{"title":"World War I and the Restructuring of International Business","authors":"Edward Fertik, N. Lamoreaux","doi":"10.3386/w28224","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28224","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers the effect of the First World War on large-scale businesses in Second-Industrial-Revolution industries like steel, electricity, and chemicals. For firms in the nations of the Entente, we argue, the war mainly interrupted long-term trends that resumed in the aftermath of the conflict. For Germany, however, the war and its subsequent territorial settlements had a disruptive impact on the economic geography of key industries. The global restructuring that resulted from the collapse of the Habsburg, Romanov, and Ottoman empires and Germany’s loss of its colonial possessions set up a new kind of international rivalry as German firms sought to regain their dominance by contracting with emerging nations in the European periphery and the Global South to build industrial capacity, forcing Britain and the now capital-rich United States to compete for this business or see their influence in these areas decline. The end result of this rivalry was the construction of massive steel works in Brazil and other industrializing countries around the world. These investments would provide the foundation for the import-substituting policies of the post-World War II era.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122487710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
João Capella-Ramos, Cristina D. Checherita-Westphal, Nadine Leiner-Killinger
{"title":"Fiscal Transfers and Economic Convergence","authors":"João Capella-Ramos, Cristina D. Checherita-Westphal, Nadine Leiner-Killinger","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3742258","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3742258","url":null,"abstract":"Before the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, discussions were already taking place on how to complete Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and increase its resilience, inter alia, by speeding up economic convergence. The impact of the current unprecedented crisis on the euro area economy has given the debate new impetus. As a contribution to this topic – and without going into details of new mechanisms for crisis resolution – this paper analyses the role of fiscal transfers in real and business cycle convergence at a regional level. The paper distinguishes between net fiscal transfers – a broad measure defined as the ratio between disposable and primary incomes – and EU structural and investment funds. It provides evidence that net fiscal transfers have contributed to income redistribution across regions and to faster convergence in disposable incomes, although not to higher economic growth and real convergence. More positive evidence has been found for the role of the EU structural and investment funds over the medium term, based on the newly available – and richest so far – European Commission database. Going forward, in addition to efficiency considerations, which are important for real convergence, recommendations on the size and allocation of fiscal transfers should account for their impact on the business cycle. At the same time, in the longer run, it should be borne in mind that fiscal transfers are no substitute for genuine structural reforms and sound macroeconomic and fiscal policies when it comes to promoting sustainable economic growth and convergence.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"24 8","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120918349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Cycles and Long-Range Behaviour in the European Stock Market","authors":"G. Caporale, L. Gil‐Alana, Carlos Poza","doi":"10.1007/978-3-030-54252-8_11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54252-8_11","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132292828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Economic Integration and Convergence: Theory and Practice","authors":"A. Tsibulina","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3752588","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3752588","url":null,"abstract":"The paper analyses various theoretical concepts of correlation between economic integration and economic convergence of participating countries. When initial theories suggested considerable positive effects on economic alignment the later ones instead challenged those. Thus we examine approaches to assessment of different types of convergence in EU Member States.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"93 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122070452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
L. Parisi, Dimitrios Chalamandaris, R. Amamou, P. Torstensson
{"title":"Liquidity in Resolution: Estimating Possible Liquidity Gaps for Specific Banks in Resolution and in a Systemic Crisis","authors":"L. Parisi, Dimitrios Chalamandaris, R. Amamou, P. Torstensson","doi":"10.2866/48515","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2866/48515","url":null,"abstract":"This paper contributes to the debate on liquidity in resolution by providing a quantitative assessment of liquidity gaps of banks in resolution in the euro area. It estimates possible ranges of liquidity gaps for significant banks under different assumptions and scenarios. The findings suggest that, while the average liquidity gaps in resolution are limited, the averages hide significant outliers. The paper thus shows that, under adverse circumstances, the instruments currently available to provide liquidity support to financial institutions in the euro area would be insufficient JEL Classification: G01, G21, G28, G33, C63","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"520 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116187967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Oscar J. Arce, Miguel García-Posada, S. Mayordomo, S. Ongena
{"title":"Adapting lending policies in a “negative-for-long” scenario (Updated October 2020)","authors":"Oscar J. Arce, Miguel García-Posada, S. Mayordomo, S. Ongena","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3255441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3255441","url":null,"abstract":"What is the long-term impact of negative interest rates on bank lending? To answer this question we construct a unique summary measure of negative rate exposure by individual banks based on exclusive survey data, and couple it with the credit register of Spain to identify this impact on the supply of credit to firms. We find that only after a few years of negative rates do affected banks (relative to non-affected banks) decrease their supply and increase their rates, especially when lowly capitalized and lending to risky firms. However, no firms are facing funding constraints, yet.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114274523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Effect of ‘Brexit’ Uncertainty on the FTSE 100 Index and the UK Pound","authors":"R. McCann, Daniel Broby","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3711280","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3711280","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the impact of the uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom’s proposed departure from the European Community (“Brexit”) on financial assets. We conduct an event study around the November 14th 2018 draft withdrawal agreement. Our motivation was that the economic impact of the various political permutations that persisted throughout the negotiation period were both measurable and distinct. The probability of each Brexit scenario that was discussed varied over the political discourse. Using opinion poll data we investigate the event impact on both the FTSE 100 and the UK Pound. We found that, in accordance with existing academic evidence, asset prices discounted the weighted probabilistic economic impact of likely outcomes. We observe, however, that this impact was not as immediate as theory suggests. Interestingly, currency markets had the greater sensitivity. Our conclusions have important implications for the pricing of country risk premia in general and the European Union in particular. Key takeaways: 1) Asset prices were slow to discount the weighted probabilistic economic impact of Brexit risk. 2) Currency markets had the greater sensitivity to changes in Brexit risk. 3) Country risk premia can be impacted by perceived changes in custom union.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122335552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Spending When Illiquid Savings Become Liquid: Evidence From Danish Wage Earners","authors":"H. Andersen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3696220","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3696220","url":null,"abstract":"This paper offers new empirical evidence on the marginal propensity to consume out of an unanticipated liquidity shock. A Danish 2012 policy reform reduced the incentive to retire early in order to increase labour supply but at the same time the policy released a substantial amount of savings from an early retirement scheme that were locked in the scheme until the policy change. By exploiting the fact that cohorts were affected differentially by the policy, this paper uses a difference-in-differences specification to estimate an average increase in the propensity to spend of 43 per cent. The estimated spending patterns are consistent with the notion of wealthy hand-to-mouth behaviour.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"94 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123944054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Who Is Unhappy for Brexit? A Machine-Learning, Agent-based study on Financial Instability","authors":"Stathis Polyzos, Aristeidis Samitas, Marina-Selini Katsaiti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3710504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3710504","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we assess the happiness cost of Brexit in the UK and the EU, using data from the Gallup World Poll. We implement a two-stage learning machine, using a naive Bayes classifier to extract happiness preferences of the population and then passing these onto an artificial neural network of attributes to generate dynamic happiness functions for each household, on an agent-based modelling framework. We find that there is a significant long-run cost in terms of both happiness and unemployment, which primarily affects the most vulnerable portion of the population. In addition, despite the expected instability in City's financial centre, the UK financial sector seems to be well equipped to deal with the repercussions, thus minimising the welfare costs for the country. Our findings extend the discussion of the economic costs of Brexit, by adding the welfare cost of the ensuing financial instability.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115455715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
O. Palyvoda, O. Karpenko, V. Vlasova, N. Bondar, O. Mishulina
{"title":"Evaluation of Seaports’ Investment Attractiveness","authors":"O. Palyvoda, O. Karpenko, V. Vlasova, N. Bondar, O. Mishulina","doi":"10.21511/IMFI.17(3).2020.13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21511/IMFI.17(3).2020.13","url":null,"abstract":"Ukraine’s European integration requires the involvement of seaports in the international TEN-T network, so it is extremely important to create favorable investment conditions to develop port infrastructure. This study aims to make a comprehensive assessment of the seaports’ investment attractiveness to use it for increasing the efficiency of attracting investment in the development of Ukrainian seaports, which are part of the European transport network. The study was conducted using the Saati method and the method of calculating the integrated indicator of seaports’ investment attractiveness. The integrated indicator includes assessing indicators of business activity in the region and consolidated indicators of financial and property status, logistical attractiveness, and prospects for port development. According to the results of calculations, the seaports of Ukraine were divided into three groups. The ports of Yuzhne, Odesa, Illichivsk, and Mykolaiv have a high level of investment attractiveness. The ratio of investment attractiveness ranges from 3 to 2.6. The ports of Izmail, Mariupol, Oktyabrsk, and Kherson have an average level (ratio from 2.2 to 1), and other ports have a low investment attractiveness (coefficient from 0.9 to 0.7).","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132388058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}