Journal of Modelling in Management最新文献

{"title":"Predicting daily precision improvement of Jakarta Islamic Index in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market using big data mining","authors":"Mohammed Ayoub Ledhem, Warda Moussaoui","doi":"10.1108/jm2-12-2022-0291","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jm2-12-2022-0291","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This paper aims to apply several data mining techniques for predicting the daily precision improvement of Jakarta Islamic Index (JKII) prices based on big data of symmetric volatility in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market. Design/methodology/approach This research uses big data mining techniques to predict daily precision improvement of JKII prices by applying the AdaBoost, K-nearest neighbor, random forest and artificial neural networks. This research uses big data with symmetric volatility as inputs in the predicting model, whereas the closing prices of JKII were used as the target outputs of daily precision improvement. For choosing the optimal prediction performance according to the criteria of the lowest prediction errors, this research uses four metrics of mean absolute error, mean squared error, root mean squared error and R -squared. Findings The experimental results determine that the optimal technique for predicting the daily precision improvement of the JKII prices in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market is the AdaBoost technique, which generates the optimal predicting performance with the lowest prediction errors, and provides the optimum knowledge from the big data of symmetric volatility in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market. In addition, the random forest technique is also considered another robust technique in predicting the daily precision improvement of the JKII prices as it delivers closer values to the optimal performance of the AdaBoost technique. Practical implications This research is filling the literature gap of the absence of using big data mining techniques in the prediction process of Islamic stock markets by delivering new operational techniques for predicting the daily stock precision improvement. Also, it helps investors to manage the optimal portfolios and to decrease the risk of trading in global Islamic stock markets based on using big data mining of symmetric volatility. Originality/value This research is a pioneer in using big data mining of symmetric volatility in the prediction of an Islamic stock market index.","PeriodicalId":16349,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Modelling in Management","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134885159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sustainable and resilient supplier selection, order allocation, and production scheduling problem under disruption utilizing conditional value at risk","authors":"Seyed Mojtaba Taghavi, Vahidreza Ghezavati, Hadi Mohammadi Bidhandi, Seyed Mohammad Javad Mirzapour Al-e-Hashem","doi":"10.1108/jm2-10-2022-0250","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jm2-10-2022-0250","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This paper aims to minimize the mean-risk cost of sustainable and resilient supplier selection, order allocation and production scheduling (SS,OA&PS) problem under uncertainty of disruptions. The authors use conditional value at risk (CVaR) as a risk measure in optimizing the combined objective function of the total expected value and CVaR cost. A sustainable supply chain can create significant competitive advantages for companies through social justice, human rights and environmental progress. To control disruptions, the authors applied (proactive and reactive) resilient strategies. In this study, the authors combine resilience and social responsibility issues that lead to synergy in supply chain activities. Design/methodology/approach The present paper proposes a risk-averse two-stage mixed-integer stochastic programming model for sustainable and resilient SS,OA&PS problem under supply disruptions. In this decision-making process, determining the primary supplier portfolio according to the minimum sustainable-resilient score establishes the first-stage decisions. The recourse or second-stage decisions are: determining the amount of order allocation and scheduling of parts by each supplier, determining the reactive risk management strategies, determining the amount of order allocation and scheduling by each of reaction strategies and determining the number of products and scheduling of products on the planning time horizon. Uncertain parameters of this study are the start time of disruption, remaining capacity rate of suppliers and lead times associated with each reactive strategy. Findings In this paper, several numerical examples along with different sensitivity analyses (on risk parameters, minimum sustainable-resilience score of suppliers and shortage costs) were presented to evaluate the applicability of the proposed model. The results showed that the two-stage risk-averse stochastic mixed-integer programming model for designing the SS,OA&PS problem by considering economic and social aspects and resilience strategies is an effective and flexible tool and leads to optimal decisions with the least cost. In addition, the managerial insights obtained from this study are extracted and stated in Section 4.6. Originality/value This work proposes a risk-averse stochastic programming approach for a new multi-product sustainable and resilient SS,OA&PS problem. The planning horizon includes three periods before the disruption, during the disruption period and the recovery period. Other contributions of this work are: selecting the main supply portfolio based on the minimum score of sustainable-resilient criteria of suppliers, allocating and scheduling suppliers orders before and after disruptions, considering the balance constraint in receiving parts and using proactive and reactive risk management strategies simultaneously. Also, the scheduling of reactive strategies in different investment modes is applied to this problem.","PeriodicalId":16349,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Modelling in Management","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134885161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A novel evaluation approach for the ability of older adults based on grey clustering model","authors":"Weiliang Zhang, Sifeng Liu, Junliang Du, Liangyan Tao, Wenjie Dong","doi":"10.1108/jm2-09-2022-0215","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jm2-09-2022-0215","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose The purpose of this study is to advance a novel evaluation index system and evaluation approach for ability of older adults in China. Design/methodology/approach This study constructed a comprehensive older adult ability evaluation index system with 4 primary indicators and 17 secondary indicators. Grey clustering analysis and entropy weight method are combined into a robust evaluation model for the ability of older adults. Findings The result demonstrates that the proposed grey clustering model is readily available to calculate the disability level of elderly individuals. The constructed index system more comprehensively considers all aspects of the disability of the elderly. Originality/value This study provides a quantitative method and a more reasonable index system for the determination of the disability level of the elderly.","PeriodicalId":16349,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Modelling in Management","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136010966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sourcing strategies for competing manufacturers in the toy industry","authors":"Peiyi Liang, Feng Yang, Feifei Shan","doi":"10.1108/jm2-03-2023-0059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jm2-03-2023-0059","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This paper aims to examine the optimal sourcing strategies and pricing decisions of competing toy manufacturers and to discuss how manufacturers’ decisions are impacted by competition. Design/methodology/approach The authors consider a single-period model to characterise the competition between two competing toy manufacturers. Both of them are free to choose between virgin material and recycled material. The authors consider two types of consumers: sensitive consumers who are concerned about product safety and prefer the toy made of virgin material and insensitive consumers who do not care what material is used in the toy. The competing manufacturers play a Cournot competition. Findings The results reveal a special case of a win-win situation for both the manufacturer and the consumer. In addition, an increasing number of sensitive consumers does not always raise the price of virgin-material toys. Practical implications The authors derive the manufacturer’s equilibrium sourcing strategies, corresponding market-clearing prices and profits obtained. Originality/value The paper investigates how toy manufacturers’ optimal sourcing strategies are impacted by competition, considering market segments.","PeriodicalId":16349,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Modelling in Management","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135488862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fuzzy cost, revenue efficiency assessment and target setting in fuzzy DEA: a fuzzy directional distance function approach","authors":"Javad Gerami, Mohammad Reza Mozaffari, Peter Wanke, Yong Tan","doi":"10.1108/jm2-05-2022-0121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jm2-05-2022-0121","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This study aims to present the cost and revenue efficiency evaluation models in data envelopment analysis in the presence of fuzzy inputs, outputs and their prices that the prices are also fuzzy. This study applies the proposed approach in the energy sector of the oil industry. Design/methodology/approach This study proposes a value-based technology according to fuzzy input-cost and revenue-output data, and based on this technology, the authors propose an approach to calculate fuzzy cost and revenue efficiency based on a directional distance function approach. These papers incorporated a decision-maker’s (DM) a priori knowledge into the fuzzy cost (revenue) efficiency analysis. Findings This study shows that the proposed approach obtains the components of fuzzy numbers corresponding to fuzzy cost efficiency scores in the interval [0, 1] corresponding to each of the decision-making units (DMUs). The models presented in this paper satisfies the most important properties: translation invariance, translation invariance, handle with negative data. The proposed approach obtains the fuzzy efficient targets corresponding to each DMU. Originality/value In the proposed approach, by selecting the appropriate direction vector in the model, we can incorporate preference information of the DM in the process of evaluating fuzzy cost or revenue efficiency and this shows the efficiency of the method and the advantages of the proposed model in a fully fuzzy environment.","PeriodicalId":16349,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Modelling in Management","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135825463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Futuristic portfolio optimization problem: wavelet based long short-term memory","authors":"Shaghayegh Abolmakarem, F. Abdi, K. Khalili-Damghani, H. Didehkhani","doi":"10.1108/jm2-09-2022-0232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jm2-09-2022-0232","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to propose an improved version of portfolio optimization model through the prediction of the future behavior of stock returns using a combined wavelet-based long short-term memory (LSTM).\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000First, data are gathered and divided into two parts, namely, “past data” and “real data.” In the second stage, the wavelet transform is proposed to decompose the stock closing price time series into a set of coefficients. The derived coefficients are taken as an input to the LSTM model to predict the stock closing price time series and the “future data” is created. In the third stage, the mean-variance portfolio optimization problem (MVPOP) has iteratively been run using the “past,” “future” and “real” data sets. The epsilon-constraint method is adapted to generate the Pareto front for all three runes of MVPOP.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The real daily stock closing price time series of six stocks from the FTSE 100 between January 1, 2000, and December 30, 2020, is used to check the applicability and efficacy of the proposed approach. The comparisons of “future,” “past” and “real” Pareto fronts showed that the “future” Pareto front is closer to the “real” Pareto front. This demonstrates the efficacy and applicability of proposed approach.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000Most of the classic Markowitz-based portfolio optimization models used past information to estimate the associated parameters of the stocks. This study revealed that the prediction of the future behavior of stock returns using a combined wavelet-based LSTM improved the performance of the portfolio.\u0000","PeriodicalId":16349,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Modelling in Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42147749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of service agents on customer satisfaction and loyalty: mediating role of Chatbots","authors":"Muhammad Hasnain Abbas Naqvi, Hongyu Zhang, Mishal Hasnain Naqvi, Li Kun","doi":"10.1108/jm2-01-2023-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jm2-01-2023-0004","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to determine whether or not fashion retail brands can maintain their essence by providing personalized care through conventional face-to-face interactions or the use of e-services.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000An exploratory investigation is being conducted to attain this goal. According to the findings of this research, Chatbots have an impact on consumer loyalty. The quality of a Chatbot’s system, service and information are all critical to providing a positive consumer experience.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The study concluded that Chatbot e-services might potentially enable dynamic and fascinating interactions between firms and their consumers. To personalize a Chatbot, firms might change the tone of the language used. Customers are more likely to use a Chatbot if it resembles a real person, which increases their pleasure and confidence in the product.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000More precisely, the emphasis of the inquiry was on Chatbot, a relatively new digital tool that offers user-friendly, personalized and one-of-a-kind support to customers. Using information supplied by consumers, the authors examine a five-dimensional model that gauges how customers feel about Chatbots in terms of their ability to communicate with users, offer amusement, be trendy, personalize interactions and solve problems.\u0000","PeriodicalId":16349,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Modelling in Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46734028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Do wholesale pricing strategies matter during asymmetric disruptions? A game theoretic analysis","authors":"S. Raju, Rofin T.M., P. S, Jagan Jacob","doi":"10.1108/jm2-12-2022-0289","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jm2-12-2022-0289","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000In most economies, there are rules from the market regulators or government to sell at an equal wholesale price (EWP). But when one upstream channel is facing a negative demand disruption and another positive, EWP can create extra pressure on the disadvantageous supply chain partner, which faces negative disruption. The purpose of this study is to analyse the impact of EWP and the scope of the discriminatory wholesale price (DWP) during disruptions.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000For the study, the authors used a dual-channel supply chain consisting of a manufacturer, online retailer (OR) and traditional brick-and-mortar (BM) retailer. Stackelberg game is used to model the interaction between the upstream and downstream channel partners, and the horizontal Nash game to analyse the interaction within downstream channel partners. For modelling asymmetric disruption, the authors took instances from the lock-down and post-lock-down periods of the COVID-19 pandemic, where consumers flow from BM retailer to OR store.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000By analysing the disruption period, the authors found that this asymmetric disruption is detrimental to the BM channel, favourable to OR and has no impact on the manufacturer. But with DWP, the authors found that the profit of the BM channel and manufacturer can be increased during disruption. Though the profit of the OR decreased, it was found to be higher than in the pre-disruption period. Under DWP, the consumer surplus increased during disruption, making it favourable for the customers also. Thus, DWP can aid in creating a win-win strategy for all the supply chain partners during asymmetric disruption. Later as an extension to the study, the authors analysed the impact of the consumer transfer factor and found that it plays a crucial role in the optimal decisions of the channel partner during DWP.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000Very scant literature analyses the intersection of DWP and disruptions. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study, for the first time uses DWP as a tool to help the disadvantageous supply chain partner during asymmetric disruptions. The study findings will assist the government, market regulators and manufacturers in revamping the wholesale pricing policies and strategies to help the disadvantageous supply chain partner during asymmetric disruption.\u0000","PeriodicalId":16349,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Modelling in Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49557012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effect of reinsurance treaties on the cedent loss reserving","authors":"Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi, Fatemeh Atatalab","doi":"10.1108/jm2-07-2022-0178","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jm2-07-2022-0178","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The usual, simple and computationally expensive recovery payment method for a given reinsurance treaty, besides the total run-off triangle, builds a new run-off triangle, say recovery run-off triangle, for the reinsurer’s contribution and predicts the reinsurer’s contribution to the total loss reserves. This paper, without building a recovery run-off triangle, uses the available prior knowledge about a reinsurance treaty to predict the cedent’s loss reserve under five reinsurance treaties.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The authors propose a new solution to the problem of how to consider reserving issues when there is a reinsurance treaty for a portfolio of general insurance policies. Considering this when determining pricing or making capital decisions is very important.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000In particular, it considers the quota share (QS) treaty, surplus (SPL) treaty, excess-of-loss (XL) treaty, largest claims reinsurance (LCR) treaty and excédent du coût moyen relatif (ECOMOR) treaty. Then, it develops a theoretical foundation for predicting the cedent’s loss reserve and evaluating such prediction using the mean square error of prediction (MSEP). The impact of such reinsurance treaties on the variability of the cedent’s loss reserve has been investigated through a simulation study.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This paper, without building a recovery run-off triangle, uses the available prior knowledge about a reinsurance treaty to predict the cedent’s loss reserve under five reinsurance treaties. In particular, it considers the QS treaty, SPL treaty, XL treaty, LCR treaty and ECOMOR treaty. Then, it develops a theoretical foundation for predicting the cedent’s loss reserve and evaluating such prediction using the MSEP. The impact of such reinsurance treaties on the variability of the cedent’s loss reserve has been investigated through a simulation study.\u0000","PeriodicalId":16349,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Modelling in Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43446303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying and exploring the relationship among the critical success factors of sustainability toward consumer behavior","authors":"S. Zaman, Simonov Kusi‐Sarpong","doi":"10.1108/jm2-06-2022-0153","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jm2-06-2022-0153","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this study is to find out what is the relationship between sustainability toward consumer behavior. Consumer behavior is the method of choosing, buying and using goods and services with an attachment to needs and wants. Now consumers are aware about sustainability, they make purchase decisions according to environmental safety, benefit to the society and increase economic growth.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study validates the result through experts in textile industry by using the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory approach. This method has many benefits which provide decision makers and experts to understand the interdependence and influential relation between the criteria by hierarchical approach.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000According to the results, green culture (F8) and green brand (F3) are the most influential (causal) factors and exert a substantial amount of influence over other factors for achieving organizational performance and sustainability. On the other hand, past experience (F14) and time pressure (F12) are the most influenced (effect) factors that are highly influenced by other factors.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The study conducted in Pakistan underscores the significance of maintaining a healthy and pristine environment for future generations. Both consumers and organizations play a vital role in this endeavor. It is imperative that they actively promote and support goods and services that advocate for sustainability.\u0000\u0000\u0000Social implications\u0000Mangers should use long-term strategies that meet the high product value to enhance the organization’s reputation, so it will have positive consumer perception. If managers make policies to implement natural resources in their raw material, so this policy avoids conflicts and maintains a balance in our society.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This research delves into the complexities and subtleties associated with the identification and examination of the interconnections between the success factors of sustainability and consumer behavior.\u0000","PeriodicalId":16349,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Modelling in Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44715612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}