NBER Working Paper Series最新文献_第8页

Myth or Measurement: What Does the New Minimum Wage Research Say About Minimum Wages and Job Loss in the United States? 神话还是测量:新的最低工资研究对美国最低工资和失业说了什么?

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28388

D. Neumark, Peter Shirley

{"title":"Myth or Measurement: What Does the New Minimum Wage Research Say About Minimum Wages and Job Loss in the United States?","authors":"D. Neumark, Peter Shirley","doi":"10.3386/W28388","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28388","url":null,"abstract":"The disagreement among studies of the employment effects of minimum wages in the United States is well known. What is less well known, and more puzzling, is the absence of agreement on what the research literature says – that is, how economists even summarize the body of evidence on the employment effects of minimum wages. Summaries range from “it is now well-established that higher minimum wages do not reduce employment,” to “the evidence is very mixed with effects centered on zero so there is no basis for a strong conclusion one way or the other,” to “most evidence points to adverse employment effects.” We explore the question of what conclusions can be drawn from the literature, focusing on the evidence using subnational minimum wage variation within the United States that has dominated the research landscape since the early 1990s. To accomplish this, we assembled the entire set of published studies in this literature and identified the core estimates that support the conclusions from each study, in most cases relying on responses from the researchers who wrote these papers. Our key conclusions are: (i) there is a clear preponderance of negative estimates in the literature; (ii) this evidence is stronger for teens and young adults as well as the less-educated; (iii) the evidence from studies of directly-affected workers points even more strongly to negative employment effects; and (iv) the evidence from studies of low-wage industries is less one-sided.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76474389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 57

Keynesian Production Networks and the Covid-19 Crisis: A Simple Benchmark 凯恩斯生产网络与新冠肺炎危机:一个简单的基准

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1257/PANDP.20211107

D. Baqaee, Robert B. Mendelson

引用次数: 19

Living and Dying in America: An Essay on Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism 《美国的生死:绝望之死与资本主义的未来

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28358

C. Ruhm

{"title":"Living and Dying in America: An Essay on Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism","authors":"C. Ruhm","doi":"10.3386/W28358","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28358","url":null,"abstract":"This essay reviews Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism (hereafter, DEATHS) by Anne Case and Angus Deaton, a fascinating account of life and death in the United States during the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. While primarily targeted toward a popular audience, the volume will be of interest to many economists and other social scientists. It postulates how American capitalism run amok—combined with and partially causing the declining economic circumstances of the less educated—has increased mortality from drugs, suicide, and chronic liver disease. After describing the material in DEATHS in considerable detail, I suggest a variety of research questions that need to be answered to confirm or refute Case and Deaton’s arguments and describe challenges to their key hypotheses. Among the latter are the ability of the postulated relationships to explain the sharply differing mortality trajectories of non-Hispanic Whites, compared with other groups, and the timing of the observed mortality changes. Along the way, I raise doubts about the usefulness of the “deaths of despair” conceptualization, with its strong implications about causality. (JEL I12, I14, I18, J11, J18)","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"98 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80917196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

A Second-Best Argument for Low Optimal Tariffs 低最优关税的次优论据

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28380

Lorenzo Caliendo, R. Feenstra, John Romalis, Alan M. Taylor

引用次数: 9

Estimating Production Functions in Differentiated-Product Industries with Quantity Information and External Instruments 基于数量信息和外部工具的差异化产品产业生产函数估算

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3774458

N. de Roux, Marcela Eslava, Santiago Franco, E. Verhoogen

{"title":"Estimating Production Functions in Differentiated-Product Industries with Quantity Information and External Instruments","authors":"N. de Roux, Marcela Eslava, Santiago Franco, E. Verhoogen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3774458","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3774458","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a new method for estimating production-function parameters that can be applied in differentiated-product industries with endogenous quality and variety choice. We take advantage of data on physical quantities of outputs and inputs from the Colombian manufacturing survey, focusing on producers of rubber and plastic products. Assuming constant elasticities of substitution of outputs and inputs within firms, we aggregate from the firm-product to the firm level and show how quality and variety choices may bias standard estimators. Using real exchange rates and variation in the \"bite\" of the national minimum wage, we construct external instruments for materials and labor choices. We implement a simple two-step instrumental-variables method, first estimating a difference equation to recover the materials and labor coefficients and then estimating a levels equation to recover the capital coefficient. Under the assumption that the instruments are uncorrelated with firms' quality and variety choices, this method yields consistent estimates, free of the quality and variety biases we have identified. Our point estimates differ from those of existing methods and changes in our preferred productivity estimator perform relatively well in predicting future export growth.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"13 20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72638317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 11

The Supply-Side Effects of Monetary Policy 货币政策的供给侧效应

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28345

D. Baqaee, Robert B. Mendelson, K. Sangani

{"title":"The Supply-Side Effects of Monetary Policy","authors":"D. Baqaee, Robert B. Mendelson, K. Sangani","doi":"10.3386/W28345","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28345","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a supply-side channel for the transmission of monetary policy. We show that if, as is consistent with the empirical evidence, bigger firms have higher markups and lower pass-throughs than smaller firms, then a monetary easing endogenously increases aggregate TFP and improves allocative efficiency. This endogenous positive \"supply shock\" amplifies the effects of the positive \"demand shock\" on output and employment. The result is a flattening of the Phillips curve. This effect is distinct from another mechanism discussed at length in the real rigidities literature: a monetary easing leads to a reduction in desired markups because of strategic complementarities in pricing. We calibrate the model to match firm-level pass-throughs and find that the misallocation channel of monetary policy is quantitatively important, flattening the Phillips curve by about 70% compared to a model with no supply-side effects. We derive a tractable four-equation dynamic model and show that monetary easing generates a procyclical hump-shaped response in aggregate TFP and countercyclical dispersion in firm-level TFPR. The improvements in allocative efficiency amplify both the impact and persistence of interest rate shocks on output.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75096164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 13

Hungry for Success? Snap Timing, High-Stakes Exam Performance, and College Attendance 渴望成功?快速计时，高风险考试成绩和大学出勤率

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28386

Timothy N. Bond, J. Carr, Analisa Packham, Jonathan Smith

引用次数: 11

The Effects of Youth Employment on Crime: Evidence from New York City Lotteries 青年就业对犯罪的影响:来自纽约市彩票的证据

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28373

Judd B. Kessler, Sarah Tahamont, Alexander M. Gelber, A. Isen

{"title":"The Effects of Youth Employment on Crime: Evidence from New York City Lotteries","authors":"Judd B. Kessler, Sarah Tahamont, Alexander M. Gelber, A. Isen","doi":"10.3386/W28373","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28373","url":null,"abstract":"Recent policy discussions have proposed government-guaranteed jobs, including for youth. One key potential benefit of youth employment is a reduction in criminal justice contact. Prior work on summer youth employment programs has documented little-to-no effect of the program on crime during the program but has found decreases in violent and other serious crimes among “at-risk” youth in the year or two after the program. We add to this picture by studying randomized lotteries for access to the New York City Summer Youth Employment Program (SYEP), the largest such program in the United States. We link SYEP data to New York State criminal records data to investigate outcomes of 163,447 youth who participated in a SYEP lottery between 2005 and 2008. We find evidence that SYEP participation decreases arrests and convictions during the program summer, effects that are driven by the small fraction (3 percent) of SYEP youth who are at-risk, as defined by having been arrested before the start of the program. We conclude that an important benefit of SYEPs is the contemporaneous effect during the program summer and that the effect is concentrated among individuals with prior contact with the criminal justice system.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82949624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 6

Robust Financial Contracting and Investment 稳健的金融承包和投资

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3763212

Ai-fan Ling, Jianjun Miao, Neng Wang

引用次数: 2

Minimax Risk and Uniform Convergence Rates for Nonparametric Dyadic Regression 非参数二进回归的极大极小风险和一致收敛速率

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI: 10.3386/W28548

B. Graham, Fengshi Niu, J. Powell

{"title":"Minimax Risk and Uniform Convergence Rates for Nonparametric Dyadic Regression","authors":"B. Graham, Fengshi Niu, J. Powell","doi":"10.3386/W28548","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28548","url":null,"abstract":"Let $i=1,ldots,N$ index a simple random sample of units drawn from some large population. For each unit we observe the vector of regressors $X_{i}$ and, for each of the $Nleft(N-1right)$ ordered pairs of units, an outcome $Y_{ij}$. The outcomes $Y_{ij}$ and $Y_{kl}$ are independent if their indices are disjoint, but dependent otherwise (i.e., \"dyadically dependent\"). Let $W_{ij}=left(X_{i}',X_{j}'right)'$; using the sampled data we seek to construct a nonparametric estimate of the mean regression function $gleft(W_{ij}right)overset{def}{equiv}mathbb{E}left[left.Y_{ij}right|X_{i},X_{j}right].$ \u0000We present two sets of results. First, we calculate lower bounds on the minimax risk for estimating the regression function at (i) a point and (ii) under the infinity norm. Second, we calculate (i) pointwise and (ii) uniform convergence rates for the dyadic analog of the familiar Nadaraya-Watson (NW) kernel regression estimator. We show that the NW kernel regression estimator achieves the optimal rates suggested by our risk bounds when an appropriate bandwidth sequence is chosen. This optimal rate differs from the one available under iid data: the effective sample size is smaller and $d_W=mathrm{dim}(W_{ij})$ influences the rate differently.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81220013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8