Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal最新文献

{"title":"Getting Rental Prices Right for Computers: Reconciling Different Perspectives on Depreciation","authors":"Erwin Diewert, Hui Wei","doi":"10.1111/roiw.12249","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12249","url":null,"abstract":"National statistical agencies frequently assume high geometric depreciation rates for computers. However, typically the service flow that a computer generates over its useful life is roughly constant, which contradicts the geometric model of depreciation. A one hoss shay model of depreciation seems to be more appropriate for computers. The paper uses Australian data on computer investment over the past 25 years to construct one hoss shay estimates of computer capital stocks and flows and considers how best to approximate these more realistic models of depreciation with a geometric model. The paper shows that under certain assumptions, a geometric model can provide an exact approximation to an underlying one hoss shay model. This exactness result is extended to a more general model of depreciation, the Constant Efficiency Profile model. Finally, the paper shows how well the geometric approximation fits a one hoss shay model when the assumptions are not satisfied.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87013739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What Do the Different Measures of GDP Tell Us?","authors":"Philip Cross","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2888931","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2888931","url":null,"abstract":"GDP is key to macroeconomics, yet different ways of defining and measuring GDP have particular purposes. This paper examines how total GDP can be conceptualized, dissected and studied and how these improve our analysis and understanding of the sources of economic growth. While each approach is useful, macroeconomic analysis is shifting from a short-term, recession-driven focus on managing aggregate demand to a long-term, supply-side perspective on the determinants of economic growth. This shift is likely to accelerate in the current environment of concerns about a “new normal” of slow growth, with the debate framed by supply determinants such as an aging labour force and whether technological innovations have been mostly exhausted. How one views GDP has important implications for policymaking. If today’s chronic slow growth is due to deficiency of demand, stimulative fiscal policies might be the proper response, depending on a country’s fiscal capacity to take on more debt. However, if the shortfall in growth is due to a lack of productivity growth, different policies might be appropriate that increase the efficiency of resource use or the rate of innovation. The point is that a more detailed understanding of each measure of GDP leads to better comprehension of why it behaves in a particular way in response to different economic circumstances. This knowledge will allow policymakers to make more informed decisions. The author reviews each of the different ways of looking at GDP and how they evolved in response to the needs of analysts. He summarizes the strengths and weaknesses of each and what can be learned by contrasting and combining them in analysis. In order the six are: \u0000• GDP by industry; • GDP by expenditure; • GDP by income; • The quantity equation; • GDP by input/output; and • GDP by factor input. \u0000For economists, the different optics for viewing economic activity lead to a more profound understanding of the process of economic growth. Good analysis and policy prescription often depend on finding the right optic to understand a particular problem.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76212729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Credit Markets and Housing Choices","authors":"Serena Trucchi","doi":"10.1111/boer.12063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12063","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses how individual characteristics and credit market conditions interact and determine homeownership. The impact of the lifetime profile of resources on homeownership is larger when credit market imperfections are more severe. We combine data from the Bank of Italy's Survey on Household Income and Wealth with information on regional differences in interest rate spreads. We find that an increase in current resources by 10,000 euros increases the probability of homeownership by five (two) percentage points under the least (most) favourable credit market conditions.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77516042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Russian Industry in H1 2016: Zero Dynamics","authors":"A. Kaukin, G. Idrisov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2842173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2842173","url":null,"abstract":"The trend that first became visible in early 2016 – decline giving way to zero rates of growth – towards the end of H1 had spread across a majority of segments of the economy’s real sector. The lack of a noticeable domestic demand and dependence upon foreign equipment supplies coupled with the persistently low relative income generated by exports of raw materials make it impossible to expect any significant domestic production growth in the nearest future.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73999279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Valuing 'Free' Media in GDP: An Experimental Approach","authors":"L. Nakamura, Jon D. Samuels, Rachel H. Soloveichik","doi":"10.21799/FRBP.WP.2016.24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21799/FRBP.WP.2016.24","url":null,"abstract":"“Free” consumer entertainment and information from the Internet, largely supported by advertising revenues, has had a major impact on consumer behavior. Some economists believe that measured gross domestic product (GDP) growth is badly underestimated because GDP excludes online entertainment (Brynjolfsson and Oh 2012; Ito 2013; Aeppel 2015). This paper introduces an experimental GDP methodology that includes advertising-supported media in both final output and business inputs. For example, Google Maps would be counted as final output when it is used by a consumer to plan vacation driving routes. On the other hand, the same website would be counted as a business input when it is used by a pizza restaurant to plan delivery routes. Contrary to critics of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the process of including “free” media in the input-output accounts has little impact on either GDP or total factor productivity (TFP). Between 1998 and 2012, measured nominal GDP growth falls 0.005% per year, real GDP growth rises 0.009% per year and TFP growth rises 0.016% per year. Between 1929 and 1998, measured nominal GDP growth rises 0.002% per year, real GDP growth falls 0.002% per year, and TFP growth rises 0.004% per year. These changes are not nearly enough to reverse the recent slowdown in growth. Our method for accounting for free media is production oriented in the sense that it is a measure of the resource input into the entertainment (or other content) of the medium rather than a measure of the consumer surplus arising from the content. The BEA uses a similar production-oriented approach when measuring GDP. In contrast, other researchers use broader approaches to measure value. Brynjolfsson and Oh (2012) attempt to capture some consumer surplus by measuring the time expended on the Internet. Varian (2009) argues that much of the value of the Internet is in time saving, an additional metric for capturing consumer surplus. The McKinsey Institute (Bughin et al. 2011) attempts to measure the productivity gain from search directly. In particular, this production-oriented accounting has no method to account for instances in which the good or service precedes the revenue that it eventually generates. Over the past two decades, many Silicon Valley firms have followed the disruptive business model described as URL: ubiquity now, revenue later. Some firms have been creating proprietary software or research, which is already captured in the national accounts as investment. Other firms have been creating intangible investments in open source software, customer networks and other organizational capital. Despite their long-run value, none of these intangible assets are currently captured in the national accounts as investment. If we treat these asset categories as capital, then the productivity boom from 1995 to 2000 becomes even stronger and the weak productivity growth of the past decade may be ameliorated somewhat.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87030142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adjusting the External Adjustment: Cyclical Factors and the Italian Current Account","authors":"S. Fabiani, Stefano Federico, Alberto Felettigh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2863912","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2863912","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the role of cyclical factors in the adjustment of Italy’s external balance from 2010, developing a model that infers the potential levels of domestic demand and of imports and exports from an exogenous measure of potential output, in an internally coherent fashion and also taking composition effects into account. According to our results, in 2015 Italy’s cyclically-adjusted current account surplus came to about 0.5 percentage points of GDP; the overall external rebalancing of the Italian economy has largely been of a non-cyclical nature, with a positive contribution from the decline in the prices of energy commodities. By applying our methodology to the other major euro-area countries, we find that current account imbalances over the recent period are amplified when assessed in cyclically-adjusted terms.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75469897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Herausforderungen Bei Der Messung von Wohlfahrt (Challenges of Welfare Measurement)","authors":"Beate R. Jochimsen, Christian Raffer","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2812020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2812020","url":null,"abstract":"German Abstract: Initiiert von einer lebhaften oeffentlichen und wissenschaftlichen Debatte um die Eignung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts als Indikator fur materiellen Wohlstand sind zahlreiche alternative Masse zur Wohlstands- und Wohlfahrtsmessung entwickelt worden. Faellt dabei die Wahl auf einen Indikatorensatz, ist die Bestimmung der optimalen Anzahl der Indikatoren eine zentrale Herausforderung. Je mehr Indikatoren ausgewaehlt werden, desto besser koennen zwar die Bestandteile der Wohlfahrt abgebildet werden, desto schlechter ist aber die Kommunizierbarkeit. Beate Jochimsen und Christian Raffer analysieren mit Hilfe mehrerer statistischer Methoden die Verbindungen der 10 W³-Leitindikatoren des Deutschen Bundestages untereinander. Es zeigt sich, dass – je nach Messverfahren – drei bis sechs dieser Indikatoren ohne grossen Informationsverlust weggelassen werden koennen, da sie mit den verbleibenden eng korreliert sind. Ein kleiner W³-Indikatorensatz koennte wesentlich leichter erklaert und kommuniziert werden. Im Ergebnis bedeutet dies, dass der Umfang aller nationaler und internationaler Indikatorensaetze zur Wohlfahrtsmessung kritisch zu wuerdigen ist.English Abstract: Triggered by the lively public and academic debate on the gross domestic product as welfare indicator numerous alternative welfare measurements emerged. If a set of indicators as welfare measurement is chosen the identification of an optimal number of indicators is a challenging question. The more indicators are included in the set the more comprehensive welfare can be mapped, thus, the more complicated is the communication of results. Based on several statistical methods Beate Jochimsen and Christian Raffer analyze the linkage of the ten W³-Indicators which the German Bundestag developed. They find that – depending on the statistical method – between three and six of those ten indicators could be easily excluded as they are closely correlated with the remaining ones. A smaller set of W³-Indicators could be explained far easier to the public. This result suggests to critically evaluate the number of indicators in various welfare measures onnational and international level.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"273 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76814150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hirschman's Tunnel Effect Goes Abroad: International Dimensions of Social Comparison and Subjective Well-Being","authors":"Aart Gerritsen, Harald Lang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3131660","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3131660","url":null,"abstract":"We i¬ nd evidence that individuals’ subjective well-being depends on the macroeconomic performance of other countries as well as that of their home country. Given the home country’s economic growth, an individual’s life satisfaction is positively associated with the economic growth of important trade partners. It is negatively associated with the economic growth of neighboring countries that engage in relatively little trade with the home country. Our i¬ ndings are consistent with individuals who care about their economic situation relative to that of people in other countries, but who at the same time anticipate positive spillovers from the economic performance of countries that share an important economic tie with their home country.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86338663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prosperity, Sustainability and the Measurement of Wealth","authors":"K. Mumford","doi":"10.1002/app5.132","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.132","url":null,"abstract":"Gross domestic product (GDP) and household income measures provide invaluable metrics of economic activity in an economy, but they tell us little about the sustainability of the economic trends. National wealth accounting can be utilised to determine the size of the underlying productive base, which provides insight into the sustainability of economic activities and indicates the potential for intergenerational well-being. An empirical methodology was developed to measure wealth and then used to analyse multiple Asian countries. A common theme found across the Asian countries was the depletion of natural capital (forests, minerals and energy) and the development of human and produced capital. A strong correlation between growth in GDP per capita and wealth per capita was also found, but there are instances of GDP growth and wealth growth having different signs.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78840656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Did TARP Distort Competition Among Sound Unsupported Banks?","authors":"M. Koetter, Felix Noth","doi":"10.1111/ecin.12281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12281","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates if the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) distorted price competition in U.S. banking. Political indicators reveal bailout expectations after 2009, manifested as beliefs about the predicted probability of receiving equity support relative to failing during the TARP disbursement period. In addition, the TARP affected the competitive conduct of unsupported banks after the program stopped in the fourth quarter of 2009. Loan rates were higher, and the risk premium required by depositors was lower for banks with higher bailout expectations. The interest margins of unsupported banks increased in the immediate aftermath of the TARP disbursement but not after 2010. No effects emerged for loan or deposit growth, which suggests that protected banks did not increase their market shares at the expense of less protected banks.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90289516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}