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The Wealth of a Nation: Norways Road to Prosperity 《国家的财富:挪威的繁荣之路》
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-09-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3693699
Ola Grytten
{"title":"The Wealth of a Nation: Norways Road to Prosperity","authors":"Ola Grytten","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3693699","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3693699","url":null,"abstract":"The present paper discusses Norway’s way to prosperity during the two last centuries. The main reason for its wealth seems to have been the ability to meet international demand by utilizing its rich natural resources, adopting efficient technology, and draw on a skilled labor force in order to gain high productivity and profitability.<br><br>Historical national accounts reveal that Norway’s wealth was close to the western European average in the early nineteenth century. From the 1840s to the mid 1870s, Norwegian growth rates were very high, due to significant growth in foreign trade. This period was followed by relative stagnation until the 1890s, from when the country saw rapid industrialization on the basis of hydroelectricity.<br><br>After the two world wars Norway adopted a social democratic rule, with a high degree of economic planning, called the Nordic model. This has contributed to a large public sector and evenly distributed wealth and resources. The discovery of oil and gas on the Norwegian continental shelf marked a new era, when Norway experienced higher growth rates than most western economies. This has made it the country with the highest score in the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) during the two first decades of the 21st century.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123406456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 15
Media Sentiment on Monetary Policy: Determinants and Relevance for Inflation Expectations 媒体对货币政策的看法:通胀预期的决定因素和相关性
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-09-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3686904
Matthieu Picault, Julien Pinter, Thomas Renault
{"title":"Media Sentiment on Monetary Policy: Determinants and Relevance for Inflation Expectations","authors":"Matthieu Picault, Julien Pinter, Thomas Renault","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3686904","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3686904","url":null,"abstract":"We construct a new indicator to capture media sentiment about the European Central Bank monetary policy and its relevant environment by analyzing 25,000 articles from five major international newspapers. Using named entity recognition and part-of-speech tagging, we propose a methodology to dissociate the dissemination of the central bank's official communications from the media comments. The resulting -daily- index correlates with some -monthly- standard measures of economic sentiment but reveals idiosyncratic information on monetary policy. Analyzing the determinants of our index, we find that both press conference and inter-meeting communications of the president significantly affect media sentiment. We then show that, controlling for a large range of factors, daily changes in media sentiment have predictive power on financial markets’ inflation expectations.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"107 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129104891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Market Fragmentation and Contagion 市场分割与传染
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-08-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3669354
Rohit Rahi, Jean-Pierre Zigrand
{"title":"Market Fragmentation and Contagion","authors":"Rohit Rahi, Jean-Pierre Zigrand","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3669354","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3669354","url":null,"abstract":"We study the transmission of liquidity shocks from one sector of the economy to other sectors in a general equilibrium model with multiple trading venues connected by profit-seeking arbitrageurs. Arbitrageurs effectively provide liquidity to investors by inter-mediating trades between venues. The welfare impact on venue k of a liquidity shock on venue l can go in either direction, depending on whether inter-mediated trades on k behave as complements or substitutes for such trades on l. In addition to this direct effect through the arbitrage network, there is a feedback effect of an adverse shock reducing liquidity and arbitrageur profits, which leads to a lower level of inter-mediation, further reducing liquidity. We illustrate this contagion with examples of high-frequency trading in equity markets, shocks to one tranche of a collateralized debt obligation impacting investors in the other tranches, carry trade crashes, shocks to cross-country bank lending following the global financial crisis, and the bursting of the Japanese bubble in the early 1990s.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128194304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Future of EU Differentiated Integration: The Tax Microcosm 欧盟差别化一体化的未来:税收微观世界
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-07-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3659322
Maria Kendrick
{"title":"The Future of EU Differentiated Integration: The Tax Microcosm","authors":"Maria Kendrick","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3659322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3659322","url":null,"abstract":"The EU’s path of integration sees it adopt harmonizing agendas in many areas of EU law. As they touch on areas of Member State sovereignty, these agendas are proving difficult to achieve, either without significant reform, or at all. As a consequence, the future development of EU law in the direction of continued integration is not certain. Differentiated integration may be the viable alternative. The research question this article therefore seeks to answer is: how far should harmonization go in the EU? In answering this question, the adoption of a case study methodology allows for generalizing from a specific example to the wider EU trajectory. Tax embodies the tensions between Member State sovereignty and EU law harmonizing agendas, and in the context of the imperative to harmonize caused by the digitization of the economy, it is a microcosm. The tax microcosm demonstrates that there are limits to how far harmonization can go in the EU, and that the future will likely see more differentiated integration.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"81 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132482032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Flow of Information Among Authorities Involved in the Banking Union’s Resolution Procedure: The Case of the SRB and the ECB 参与银行业联盟处置程序的当局之间的信息流动:SRB和欧洲央行的案例
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-07-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3647246
Pier Mario Lupinu
{"title":"The Flow of Information Among Authorities Involved in the Banking Union’s Resolution Procedure: The Case of the SRB and the ECB","authors":"Pier Mario Lupinu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3647246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3647246","url":null,"abstract":"The flow of information is vital for the smooth functioning and certainty of the successful outcome of a resolution procedure during resolution planning and execution. As a result, the exchange of relevant information has become highly influential in current debates. This article will focus on the exchange of information between the Single Resolution Board (SRB) and the European Central Bank (ECB).<br><br>Firstly, the Authorities decided to arrange the rules for sharing information bilaterally in the form of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). While this framework of cooperation and exchange of information between the SRB and the ECB constitutes an obligation under Article 30(7) of the Single Resolution Mechanism Regulation (SRMR), it was drafted in the non-binding form of an MoU. The general purpose of an MoU is to establish the basis for cooperation and convergence of intentions. Such foundations aim to strengthen the resolution procedure by joining forces to obtain more accurate and complete data with better coordination of tasks and resources in order to achieve the most solid result possible within a tighter timeframe.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121628352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Too Similar to Combine? On Negative Weights in Forecast Combination 太相似而不能合并?预测组合中的负权问题
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3647603
P. Radchenko, A. Vasnev, Wendung Wang
{"title":"Too Similar to Combine? On Negative Weights in Forecast Combination","authors":"P. Radchenko, A. Vasnev, Wendung Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3647603","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3647603","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper provides the first thorough investigation of the negative weights that can emerge when combining forecasts. The usual practice in the literature is to consider only convex combinations and ignore or trim negative weights, i.e., set them to zero. This default strategy has its merits, but it is not optimal. We study the problem from various angles, and the main conclusion is that negative weights emerge when highly correlated forecasts with similar variances are combined. In this situation, the estimated weights have large variances, and trimming reduces the variance of the weights and improves the combined forecast. The threshold of zero is arbitrary and can be improved. We propose an optimal trimming threshold, i.e., an additional tuning parameter to improve forecasting performance. The effects of optimal trimming are demonstrated in simulations. In the empirical example using the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters, we find that the new strategy performs exceptionally well and can deliver improvements of more than 10% for inflation, up to 20% for GDP growth, and more than 20% for unemployment forecasts relative to the equal-weight benchmark.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127795661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
The Dangerous Utopia of the ECB's Cancellation of Public Debts 欧洲央行取消公共债务的危险乌托邦
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-06-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3667668
Eric Pichet
{"title":"The Dangerous Utopia of the ECB's Cancellation of Public Debts","authors":"Eric Pichet","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3667668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3667668","url":null,"abstract":"The main result of the quick reactions of the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) to the Covid-19 crisis are that more than 20% of their public debt is now held by these central banks and that the balance sheet of the ECB is now near 50% of GDP (33% for the Fed). Two questions arise from this situation. Is this new ECB policy of quantitative easing a monetisation policy forbidden by the EU treaty? According to the ECB this policy being exceptional and temporary isn’t. The second is more radical because some politicians call for pure cancellation of part or all of the public debts held by the ECB knowing that the capital of the bank is ultimately held by the 19 states of the Eurozone. We explain why such a policy would be clearly a breach of the UE treaty and would bring strong long term disadvantages.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116956877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Banks’ Complexity and Risk: Agency Problems and Diversification Benefits 银行复杂性与风险:代理问题与多元化收益
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-06-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3674141
Diana Bonfim, S. Felix
{"title":"Banks’ Complexity and Risk: Agency Problems and Diversification Benefits","authors":"Diana Bonfim, S. Felix","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3674141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3674141","url":null,"abstract":"Bank complexity is often associated with risk, due to moral hazard and agency problems. At the same time, complexity may be linked to diversification and scale economies, thus leading to less risk. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence on the relationship between bank complexity and risk-taking. We find a positive relationship between geographical complexity and bank risk. Banks that operate in more countries, both through banks and non-banks, have riskier balance sheets and more non-performing loans. Further, banks that operate in Africa have higher risk levels due to larger volatility of returns. The link between structural complexity and bank risk is weaker, but generally negative. Our results suggest that moral hazard and agency problems may be more acute when banks operate in many geographies and in emerging market economies. In contrast, the results are consistent with diversification and scale benefits arising from operating in more business areas.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134048387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Do Exchange Rate Devaluations Matter? VAR Evidence from the Czech Republic 汇率贬值重要吗?捷克共和国的VAR证据
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-06-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3739774
Jakub Kvapilik
{"title":"Do Exchange Rate Devaluations Matter? VAR Evidence from the Czech Republic","authors":"Jakub Kvapilik","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3739774","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3739774","url":null,"abstract":"What happens if a country devalues its currency? Standard macroeconomic theory would argue for expansionary effects, while recent theoretical contributions and the empirical evidence do not appear overly supportive. Devaluations have been mostly used by developing countries, but even industrialised countries may resort to depreciatory currency floors in the presence of the zero lower bound, as recently witnessed in the case of Switzerland or the Czech Republic. This paper tries to evaluate the impact of a currency devaluation on macroeconomic variables using data for the Czech Republic. The results based on vector auto-regressions with sign restrictions suggest that while there is a positive short-lived impact on consumer prices, the effect on output is more ambiguous and potentially mildly expansionary at longer horizons. This showcases the real, albeit qualified, possibility of using exchange rate management as an unconventional monetary policy tool, conditional on retaining an independent monetary policy.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128772977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Constructing A Financial Conditions Index for the United Kingdom: A Comparative Analysis 构建英国金融状况指数:比较分析
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-06-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3630903
Sheng Zhu, Ella Kavanagh, Niall O’Sullivan
{"title":"Constructing A Financial Conditions Index for the United Kingdom: A Comparative Analysis","authors":"Sheng Zhu, Ella Kavanagh, Niall O’Sullivan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3630903","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3630903","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the optimal constituent variable weighting method for a UK financial conditions index (FCI) using a small number of financial indicators. The criterion for choosing the optimal weighting model concentrates on the index’s ability to predict economic activity. We develop a ‘two-step’ process as a new weighted-sum method and show that it is superior to other existing weighted-sum models in creating an FCI. For comparative purposes, we create another FCI using a time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive (TVP-FAVAR) with stochastic volatility model as a principal-component method. The results suggest that the TVP-FAVAR model is the best variable-weighting model to create an FCI in relation to its purpose of forecasting developments in the economy.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130454613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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