ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Financial Stress and Effect on Real Economy: The Turkish Experience","authors":"Yusuf Yildirim, Anirban Sanyal","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3918132","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3918132","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we aim to analyze empirically how economic activity reacts to the financial stress shocks depending on the stress regime in Turkey. Using quarterly data, the effect of financial stress is examined using two threshold vector autoregression model (TVAR) for consumption, investment and real GDP by using financial stress index, credit growth and inflation rate as endogenous variables. The paper proposes local projection approach for estimating threshold VAR model as robustness check to overcome the data limitations. The main result of this paper is that the effect of financial stress on consumption, investment, and real GDP, such as magnitude and significance, vary greatly depending on the financial stress regime. The paper finds that financial stress is found to affect economic growth when the stress level is already high. This corroborates with the effectiveness of credit channel in the financial friction mechanism. On the contrary, the financial stress does not affect real economic activities to significantly during low stress regime. The effect of financial stress impairs consumption and investment growth during high stress regime which leads to slow down of economic activities.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129143281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Venezuela Informe de Coyuntura Económica (Junio, 2021) Economic Situation Report Venezuela (June, 2021)","authors":"Luis Zambrano Sequín, M. A. Moreno, Daniel Lahoud, J. Guevara, Demetrio Marotta, Santiago Sosa, María Gabriela Ponce, Mariño González, Rui Alleyne","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3872973","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3872973","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Spanish abstract:</b>En este informe se muestra la evolución reciente y proyectada de los principales agregados macroeconómicos que caracterizan a la economía venezolana, en el contexto de un escenario más complicado que el de períodos anteriores a causa de los efectos de COVID-19, que se agregan los desequilibrios preexistentes. En el informe se evalúan y proyectan los agregados macroeconómicos asumiendo que no hay cambios significativos en la formulación y ejecución de la actual política económica. En la presente edición, además, se incorporan nuevas secciones que tratan separadamente los temas referidos a la economía real, la economía informal, la política de transferencias de ingreso monetario y la situación de Venezuela en el contexto mundial de control y erradicación de la pandemia.<br><br><b>English abstract:</b> This report shows the recent and projected evolution of the main macroeconomic aggregates that characterize the Venezuelan economy, in the context of a more complicated scenario than in previous periods due to the effects of COVID-19, in addition to imbalances pre-existing. The report evaluates and projects the macroeconomic aggregates assuming that there are no significant changes in the formulation and execution of current economic policy. In this edition new sections are incorporated that deal separately with issues related to the real economy, the informal economy, the policy of monetary income transfers and the situation of Venezuela in the global context of control and eradication of the pandemic.<br>","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132642615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"FDI, Stock Market Development and Institutional Quality: An African Perspective","authors":"P. Makoni","doi":"10.5430/ijfr.v12n5p141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v12n5p141","url":null,"abstract":"This paper empirically sought to establish the existence of relationships between foreign direct investment, stock market development and institutional quality, respectively. The study adopted a multiple regression analysis, using a panel of nine African countries between 2009 and 2016. Using the random effects model, we find that the relationship between foreign direct investment and stock market development is positive and statistically significant. On the other hand, institutional quality reflected a negative effect on FDI inflows, implying that countries with low quality institutions would struggle to attract inward FDI. The policy implications are that host countries’ policy makers should eliminate or reduce any practices that deter foreign direct investments, such as capital controls and risk of expropriation (institutions), while simultaneously improving the domestic financial infrastructure and related regulations.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121817193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effect of Technology in Shaping the Indian Banking Sector","authors":"Sagarika Aggarwal, K. Chowdhury, tejas raj","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3758776","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3758776","url":null,"abstract":"Technology by far has one of the most profound impacts on development of human lives. Banking industry is growing rapidly with the use of various technologies like ATMs, on-line banking, Telephone banking, Mobile banking etc., plastic cards are some of the banking products that cater to the needs of the retail segment and have seen its number grow exponentially in recent years. Researchers have tried to analyse the said impact it has had. The expectation was that an increase in adoption of technology led to an increase in GDP, either because of the convenience of cashless modes of payment or volume of withdrawals/deposits at ATMs and many more.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"450 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116180295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"NPCI: Chartering a Payment Freeway","authors":"G. Ramesh, Anand Jangid, Lewin Sivamalai, Aishwarya Bharathi Rebelly","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3760921","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3760921","url":null,"abstract":"The National Payment Corporation of India (NPCI) has grown ten times in just one decade and it is well on its way to its target of 100 mn transaction per day. It started as a joint initiative of Reserve Bank of India and Indian Bank’s Association (IBA) with an ambition to become the “best payments network globally” and with a mission to touch “every Indian with one or other payment services”. It is in all segments of B2B, B2C, B2G, P2P, B2B, G2P and has been playing the role of backbone to India’s payment system. It has some universally successful products and services like UPI, BHIM, NACH, etc. The achievement of NPCI is commendable in that they are in FinTech World operating on not for profit basis. Its robustness got tested comprehensively when lockdown for covid was announced in March. It responded quickly to the challenges lockdown and social distancing, and used this to introduce rapid changes in technology.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116037485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Robustness Can Change the Desirability of Speed Limit Policy","authors":"Kohei Hasui","doi":"10.1111/SJPE.12268","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/SJPE.12268","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates a robust monetary policy under speed limit policy when a central bank fears model misspecification. We show that the persistence of the output gap becomes small with the robust speed limit policy. The low persistence of the output gap contributes to mitigating the variance of the output gap. Also, with a robust policy, social losses are lower under the speed limit policy than under precommitment. Our results suggest that adding the growth of the output gap to the central bank’s objectives is effective when the worst-case scenario is realized.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"87 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127135844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effect of Facilitating Conditions on Intentions and Actions towards Digital Banking Adoption: A Multivariate Analysis","authors":"Nayanajith D.A. Gayan, D. Dissanayake, R. Weerasiri","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3862477","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3862477","url":null,"abstract":"This research examines the significance of facilitating conditions towards intentions and actions of digital banking adoption in the context of Sri Lankan commercial banks. The sample was drawn from the students of the University of Kelaniya, who possess digital banking facilities. Duly completed questionnaires totalling 268 were considered for data analysis. Unified theory and theory of reasoned action have been adopted and dimensions of the variables were measured by a five-point Likert scale. MANOVA, ANOVA with contrast tests and discriminant function analysis were also used as analysis tools. Empirical evidence supported the hypotheses indicating the significance of facilitating conditions whilst specifying the importance of organizational infrastructure, in particular. Restrained sample selection and following only the quantitative method where limitation of the present study. Nevertheless, finding of the particular importance of organizational infrastructure comprising of institutional structure, practices, processes that significantly affect acceptance of innovative digital advancements by customers, would be beneficial in uplifting the status of digital banking adoption in Sri Lanka amidst the prevalence of the Covid 19 pandemic. Multivariate analysis and incorporation of related models/variables would contribute to the originality of the study. Similarly, future researches could be performed in different contexts viz. country, culture and etc. by integrating interrelated models and variables that elaborate usage and acceptance of innovative technology in view of novel findings.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123942894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Política Monetaria Expansiva: Efectos sobre márgenes, tasas de interés y subsidios crediticios (Effects on Financial Wedges, Interest Rates, and Credit Subsidies)","authors":"Sergio Clavijo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3727503","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3727503","url":null,"abstract":"Spanish Abstract: Este documento analiza la gran expansion monetaria global del periodo 2008-2020 y su impacto sobre los margenes financieros, las tasas de interes y el papel de los subsidios de caracter financiero, con especial atencion al caso de Bancoldex. En la primera seccion se dimensionan los efectos de las hojas de balance de los bancos centrales, su “activismosectorial” en ese soporte financiero y la concomitante expansion fiscal. En la segunda seccion concluimos que todo ello esta teniendo importantes cambios en la operacion monetaria y generando drasticas caidas en las tasas de interes nominales y reales, sin que hasta el momento ello haya generado rebrotes inflacionarios. \u0000 \u0000Pero este descenso en las tasas de interes (2008-2021) arriesga con: i) generar nuevos ambientes de “represion financiera internacional”; ii) contraccion de los margenes financieros bancarios en medio de mayores exigencias de liquidez y capital por cuenta de Basilea III; y iii) eventual perdida de eficacia en el otorgamiento de subsidios en tasas de interes, dado sus bajos niveles de 0%-0.5% anual en terminos reales, pero esto sera de caracter temporal. \u0000 \u0000Por ultimo, aqui se presentan los resultados de aplicar a Colombia un modelo de Regla de Taylor para avizorar la posible trayectoria de la tasa-repo del BR que comanda la estructura de todas las tasas de interes. Bajo pandemia (2020-2021), la repo estara cayendo -250 pbs hacia 1.75%, equivalente a 0%-0.5% real anual. Durante la recuperacion de 2021-2022, la inflacion estara repuntando de forma moderada y ello requerira que la repo del BR regrese hacia el 3% (+125 pbs), pero la repo-real continuara sin mayores alteraciones en ese rango 0%-0.5%, lo cual debe. \u0000 \u0000English Abstract: This document analyses the global monetary expansion experienced over the period 2008-2020 and its impact on financial wedges, interest rates, and credit subsidies, with particular attention to the credit strategy of Bancoldex (Colombia´s development bank). \u0000 \u0000First, we dimension the counter cyclical effects of Central Banks’ balance-sheet expansion on interest rates, their “sectorial activism”, and the concomitant fiscal expansion resulting from Covid-pandemic, reinforcing the on-going trend inherited from the financial crises posLehman. The current interest rates decline represents monetary challenges in several areas including:: i) new “financial repression”; ii) financial wedges contraction at a time in which commercial banks face additional liquidity and solvency requirements due to Basle III regulations; and iii) larger credit right-offs resulting from increasing non-performing-loans. \u0000 \u0000Secondly, we assess recent trends in nominal and real interest rates in Colombia and present projections based on a Taylor-Rule model. After declining 250 bps during 2020, we project the repo rate of Colombia to settle at 1.75% for the next 12-18 months, equivalent to a zero real repo-rate. However, as a result of the real-GDP recovery to 4% in 2021","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124107613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Russian Economic Development Assistance in 2019","authors":"Y. Zaytsev, A. Knobel","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3717930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3717930","url":null,"abstract":"In 2019, the Government of the Russian Federation raised allocations for official development assistance (ODA). Its volume exceeded Rb1 trillion. However, real volume of Russian economic assistance is larger than OECD statistical data show, they do not take into account intergovernmental fiscal transfers and assistance to self-styled states. The largest proportion (61.2%) of Russian assistance was provided on a bilateral basis. Moreover, Armenia, Kirgizia, and Tajikistan apart from bilateral projects receive Russian assistance through mechanisms of international organizations. Finally, the volume of writing-off by Russia of debt commitments totaled nearly $425 mn last year.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128959761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prospects of Islamic Microfinance: A Study in India","authors":"Humaira Mahmood, Rusni Hassan, S. Salman","doi":"10.20474/jabs-6.5.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20474/jabs-6.5.2","url":null,"abstract":"India being a developing economy is one of the emerging markets in the world. But an obstacle that still stands in its way of development is the scarcity of financial/monetary resources required for sustainable investments. The giants of Microfinance in India are known to be charging high rates and the smaller players follow in their footsteps. For such regions, Interest-free microfinance is what is needed to uplift the minority and take them out of the fangs of poverty. Interest-free microfinance and its implementation can prove to be very useful in eradicating poverty and providing sustainable development of micro-enterprises and the expansion of financial inclusion. Thus, the aim of this study is to examine the prospects of Islamic microfinance in India. The quantitative method is employed, and primary data is collected through a questionnaire. The probability sampling method is used. Out of 500 questionnaires disbursed, 303 are received. The result of the questionnaire shows that majority of the public believes Islamic Microfinance Institions (IMFIs) will aid the poor financially, poverty will be alleviated, it will be beneficial to the society, and will help micro SMEs become more developed. Similarly, majority of the respondents also agreed to IMFIs being ethical, meant for all religions, catering to the needs of the society and help to extend loans without collaterals. This reflects that Islamic Microfinance holds great potential and prospects and will be widely accepted by the public and also the Indian market. Policymakers should consider IMFIs, establish guidelines and promulgate them as this can pave way to a financially more stable India. The limitation of the study is that the outreach was among people with access to the internet. Therefore, perception of those in rural areas, people with no internet and education could not be included. Hence, future research will fulfill this lacuna.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121092875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}