Economic History eJournal最新文献_第6页

The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share Across Sectors 美国各部门劳动收入占比下降

Economic History eJournal Pub Date : 2019-10-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3520716

Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz, C. Rada, Rudiger von Arnim

{"title":"The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share Across Sectors","authors":"Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz, C. Rada, Rudiger von Arnim","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3520716","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3520716","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides novel insights on the changing functional distribution of income in the post– war US economy. We present a Divisia index decomposition of the US labor share (1948–2017) by fourteen sectors. The decomposition method furnishes exact contributions from four components towards aggregate changes of the labor share: sectoral real compensation, sectoral labor productivity, the structure of the economy as measured by employment shares, and the structure of markets as measured by relative prices. Results are presented for the entire period as well as the “golden age” (1948–1979) and a “neoliberal era” (1979–2017), painting a rich and detailed picture of structural changes in the US economy. The manufacturing sector plays a dominant role: despite its continuously falling employment share, growth of real compensation matches that of labor productivity in the early period but falls far behind during the neoliberal era. Further, employment shifts towards stagnant sectors with relatively low real wages and productivity. We discuss these results in the context of Baumol’s and Lewis’s seminal contributions on dual economies. While the cost disease is apparent—employment shifts towards stagnant sectors, their relative prices rise, and the aggregate growth rate (of productivity) decreases—the originally suggested mechanism of upward real wage convergence is muted. The observed changes are instead compatible with a “reverse-Lewis” shift, where stagnant sectors act as a labor surplus sink, and dynamic sector labor experiences slowing real wage growth.","PeriodicalId":176096,"journal":{"name":"Economic History eJournal","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126600633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 26

Classifying Medieval Bracteates 中世纪苞片类的分类

Economic History eJournal Pub Date : 2019-10-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3463634

R. Svensson

引用次数: 3

The US Bond Market before 1926: Investor Total Return from 1793, Comparing Federal, Municipal and Corporate Bonds Part II: 1857 to 1926 1926年前的美国债券市场:1793年以来的投资者总回报，比较联邦债券、市政债券和公司债券。第二部分:1857年至1926年

Economic History eJournal Pub Date : 2019-09-12 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3269683

Edward F. Mcquarrie

{"title":"The US Bond Market before 1926: Investor Total Return from 1793, Comparing Federal, Municipal and Corporate Bonds Part II: 1857 to 1926","authors":"Edward F. Mcquarrie","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3269683","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3269683","url":null,"abstract":"US securities markets took root after Alexander Hamilton’s refunding of the Federal debt in the early 1790s. Accordingly, a market in bonds has been in operation in the US for over two centuries. Until recently, however, little was known about bond market returns prior to 1857. This paper focuses on investor holding period returns, using newly compiled data on bond prices, rather than focusing on the movement of yields, as in Homer (1963) and Macaulay (1938). It incorporates the relatively familiar Treasury securities from the years before President Andrew Jackson paid off the debt in 1835, but also includes state and city debt, which ballooned beginning in the 1820s, as well as corporate debt, from its beginnings about 1830 to its explosion after 1850. I find that all three classes of bonds provided investors with similar total returns prior to 1857, excepting a brief period in the 1840s when state securities plunged before recovering. I also find that over the entire 19th century, real bond returns considerably exceeded the long-term average return of 3.6% proposed for bonds in Siegel (2014). In explaining these high bond returns I identify problems with Siegel’s data sources, notably Homer’s mistaken interpretation of Macaulay’s data. I further find that in these early years, bonds sometimes out-performed stocks over periods of several decades, again contrary to Siegel’s thesis. The paper considers the implications of a demonstration that stocks and bonds performed differently in the nineteenth century as compared to the twentieth century.","PeriodicalId":176096,"journal":{"name":"Economic History eJournal","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117352573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

A Global Compass for the Great Divergence: Emissions vs. Production Centers of Gravity 1820-2008 大分化的全球指南针:排放与生产重心1820-2008

Economic History eJournal Pub Date : 2019-08-21 DOI: 10.1111/twec.12860

Caspar Sauter, Jean‐Marie Grether, Nicole A. Mathys

引用次数: 0

The Long Shadow of History? The Impact of Colonial Labor Institutions on Economic Development in Peru 历史的漫长阴影?殖民劳工制度对秘鲁经济发展的影响

Economic History eJournal Pub Date : 2019-08-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3559510

Leticia Arroyo Abad, Noel Maurer

引用次数: 10

Towards an Unstable Hook: The Evolution of Stock Market Integration Since 1913 走向不稳定的挂钩:1913年以来股票市场整合的演变

Economic History eJournal Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.3386/W26166

Cécile Bastidon, Michael D. Bordo, Antoine Parent, Marc Weidenmier

引用次数: 5

Debunking Protectionist Myths: Free Trade, the Developing World, and Prosperity 揭穿保护主义神话:自由贸易、发展中世界与繁荣

Economic History eJournal Pub Date : 2019-07-18 DOI: 10.1163/2210-7975_hrd-9985-20190014

A. Panagariya

{"title":"Debunking Protectionist Myths: Free Trade, the Developing World, and Prosperity","authors":"A. Panagariya","doi":"10.1163/2210-7975_hrd-9985-20190014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/2210-7975_hrd-9985-20190014","url":null,"abstract":"More than 170 years ago, Frederic Bastiat noted in his masterly work Economic Sophisms that the “opposition to free trade rests upon errors, or, if you prefer, upon half-truths.”1 Ever since Adam Smith successfully replaced mercantilist orthodoxy with free trade doctrine in his celebrated book The Wealth of Nations, free trade critics have repeatedly challenged the doctrine, offering half-truths to bolster their case. In each instance, free trade advocates have successfully exposed the falsehood of arguments made by critics. Although free trade has gained increasing acceptance among policymakers over time, challenges to it have remained omnipresent. \u0000 \u0000The latest of these challenges has manifested itself in increased tariffs on steel and aluminum in the United States and on a number of selected products in India. At the heart of these tariff hikes has been the belief that through targeted protection and industrial policy, governments can produce outcomes that are superior to those that free trade and competition would produce.2 Intellectual inspiration for this belief in recent decades has come from writings of a group of influential scholars who have interpreted the experiences of the highly successful East Asian “tiger” economies — Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan — during the early decades following the Second World War and of China during more recent decades as being the result of selective protection and industrial targeting. \u0000 \u0000Systematic evidence, however, demonstrates that free trade rather than selective protection and industrial policy must be credited with propelling these economies to miracle-level growth. Just as Bastiat observed, the case made by free trade critics in favor of industrial policy and selective protection is based on half-truths. Contrary to the assertions by these critics, a logical case for infant industry protection does not exist. Moreover, compelling empirical evidence linking trade openness causally to higher per capita incomes is now available.","PeriodicalId":176096,"journal":{"name":"Economic History eJournal","volume":"106 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134261470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Australian Macro-Econometric Models and Their Construction - A Short History 澳大利亚宏观计量经济模型及其构建——简史

Economic History eJournal Pub Date : 2019-07-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3420527

A. Pagan

引用次数: 4

The Phillips Curve at 60: Time for Time and Frequency 60点的菲利普斯曲线:时间和频率的时间

Economic History eJournal Pub Date : 2019-07-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3419354

Luís Aguiar‐Conraria, M. M. Martins, M. Soares

引用次数: 13

An Economic Theory of Surnames 姓氏的经济学理论

Economic History eJournal Pub Date : 2019-07-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3418074

Alastair Berg

引用次数: 1