Florence Halford, Kathryn Yates, Tom Clare, Jamie Lopez-Bernal, Meaghan Kall, Hester Allen
{"title":"Temporal changes to adult case fatality risk of COVID-19 after vaccination in England between May 2020 and February 2022: a national surveillance study.","authors":"Florence Halford, Kathryn Yates, Tom Clare, Jamie Lopez-Bernal, Meaghan Kall, Hester Allen","doi":"10.1177/01410768231216332","DOIUrl":"10.1177/01410768231216332","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>Risk of death after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has fallen during the pandemic, largely due to immunity from vaccination. In England, the timing and extent of this reduction varied due to staggered eligibility during the primary vaccination campaign, based on age and clinical risk group. Duration of protection is less well understood. Our objective was to estimate the case fatality risk (CFR) by vaccination status and time since last dose during a period of widespread community testing, to better understand the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and duration of protection.</p><p><strong>Design: </strong>SARS-CoV-2 cases diagnosed between May 2020 and February 2022 were linked to vaccine records from the National Immunisation Management System. CFR was calculated as the proportion of cases that died of COVID-19 per the death certificate, aggregated by week of specimen and stratified by 10-year age band and vaccination status.</p><p><strong>Setting: </strong>England, UK.</p><p><strong>Participants: </strong>A total of 10,616,148 SARS-CoV-2 cases, aged ≥18 years, recorded by England's laboratory reporting system.</p><p><strong>Main outcome measures: </strong>Case fatality risk of COVID-19, stratified by age band and vaccination status.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Overall, a reduction in CFR was observed for all age bands, with a clear temporal link to when the age group became eligible for primary vaccination and then the first booster. CFR increased with age (0.3% 50-59 years; 1.2% 60-69; 4.7% 70-79; 16.3% 80+) and was highest in the unvaccinated - albeit a reduction was observed over time. The highest CFR was seen in the unvaccinated 80+ group prior to vaccination rollout (30.6%). CFR was consistently lowest in vaccinated populations within 6 months of last dose, yet increased after over 6 months elapsed since last dose, across all age bands.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>COVID-19 CFR reduced after vaccination, with the lowest CFR seen across all age bands when vaccinated up to 6 months prior to specimen date. This provides some evidence for continued booster doses in older age groups.</p>","PeriodicalId":17271,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine","volume":" ","pages":"202-211"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11299124/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138804035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Resources and patience run thin in Sovietised NHS.","authors":"Kamran Abbasi","doi":"10.1177/01410768241270336","DOIUrl":"10.1177/01410768241270336","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17271,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine","volume":"117 6","pages":"191"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11299126/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141855854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Death Notices","authors":"","doi":"10.1177/01410768241255035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/01410768241255035","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17271,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":17.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141059660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"From JRSM Open","authors":"","doi":"10.1177/01410768241255034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/01410768241255034","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17271,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":17.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141059678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Certainty is an illusion: lessons for palliative care","authors":"Roderick D MacLeod","doi":"10.1177/01410768241249023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/01410768241249023","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17271,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":17.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140837274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An early 20th century handbook on ‘meta-analysis’: David Brunt’s The Combination of Observations","authors":"Stephen Senn","doi":"10.1177/01410768241249314","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/01410768241249314","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17271,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":17.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140837449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lucinda Hiam, Theodore Estrin-Serlui, Danny Dorling, Martin McKee, Jon Minton
{"title":"A deathly silence: why has the number of people found decomposed in England and Wales been rising?","authors":"Lucinda Hiam, Theodore Estrin-Serlui, Danny Dorling, Martin McKee, Jon Minton","doi":"10.1177/01410768231209001","DOIUrl":"10.1177/01410768231209001","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>The number of deaths occurring in private homes in England and Wales had been rising for years, increasingly rapidly from 2020. Media stories and research linked decomposing bodies found in private homes with pandemic-related social isolation. We aim to explore whether these incidents are one-offs or part of a wider trend.</p><p><strong>Design: </strong>Descriptive analysis of publicly available Office for National Statistics (ONS) data.</p><p><strong>Setting: </strong>England and Wales.</p><p><strong>Participants: </strong>All residents of England and Wales, 1979 to 2020.</p><p><strong>Main outcome measures: </strong>Using data from the Office for National Statistics, we calculate European Age Standardised Rates for deaths coded as R98 ('unattended death') and R99 ('other ill-defined and unknown causes of mortality') in the 10th version of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10), and the corresponding codes in ICD-9, by sex and age group from 1979 (when ICD-9 began) to 2020. These are proxy markers for deaths where decomposition precludes attribution of a specific cause at postmortem.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>While mortality from all other causes decreased from 1979 to 2020, the opposite was seen for deaths from R98 and R99 (or 'undefined deaths'), with men more affected than women. There was a sharp rise in these deaths in both sexes but in men particularly in the 1990s and 2000s, coinciding with a time when overall mortality was rapidly improving.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The increase in people found dead from unknown causes suggests wider societal breakdowns of both formal and informal social support networks. They are concerning and warrant urgent further investigation. We call on national and international authorities to consider measures that would make it possible to identify these deaths more easily in routine data.</p>","PeriodicalId":17271,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine","volume":" ","pages":"172-181"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11284264/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138291261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"International medical graduates.","authors":"Ali Sm Jawad","doi":"10.1177/01410768241249025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/01410768241249025","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17271,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine","volume":"117 5","pages":"160"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141442952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"International medical graduates.","authors":"Ali Sm Jawad","doi":"10.1177/01410768241249025","DOIUrl":"10.1177/01410768241249025","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17271,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine","volume":"117 5","pages":"160"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11316319/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141975970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Why is there an alarming rise in decomposing bodies?","authors":"Kamran Abbasi","doi":"10.1177/01410768241261275","DOIUrl":"10.1177/01410768241261275","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17271,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine","volume":"117 5","pages":"159"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11299204/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141442953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}