ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"The COVID-19 Impact: Evidence from Emerging Markets","authors":"Rwan El-Khatib, Anis Samet","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3685013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3685013","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting global markets through unprecedented circumstances Fears surrounding such novel virus has led to dramatic market turbulence and massive tumbles in stock prices In this paper, we explore the impact of COVID-19 on a comprehensive sample of 45 emerging countries We track the performance of each of the markets during the outbreak using its major stock index and we compute the volatilities using a GARCH (1,1) model Moreover, we report conventional and Islamic bond issuances and assess investors' perceptions towards credit risk by examining the premiums on sovereign credit default swaps We then compare the results to the global financial crisis period We find that indeed COVID-19 has harshly struck the emerging countries driving sharp declines in stock market indices, causing an escalation in volatility levels, and widening the premiums on sovereign credit default swaps However, such upheavals did not yet reach the global financial crisis levels We finally examine the reactions of the IMF and local governments and central banks in response to such crisis","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130482380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bank Cleanups, Capitalization and Lending: Evidence from India","authors":"Yakshup Chopra, K. Subramanian, Prasanna Tantri","doi":"10.1093/rfs/hhaa119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa119","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the Indian bank asset quality review, which doubled the declared loan delinquency rate. Relative economic stability during the exercise and the absence of a capital backstop together make it unique. We find that the expected reduction in information asymmetry does not automatically lead to the recapitalization of banks by markets. The consequent undercapitalization leads to underinvestment and risk-shifting through zombie lending. The impact flows to the real economy through borrowers, including shadow banks, and adversely impacts growth. These findings show that bank cleanup exercises not accompanied by policies aimed at recapitalization may be insufficient even during normal times.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"109 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131926593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Who Bears Risk in China's Non-financial Enterprise Debt?","authors":"Ronald W. Anderson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3665573","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3665573","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses of how risk is allocated in China's markets for debt issued by non-financial enterprises. Compared to other major corporate bond markets China's is unusual in that unlisted, state-owned enterprises account for a large fraction of the debt issued and that the foundations of the corporate and bankruptcy law are young and still evolving. The implications of these features are described and quantified. The results show that the major changes in relative pricing across different market segments cannot be explained well by standard measures of solvency and liquidity. Rather, the most successful explanation is that major policy actions have had the effect of withdrawing implicit guarantees from private issuers and making more explicit the limits of guarantees afforded to state issuers. <br>","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"318 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124498260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stock Market Valuation and Output Growth in India","authors":"K. Dhananjaya","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3645358","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3645358","url":null,"abstract":"The paper examines the relationship between stock market valuation and output growth at the firm level. Specifically, it aims at understanding the impact of firms’ stock market valuation and stock liquidity on the growth of real output. The sample for the study includes panel data of Indian public limited manufacturing firms. The study covers the period from March 2004 to March 2017. Firms with at least two consecutive years of data have been included in the sample. The full sample includes firm-year observations of 877 firms. The finding shows that both stock market valuation and turnover ratio have a significant positive impact on the growth of output, even after controlling for other important determinants of output. Further, both stock market variables and bank credit significantly influence the growth of output. This suggests that banks and stock market provide complementary financial services required for the growth and the development of the stock market will not undermine the role of the institution based financial system.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127539569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of COVID-19 on Performance of Pakistan Stock Exchange","authors":"S. Ahmed","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3643316","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3643316","url":null,"abstract":"The objective of this study is to determine the impact of COVID-19 on the performance of Pakistani Stock Market. This study uses the data of COVID-19 related positive cases, fatalities, recovers and the closing prices of PSX 100 index of the first half of 2020. The findings of the study suggest that only COVID-19 recoveries are influencing the performance of the index and the daily positive cases and fatalities are insignificantly related to the performance. Further studies can be performed by incorporating other variables such as economic growth, interest rate and inflation rate along with the COVID-19 related variables at a cross-country level.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126973177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Stagnant Export Upgrading in Northeast China: Evidence from Value‐Added Tax Reform","authors":"Yan Du, Mengkai Yang, Jing Li, Yunong Li","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12341","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12341","url":null,"abstract":"China's 2004 value‐added tax (VAT) pilot reform in the Northeast region, which changed the VAT from production type to consumption type, introduced a sizable tax credit for fixed investment in manufacturing industries, leading to more investment and higher productivity at firm level. This paper, however, uses difference‐in‐difference estimation and finds a negative structural effect; that is, the VAT pilot reform leads to a reduction in the export sophistication of Northeast cities relative to other cities in China, and the results hold for a battery of robustness checks. It is found that resources are reallocated towards less‐sophisticated industries. As the products with higher export sophistication are more skill and research and development (R&amp;D) intensive, the shortfalls of skilled labor and R&amp;D spending hinder the upgrading process. With a new round of revitalization plans in the Northeast, policymakers should be cautious with similar structural effects and focus on increasing skilled labor supply and R&amp;D investment.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"87 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"119703810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of COVID-19 in Indian Economy – An Empirical Study","authors":"D. Das, Shalini Patnaik","doi":"10.34218/IJEET.11.3.2020.023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34218/IJEET.11.3.2020.023","url":null,"abstract":"The present pandemic situation has adverse deep impact on Indian business Domestically, the impact of the corona virus pandemic COVID-19 could lead to slowdown in domestic demand This will result in erosion of purchasing power due to job losses or pay cuts and slow-down effect of deferred demand will have a longerlasting impact on different sectors, especially where demand is discretionary in nature India's real GDP depleted to its bottom in over six years during 4Q 2019-20 India's growth for next year 2020-21 is forecasted in between of 5 3% to 5 7% The COVID-19, or coronavirus, pandemic has revealed many weaknesses in the global system Despite our accumulated experience in crisis management, this virus has been able to isolate us all in our homes COVID-19 has caused severe disruption for the Indian economy The current corona virus pandemic could lead to a four per cent permanent loss to real Indian gross domestic product (GDP) It is estimated for India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate to 1 9 per cent for 2020-21 This will be the lowest after India recorded growth rate at 1 1 per cent in 1991-92 The COVID 19 has disrupted major sectors, it's clearly evident that various sectors tourism & aviation, telecom, auto sector, transportation are most impacted sectors that are facing negative repercussion of the present disaster In the given situation, with all the retail sectors shutting down their business the livelihood of the workers are at optimum risk The Government of many countries has given support to the employers to pay salaries to their employees The present study is undertaken to study the impact of COVID 19 in various sectors considering the data which are secondary in nature, different appropriate statistical tools and techniques are applied for analysis and conclusion On the basis of finding recommendations are suggested to overcome these adverse situations © IAEME Publication","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127723218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bankalarda Pay Geri Alımı: Muhasebesi ve Finansal Performans Üzerindeki Etkileri Açısından Mevduat Bankaları Üzerine Bir İnceleme (Share Repurchase in Banks: An Examination upon Deposit Banks in Terms of Accounting and Effects on Financial Performance)","authors":"M. Kartal","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3625481","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3625481","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Turkish Abstract:</b> Türkiye’de yaşanan finansal dalgalanmalarla birlikte halka açık şirketlerin pay fiyatlarında ciddi düşüşler yaşanmıştır. Borsada oluşan fiyatın, finansal sonuçlarını yansıtmadığı gerekçesiyle ve ortakların korunması amacıyla aralarında bankaların da bulunduğu bazı halka açık şirketler pay geri alımı süreci başlattığını duyurmuştur. Bu çalışma, bankaların Türkiye ekonomisi açısından önemi dikkate alınarak, bankaların pay geri alım işlemlerinin muhasebesi ve finansal performans üzerindeki etkilerinin incelenmesi amacıyla hazırlanmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda, pay geri alımının dağıtılabilir kar ve özkaynak tutarlarını azalttığı ve yedek akçelerin geçmiş yıl karından ayrılmasının muhasebe ve raporlama açısından daha doğru olacağı belirlenmiştir. Pay geri alımı, bankalar tarafından dikkatlice kullanılması gereken bir araç olup, oluşturduğu etkiler nedeniyle bankaların pay geri alımı hususunda Bankacılık Düzenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu (BDDK) tarafından ikincil düzenleme yapılması önerilmektedir. <br><br><b>English Abstract: </b>With the financial fluctuation seen in Turkey, significant decreases in share prices of publicly traded companies were seen. Due to fact that share price in stock market do not reflect the financial results and in protecting shareholders, some publicly traded companies including banks announced that they initiated a share repurchase process. Taking into consideration importance of banks for Turkey economy, this study is prepared to examine accounting and impacts on financial performance of banks’ share repurchase transactions. As a result of the study, it is determined that distributable profit and shareholders' equity amounts decrease because of share repurchase and allocating retained earnings from previous year profit is more accurate in terms of accounting and reporting. Share repurchase is a tool that should be used carefully by the banks and it is recommended that the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA) make a secondary regulation on share repurchase due to its effects.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128448557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Economics of Cryptocurrencies - Why Does It Work?","authors":"Divij Kishore Jain","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3644159","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3644159","url":null,"abstract":"The impact of the introduction of cryptocurrencies in all economies are discussed here. The advantages of using cryptocurrencies as well as the drawbacks of traditional digital payments are covered. Cryptocurrency aimed to revolutionize the digital payments market; however, it does give rise to many questions as to its cost, reliability, and the future competition amongst the cryptocurrencies as well. In this paper, I try to answer the basic questions arising due to the introduction of cryptocurrencies, as well as the economic problems it presents.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132785854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Asymmetric Adjustment of Interest Rate Pass-Through from Central Bank’s Policy Rate to the Market Rate: Evidence from China","authors":"Chiu-Lan Chang, Fang MIng, Chung-Hua Shen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3599138","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3599138","url":null,"abstract":"The paper investigates from the policy rate to the market rates under the interest rate marketization of the People’s Bank of China (PBC) since 2014. The focus is on the pass-through of the PBC’s policy target rates pass-through to the market rates. Empirical results, on the daily basis of an error-correction model suggest that the long-run pass-through of the policy target rates pass-through to the interbank market rates are all significant. The pass-through of the policy target rates DR007 and Shibor07 to the market rates which are 7-day interbank pledged repo rate (R007) and 7-day interbank offered rate (Chibor07) are both complete and in a very short period of time. The results confirm that DR007 as the PBC’s policy target rate takes an important role in the Chinese interest rate pass-though.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"186 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126030834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}