Detecting undocumented trends in solar irradiance observations

IF 4.3 3区 材料科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC
T. Dudok de Wit
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Quantifying the long-term stability of solar irradiance observations is crucial for determining how the Sun varies in time and for detecting decadal climate change signals. The stability of irradiance observations is challenged by the degradation of instrumental sensitivity in space and by the  corrections that are needed to mitigate this degradation. We propose a new framework for detecting instrumental trends, based on the existing idea of comparing the solar irradiance at pairs of dates for which a proxy quantity reaches the same level. Using a parametric model we then reconstruct the trend and its confidence interval at all times. While this method cannot formally prove the instrumental origin of the trends, the \modif{observation} of similar trends with different proxies provides strong evidence for a non-solar origin. We illustrate the method with spectral irradiance observations from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) mission, using various solar proxies such as sunspot number, MgII index, F10.7 index. The results support the existence of non-solar trends that exceed the level of solar cycle variability. After correcting the spectral irradiance for these trends, we find the difference between the levels observed at solar maximum and at solar minimum to be in better agreement with irradiance models.
探测太阳辐照度观测中未记录的趋势
量化太阳辐照度观测的长期稳定性对于确定太阳如何随时间变化和检测十年气候变化信号至关重要。辐照度观测的稳定性受到空间仪器灵敏度下降以及缓解这种下降所需的校正的挑战。我们提出了一个检测仪器趋势的新框架,基于现有的想法,即在代理量达到相同水平的成对日期比较太阳辐照度。然后使用参数模型,我们在任何时候都重建趋势及其置信区间。虽然这种方法不能正式证明趋势的工具起源,但对具有不同代理的类似趋势的修改观察为非太阳起源提供了有力的证据。我们用太阳辐射和气候实验(SORCE)任务的光谱辐照度观测说明了该方法,使用了各种太阳代理,如太阳黑子数、MgII指数、F10.7指数。这些结果支持存在超过太阳周期可变性水平的非太阳趋势。在校正了这些趋势的光谱辐照度后,我们发现在太阳最大值和太阳最小值观测到的水平之间的差异与辐照度模型更为一致。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.20
自引率
4.30%
发文量
567
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