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Rethinking the Role of Teams and Training in Geopolitical Forecasting: The Effect of Uncontrolled Method Variance on Statistical Conclusions.
IF 4.8 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1177/09567976241266481
Clifford E Hauenstein, Rick P Thomas, David A Illingworth, Michael R Dougherty
{"title":"Rethinking the Role of Teams and Training in Geopolitical Forecasting: The Effect of Uncontrolled Method Variance on Statistical Conclusions.","authors":"Clifford E Hauenstein, Rick P Thomas, David A Illingworth, Michael R Dougherty","doi":"10.1177/09567976241266481","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09567976241266481","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Using data from a geopolitical forecasting tournament, Mellers et al. (2014) [Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament. <i>Psychological Science, 25</i>, 1106-1115] concluded that forecasting ability was improved by allowing participants to work in teams and providing them with probability training. Here, we reevaluated Mellers et al.'s conclusions using an item response theory framework that models latent ability from forecasting choices. We found that the relationship between latent ability estimates and forecast accuracy differed from the interpretation of the original findings once key extraneous variables were statistically controlled. The best fit models across the first 2 years of the tournament included one or more extraneous variables that substantially eliminated, reduced, and, in some cases, even reversed the effects of the experimental manipulations of teaming and training on latent forecasting ability. We also show that latent traits associated with strategic responding can discriminate between superforecasters and non-superforecasters, making it difficult to identify the latent factors that underlie the superforecasters' superior performance.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"9567976241266481"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142780464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Differences Between Lifelong Singles and Ever-Partnered Individuals in Big Five Personality Traits and Life Satisfaction. 终生单身者与曾经有伴侣者在大五人格特质和生活满意度方面的差异。
IF 4.8 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1177/09567976241286865
Julia Stern, Michael D Krämer, Alexander Schumacher, Geoff MacDonald, David Richter
{"title":"Differences Between Lifelong Singles and Ever-Partnered Individuals in Big Five Personality Traits and Life Satisfaction.","authors":"Julia Stern, Michael D Krämer, Alexander Schumacher, Geoff MacDonald, David Richter","doi":"10.1177/09567976241286865","DOIUrl":"10.1177/09567976241286865","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Being romantically partnered is widely seen as a societal norm, and it has been shown to be positively associated with important life outcomes, such as physical and mental health. However, the percentage of singles is steadily increasing, with more people staying single for life. We used the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE; <i>N</i> = 77,064, mainly ≥ 50 years, 27 countries) to investigate Big Five personality traits and life satisfaction in lifelong singles compared with ever-partnered individuals. Specification-curve analyses suggested that lifelong singles were less extraverted, less conscientious, less open to experiences (dependent on singlehood definition), and less satisfied with their lives. Effects were stronger for never-partnered than for never-cohabitating or never-married individuals and were partly moderated by gender, age, country-level singlehood, and gender ratio. Our study provides insights into the characteristics of lifelong singles and has implications for understanding mental health and structures of social support in older individuals.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"1364-1381"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142693467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Gaze Behavior Reveals Expectations of Potential Scene Changes. 注视行为揭示了对潜在场景变化的预期。
IF 4.8 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1177/09567976241279198
Nicolas Roth, Jasper McLaughlin, Klaus Obermayer, Martin Rolfs
{"title":"Gaze Behavior Reveals Expectations of Potential Scene Changes.","authors":"Nicolas Roth, Jasper McLaughlin, Klaus Obermayer, Martin Rolfs","doi":"10.1177/09567976241279198","DOIUrl":"10.1177/09567976241279198","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Even if the scene before our eyes remains static for some time, we might explore it differently compared with how we examine static images, which are commonly used in studies on visual attention. Here we show experimentally that the top-down expectation of changes in natural scenes causes clearly distinguishable gaze behavior for visually identical scenes. We present free-viewing eye-tracking data of 20 healthy adults on a new video dataset of natural scenes, each mapped for its potential for change (PfC) in independent ratings. Observers looking at frozen videos looked significantly more often at the parts of the scene with a high PfC compared with static images, with substantially higher interobserver coherence. This viewing difference peaked right before a potential movement onset. Established concepts like object animacy or salience alone could not explain this finding. Images thus conceal experience-based expectations that affect gaze behavior in the potentially dynamic real world.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"1350-1363"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142682571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Narrative Identity, Traits, and Trajectories of Depression and Well-Being: A 9-Year Longitudinal Study. 叙事身份、特质以及抑郁和幸福的轨迹：九年纵向研究
IF 4.8 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1177/09567976241296512
Majse Lind, Sebnem Ture, Dan P McAdams, Henry R Cowan
{"title":"Narrative Identity, Traits, and Trajectories of Depression and Well-Being: A 9-Year Longitudinal Study.","authors":"Majse Lind, Sebnem Ture, Dan P McAdams, Henry R Cowan","doi":"10.1177/09567976241296512","DOIUrl":"10.1177/09567976241296512","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Mental health and well-being tend to improve with age, and personality differences affect these trajectories. Although it is well established that dispositional traits, such as extraversion and neuroticism, relate to well-being, the incremental validity of other important personality constructs, such as narrative identity, remains unknown. Across 9 years, 157 late-midlife adults (<i>M</i><sub>age</sub> = 56.4 years, <i>SD</i> = 0.96) self-reported their well-being and symptoms of depression each year and wrote an annual narrative account describing their greatest life challenge (<i>N</i><sub>challenges</sub> = 1,211). The narrative accounts were content-coded for themes of agency and communion. Results showed that themes of agency and communion in narrative identity were significantly and uniquely associated with well-being and depression across time, over and above the effects of traits. The benefits of considering both narrative identity and dispositional personality traits as they jointly apply to mental health are discussed.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"1325-1339"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142688678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Why Do Children Think Words Are Mutually Exclusive? 为什么孩子们认为词语是相互排斥的？
IF 4.8 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1177/09567976241287732
Gabor Brody, Roman Feiman, Athulya Aravind
{"title":"Why Do Children Think Words Are Mutually Exclusive?","authors":"Gabor Brody, Roman Feiman, Athulya Aravind","doi":"10.1177/09567976241287732","DOIUrl":"10.1177/09567976241287732","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>How do children learn what a word means when its uses are consistent with many possible meanings? One influential idea is that children rely on an inductive bias that ensures that novel words get assigned distinct meanings from known words-<i>mutual exclusivity</i>. Here, we explore the possibility that mutual-exclusivity phenomena do not reflect a bias but rather information encoded in the message. Learners might effectively be told when (and when not) to assume that word meanings are mutually exclusive. In three experiments (<i>N</i> = 106 from across the United States; ages 2 years, 0 months-2 years, 11 months), we show that 2-year-olds only assumed that novel words have distinct meanings if the words were spoken with <i>focus</i>, an information-structural marker of contrast. Without focus, we found no mutual exclusivity; novel words were understood to label familiar objects. These results provide a novel account of mutual exclusivity and demonstrate an early emerging understanding of focus and information structure.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"1315-1324"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142682574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is Mansplaining Gendered? The Effects of Unsolicited, Generic, and Prescriptive Advice on U.S. Women. 男人的抱怨有性别倾向吗？未经请求的通用性和指令性建议对美国女性的影响》。
IF 4.8 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1177/09567976241268630
Erik Santoro, Hazel Rose Markus
{"title":"Is Mansplaining Gendered? The Effects of Unsolicited, Generic, and Prescriptive Advice on U.S. Women.","authors":"Erik Santoro, Hazel Rose Markus","doi":"10.1177/09567976241268630","DOIUrl":"10.1177/09567976241268630","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In light of popular accounts in the United States of \"mansplaining,\" we investigated the effects on women when others give them \"unresponsive\" advice (i.e., unsolicited, generic, and prescriptive recommendations). We show using both vignettes (Study 1) and live interactions (Study 2) that unresponsive advice (vs. responsive questions) from men negatively affected women's self-perceptions, leaving them feeling less respected, powerful, and trusting and having a smaller size of self. The advice giver's gender did not moderate these self-perception outcomes (Study 3), although women anticipated greater stereotype threat only when men, and not when women, gave them unresponsive advice. Similar effects were found using responsive advice instead of questions as the comparison condition (Study 4). Overall, these findings (<i>N</i> = 4,394 U.S. adult women) suggest that it is the unresponsive nature of advice-and for certain outcomes the advice giver's gender-that explain its effects on women. They point to the value of a responsive suggestion or question during conversations, particularly during cross-gender ones.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"1395-1415"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142710919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Affect Misattribution Procedure Revisited: An Informational Account. 重新审视情感错误归因程序：信息说明。
IF 4.8 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1177/09567976241287735
Nicolas Pillaud, François Ric
{"title":"The Affect Misattribution Procedure Revisited: An Informational Account.","authors":"Nicolas Pillaud, François Ric","doi":"10.1177/09567976241287735","DOIUrl":"10.1177/09567976241287735","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The aim of this research was to test an informational explanation of the effects observed in the affect misattribution procedure (AMP). According to this explanation, participants performing the AMP would simplify the task by asking whether the target is pleasant (yes vs. no) and would use the affective information provided by the prime to answer the question (positive = <i>yes</i>, negative = <i>no</i>). In line with this proposition, we observed in three preregistered experiments that slightly modifying the response options proposed in the task moderated the effect, which can be canceled (Experiment 1) and even reversed (Experiments 2 and 3). These results are consistent with the informational explanation and seem difficult to explain by the operation of misattribution processes.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"1340-1349"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142688590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Well-Being Costs of Informal Caregiving. 非正规护理的幸福成本。
IF 4.8 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1177/09567976241279203
Michael D Krämer, Wiebke Bleidorn
{"title":"The Well-Being Costs of Informal Caregiving.","authors":"Michael D Krämer, Wiebke Bleidorn","doi":"10.1177/09567976241279203","DOIUrl":"10.1177/09567976241279203","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>How does informal care affect caregivers' well-being? Theories and existing research provide conflicting answers to this question, partly because the temporal processes and conditions under which different aspects of well-being are affected are unknown. Here, we used longitudinal data from Dutch, German, and Australian representative panels (281,884 observations, 28,663 caregivers) to examine theoretically derived hypotheses about changes in caregivers' life satisfaction, affective experiences, depression/anxiety, and loneliness. Overall, results provided evidence for negative well-being effects after the transition into a caregiver role, with more pronounced and longer-lasting well-being losses in women than in men. We further found that well-being losses were larger with more time spent on caregiving, in both men and women. These results were robust across moderators of the caregiving context (care tasks, relationship with care recipient, and full-time employment). Together, the present findings support predictions of stress theory and highlight lingering questions in theoretical frameworks of care-related well-being costs.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"1382-1394"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142710921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Gender Differences in Climbing up the Ladder: Why Experience Closes the Ambition Gender Gap. 攀登高峰时的性别差异：为什么经验会缩小性别之间的野心差距？
IF 4.8 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1177/09567976241266778
Kristina A Wald, Mabel Abraham, Brian Pike, Adam D Galinsky
{"title":"Gender Differences in Climbing up the Ladder: Why Experience Closes the Ambition Gender Gap.","authors":"Kristina A Wald, Mabel Abraham, Brian Pike, Adam D Galinsky","doi":"10.1177/09567976241266778","DOIUrl":"10.1177/09567976241266778","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Women are unequally represented in the highest positions in society. Beyond discrimination and bias, women are missing from the top because they are less likely to pursue high-ranking opportunities. We propose that experience is a critical moderator of gender differences in pursuing leadership opportunities, with low-experience women being particularly unlikely to seek higher level positions. We used field analyses of 96 years of U.S. senator and governor elections to examine male and female politicians' propensity to run for higher political offices. As predicted, among those with little political experience, women were less likely than men to run for higher office, but experience closed this gender gap. A preregistered experiment among U.S.-based adults replicated the field findings and revealed that it was the increased self-confidence of experienced women that reduced the gender gap. The findings suggest experience, and the self-confidence that comes with it, is one lever for closing the gender gap in seeking to climb professional hierarchies.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"1287-1307"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142401088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Susceptibility to Attentional Capture by Target-Matching Distractors Predicts High Visual Working Memory Capacity. 易受目标匹配干扰物的注意力捕获影响可预测高视觉工作记忆能力
IF 5.4 1区 心理学
Psychological Science Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1177/09567976241279520
Chupeng Zhong, Zhe Qu, Nan Yang, Mingze Sun, Yajie Wang, Yulong Ding
{"title":"Susceptibility to Attentional Capture by Target-Matching Distractors Predicts High Visual Working Memory Capacity.","authors":"Chupeng Zhong, Zhe Qu, Nan Yang, Mingze Sun, Yajie Wang, Yulong Ding","doi":"10.1177/09567976241279520","DOIUrl":"10.1177/09567976241279520","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Recent event-related potential (ERP) studies showed that individuals with low visual working memory (VWM) capacity are more susceptible to salience-driven attentional capture than high-capacity individuals are, with the latter being able to proactively suppress salient but irrelevant distractors. However, it remains unclear whether and how contingent attentional capture by distractors that possess a task-relevant (target) feature is related to VWM capacity. Here, we adopted a central focused-attention task that contained peripheral target-matching distractors to investigate this issue (<i>N</i> = 51 adults). Surprisingly, we revealed that target-matching distractors elicited both a larger N2-posterior-contralateral (N2pc) and a larger post-N2pc distractor positivity (P<sub>D</sub>) component in high-capacity individuals than in low-capacity ones, meaning that high-capacity individuals are less able to ignore such distractors initially, though they could call on a stronger reactive suppression mechanism afterward. These findings illustrate that high-capacity individuals are more (rather than less or equally) susceptible to contingent attention capture compared with low-capacity ones.</p>","PeriodicalId":20745,"journal":{"name":"Psychological Science","volume":" ","pages":"1203-1216"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142473226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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