{"title":"Why is Dollar Debt Cheaper? Evidence from Peru","authors":"Bryan Gutiérrez, V. Ivashina, Juliana Salomao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3599475","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3599475","url":null,"abstract":"In emerging markets, a significant share of corporate loans are denominated in dollars. Using novel data that enables us to see currency and the cost of credit, in addition to several other transaction-level characteristics, we re-examine the reasons behind dollar credit popularity. We find that a dollar-denominated loan has an interest rate that is 2% lower per year than a loan in Peruvian Soles. Expectations of exchange rate movements do not explain this difference. We show that this interest rate differential for lending rates is closely matched by the differential in the deposit market. Our results suggest that the preference for dollar loans is rooted on the local household preference for dollar savings and a banking sector that is closely matching its foreign assets and liabilities. We find that borrower competitive pressure increases the pass-through of this differential.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127755561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Liquidity Analysis of UAE Banks","authors":"M. Ibrahim","doi":"10.32861/ijefr.65.82.86","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32861/ijefr.65.82.86","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to analyze the liquidity levels of various banks in the UAE for the period 2005-2009. To understand the behavior of liquidity indicators especially during the financial crisis, the researcher will analyze the four liquidity indicators over the years 2005 to 2009. The findings highlight how the banks in question have been impacted by the 2007-2008 crisis. This can most obviously be seen in the notable decline of each of the banks liquidity level in 2009. The effect of loans to total assets, loans to customers’ deposit, and investment to total assets ratios for the five banks was most notable in 2009. Two liquidity ratios were analyzed in order to determine the banks’ ability to honor its debt obligations, these being loans to total assets and loans to customers respectively. The third ratio was the total equity to total assets to assess the liquidity level in the capital structure, while the fourth ratio was the investment to total assets to measure the managing of liquidity. While Bank liquidity was affected by the crisis, bank performance remained relatively stable, as measured by coefficient of variation, since these banks were able to yield more control over cash flows in comparison to revenues and costs.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125513639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kasilingam Lingaraja, M. Selvam, Ramanujam Veluchamy, Chinnadurai Kathiravan
{"title":"Stock Market Movements and Linkages between Emerging Markets in Asia and Developed Market Indices: Short Run and Long Run Analysis","authors":"Kasilingam Lingaraja, M. Selvam, Ramanujam Veluchamy, Chinnadurai Kathiravan","doi":"10.31838/jcr.07.07.111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31838/jcr.07.07.111","url":null,"abstract":"This research paper investigates the stock market movements and linkages between the Asian emerging markets (China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand) and two developed markets (i.e. USA and Japan). This study employs the statistical application of descriptive statistics, unit root test, correlation and pairwise granger causality test. The study used daily data from 01st January, 2005 to 31st December, 2014, to examine both short-run (year wise) and long-run (whole study period) movements and linkages between Asian emerging stock markets and two developed stock markets. The presence of short-run relationship and absence of a strong long-run relationship, among these markets, were found. The short run (year wise) and long run movements and linkages have important implications for investors, risk managers and regulators. It is found that Indian stock market experienced less movements with developed markets (USA and JAPAN). This study also suggested that India's stock market is largely protected from global events i.e., 2007-2008. The sample stock markets of these eight countries of Asian emerging markets provide attractive diversification opportunities, for international portfolio investors during the long run period. All the eight countries of Asian emerging markets provide attractive diversification opportunities for international portfolio investors, over a long period.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130474201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Politico-Economic Dynamics of China’s Growth","authors":"Yikai Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3573984","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3573984","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 China’s rapid growth has been driven by policy reforms that significantly reduce market frictions. Policy reforms are determined by the government according to its own politico-economic considerations. This paper embeds these politico-economic considerations in a macro model of China to endogenously study government policies, market frictions, and economic growth. In the model, an elite runs the government and maximizes its own incomes, facing a political constraint: getting enough supporters. The government provides high enough incomes to state workers in order to gain their support. It also controls capital allocations in the state and the private sector to balance between keeping enough supporters and extracting more taxes from the private sector. These policies initially generate rapid growth accompanied by declining labor and capital market frictions but in the long run, keep the frictions persistent, which are harmful to growth. The calibrated model can quantitatively account for salient aspects of China’s recent development and provide predictions for future dynamics.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"168 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114375504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Анализ новых подходов к формированию предикторов финансово-экономических кризисов на основе показателей финансовых рынков (Analysis of New Approaches to the Formation of Predictors of Financial and Economic Crises Based on Indicators of Financial Markets)","authors":"Yury Danilov, D. Pivovarov, I. Davydov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3650029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3650029","url":null,"abstract":"The paper presents the results of the analysis of indicators whose behavior as crisis predictors is actively discussed at the present time. The paper analyzes reasons for the failure of the crisis predictors of the previous generation, which showed their failure in 2007 - 2008. Indices of financial conditions, yield spreads of US treasury bonds, Schiller's ratio, financial cycle indicators, VIX (“fear index”), risk premiums and some other indicators from the “new crisis predictor” family are examined in detail. It was shown that all these indicators are aimed at finding an answer to the question about the time of the beginning of the next crisis, while other parameters of a possible crisis (where, in which country and in which sector of the economy should the crisis begin to be expected; what exactly can happen, which of vulnerabilities have the highest chance of being realized) attract much less attention. Moreover, economic risks are not among the most dangerous risks from the point of view of international financial organizations. We conducted an analysis of the behavior of the proposed crisis predictors on retrospective data, as a result of which we formed their sequence in terms of signaling before the crisis, as well as the influence of external predictors on indicators of Russian economic dynamics and the state of the financial market. It was concluded that along with external shocks, internal factors are of great importance for the start of Russian recessions, on the basis of which the Russian financial conditions index was proposed, which showed good predictor properties. Hypotheses were also formulated about the reasons for the later entry of the Russian economy into the crisis of 2007-2009. and higher volatility of economic dynamics in Russia.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133253544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"COVID-19 Outbreak: Is It a Health Crisis or Economic Crisis or Both? Case of African Counties","authors":"Jacob Joseph Kassema","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3559200","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3559200","url":null,"abstract":"In this explorative study paper, you will learn about the COVID-19 its origin and how it’s started until it spread around the globe. You will also learn what are the precaution measures to consider if the virus already spread in your country or territory, how other countries have succeed to fight against it as well as the world-wide coverage of COVID-19 outbreak. However, COVID-19 critical impacts have been pointed out and explained in detailed the way it affect societies, communities, companies and organizations as well as public sectors. You will learn how and which technology can help to fight against COVID-19 as well as other diseases which are of the same nature. And as a conclusion, you will learn how countries should be prepared for the crisis like this for future sustainable development and economic growth.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"116 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117231650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Global and Local Currency Effects on Euro Area Investment in Emerging Market Bonds","authors":"Martijn Adriaan Boermans, J. Burger","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3556419","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3556419","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze how global and local factors affect portfolio allocation by euro area investors in emerging markets at the bond-level. First, cross-sectional analysis reveals a strong preference for home (Euro) currency bonds. Second, panel regressions, whether at the bond or aggregate flows level, consistently identify trade-weighted US dollar fluctuations as the most robust explanatory variable, in sharp contrast to other global factors, such as the VIX and Fed or ECB monetary policy, which have much less impact on reallocations to emerging market bonds. Our results are consistent with the notion that broad US dollar movements act as a barometer for global risk appetite, but with an important caveat: Throughout our analysis we find holdings in Euro-denominated bonds are less sensitive to global factors, which we interpret as further evidence of a home currency bias.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123464449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Russian Industrial Sector in January 2020","authors":"S. Tsukhlo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3555004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3555004","url":null,"abstract":"Downward trend in demand curbs growth of industrial output. At the same time, plans and projections of enterprises still remain optimistic. In the context of personnel shortage businesses put out considerable efforts aimed at keeping their workers and plan to increase employment.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123906815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Effect of Sovereign Debt on Economic Growth: The Case of Oil-rich Countries","authors":"H. Salameh","doi":"10.32479/ijefi.9120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.9120","url":null,"abstract":"Key studies have identified the need to study the role of sovereign debt on economic growth, particularly in relation to countries with heavily oil-based status economies. This paper applies a panel vector autoregressive approach to examine the impact of sovereign debt on economic prosperity in several oil-rich countries between 2002 and 2017. The results show that in oil countries, like other developing countries, government debt has not had a positive impact on enhancing economic growth, resulting in a reluctance of such countries to invest debts in production, and a desire for the type of diversification of sources of income observable in most advanced countries.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114197171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Viktoriia Koilo, L. Ryabushka, T. Kubakh, Jaroslav Halik
{"title":"Assessment of Government Debt Security of Emerging Markets: Theory and Practice","authors":"Viktoriia Koilo, L. Ryabushka, T. Kubakh, Jaroslav Halik","doi":"10.21511/imfi.17(1).2020.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21511/imfi.17(1).2020.04","url":null,"abstract":"This study came to inspect a new approach to the government debt security assessment based on the systematization of indicators in terms of four directions: solvency, liquidity, domestic indebtedness, and external indebtedness. The proposed methodology considers the weaknesses, which negatively affect the level of government debt security. It was established that in 2014−2016 the level of security at emerging markets was the worst. The main reason was insufficient solvency. Also, the obtained results showed that the general assessment of domestic indebtedness in recent years had a more dangerous level than the external one. In addition, it was revealed that similar problems with the level of debt burden are also presented in the EU countries since the value of the analyzed indicator – general government debt to GDP – exceeds 60%. It is recommended to consider the experience of debt management reform of new members of the EU and, at the same time, post-socialist countries by other emerging economies.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125835153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}