Does city-county consolidation lead to regional integration of the housing market? Evidence from China

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI:10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107682

Liyuan Cui , Yujuan Hou , Huayi Yu

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Abstract

City-county consolidation is a common approach in metropolitan reorganization. This study examines its impact on the regional integration of the housing market in China through theoretical analysis and empirical evidence. Using a general equilibrium framework, we identify key mechanisms—economic and demographic agglomeration, and land supply—through which consolidation affects the housing market. Empirical analysis of city and district/county level data reveals that: (i) Consolidation increases land supply while having minimal impact on wages and population, resulting in a 4.9 % decrease in housing prices in consolidated cities. (ii) Housing prices increase by 3.1 % in previous county jurisdictions but decrease by 8.9 % in previous city jurisdictions. (iii) The negative effect is more pronounced in both prefecture-level and small cities. (iv) Economic and demographic agglomeration alongside land supply changes is the mechanism underlying these housing price dynamics. Our findings offer implications for administrative division adjustments and housing market stabilization.

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市县整合会导致房地产市场的区域一体化吗？来自中国的证据

市县合并是都市重组的一种常见方式。本研究通过理论分析和实证研究来考察其对中国住房市场区域一体化的影响。利用一般均衡框架，我们确定了房地产整合影响房地产市场的关键机制——经济和人口集聚以及土地供应。对市和区县一级数据的实证分析表明：(i)合并增加了土地供应，但对工资和人口的影响最小，导致合并城市的房价下降4.9% %。（ii）房价在以前的县辖区上涨了3.1 %，而在以前的城市辖区下降了8.9 %。（三）无论是地级市还是小城市，负面影响都更为明显。经济和人口集聚以及土地供应变化是这些房价动态的基础机制。我们的研究结果为行政区划调整和房地产市场稳定提供了启示。

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来源期刊

Land Use Policy ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

13.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

553

期刊介绍： Land Use Policy is an international and interdisciplinary journal concerned with the social, economic, political, legal, physical and planning aspects of urban and rural land use. Land Use Policy examines issues in geography, agriculture, forestry, irrigation, environmental conservation, housing, urban development and transport in both developed and developing countries through major refereed articles and shorter viewpoint pieces.