{"title":"Reconsidering Equity Issue Performance: A Focused Criticism of the Fama-French Factor Models","authors":"Tim Loughran","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3907523","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3907523","url":null,"abstract":"The Fama and French (2015) 5-factor model is commonly used to measure the performance of stock return portfolios. Importantly, we find that three of the Fama and French (2015) firm-level characteristics (i.e., size, BV/MV, and profitability) have no significant explanatory power in the cross-section of returns for companies above the median NYSE capitalization during 1963-2020. Small firms comprising less than 8% of the total market capitalization drive the patterns of the 5-factor model. This paper also reexamines equity issuer performance in the context of the 5-factor firm level characteristics and finds that small and large issuers have similar underperformance.","PeriodicalId":202880,"journal":{"name":"Research Methods & Methodology in Accounting eJournal","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123417001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Measuring information in analyst reports: A machine learning approach","authors":"Charles Martineau, M. Zoican","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3925176","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3925176","url":null,"abstract":"How to quantify the informational content of analyst reports? In this short methodological paper, we propose a measure of information contribution (IC), defined in the spirit of Shapley values. We use natural language processing to identify topics for over 90,000 analyst reports for S&P 500 stocks between January 2018 to May 2020. Next, we build the IC measure as the average cosine distance between the topic distribution for a particular report and any subset of competitor reports. A first preliminary finding is that the informational content of reports in \"crowded stocks\" is 41% lower than for reports in low-coverage stocks. Second, team-authored reports are 36% more informative than individual reports and women-authored reports are 12% more informative than men-authored reports.","PeriodicalId":202880,"journal":{"name":"Research Methods & Methodology in Accounting eJournal","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131325667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Audit Firm and Audit Partner Style in Non-Big 4 Firms","authors":"Matthew Baugh, Lauren Matkaluk, Ally Zimmerman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3775111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3775111","url":null,"abstract":"We examine Big 4 and non-Big 4 auditor styles and the effect of Big 4 style through individual audit partners on financial statement comparability. Our study has four principal findings: One, we find the existence of a unified Big 4 style, distinct from any individual Big 4 firm style, leading to increased comparability for pairs of clients with Big 4 auditors. Two, we find that this unified Big 4 style persists in audits conducted by non-Big 4 partners with former Big 4 experience. Three, we find that annually inspected non-Big 4 firms have their own firm-level styles, but do not find evidence of individual triennially inspected non-Big 4 firm styles affecting financial statement comparability. Four, we find evidence that the unified Big 4 style effect on non-Big 4 clients with a former Big 4 partner is partially offset by the individual firm style of annually inspected non-Big 4 firms. In further cross-sectional tests, consistent with our expectations, we find that the unified Big 4 style effect through former Big 4 experienced auditors is stronger for pairs of partners that left the Big 4 firm around the same time. Our results provide novel evidence on the ways in which auditors foster financial statement comparability apart from the firm’s unique audit methodologies and accounting standard interpretations.","PeriodicalId":202880,"journal":{"name":"Research Methods & Methodology in Accounting eJournal","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130437294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Peter Easton, Martin M. Kapons, S. Monahan, H. Schütt, Eric Weisbrod
{"title":"Forecasting Earnings Using k-Nearest Neighbors","authors":"Peter Easton, Martin M. Kapons, S. Monahan, H. Schütt, Eric Weisbrod","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3752238","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3752238","url":null,"abstract":"We use a simple k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) model to forecast a subject firm’s annual earnings by matching its recent earnings history to earnings histories of comparable firms, and then extrapolating the forecast from the comparable firms’ lead earnings. Out-of-sample forecasts generated by our model are more accurate than forecasts generated by the random walk; more complicated k-NN models; the matching approach developed by Blouin, Core, and Guay (2010); and popular regression models. These results are robust. Our model’s superiority holds for different error metrics, for firms that are followed by analysts and firms that are not, and for different forecast horizons. Our model also generates a novel ex ante indicator of forecast inaccuracy. This indicator, which equals the interquartile range of the comparable firms’ lead earnings, is reliable and useful. It predicts forecast accuracy and it identifies situations when our forecasts are strong (weak) predictors of future stock returns.","PeriodicalId":202880,"journal":{"name":"Research Methods & Methodology in Accounting eJournal","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123825940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Test of Income Smoothing Using Pseudo Fiscal Years","authors":"Dirk E. Black, Spencer R. Pierce, W. Thomas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3026235","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3026235","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of our study is to further understand managerial incentives that affect the volatility of reported earnings. Prior research suggests that the volatility of fourth-quarter earnings may be affected by the integral approach to accounting (i.e., “settling up” of accrual estimation errors in the first three quarters of the fiscal year) or earnings management to meet certain reporting objectives (e.g., analyst forecasts). We suggest that another factor affecting fourth-quarter earnings is managers’ intentional smoothing of fiscal-year earnings. For each firm, we create pseudo-year earnings using four consecutive quarters other than the four quarters of the reported fiscal year. We then compare the earnings volatility of pseudo years to the earnings volatility of the firm’s own reported fiscal year. We find evidence consistent with fourth-quarter accruals reflecting managerial incentives to smooth fiscal-year earnings. This conclusion is validated by several cross-sectional tests, the pattern in quarterly cash flows and accruals, and several robustness tests. Overall, we contribute to the literature exploring alternative explanations for the differential volatility of fiscal-year and fourth-quarter earnings. This paper was accepted by Brian Bushee, accounting.","PeriodicalId":202880,"journal":{"name":"Research Methods & Methodology in Accounting eJournal","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123895681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Usefulness of Earnings Announcements and Other News: Evidence from the Impact of Peer Information on IPO Price Revision","authors":"Xiaoxu Ling, I. Zhang, Yong Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3860628","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3860628","url":null,"abstract":"We study the relative usefulness of earnings announcements for valuation from the perspective of information externalities–the use of peer information in IPO pricing. The relative usefulness of an information source for peer valuation is a function of both the amount and the per-unit usefulness of the information. While prior research suggests that a firm’s earnings announcements supply a modest amount of incremental information, we find the per-unit usefulness of peer earnings announcements to be higher than other news in IPO pricing. Specifically, using stock returns around (outside) earnings announcements to capture earnings (other) information (e.g., Ball and Shivakumar 2008), we find that a 1-percent change in peer valuation caused by earnings announcements results in approximately 60 percent larger IPO price revisions than a 1-percent change in peer valuation caused by other information. High accounting comparability and reporting quality of peer firms further improve the per-unit usefulness of peer earnings announcements. IPO issuers also avoid setting their offering dates to immediately precede peer earnings announcements, suggesting that these are important information events.","PeriodicalId":202880,"journal":{"name":"Research Methods & Methodology in Accounting eJournal","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121682759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Overview of Indian Tax Information Exchange Agreements","authors":"B. Nayaka","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3801742","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3801742","url":null,"abstract":"Tax information exchange agreements are getting prominent importance in the globalized world; they are playing a pivotal role in the elimination of tax evasion, which is a very big problem for developing countries like India to tackle the problem of tax evasion and tax avoidance. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has implemented an an instrument called Tax Information Exchange Agreements (TIEAs) to promote international cooperation in tax matters through exchange of information and also to counter harmful tax practices. The countries which are facing the problem of tax evasion by the tax payers i.e., who are shifting their incomes to tax heavens, this problem can be reduced to a greater extent by negotiating more and more tax information exchange agreements. Keeping all the above said factors in mind this paper mainly aims to analyze the recent developments in exchange of Tax Information between India and other countries. The paper brings about the important features of Indian tax information exchange agreements, Indian Network of tax information exchange agreements, Historical developments, Peer Review process, Steps in tax exchange of tax information and overall mechanism. The paper concludes that Tax Information Exchange Agreements are significant to tackle the problem of tax evasion and harmful tax practices in India, and there must be a sound policy of negotiating tax information exchange agreements with more number of tax heavens and countries.","PeriodicalId":202880,"journal":{"name":"Research Methods & Methodology in Accounting eJournal","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131726431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Dynamics of Concealment","authors":"J. Bertomeu, I. Marinovic, S. Terry, Felipe Varas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3791893","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3791893","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Firm managers likely have more information than outsiders. If managers strategically conceal information, market uncertainty will increase. We develop a dynamic corporate disclosure model, estimating the model using the management earnings forecasts of US public companies. The model, based on the buildup of reputations by managers over time, matches key facts about forecast dynamics. We find that 80% of firms strategically manage information, that managers have superior information around half of the time, and that firms conceal information about 40% of the time. Concealment increases market uncertainty by just under 8%, a sizable information loss.","PeriodicalId":202880,"journal":{"name":"Research Methods & Methodology in Accounting eJournal","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114560422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. Datar, Apurv Jain, Charles C. Y. Wang, Siyu Zhang
{"title":"Is Accounting Useful for Forecasting GDP Growth? A Machine Learning Perspective","authors":"S. Datar, Apurv Jain, Charles C. Y. Wang, Siyu Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3827510","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3827510","url":null,"abstract":"We provide a comprehensive examination of whether, to what extent, and which accounting variables are useful for improving the predictive accuracy of GDP growth forecasts. We leverage statistical models that accommodate a broad set of (341) variables---outnumbering the total time-series observations---and apply machine learning techniques to train, validate, and test the prediction models. For near-term (current and next-quarter) GDP growth, accounting does not improve the out-of-sample accuracy of predictions because the professional forecasters' predictions are relatively efficient. Accounting's predictive usefulness increases for more distant-term (three- and four-quarters-ahead) GDP growth forecasts: they contribute more to the model's predictions; moreover, their inclusion increases the model's out-of-sample predictive accuracy by 13 to 46%. Overall, four categories of accounting variables---relating to profits, accrual estimates (e.g., loan loss provisions or write-offs), capital raises or distributions, and capital allocation decisions (e.g., investments)---are most informative of the longer-term outlook of the economy.","PeriodicalId":202880,"journal":{"name":"Research Methods & Methodology in Accounting eJournal","volume":"138 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133827286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Forensic Analytics Using Cluster Analysis: Detecting Anomalies in Data","authors":"Clarence Goh, B. Lee, Gary S. C. Pan, P. Seow","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3760210","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3760210","url":null,"abstract":"Cluster analysis is a data analytics technique that can help forensic accountants effectively detect anomalies in complex financial datasets. This article provides a description of clustering analysis, discusses how it can be implemented to detect anomalies in data, and illustrates its use through a worked example using the Tableau software.","PeriodicalId":202880,"journal":{"name":"Research Methods & Methodology in Accounting eJournal","volume":"100 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124835834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}