NBER Working Paper Series最新文献_第10页

Do Enlarged Fiscal Deficits Cause Inflation: The Historical Record 财政赤字扩大是否会导致通货膨胀:历史记录

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/w28195

Michael D. Bordo, Mickey D. Levy

{"title":"Do Enlarged Fiscal Deficits Cause Inflation: The Historical Record","authors":"Michael D. Bordo, Mickey D. Levy","doi":"10.3386/w28195","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28195","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we survey the historical record for over two centuries on the connection between expansionary fiscal policy and inflation. As a backdrop, we briefly lay out several theoretical approaches to the effects of fiscal deficits on inflation: the earlier Keynesian and monetarist approaches; and modern approaches incorporating expectations and forward looking behavior: unpleasant monetarist arithmetic and the fiscal theory of the price level. We find that the relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation generally holds in wartime when fiscally stressed governments resorted to the inflation tax. There were two peacetime episodes in the early twentieth century when bond financed fiscal deficits that were unbacked by future taxes seem to have greatly contributed to inflation: France in the 1920s and the recovery from the Great Recession in the 1930s in the U.S. In the post-World War II era a detailed examination of the Great Inflation in the 1960s and 1970s in the U.S. and the U.K. suggests that fiscal influences on monetary policy was a key factor. Finally we contrast the experience of the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, when both expansionary fiscal and monetary policy did not lead to rising inflation, with the recent pandemic, which may involve the risks of fiscal dominance and future inflation.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85797706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 21

The Effect of Computer-Assisted Learning on Students&Apos; Long-Term Development 计算机辅助学习对学生心理素质的影响长期发展

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3743913

Nicola Bianchi, Yi Lu, Hong Song

引用次数: 0

Police Force Size and Civilian Race 警察队伍规模和平民种族

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/w28202

Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin C. Hansen, Emily K. Weisburst, Morgan C. Williams

引用次数: 39

Prep School for Poor Kids: The Long-Run Impacts of Head Start on Human Capital and Economic Self-Sufficiency 贫困儿童预备学校:领先优势对人力资本和经济自给自足的长期影响

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/w28268

M. Bailey, Brenden Timpe, Shuqiao Sun

引用次数: 57

Job Satisfaction Over the Life Course 职业满意度贯穿一生

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/w28206

David G. Blanchflower, A. Bryson

引用次数: 2

Transhumant Pastoralism, Climate Change, and Conflict in Africa 非洲的游牧、气候变化和冲突

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/w28243

Eoin F. McGuirk, Nathan Nunn

{"title":"Transhumant Pastoralism, Climate Change, and Conflict in Africa","authors":"Eoin F. McGuirk, Nathan Nunn","doi":"10.3386/w28243","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28243","url":null,"abstract":"Arid regions of Africa are expanding by thousands of square kilometers a year, potentially disturbing pastoral routes that have been forged over a long period of time. This disturbance is often said to explain why “herder-farmer” conflicts have erupted in recent years, as pastoralists and agriculturalists compete for increasingly scarce resources. We examine this hypothesis by combining ecological and ethnographic data on the location of pastoral ethnic groups with grid-cell level data on violent conflict in Africa from 1989 to 2018. First, using ecological data, (i) we confirm that areas suited to both agriculture and pastoralism are particularly prone to conflict relative to either agricultural or pastoral areas alone; and (ii) we find that the effect of precipitation shocks on conflict in these agro-pastoral zones is negative at the country-level, but not at the cell-level. To explain this pattern, we compile data on the historical location of borders between both types of ethnic groups. We find that droughts in pastoral areas lead to conflict in neighboring agricultural areas. This spillover mechanism appears to explain much of the negative overall relationship between precipitation and conflict in the sample. It implies that agro-pastoral conflict is caused by the displacement of pastoral groups due to low precipitation in their homelands. This finding establishes one mechanism through which climate change can lead to more conflict in agro-pastoral zones.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90550114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 36

Do State Tobacco 21 Laws Work? 州烟草法律有效吗?

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/w28173

Calvin Bryan, Benjamin C. Hansen, Drew McNichols, Joseph J. Sabia

{"title":"Do State Tobacco 21 Laws Work?","authors":"Calvin Bryan, Benjamin C. Hansen, Drew McNichols, Joseph J. Sabia","doi":"10.3386/w28173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28173","url":null,"abstract":"Tobacco 21 (T-21) laws prohibit the sale of tobacco products to individuals under age 21. This study is the first to comprehensively examine the impacts of statewide T-21 laws on youth tobacco consumption, including spillovers to minor teens. Using data from the 2009-2019 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS) and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the enactment of a statewide T-21 law was associated with a 2.5 to 3.9 percentage-point decline in smoking participation among 18-to-20-year-olds. A causal interpretation of our estimates is supported by event-study analyses and falsification tests for young adults ages 21 and older. Next, using data from the 2009-2019 State Youth Risky Behavior Surveys (YRBS), we find that statewide T-21 laws reduced tobacco cigarette and electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) consumption among 18-year-old high school students. However, descriptive evidence suggests that the negative impact of T-21 laws on e-cigarette use among 18-year-olds may be partially blunted by an increase in borrowing e-cigarettes from others. Finally, we find that T-21 laws generate important spillovers including (i) a reduction in tobacco cigarette use among 16-to-17-year-olds, a group that relies heavily on the “social market” — including 18-year-old peers — to access tobacco, and (ii) reductions in both marijuana use and frequency of alcohol consumption among older teenagers.<br><br>Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at <a href=\"http://www.nber.org/papers/w28173\" TARGET=\"_blank\">www.nber.org</a>.<br>","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89747801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 12

Vertical Integration of Healthcare Providers Increases Self-Referrals and Can Reduce Downstream Competition: The Case of Hospital-Owned Skilled Nursing Facilities 医疗服务提供者的垂直整合增加了自我转诊，并可以减少下游竞争:医院拥有的熟练护理设施的案例

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/w28305

D. Cutler, Leemore S. Dafny, D. Grabowski, Christopher Ody

{"title":"Vertical Integration of Healthcare Providers Increases Self-Referrals and Can Reduce Downstream Competition: The Case of Hospital-Owned Skilled Nursing Facilities","authors":"D. Cutler, Leemore S. Dafny, D. Grabowski, Christopher Ody","doi":"10.3386/w28305","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28305","url":null,"abstract":"The landscape of the U.S. healthcare industry is changing dramatically as healthcare providers expand both within and across markets. While federal antitrust agencies have mounted several challenges to same-market combinations, they have not challenged any non-horizontal affiliations – including vertical integration of providers along the value chain of production. The Clayton Act prohibits combinations that “substantially lessen” competition; few empirical studies have focused on whether this is the source of harm from vertical combinations. We examine whether hospitals that are vertically integrated with skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) lessen competition among SNFs by foreclosing rival SNFs from access to the most lucrative referrals. Exploiting a plausibly exogenous shock to Medicare reimbursement for SNFs, we find that a 1 percent increase in a patient’s expected profitability to a SNF increases the probability that a hospital self-refers that patient (i.e., to a co-owned SNF) by 2.5 percent. We find no evidence that increased self-referrals improve patient outcomes or change post-discharge Medicare spending. Additional analyses show that when integrated SNFs are divested by their parent hospitals, independent rivals are less likely to exit. Together, the results suggest vertical integration in this setting may reduce downstream competition without offsetting benefits to patients or payers.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"NS20 9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77829200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Stay-at-Home Orders in a Fiscal Union 财政联盟中的居家命令

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3824491

Mario J. Crucini, Oscar O'Flaherty

引用次数: 12

Advanced Technologies Adoption and Use by U.S. Firms: Evidence from the Annual Business Survey 美国公司采用和使用先进技术:来自年度商业调查的证据

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/w28290

Nikolas J. Zolas, Zachary Kroff, E. Brynjolfsson, Kristina McElheran, David N. Beede, Catherine D. Buffington, Nathan Goldschlag, L. Foster, Emin M. Dinlersoz

{"title":"Advanced Technologies Adoption and Use by U.S. Firms: Evidence from the Annual Business Survey","authors":"Nikolas J. Zolas, Zachary Kroff, E. Brynjolfsson, Kristina McElheran, David N. Beede, Catherine D. Buffington, Nathan Goldschlag, L. Foster, Emin M. Dinlersoz","doi":"10.3386/w28290","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28290","url":null,"abstract":"We introduce a new survey module intended to complement and expand research on the causes and consequences of advanced technology adoption. The 2018 Annual Business Survey (ABS), conducted by the Census Bureau in partnership with the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES), provides comprehensive and timely information on the diffusion among U.S. firms of advanced technologies including artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, robotics, and the digitization of business information. The 2018 ABS is a large, nationally representative sample of over 850,000 firms covering all private, nonfarm sectors of the economy. We describe the motivation for and development of the technology module in the ABS, as well as provide a first look at technology adoption and use patterns across firms and sectors. We find that digitization is quite widespread, as is some use of cloud computing. In contrast, advanced technology adoption is rare and generally skewed towards larger and older firms. Adoption patterns are consistent with a hierarchy of increasing technological sophistication, in which most firms that adopt AI or other advanced business technologies also use the other, more widely diffused technologies. Finally, while few firms are at the technology frontier, they tend to be large so technology exposure of the average worker is significantly higher. This new data will be available to qualified researchers on approved projects in the Federal Statistical Research Data Center network.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90617262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 59