficit in older adults.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"791-807"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149184079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Artists Can Design Memory, and AI Can Predict It. 艺术家可以设计记忆，人工智能可以预测记忆。
IF 5.4 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2026-11-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-13 DOI: 10.1177/09567976261483544
Trent M Davis, Yifei E Chen, Wilma A Bainbridge
{"title":"Artists Can Design Memory, and AI Can Predict It.","authors":"Trent M Davis, Yifei E Chen, Wilma A Bainbridge","doi":"10.1177/09567976261483544","DOIUrl":"10.1177/09567976261483544","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Can artists deliberately design artworks to be remembered-or forgotten? Across three experiments, we tested whether visual-memory outcomes can be shaped through artistic design and how they are predicted by artists, laypeople, and artificial intelligence. We launched a nationwide art contest in which artists submitted works intended to be memorable or forgettable. Using recognition tasks with adults based in the United States (119 from Amazon Mechanical Turk, 892 from Prolific, and 62 visitors from a Chicago gallery), we found that artists achieved their intended memory outcomes. However, their success was asymmetric: Memorability was more readily increased than reduced. A neural network, ResMem, consistently outperformed human observers and artists in predicting which artworks would be remembered. Data-driven analyses identified psychologically interpretable features that explained nearly half the variance in memory and aligned with ResMem's predictions, but not with human judgments. Together, findings suggest that visual memorability can be engineered by humans, though asymmetrically, and is better captured by computational models.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"774-790"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149184054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do Children Who Develop Faster Go on to Age Faster in Midlife? 发育快的孩子中年时衰老快吗？
IF 5.4 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2026-11-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-07 DOI: 10.1177/09567976261483545
J Kathy Xie, Avshalom Caspi, Kathleen Mullan Harris, Allison E Aiello, HonaLee Harrington, Renate Houts, Christopher Kositzke, Daniel W Belsky, Laurel Raffington, Jay Belsky, Sandhya Ramrakha, Reremoana F Theodore, Terrie E Moffitt
{"title":"Do Children Who Develop Faster Go on to Age Faster in Midlife?","authors":"J Kathy Xie, Avshalom Caspi, Kathleen Mullan Harris, Allison E Aiello, HonaLee Harrington, Renate Houts, Christopher Kositzke, Daniel W Belsky, Laurel Raffington, Jay Belsky, Sandhya Ramrakha, Reremoana F Theodore, Terrie E Moffitt","doi":"10.1177/09567976261483545","DOIUrl":"10.1177/09567976261483545","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We quantified the association between rate of child development and pace of midlife aging in the Dunedin Study and the Add Health Study. Physical development was quantified in Dunedin participants (<i>N</i> = 1,037; age 45) using a composite comprised of (1) birth weight for gestational age, (2) toddler weight gain, (3) timing of behavioral milestones, (4) adiposity-rebound age, (5) timing of adolescent growth spurt, and (6) tempo of adolescent growth spurt. Social development was quantified using the Vineland Social Maturity Scale. Multi-organ-system (cardiovascular, metabolic, renal, immune, dental, pulmonary) longitudinal biological aging was used as the adult outcome. Fast physical development in childhood was associated with faster midlife aging. This was replicated in Add Health (<i>N</i> = 1,537; age range = 33-44 years), where girls who menstruated earlier had faster midlife aging. By contrast, faster social development in childhood was associated with slower midlife aging. Findings contribute initial empirical evidence characterizing the link between child-development rate and adult aging in humans.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"747-761"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149128403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Serial or Parallel? Sublexical Scanpath Analysis of Eye-movement Sequences in Single Word Reading. 串行还是并行？单字阅读中眼动序列的亚词汇扫描分析。
IF 5.4 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2026-11-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-22 DOI: 10.1177/09567976261488750
Hend Lahoud, Adi Shechter, Titus von der Malsburg, David L Share
{"title":"Serial or Parallel? Sublexical Scanpath Analysis of Eye-movement Sequences in Single Word Reading.","authors":"Hend Lahoud, Adi Shechter, Titus von der Malsburg, David L Share","doi":"10.1177/09567976261488750","DOIUrl":"10.1177/09567976261488750","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Are the letters of a written word processed sequentially or in parallel? Despite an abundance of research on visual word recognition, the evidence in this longstanding debate rests almost entirely on indirect inferences from word-length effects and conventional whole-word eye-movement measures. We sought direct evidence on the serial-parallel question by investigating sublexical gaze-fixation sequences-so-called <i>scanpaths</i>. This study is the first to apply scanpath analysis to fixation sequences within single words. Thirty-four Hebrew-speaking adult university students read aloud three-letter and five-letter real words and pseudowords while their eye movements were tracked. As expected, real words showed more parallel processing, whereas pseudowords displayed more sequential, letter-by-letter scanpaths. Surprisingly, longer words tended to elicit serial processing regardless of word familiarity. Our findings support the applicability of scanpath analysis in visual word recognition and its potential to open up new perspectives on word-recognition processes.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"808-823"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13724121/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149246264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Context Matters, Doesn't It? The Role of Context in Everyday Emotion Regulation Strategy Use. 语境很重要，不是吗？情境在日常情绪调节策略使用中的作用。
IF 5.4 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2026-10-29 DOI: 10.1177/09567976261470400
Anh Tran, Rachel Freeman-Robinson, Peter Koval, Katharine H Greenaway, Elise K Kalokerinos
{"title":"Context Matters, Doesn't It? The Role of Context in Everyday Emotion Regulation Strategy Use.","authors":"Anh Tran, Rachel Freeman-Robinson, Peter Koval, Katharine H Greenaway, Elise K Kalokerinos","doi":"10.1177/09567976261470400","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09567976261470400","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A common maxim holds that \"context is everything.\" This perspective transformed the field of emotion regulation, which evolved from understanding <i>which</i> regulation strategies people use, to understanding <i>how</i> strategy use varies by context (i.e., strategy-situation fit). Theoretical accounts suggest contextual features are crucial in guiding strategy use. However, empirical evidence is isolated in piecemeal studies with inconclusive results. To comprehensively explore context-dependent emotion regulation, we need data on emotion regulation across many contexts, at scale. Combining up to 11 experience-sampling data sets collected from Belgian and Australian samples in an integrative analysis (<i>N<sub>ID</sub></i> = 500-1,696, <i>N<sub>observations</sub></i> = 27,023-101,114, <i>M</i><sub>age</sub> = 25.38 years, 71% women), we examined how regulation-strategy use varies as a function of three theory-derived contextual features-<i>intensity</i>, <i>controllability</i>, and <i>social features</i> (i.e., the presence and closeness of others). We found limited support that context matters for daily emotion-regulation strategy use. Our study provides a well-powered foundational step to test a theory central to emotion-regulation research and highlights the complexity of capturing strategy-situation fit in daily life.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"9567976261470400"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149300107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Commentary on Alister et al. (2025): Individual Differences or Unsystematic Noise? 评Alister et al.(2025)：个体差异还是非系统噪音？
IF 5.4 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2026-10-07 DOI: 10.1177/09567976261485960
Peter Shepherdson
{"title":"Commentary on Alister et al. (2025): Individual Differences or Unsystematic Noise?","authors":"Peter Shepherdson","doi":"10.1177/09567976261485960","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09567976261485960","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Alister et al. (2025) reported individual differences in the extent to which people find source-dependent and source-independent claims persuasive, but an exploratory analysis showed no discernible relationship between these individual differences and demographic variables such as age, education, politics, and social-media use. Here I show through simulations that the individual-difference patterns Alister et al. identified are largely consistent with random across-trial variation in the absence of underlying differences between individuals. This casts doubt on the strength of their evidence for individual differences and provides one plausible account of why their exploratory analyses did not yield systematic relationships.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"9567976261485960"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149128393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Disillusionment With Meritocracy During the Transition to Adulthood: Longitudinal Change in Belief Systems and Depression in China. 成人期对精英统治的幻灭：信仰体系的纵向变化与中国的抑郁。
IF 5.4 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-09-23 DOI: 10.1177/09567976261479675
Shuming Fan, Oliver P John, Filip De Fruyt
{"title":"Disillusionment With Meritocracy During the Transition to Adulthood: Longitudinal Change in Belief Systems and Depression in China.","authors":"Shuming Fan, Oliver P John, Filip De Fruyt","doi":"10.1177/09567976261479675","DOIUrl":"10.1177/09567976261479675","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><i>Meritocracy</i>-the belief that individual effort rather than structural advantages drives success-has long shaped societal narratives but now faces growing skepticism. Using four waves of China Family Panel Studies, we examined changes in meritocratic and nonmeritocratic beliefs among 524 participants from early adolescence (ages 10-13 in 2012) to emerging adulthood (ages 18-21 in 2020) and assessed their concurrent associations with depression trajectories. Meritocratic beliefs declined significantly in both college (<i>d</i> = -0.56) and noncollege (<i>d</i> = -0.30) groups. Only college students increased in nonmeritocratic beliefs (<i>d</i> = 0.72), and these changes were associated with steeper increases in depression. College students' recognition of structural barriers to success is associated with heightened psychological costs, although causality cannot be inferred.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"671-684"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149031288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Better Together? Facial Expressions as a Mechanism Shaping Enjoyment During Shared Experience. 更好的在一起吗?面部表情作为共享体验中形成享受的机制。
IF 5.4 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-09-22 DOI: 10.1177/09567976261470401
Argaman Bell Meir, Liron Amihai, Daniel Toledano, Inbal Ravreby, Yaara Yeshurun
{"title":"Better Together? Facial Expressions as a Mechanism Shaping Enjoyment During Shared Experience.","authors":"Argaman Bell Meir, Liron Amihai, Daniel Toledano, Inbal Ravreby, Yaara Yeshurun","doi":"10.1177/09567976261470401","DOIUrl":"10.1177/09567976261470401","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We explored the impact of shared experiences on enjoyment, focusing on the role of facial expressions. Participants (<i>N</i> = 190, aged 18-35, recruited in Israel) listened to humorous audio clips with a friend or alone, while their facial expressions were recorded via Zoom. Our primary analysis showed that friend presence influenced enjoyment in a content-dependent way, enhancing enjoyment for knock-knock jokes and reducing it for stand-up. Across both types of humor, friend presence amplified the intensity of happy facial expressions. Complementing these findings, a post hoc mediation analysis revealed that these happy expressions partially accounted for shared experiences' effect on enjoyment, suggesting they are a key mechanism linking social context to affective responses. Friends also exhibited facial-expression synchronization, reflecting communicative responsiveness to one another. Notably, these effects were reduced when participants could not see each other. These findings suggest that facial expressions actively shape enjoyment during shared experiences, offering insight into how people connect and experience the world together.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"705-720"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13646512/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149025935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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