Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal最新文献

Consumer Welfare in the Digital Economy 数字经济中的消费者福利

Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal Pub Date : 2020-11-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3733700

A. Collis

引用次数: 1

Nowcasting GDP and its Components in a Data-Rich Environment: The Merits of the Indirect Approach 在数据丰富的环境下预测GDP及其组成部分:间接方法的优点

Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal Pub Date : 2020-05-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3614110

A. Giovannelli, Ambra Citton, Cristian Tegami, Tommaso Proietti, O. Ricchi, Cristina Tinti

{"title":"Nowcasting GDP and its Components in a Data-Rich Environment: The Merits of the Indirect Approach","authors":"A. Giovannelli, Ambra Citton, Cristian Tegami, Tommaso Proietti, O. Ricchi, Cristina Tinti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3614110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3614110","url":null,"abstract":"The national accounts provide a coherent and exaustive description of the current state of the economy, but are available at the quarterly frequency and are released with a nonignorable publication lag. The paper proposes and illustrates a method for nowcasting and forecasting the sixteen main components of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by output and expenditure type at the monthly frequency, using a high-dimensional set of monthly economic indicators spanning the space of the common macroeconomic and financial factors. The projection on the common space is carried out by combining the individual nowcasts and forecasts arising from all possible bivariate models of the unobserved monthly GDP component and the observed monthly indicator. We discuss several pooling strategies and we select the one showing the best predictive performance according to a pseudo real time forecasting experiment. Monthly GDP can be indirectly estimated by the contemporaneous aggregation of the value added of the different industries and of the expenditure components. This enables the comparative assessment of the indirect nowcasts and forecasts vis-a-vis the direct approach and a growth accounting exercise. Our approach meets the challenges posed by the dimensionality, since it can handle a large number of time series with a complexity that increases linearly with the cross-sectional dimension, while retaining the essential heterogeneity of the information about the macroeconomy. The application to the Italian case leads to several interesting discoveries concerning the time-varying predictive content of the information carried by the monthly indicators.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88933172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

Nowcasting the Spanish Economy Using Very High Frequency Tax Data 利用甚高频税收数据预测西班牙经济

Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal Pub Date : 2020-04-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3589467

Ángel Cuevas, Ramiro Ledo, Enrique M. Quilis

引用次数: 0

Off to a Good Start: The NBER and the Measurement of National Income 开个好头:国家经济研究局和国民收入的测算

Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.3386/w26895

H. Rockoff

{"title":"Off to a Good Start: The NBER and the Measurement of National Income","authors":"H. Rockoff","doi":"10.3386/w26895","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w26895","url":null,"abstract":"The creation of the National Bureau of Economic Research was a response to the bitter controversies over the distribution of income that roiled the United States during the Progressive Era. Thanks to Malcolm Rorty, a business economist, and Nahum I. Stone, an independent socialist economist, a “Committee on the Distribution of Income” was created; what might be considered the first name of the Bureau. Funding was secured, the Bureau was chartered in 1920, and Wesley Mitchell was appointed the director of research. The Bureau’s first publication, Income in the United States, its Amount and Distribution was widely hailed as a major contribution. Further estimates of national income and its distribution for the 1920s were made by Willford King and Lillian Epstein. The Great Depression led to legislation requiring federal government estimates. Simon Kuznets was seconded from the Bureau to the Commerce Department where he led the team that produced the first federal estimates and established the unit for producing updates. The early investigators at the Bureau proved to be masters of combining sources of data to produce credible estimates. The result was estimates that still underlie our understanding of the growth and fluctuations of the American Economy.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"683 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76871884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Measuring the Impact of Free Goods on Real Household Consumption 衡量免费商品对实际家庭消费的影响

Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal Pub Date : 2020-01-10 DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/gnd4c

E. Brynjolfsson, A. Collis, Erwin Diewert, Felix Eggers, Kevin J. Fox

引用次数: 21

Outward Foreign Direct Investment Patterns of Italian Firms in the European Union's Emission Trading Scheme 意大利企业在欧盟排放交易计划中的对外直接投资模式

Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1111/sjoe.12323

S. Borghesi, C. Franco, Giovanni Marin

引用次数: 30

A Century of Gaps: Where TFP Goes, Potential Follows 一个世纪的差距:TFP去向何处，潜力随之而至

Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal Pub Date : 2019-12-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3503192

Mihnea Constantinescu, A. Nguyen

引用次数: 0

El PIB de la Cocaína 2005-2018: Una Estimación empírica (Cocaine GDP 2005-2018: An Empirical Estimate) 可卡因GDP 2005-2018:经验估计(可卡因GDP 2005-2018:经验估计)

Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal Pub Date : 2019-11-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3499830

S. Montenegro, Jorge Llano, D. Ibanez

{"title":"El PIB de la Cocaína 2005-2018: Una Estimación empírica (Cocaine GDP 2005-2018: An Empirical Estimate)","authors":"S. Montenegro, Jorge Llano, D. Ibanez","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3499830","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3499830","url":null,"abstract":"Este documento estima el valor del producto interno bruto, PIB, de la produccion de cocaina y, en particular, el valor agregado por la base de coca y por el clorhidrato de cocaina. Este valor del PIB de la cocaina es muy sensible a los precios y cantidades de insumos y de productos en diferentes puntos de la geografia del pais. Los precios del clorhidrato de cocaina se incrementan exponencialmente desde los datos observados en los laboratorios en el interior del pais, hasta llegar a los puertos de exportacion y a los mercados de consumo. Los datos aqui utilizados fueron tomados de la informacion del Sistema Integrado de Monitoreo de Cultivos Ilicitos, SIMCI, de la Oficina de las Naciones Unidas Contra la Droga y el Delito, UNODC. Si se asume un precio FOB del clorhidrato de cocaina igual al precio de frontera fisica mas un 10% del diferencial entre el precio mayorista en los EEUU y dicho precio de frontera, el PIB de la cocaina alcanzaria un 1,88% del PIB total en 2018, mas de dos veces el PIB de un sector emblematico como el cafe, que representa un 0,8% del PIB. Dicha cifra es igualmente preocupante comparada con la del periodo 2011-14, cuando en promedio solo represento un 0,6% del PIB, y en terminos nominales alcanzo en 2018 unos $18 billones. El valor agregado de la cocaina calculado solo con el precio estimado en puerto de salida, que habia caido en promedio a un 0,42% del PIB nacional hacia 2011-14, volvio a crecer hasta alcanzar un nivel de 0,88% del PIB total en 2017 y 1,06% en 2018. Dicha expansion esta fundamentalmente explicada por el crecimiento de las siembras de la mata de coca, la cual alcanzo en 2017 las 171 mil hectareas niveles superiores a los del ano 2000 que se situaron cerca de 163 mil hectareas y en 2018 cerca de 169 mil hectareas. Debido a una politica estricta de erradicacion, ese nivel habia caido a menos de 50,000 hectareas en 2010.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75191028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Measuring the Output Gap Using Large Datasets 使用大数据集测量输出缺口

Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal Pub Date : 2019-10-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3217816

M. Barigozzi, Matteo Luciani

引用次数: 16

The Direct Investment Income Puzzle 直接投资收益之谜

Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal Pub Date : 2019-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3248774

James F. Albertus

引用次数: 2