{"title":"探测太阳辐照度观测中未记录的趋势","authors":"T. Dudok de Wit","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2021041","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Quantifying the long-term stability of solar irradiance observations is crucial for determining how the Sun varies in time and for detecting decadal climate change signals.\nThe stability of irradiance observations is challenged by the degradation of instrumental sensitivity in space and by the corrections that are needed to mitigate this degradation.\nWe propose a new framework for detecting instrumental trends, based on the existing idea of comparing the solar irradiance at pairs of dates for which a proxy quantity reaches the same level. Using a parametric model we then reconstruct the trend and its confidence interval at all times. While this method cannot formally prove the instrumental origin of the trends, the \\modif{observation} of similar trends with different proxies provides strong evidence for a non-solar origin.\nWe illustrate the method with spectral irradiance observations from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) mission, using various solar proxies such as sunspot number, MgII index, F10.7 index. The results support the existence of non-solar trends that exceed the level of solar cycle variability.\nAfter correcting the spectral irradiance for these trends, we find the difference between the levels observed at solar maximum and at solar minimum to be in better agreement with irradiance models.","PeriodicalId":3,"journal":{"name":"ACS Applied Electronic Materials","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3000,"publicationDate":"2022-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Detecting undocumented trends in solar irradiance observations\",\"authors\":\"T. Dudok de Wit\",\"doi\":\"10.1051/swsc/2021041\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Quantifying the long-term stability of solar irradiance observations is crucial for determining how the Sun varies in time and for detecting decadal climate change signals.\\nThe stability of irradiance observations is challenged by the degradation of instrumental sensitivity in space and by the corrections that are needed to mitigate this degradation.\\nWe propose a new framework for detecting instrumental trends, based on the existing idea of comparing the solar irradiance at pairs of dates for which a proxy quantity reaches the same level. Using a parametric model we then reconstruct the trend and its confidence interval at all times. While this method cannot formally prove the instrumental origin of the trends, the \\\\modif{observation} of similar trends with different proxies provides strong evidence for a non-solar origin.\\nWe illustrate the method with spectral irradiance observations from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) mission, using various solar proxies such as sunspot number, MgII index, F10.7 index. The results support the existence of non-solar trends that exceed the level of solar cycle variability.\\nAfter correcting the spectral irradiance for these trends, we find the difference between the levels observed at solar maximum and at solar minimum to be in better agreement with irradiance models.\",\"PeriodicalId\":3,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"ACS Applied Electronic Materials\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-02-20\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"ACS Applied Electronic Materials\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"101\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2021041\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"材料科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ACS Applied Electronic Materials","FirstCategoryId":"101","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2021041","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"材料科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC","Score":null,"Total":0}
Detecting undocumented trends in solar irradiance observations
Quantifying the long-term stability of solar irradiance observations is crucial for determining how the Sun varies in time and for detecting decadal climate change signals.
The stability of irradiance observations is challenged by the degradation of instrumental sensitivity in space and by the corrections that are needed to mitigate this degradation.
We propose a new framework for detecting instrumental trends, based on the existing idea of comparing the solar irradiance at pairs of dates for which a proxy quantity reaches the same level. Using a parametric model we then reconstruct the trend and its confidence interval at all times. While this method cannot formally prove the instrumental origin of the trends, the \modif{observation} of similar trends with different proxies provides strong evidence for a non-solar origin.
We illustrate the method with spectral irradiance observations from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) mission, using various solar proxies such as sunspot number, MgII index, F10.7 index. The results support the existence of non-solar trends that exceed the level of solar cycle variability.
After correcting the spectral irradiance for these trends, we find the difference between the levels observed at solar maximum and at solar minimum to be in better agreement with irradiance models.