Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate最新文献

{"title":"Responding Trends of Ionospheric F2-Layer to Weaker Geomagnetic Activities","authors":"Yiding Chen, Libo Liu, H. Le, Hui Zhang, Rui-Tao Zhang","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2022005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2022005","url":null,"abstract":"Geomagnetic activities occur frequently in varying degrees. Strong geomagnetic activities, which have been widely investigated, occur occasionally; they can cause distinguishable and significant disturbances in the ionosphere. Weaker geomagnetic activities appear frequently, whereas their effects are generally difficult to be distinguished from complex ionospheric variations. Weaker geomagnetic activities play important roles in ionospheric day-to-day variability thus should deserve further attention. In this study long-term (longer than one solar cycle) measurements of the F2-layer critical frequency (foF2) were collected to statistically investigate ionospheric responses to weaker geomagnetic activities (Ap<60). The responding trends of low- to high-latitude foF2 to increasing geomagnetic activity are presented for the first time; they are statistically evident. Both increasing and decreasing trends can occur, depending on latitudes and seasons. The trend gradually transits from high-latitude decreasing trends to equatorial increasing trends with decreasing latitude, and this transition is seasonally dependent. As a result, the trend has seasonal difference at mid-latitudes. In general, the responding trend is more distinct at higher latitudes and in the equatorial region than at mid-latitudes, and the responding intensity is largest at higher latitudes. Although theoretically geomagnetic activities can disturb the ionosphere through multiple mechanisms, the morphology of the trend suggests that the frequent weaker geomagnetic activities modulate the high- to low-latitude ionosphere mainly through disturbing high-latitude thermospheric composition and further altering the background thermospheric circulation.","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2022-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46418210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"At the source of the polarisation of auroral emissions: experiments and modeling","authors":"Léo Bosse, J. Lilensten, N. Gillet, O. Pujol, C. Brogniez, Magnar Gullikstad Johnsen, S. Rochat, A. Delboulbé, S. Curaba","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2022004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2022004","url":null,"abstract":"A polarised radiative transfer model (POMEROL) has been developed to compute the polarisation measured by a virtual instrument in a given nocturnal environment. This single-scattering model recreates real world conditions (atmospheric and aerosol profiles, light sources with complex geometries at ground and in the sky, terrain obstructions...). It has been successfully tested at mid latitude where sky emissions are of weak intensity. We show here a series of comparisons between POMEROL predictions and polarisation measurements during two field campaigns in the auroral zone, in both quiet and active conditions. These comparisons show the strength of the model to assess the aerosol characteristics in the lower atmosphere by using a mesospheric line. They also show that three main upper atmosphere emissions are polarised in the upper atmosphere, namely the green atomic oxygen line at 557.7 nm and the $1^{st} N^+_2$ negative band at 391.4 nm (purple) and 427.8 nm (blue). This polarisation can be either created directly at the radiative de-excitation, or may  occur when the non-polarised emission crosses the ionospheric currents. We provide some of the potentialities it offers in the frame of space weather.","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2022-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47545311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Detecting undocumented trends in solar irradiance observations","authors":"T. Dudok de Wit","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2021041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2021041","url":null,"abstract":"Quantifying the long-term stability of solar irradiance observations is crucial for determining how the Sun varies in time and for detecting decadal climate change signals.\u0000The stability of irradiance observations is challenged by the degradation of instrumental sensitivity in space and by the  corrections that are needed to mitigate this degradation.\u0000We propose a new framework for detecting instrumental trends, based on the existing idea of comparing the solar irradiance at pairs of dates for which a proxy quantity reaches the same level. Using a parametric model we then reconstruct the trend and its confidence interval at all times. While this method cannot formally prove the instrumental origin of the trends, the modif{observation} of similar trends with different proxies provides strong evidence for a non-solar origin.\u0000We illustrate the method with spectral irradiance observations from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) mission, using various solar proxies such as sunspot number, MgII index, F10.7 index. The results support the existence of non-solar trends that exceed the level of solar cycle variability.\u0000After correcting the spectral irradiance for these trends, we find the difference between the levels observed at solar maximum and at solar minimum to be in better agreement with irradiance models.","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2022-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47308721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"GEANT4 simulation study of the response of a miniature radiation detector in Galactic Cosmic Rays and inside a spacecraft.","authors":"K. Karafasoulis, C. Papadimitropoulos, C. Potiriadis, C. Lambropoulos","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2022002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2022002","url":null,"abstract":"The Miniaturized Detector for Application in Space (MIDAS) is a compact device with dimensions 5 x 5 x 1 cm 3 which combines position sensitive Si detectors and a fast neutrons spectrometer. MIDAS is developed with purpose to act as a linear energy transfer (LET) spectrometer for the charged particles and measure dose and dose equivalent from both charged particles and neutrons. It is based on fully depleted monolithic active Si pixel sensors for the charged track and energy deposition measurements, while a plastic scintillator read out by a silicon photomultiplier is used to determine energy depositions from fast neutrons. A simulation study of the detector response in galactic cosmic ray (GCR) radiation fields with the aid of GEANT4 has been performed. Energy depositions and hit pixel addresses have been used to reconstruct tracks and calculate LET spectra. A method to calculate  in water from the measured LET has been elaborated. Dose rate in water and dose equivalent rate have been calculated.  The energy and particle composition of the radiation field produced by the interaction of GCR with the Al walls of a spacecraft model has been determined and the response of MIDAS in this radiation field has been investigated.","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2022-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48835562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Probabilistic hazard assessment: Application to geomagnetic activity","authors":"G. Richardson, Alan W P Thomson","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2022001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2022001","url":null,"abstract":"Probabilistic Hazard Assessment (PHA) provides an appropriate methodology for assessing space weather hazard and its impact on technology. PHA is widely used in the geosciences to determine the probability of exceedance of critical thresholds, caused by one or more hazard sources. PHA has proved useful where there are limited historical data to estimate the likelihood of specific impacts. PHA has also driven the development of empirical and physical models, or ensembles of models, to replace measured data. Here we aim to highlight the PHA method to the space weather community and provide an example of it could be used. In terms of space weather impact, the critical hazard thresholds might include the Geomagnetically Induced Current in a specific high voltage power transformer neutral, or the local pipe-to-soil potential in a particular metal pipe.\u0000We illustrate PHA in the space weather context by applying it to a twelve-year dataset of Earth-directed solar Coronal Mass Ejections (CME), which we relate to the probability that the global three-hourly geomagnetic activity index K p exceeds specific thresholds. We call this a ‘Probabilistic Geomagnetic Hazard Assessment’, or PGHA. This provides a simple but concrete example of the method. We find that the cumulative probability of K p > 6-, > 7-, > 8- and K p = 9o is 0.359, 0.227, 0.090, 0.011, respectively, following observation of an Earth-directed CME, summed over all CME launch speeds and solar source locations. This represents an order of magnitude increase in the a priori probability of exceeding these thresholds, according to the historical K p distribution. For the lower Kp thresholds, the results are distorted somewhat by our exclusion of coronal hole high speed stream effects. The PGHA also reveals useful (for operational forecasters) probabilistic associations between solar source location and subsequent maximum Kp .","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2022-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49442284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Great Aurora of 4 February 1872 observed by Angelo Secchi in Rome","authors":"F. Berrilli, L. Giovannelli","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2021046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2021046","url":null,"abstract":"Observation of auroras at low latitudes is an extremely rare event typically associated with major magnetic storms due to intense Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections. Since these energetic events represent one of the most important components of space weather their study is of paramount importance to understand the Sun-Earth connection. Due to the rarity of these events, being able to access all available information for the few cases studied is equally important. Especially if we refer to historical periods in which current accurate observations from ground-based instruments or from space were not available. Certainly, among these events we must include the great aurora of February 4, 1872. An event whose effects have been observed in different regions of the Earth. What we could consider today a global event, especially for its effects on the communication systems of the time, such as the transatlantic cable that allowed a connection between the United States and Europe since 1866.\u0000\u0000In this paper we describe the main results of the observations and studies carried out by Angelo Secchi at the Observatory of the Roman College and described in his Memoria sull’Aurora Elettrica del 4 Febbraio 1872  for the Notes of the Pontifical Academy of new Lincei. This note is extremely modern both in its multi-instrumental approach to the study of these phenomena and in its association between solar-terrestrial connection and technological infrastructures on the Earth. The Secchi's note definitely represents the first example of analysis and study of an event on a global scale, such as the Atlantic cable, affecting the Earth. What we nowadays call an extreme space weather event.","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2021-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49440355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An operational approach to forecast the Earth’s radiation belts dynamics","authors":"G. Bernoux, A. Brunet, É. Buchlin, M. Janvier, A. Sicard","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2021045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2021045","url":null,"abstract":"The Ca  index is a time-integrated geomagnetic index that correlates well with the dynamics of high-energy electron fluxes in the outer radiation belts. Therefore Ca can be used as an indicator for the state of filling of the radiation belts for those electrons. Ca also has the advantage of being a ground-based measurement with extensive historical records. In this work, we propose a data-driven model to forecast Ca up to 24 hours in advance from near-Earth solar wind parameters. Our model relies mainly on a recurrent neural network architecture called Long Short Term Memory that has shown good performances in forecasting other geomagnetic indices in previous papers. Most implementation choices in this study were arbitrated from the point of view of a space system operator, including the data selection and split, the definition of a binary classification threshold, and the evaluation methodology. We evaluate our model (against a linear baseline) using both classical and novel (in the space weather field) measures. In particular, we use the Temporal Distortion Mix (TDM) to assess the propensity of two time series to exhibit time lags. We also evaluate the ability of our model to detect storm onsets during quiet periods. It is shown that our model has high overall accuracy, with evaluation measures deteriorating in a smooth and slow trend over time. However, using the TDM and binary classification forecast evaluation metrics, we show that the forecasts lose some of their usefulness in an operational context even for time horizons shorter than 6 hours. This behaviour was not observable when evaluating the model only with metrics such as the root-mean-square error or the Pearson linear correlation. Considering the physics of the problem, this result is not surprising and suggests that the use of more spatially remote data (such as solar imaging) could improve space weather forecasts.","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2021-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47117804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A new climatological electron density model for supporting space weather services","authors":"M. Mainul Hoque, N. Jakowski, F. Prol","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2021044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2021044","url":null,"abstract":"The ionosphere is the ionized part of the Earth atmosphere, ranging from about 60 km up to several Earth radii whereas the upper part above about 1000 km height up to the plasmapause is usually called the plasmasphere. We present a new three-dimensional electron density model aiming for supporting space weather services and mitigation of propagation errors for trans-ionospheric signals. The model is developed by superposing the Neustrelitz Plasmasphere Model (NPSM) to an ionosphere model composed of separate F and E-layer distributions. It uses the Neustrelitz TEC model (NTCM), Neustrelitz Peak Density Model (NPDM) and the Neustrelitz Peak Height Model (NPHM) for the total electron content (TEC), peak ionization and peak height information. These models describe the spatial and temporal variability of the key parameters as function of local time, geographic/geomagnetic location, solar irradiation and activity. The model is particularly developed to calculate the electron concentration at any given location and time in the ionosphere for trans-ionospheric applications and named as the Neustrelitz Electron Density Model (NEDM2020). A comprehensive validation study is conducted against electron density in-situ data from DMSP and Swarm, Van Allen Probes and ICON missions, and topside TEC data from COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3 mission, bottom side TEC data from TOPEX/Poseidon mission and ground-based TEC data from International GNSS Service (IGS) covering both high and low solar activity conditions. Additionally, the model performance is compared with the 3D electron density model NeQuick2. Our investigation shows that the NEDM2020 performs better than the NeQuick2 when compared with the in-situ data from Van Allen Probes and ICON satellites and TEC data from COSMIC and TOPEX/Poseidon missions. When compared with DMSP and IGS TEC data both NEDM2020 and NeQuick2 perform very similarly.","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2021-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44483619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Solar Energetic Particle Event occurrence prediction using Solar Flare Soft X-ray measurements and Machine Learning","authors":"S. Aminalragia-Giamini, S. Raptis, A. Anastasiadis, A. Tsigkanos, I. Sandberg, A. Papaioannou, C. Papadimitriou, P. Jiggens, À. Aran, I. Daglis","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2021043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2021043","url":null,"abstract":"The prediction of the occurrence of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events has been investigated over many years and multiple works have presented significant advances in this problem. The accurate and timely prediction of SEPs is of interest to the scientific community as well as mission designers, operators, and industrial partners due to the threat SEPs pose to satellites, spacecrafts and crewed missions. In this work we present a methodology for the prediction of SEPs from the soft X-rays of solar flares associated with SEPs that were measured in 1 AU. We use an expansive dataset covering 25 years of solar activity, 1988-2013, which includes thousands of flares and more than two hundred identified and catalogued SEPs. Neural networks are employed as the predictors in the model providing probabilities for the occurrence or not of an SEP which are converted to yes/no predictions. The neural networks are designed using current and state-of the-art tools integrating recent advances in the machine learning field. The results of the methodology are extensively evaluated and validated using all the available data and it is shown that we achieve very good levels of accuracy with correct SEP occurrence prediction higher than 85% and correct no-SEP predictions higher than 92%. Finally we discuss further work towards potential improvements and the applicability of our model in real life conditions.","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2021-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48667645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Combining Swarm Langmuir probe observations, LEO-POD-based and ground-based GNSS receivers and ionosondes for prompt detection of ionospheric earthquake and tsunami signatures: case study of 2015 Chile-Illapel event.","authors":"W. Jarmołowski, Belehaki Anna, Hernández Pajares Manuel, Schmidt Michael, Goss Andreas, Wielgosz Paweł, Y.-T. C Heng, Krypiak-Gregorczyk Anna, Tsagouri Ioanna, Paouris Evangelos, Monte-Moreno Enric, García-Rigo Alberto, Milanowska Beata, Erdogan Eren, Graffigna Victoria, H. Roger","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2021042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2021042","url":null,"abstract":"The study investigates ionospheric electric field responses to the earthquake (EQ) of magnitude 8.3, and to the related seismic activity and tsunami triggered by the mainshock in Chile-Illapel region, at 22:54 UTC, in the evening of 16.09.2015. The work is a wider review of available ground and satellite data and techniques available in detection of seismically induced traveling ionospheric disturbances (TID) and irregularities of smaller scale. The data used in the experiment includes several types of ground and satellite observations from low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. The number of techniques applied here is also extended and includes spectral analysis of LEO along-track data and composed analysis of ground GNSS data. The timeframe of the analyses is focused on 16.09 and 17.09.2015, but also extended to several adjacent days, where an enhanced seismic activity has been recorded. Several examples of seismically triggered TIDs are shown, as detected by combined observations from more than one source and with the application of different methods, including spectral analysis. These disturbances occur before the mainshock, just after, or in time following this large EQ, and can be found in close neighborhood of Chile-Illapel or far away from the epicenter. The objective of the work was to demonstrate increasing number of available data and techniques, which can be limited when applied alone, but their combination can provide many advantages in the analysis of seismically disturbed ionosphere. The combination of LEO satellite data reaching all regions of the globe with local, but dense ground-based GNSS data and ionospheric HF sounders looks promising, especially in view of nearby availability of CubeSat constellations equipped with instruments for ionosphere sounding. An important conclusion coming from the study is a need for spectral analysis techniques in the processing of LEO along-track data and requirement of the validation of LEO observations with separate LEO data or ground-based data. A general, but key finding refers to the complementarities of different observations of ionospheric electric field, which is critically important in case of analyzing ionospheric irregularities in the extended and composed ionosphere, especially if not every sounding direction can successfully find it.","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2021-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43800370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}