Land Use Policy最新文献

{"title":"Urban sprawl in Latin America: A systematic review of the existing literature and emerging insights","authors":"Reynaldo Hinojosa-Contreras ,&nbsp;Eric Gielen ,&nbsp;José-Sergio Palencia-Jiménez ,&nbsp;Isidro Cantarino-Martí","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107980","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107980","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban sprawl has become one of the most pressing challenges in Latin American cities, driven by a complex interplay of economic, political, and spatial factors. Despite being one of the most urbanized regions in the world, Latin America lacks a consistent analytical framework to fully understand the indicators, patterns, approaches and consequences of urban sprawl. This study conducts a systematic review of 56 peer-reviewed articles published between 2004 and 2025, applying a six-dimensional analytical framework: (i) general publication features, (ii) scale of analysis, (iii) methodological approaches, (iv) indicators employed, (v) drivers of change, and (vi) effects of urban sprawl. Findings reveal a strong concentration of city and metropolitan level studies in Mexico, Brazil, and Chile, with GIS-based spatial analysis dominating the methodological landscape, while contemporary approaches, such as machine learning and multi-criteria decision analysis, remain underused. Density and land use/land cover change are the most frequently applied indicators, followed by fragmentation and centrality metrics. The review underlines the context of structural drivers, including neoliberal housing policies, infrastructure-led growth, land market speculation, and governance gaps, which critically shape the spatial outcomes of sprawl. Socio-spatial inequality emerges as the most persistent and structural effect, yet multidimensional indices capturing access to infrastructure, public services, and ecosystem amenities are almost absent. The discussion calls for rethinking the application of Global North metrics to Global South contexts and advocates for the development of justice-oriented, context-sensitive frameworks that reflect Latin America’s unique urban realities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"165 ","pages":"Article 107980"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146193203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing carbon storage dynamics and policy impacts: Application of InVEST-PLUS framework in the Qinling Mountains, China","authors":"Yumeng Ma ,&nbsp;Jinshan Wang ,&nbsp;Pengyuan Xin ,&nbsp;Zixin Zhao ,&nbsp;Xiaoxu Zhang ,&nbsp;Yuxi Yang ,&nbsp;Tian Gao ,&nbsp;Ling Qiu","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107947","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107947","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mountainous regions play a vital role in global carbon sequestration, yet they are increasingly shaped by anthropogenic pressures and land-use changes. This study focuses on the Qinling Mountains in Shaanxi Province, China, to quantify historical land-use and carbon storage dynamics (1985–2020) and to project alternative futures to 2050. Using eight temporal snapshots of county-level data (n = 39), the study coupled the InVEST Carbon Storage and Sequestration module with a Markov-PLUS land-use simulator to model three scenarios: Natural Growth (NGS), Ecological Priority (EPS), and Tourism Development (TDS). The results show that forest expansion—from 66.04 % to 75.29 % of total land cover—raised carbon storage from 1652.66 Tg to 1732.19 Tg over the 35-year period. Spatially, carbon stocks increased markedly in the southern and eastern Qinling, consistent with ecological restoration and comparatively lower urban pressure, whereas northern areas experienced net declines associated with intensive urbanization. Scenario projections indicate continued carbon accumulation by 2050, with total storage reaching 1762.95 Tg under NGS, 1778.70 Tg under EPS, and 1767.02 Tg under TDS. EPS, which prioritizes ecological restoration, delivers the largest net increase relative to 2020 (+46.51 Tg), highlighting the carbon benefits of conservation-oriented policies. TDS yields intermediate gains, allowing moderate tourism-driven land conversions while largely maintaining forest cover. As a critical ecological barrier in central China, the Qinling Mountains require land-use strategies that balance economic development with ecological integrity and food- security constraints. The study provides a policy-relevant framework for guiding low-carbon development in mountainous regions. By integrating scenario-based modeling with spatial analyses, it illustrates how targeted afforestation, sustainable tourism, and adaptive land management can jointly strengthen carbon sinks and enhance environmental resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 107947"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing ChatGPT’s legal reasoning in statutory land consolidation: The case of Cyprus","authors":"Demetris Demetriou","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107960","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107960","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Land consolidation remains a cornerstone of rural development, but its implementation is often hindered by complex statutory frameworks and lengthy procedures. In Cyprus, where land consolidation has historically reduced fragmentation, the process faces new challenges amid declining agricultural importance and evolving policy priorities such as climate change resilience, sustainable development, and urban land readjustment. At the same time, artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT are increasingly being considered as tools to support legal and planning processes. This study provides the first systematic evaluation of ChatGPT’s capacity to interpret and respond to legal questions derived from Cyprus’s Land Consolidation Law. Using a corpus of 100 questions across four levels of legal complexity, responses were assessed with a rubric measuring correctness, completeness, clarity, and interpretive depth. The results show strong performance in basic factual and procedural questions (98% accuracy for Type 1), moderate reliability in procedural and hypothetical reasoning (84% and 82% respectively), but significant decline in complex interpretive tasks (55% for Type 4). These findings highlight both the potential and the limitations of LLMs in statutory interpretation: they can provide accessible explanations and procedural guidance but cannot yet replace expert legal reasoning in ambiguous or high-stakes cases. The study contributes to the emerging discourse on AI in land policy and rural development, offering methodological insights for evaluating LLMs in domain-specific legal contexts and outlining implications for their responsible integration into planning, cadastral, and governance workflows.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 107960"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146095676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting ecological security patterns and network resilience under land-use change: Hexi Inland River Basin, China","authors":"Man Li ,&nbsp;Xuan Wang ,&nbsp;Huancai Liu ,&nbsp;Chao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107949","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107949","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climatic variation and anthropogenic activities cause drastic land-use change and seriously threaten local ecosystems, making ecological security assessment in arid regions a global priority. We proposed an innovative quantitative research framework for ecological security patterns (ESPs) construction, prediction, and resilience measurement based on land-use simulations. Using the Hexi Inland River Basin (HIRB) as a case study, we examined ESPs' evolution under Ecological Protection (EP), Natural Development (ND), and Economic Development (ED) models for 2030–2050, and proposed targeted governance strategies. Results: 1) In 2000–2020, ecological sources in the HIRB exhibited greater distribution in the south, ecological corridor quality improved overall, ecological pinch points increased exponentially, while ecological barriers decreased annually. 2) In 2030–2050, future ESPs showed the EP model as optimal, with the largest sources and fewest barriers; under the ND model, regional ESPs at the middle level; under the ED model, key ecological elements were at low levels, representing a low-development model. 3) Vulnerability and connectivity robustness showed ‘EP model&gt;ED model&gt;ND model’, indicating the EP model being superior in ecological network resilience in 2050. 4) This region should establish a regional governance pattern of ‘One Screen, One Horizontal, Three Verticals, and Multiple Green Points’ based on the EP model, and more attention should be paid to the “Green Points” located in downstream desert areas. Moreover, it is essential to further prioritize and refine land tenure systems to ensure the pragmatic implementation of this governance pattern. These findings provide scientific support for local governments in formulating ecological policies and offer evidence-based solutions for ESPs optimization in other arid and semi-arid inland river basins worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 107949"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The cost of ecological protection and restoration: Evidence from the impact of the Shan-shui project on land values","authors":"Zeng Shibo,&nbsp;Jin Gui","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107919","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107919","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Protecting and restoring ecosystems is a key pathway for reducing biodiversity loss globally. These measures are perceived to conflict with the interests of land resource allocation. This study evaluated the economic consequences of the most extensive and stringent ecological space regulation and restoration tool in Chinese history—the Shan-shui project. This study compiled data from 2016 to 2022 on China's ecological protection and restoration efforts and micro-level land transactions, and used a spatial regression discontinuity design to estimate how land use restrictions affect land transfer values. This study found that the Shan-shui project had a significant negative impact on overall land transfer value. The \"dual decline\" in land demand from both enterprises and residents serves as a key mechanism through which market actors respond to the decline in land transfer prices triggered by government regulatory measures. The price-suppressing effect of the Shan-shui project shows significant variation. Although this effect is not observed in the commercial land sector, it is statistically significant in both residential and industrial land. Moreover, the price impact of water-related projects is substantially stronger than the average effect observed across all project types. In summary, these findings provide new insights into understanding the impact of ecological protection and restoration on resource allocation and alleviating the conflict between development and protection.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 107919"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146000532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Land rights perceptions and farmer behavior: Evidence from Central Asia","authors":"Zarema Akhmadiyeva ,&nbsp;Thomas Herzfeld","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107964","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107964","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Secure land tenure is widely believed to foster agricultural investment. However, farmers’ subjective perceptions of land rights rather than legal entitlements may ultimately shape their land use decisions. This study analyzes how perceived land rights and their discrepancies with written rules influence farmers’ intentions to intensify land use. Building on the Theory of Planned Behavior and survey data from 955 farmers in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, we find that perceived land rights and their discrepancies play an important role in shaping intensification intentions, but through context-specific mechanisms. In Kazakhstan, perceived land rights positively influence farmers’ intentions only indirectly through attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control. In Uzbekistan, by contrast, perceived land rights are negatively associated with intensification intentions both directly and indirectly, suggesting that stronger perceived rights may discourage investment under rigid and centralized land governance. Moreover, underuse of legal rights undermines key behavioral drivers among Kazakh farmers, while violations of formal land use restrictions reduce intensification intentions among Uzbek farmers. These findings underscore the need to align formal regulations with local perceptions to enhance land policy effectiveness and tenure security in transitional contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 107964"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146079740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of cropland abandonment on food productivity in China's mountainous areas in 2050","authors":"Zhenyu Huang ,&nbsp;Qianwen Duan ,&nbsp;Jizhong Jin ,&nbsp;Minghong Tan ,&nbsp;Xue Wang ,&nbsp;Liangjie Xin ,&nbsp;Xiubin Li","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107951","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107951","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accelerated urbanization in China has prompted sustained population outflow from mountainous regions, intensifying cropland abandonment and threatening food security. Using a Random Forest model, this study analyzed the influencing factors behind cropland abandonment in China’s mountainous areas from 2000 to 2020. Multiple data sources and SSP-RCP scenarios were integrated to project abandonment patterns and associated losses in food productivity through 2050. The findings indicate an abandonment rate of 18.7 % during this period and show marked spatial variation. The rate was associated with higher cropland fragmentation, irregular shape, and poor connectivity. Under the high-forcing SSP5–8.5 scenario, the abandonment rate may rise to 36.8 % by 2050, which could reduce national food productivity by 11.3 %. Notably, high-productivity croplands in these areas are being lost at an accelerating pace, with the abandonment rate projected to increase from 5.1 % in 2020 to 17.6 % by 2050. This study provides a scientific foundation for understanding abandonment processes and formulating more targeted cropland protection and food security strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 107951"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Service-based resilience-building in Anthropogenic Socioeconomic-Ecological-Technological (ASET) systems: Hong Kong as the case","authors":"Hao Han ,&nbsp;Liang Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107939","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107939","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Building resilience in human settlements has garnered increasing attention due to heightened climate-related risks and ongoing urbanization, particularly in regions of the Global South. Connecting academic research with practical resilience-building efforts necessitates approaches that are robust, transparent, and scalable. Based on the Stimulus-Recovery-Adaptation (SRA) model, this study introduces an alternative service-based framework for assessing and enhancing the resilience of Anthropogenic Socioeconomic-Ecological-Technological (ASET) systems exposed to climate-related risks, with a case study on flood scenarios in Hong Kong. In contrast to the traditional subsystem-focused approach, this framework underscores life-sustaining services—such as healthcare, mobility, food supply, shelter, and education—as the cornerstone of urban resilience. The results demonstrate how service-based indicators provide practical, evidence-based insights that facilitate resilience planning and policymaking. This framework helps to clarify theoretical ambiguities, align resilience-building initiatives with public needs, and offers scalable strategies that strike a balance between short-term demands and long-term resilience and sustainability objectives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 107939"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revolution and evolution in Ethiopian land tenure: Strategic interests and ideological shifts during 50 years of reform","authors":"Tom Lavers","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107979","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107979","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Following the 1975 revolution, Ethiopia conducted a far-reaching land reform establishing a system of state ownership that remains to the present. This appears to justify the common narrative that subsequent governments have maintained the rural land tenure regime established by the revolution. However, this paper shows that rural tenure has changed significantly in the subsequent 50 years. After 1975 farmers held general rights to a share of community land, whereas subsequent reforms have established individual rights to particular plots. Incremental change culminated in a 2024 rural land proclamation that provides for rights of inheritance, rental and mortgage, all of which were prohibited in 1975. The process by which these changes came about also challenges the standard portrayal of Ethiopian federalism as a fiction to mask centralised domination: evolution took place through sub-national policy innovations and subsequent diffusion to the federal level. Theoretically, the paper engages with theories of property rights change. While acknowledging economic incentives and demography as contributing factors, it rejects simplistic ‘evolutionary’ theories of property rights. Instead, the paper emphasises the importance of a political economy approach, grounded in analysis of rulers’ strategies for maintaining power and their ideological commitments. Based on a process tracing methodology, which draws on key informant interviews and archival research conducted over 15 years, the paper shows that incremental change in land tenure reflects the shifting ideological commitments and survival strategies of an authoritarian regime, with periods of uncertainty and intra-elite divisions opening space for ideational transfer, sub-national experimentation and policy diffusion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 107979"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146152673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From pixels to policy: Multi-scale flood susceptibility mapping using interpretable machine learning for urban resilience","authors":"Su Jin Lee ,&nbsp;Yunhyoung Cho ,&nbsp;Ruo Yin Yang ,&nbsp;Steven Jige Quan","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107950","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107950","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban flooding poses escalating risks globally as climate change intensifies extreme precipitation events and urbanization accelerates impervious surface expansion. This study develops a comprehensive, interpretable framework for high-resolution flood susceptibility assessment in Jeju City, South Korea—a volcanic island city where rapid urbanization is transforming porous basaltic terrain into flood-vulnerable urban landscapes. We integrated multi-resolution gridded geospatial data (10 m, 30 m, 100 m) with four tree-based machine learning algorithms (Decision Tree, Random Forest, XGBoost, CatBoost) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to create an interpretable flood susceptibility system aligned with administrative boundaries for evidence-based urban planning. Random Forest at 10 m resolution emerged as the optimal configuration (AUC = 0.919), balancing predictive accuracy with superior recall performance and generalization stability essential for policy applications. SHAP-based interpretation revealed elevation, proximity to water bodies, and slope as dominant flood drivers, with anthropogenic infrastructure factors showing secondary influence. District-level analysis uncovered pronounced spatial heterogeneity in flood mechanisms: reservoir-dominated patterns in Ildo districts, river-influenced dynamics in coastal Samdo areas, and drainage-constrained vulnerabilities in Yeongdam-dong. This heterogeneity underscores the limitations of uniform city-scale models and validates the necessity of localized risk assessment. The framework's alignment with administrative boundaries enables evidence-based policy formulation, supporting targeted interventions from green infrastructure deployment to drainage retrofitting. By demonstrating how interpretable machine learning can bridge high-resolution geospatial analysis with jurisdictional planning frameworks, this research advances both methodological rigor and practical applicability for climate-resilient urban governance. The methodology's modular design facilitates transferability to other topographically complex coastal and island cities worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 107950"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146056047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}