Journal of Industrial Ecology最新文献

{"title":"Stand-alone power-to-X production dynamics: A multi-method approach to quantify the emission-cost reduction trade-off","authors":"Uwe Langenmayr,&nbsp;Paul Heinzmann,&nbsp;Alexander Schneider,&nbsp;Manuel Ruppert,&nbsp;Andreas Rudi,&nbsp;Wolf Fichtner","doi":"10.1111/jiec.70085","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.70085","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Power-to-X (PtX) processes allow for increased utilization of renewable energy in sectors like transportation, heat, and industry, where greenhouse gas emissions are hard to abate or irreducible. However, due to significantly higher production costs than conventional alternatives and the requirement of lower greenhouse gas footprints, PtX processes must aim for low-cost and low-emission production. This work introduces a multi-method approach by combining process simulation, techno-economic analysis, life cycle assessment, renewable electricity generation modeling, and multi-objective optimization to investigate the relationship between PtX production costs and greenhouse gas emissions to support investment decisions. The approach is applied to produce renewable hydrogen, Fischer–Tropsch crude, and methanol by considering global weather data with hourly temporal resolution. Our results show that locations with high wind capacity factors achieve the lowest costs and greenhouse gas emissions, and locations with high solar PV capacity factors perform worst in the context of greenhouse gas emissions when producing PtX products, primarily due to the emission-intensive production of solar PV modules. Locations with mixed capacity factors of wind and solar PV allow cost-efficient greenhouse gas emissions reduction since solar PV capacities can be substituted with a combination of wind generation capacities and battery storage. In addition, flexible PtX technologies reduce costs and greenhouse gas emissions significantly since fewer auxiliary components, like storage, are needed.</p>","PeriodicalId":16050,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","volume":"29 5","pages":"1791-1805"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jiec.70085","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Low-carbon power transition may shift mercury emissions from coal combustion to nonferrous metal smelting","authors":"Kun Peng,&nbsp;Peipei Tian,&nbsp;Jiashuo Li","doi":"10.1111/jiec.70075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.70075","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rapidly transitioning to low-carbon energy sources is essential not only for reducing the direct emissions of toxic mercury (Hg) from coal combustion but also for fulfilling our commitments under the Minamata Convention. However, this shift could significantly increase the demand for nonferrous metals that are intensive in Hg, potentially negating the benefits of reduced Hg emissions. The effect of these nonferrous metal inputs on the overall effectiveness of Hg reduction efforts within the power sector's transition is an area that requires further investigation. Here, we evaluate the impact of China's low-carbon power transition on Hg emissions from coal combustion and nonferrous metal (mainly copper, zinc, and lead) smelting. We find that the low-carbon power transition will lead to a significant reduction (101.81 tons) of over 90% in annual Hg emissions originating from coal combustion during the period from 2021 to 2060. Unexpectedly, the pursuit of renewable energy, particularly in photovoltaic and wind power, is likely to result in a twofold increase in annual mercury (Hg) emissions from nonferrous metal smelting, totaling 5.07 tons, under current industry practices. The cumulative emissions from nonferrous metal smelting is estimated to be 370.44 tons during 2021–2060, including 65.80% power transmission equipment related and 34.30 % power generation equipment related emissions. Overall reduction through the adoption of coordinated measures in the power and nonferrous metals sectors could cut cumulative Hg emissions from nonferrous metal smelting by 57% (211.37 tons) during 2021–2060. The study emphasizes the critical need to manage emissions from metal production for a sustainable low-carbon energy transition.</p>","PeriodicalId":16050,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","volume":"29 5","pages":"1763-1775"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Time-differentiating methods for life cycle assessment of the industry transition toward climate neutrality: A review","authors":"Ladislaus Lang-Quantzendorff,&nbsp;Martin Beermann","doi":"10.1111/jiec.70068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.70068","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The industry transition toward climate neutrality requires manifold adaptations of present production processes, which include novel technologies using renewable energy carriers. The established method of life cycle assessment (LCA), designed to evaluate static processes, reaches its limits when applied to changing systems. We have conducted a systematic literature review on time-differentiating LCA methods for assessing transforming processes in their transition toward climate neutrality. On closer examination, three major types of dynamics emerge: transition dynamics, process dynamics, and dynamic impact assessment. Transition dynamics represent the gradual modification of the production. Process dynamics take into account the duration of processes and their temporal dependency on each other. Dynamic impact assessment demonstrates how the biosphere reacts to dynamic emissions. The reviewed literature delivered several examples of prospective LCA dealing with scenario integration or ex ante observations of emerging technologies. These typically differentiate only the transition temporally. By contrast, some methodology papers for dynamic LCA cover all three types of dynamics. Those comprise absolute changes and relative time dependence between processes, as well as metrics for the dynamic impact assessment of greenhouse gases. In conclusion, literature uses the terms dynamic and prospective LCA for overlapping research areas, both of which are highly relevant for evaluating a transforming system. However, methods are mostly applied separately in use cases also not related to an explicit decarbonization target. Aiming for harmonization of both concepts, we identified promising building blocks in a combined dynamic and prospective LCA to assess transition paths toward climate-neutral production.</p>","PeriodicalId":16050,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","volume":"29 5","pages":"1523-1550"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jiec.70068","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Material stocks and embodied carbon in UK buildings: An archetype-based, bottom-up, GIS approach","authors":"Charles Gillott,&nbsp;Maud Lanau,&nbsp;Elen Mitchell Reid,&nbsp;Farhana Sharmin,&nbsp;Danielle Densley Tingley","doi":"10.1111/jiec.70066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.70066","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Decarbonizing construction through a circular economy requires an in-depth understanding of the materials stocked within, and flows into, between, and beyond, the global built environment. Archetype-based bottom-up material stock analysis (MSA) is increasingly used to estimate the quantity, location, and embodied carbon of different construction materials within existing buildings. European MSA studies typically employ archetypes based on building use (e.g., residential/non-residential) and/or age (e.g., historic/modern), potentially missing significant variation in material composition across different construction types. Such work also generally focuses on residential buildings and derives aggregated and/or synthetic material intensities (MIs), with non-residential buildings in the United Kingdom rarely being considered through real-world design data. This paper investigates the suitability of different archetyping approaches in the bottom-up estimation of material stocks and embodied carbon in UK buildings. Concrete is revealed to consistently contribute the majority of material mass irrespective of use or construction type, with steel consistently representing a majority of superstructural embodied carbon. Despite the relative agreement between overall structural MIs for use- and construction-based archetypes, varying material and sub-/superstructural composition introduces increased heterogeneity in individual-material and sub-building MIs when considering building construction type. Mapping of use- and construction-based MIs to the building stock level is shown to be inhibited by the infrequent specification of construction type within the utilized inventory. This gives rise to a novel, parallel use and/or construction archetyping approach, reiterating the need for the inclusion of building construction types within both MSA archetyping approaches and national building inventories.</p>","PeriodicalId":16050,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","volume":"29 5","pages":"1748-1762"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jiec.70066","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Recyclability: Redefining the concept for the circular economy","authors":"Hannes Geist,&nbsp;Frank Balle","doi":"10.1111/jiec.70082","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.70082","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Recyclability is a vital concept for the circular economy (CE). Recycling is an inevitable processing path in the technosphere of the CE, making good recyclability of materials and products a fundamental design requirement. Recyclability concepts in laws and standards are based on a homogeneous, but highly oversimplified, mass-based and Boolean understanding, potentially stabilizing downcycling in the linear economy. Scientific literature shows heterogeneous concepts, more aligned with the CE but lacking a common terminology and taxonomy. Therefore, a novel improved recyclability concept for the CE was developed, following an integrative research approach for theory recontextualization of a mature topic. The concept comprises a definition, dimensions, and levels of recyclability, as well as types of recyclability investigations and corresponding types of recyclability. It can help structure the discourse across disciplines, create comparable results through a shared language, and ensure consistency with the CE concept. Interoperable operationalizations of recyclability for the CE can be developed or existing ones assessed based on this in future work.</p>","PeriodicalId":16050,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","volume":"29 5","pages":"1505-1522"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jiec.70082","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"India's household GHG emissions from basic goods: Regional patterns and inequalities","authors":"Shelly Bogra,&nbsp;Felix Creutzig,&nbsp;Peter-Paul Pichler","doi":"10.1111/jiec.70059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.70059","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;India's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trajectory will be critical to keeping global temperature rise well below 2 &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;∘&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$^{circ}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; C. India has a vast and heterogeneous socio-economic landscape that shapes household consumption patterns across regions and settlement types. To resolve differences at the regional, urban/rural, and socio-economic levels, we use a bottom-up method based on physical quantities and regional prices for thirty-three basic household goods. Here we show that this high-resolution approach, applied to 35 states and union territories in India for the period 2011–2012, reveals substantial differences in household GHG emissions across expenditure groups and settlement types. Per capita emissions are higher in urban areas (2.7 tCO &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; eq) than in rural areas (2.2 tCO &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; eq), but rural households account for two-thirds of total household emissions (2.6 GtCO &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; eq). Major contributors include fuel and lighting (1015 MtCO &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; eq), milk and dairy products (610 MtCO &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; eq), meat and eggs (430 MtCO &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; eq), and transportation (275 MtCO &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 ","PeriodicalId":16050,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","volume":"29 5","pages":"1736-1747"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jiec.70059","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Non-implementation as a driver of circular economy evolution: A Luhmannian systems-theoretical perspective","authors":"Vladislav Valentinov,&nbsp;Felix Carl Schultz","doi":"10.1111/jiec.70084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.70084","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The circular economy (CE) has emerged as a transformative paradigm for addressing the intertwined crises of environmental degradation and resource scarcity, grounded in the moral principles of intergenerational equity, environmental sustainability, and shared responsibility. However, in the European Union (EU), the development of the CE has been hindered by technological, economic, regulatory, and cultural barriers, leaving its compelling moral case significantly under-implemented. Drawing on Luhmann's systems theory, this forum article reconceptualizes the moral case for the CE as a normative expectation—a societal “ought” that retains its validity even when violated. These violations, we argue, function as productive irritations, catalyzing the evolution of the CE by driving innovation, societal critique, and gradual adaptation. We analyze this evolutionary trajectory by distinguishing three stages of CE development in the EU: (i) semantic articulation, (ii) structural consolidation, and (iii) emergent alignment of semantics and structures. Our argument highlights the importance of embracing the gaps between normative aspirations and practical realities as a vital resource for advancing CE development, offering valuable insights for scholarship, policymakers, and businesses.</p>","PeriodicalId":16050,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","volume":"29 5","pages":"1461-1472"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jiec.70084","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating strategies for enhancing factors influencing sharing economy practices in the construction industry: A hybrid SWARA–WASPAS approach","authors":"Ishara Rathnayake,&nbsp;J Jorge Ochoa,&nbsp;Ning Gu,&nbsp;Raufdeen Rameezdeen,&nbsp;Larissa Statsenko,&nbsp;Sukhbir Sandhu,&nbsp;Sajad Fayezi","doi":"10.1111/jiec.70077","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.70077","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The sharing economy (SE) practices are rapidly gaining widespread attention as a novel approach to achieve circular economy objectives across diverse industries, highlighting their value in enhancing resource efficiency through collaborative consumption. However, the application of SE practices in the construction industry (CI) remains comparatively low due to the absence of identification of factors and strategies to enhance overall sharing practices. In light of this, the present study aims to identify and prioritize the strategies for enhancing factors influencing SE practices in the CI. This study proposes a framework incorporating Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) and Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS) techniques to achieve the aim of this study. The relative influence of factors was evaluated using SWARA, while WASPAS was used to prioritize strategies of SE practices in the construction domain. Twenty-four SE factors and 29 strategies were identified and finalized through the preliminary data collection stage (literature review, semi-structured interviews, and questionnaire survey) and discussions with industry experts as the primary data collection. The findings reveal that “additional income generation” is the top-ranked factor, while “provide education and training and establish incubation centers” is the top-ranked strategy in SE practices in the CI. In the end, a sensitivity analysis with 15 experiments was conducted to observe the robustness of the results. This study presents a structured and systematic approach for evaluating SE factors and strategies while presenting a roadmap to successfully implement SE practices in the construction domain.</p>","PeriodicalId":16050,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","volume":"29 5","pages":"1698-1717"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jiec.70077","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Synergistic sectoral actions can accelerate carbon reduction in consumption-intensive regions","authors":"Yujia Xiao,&nbsp;Minggao Xue,&nbsp;Xiaoling Zhang","doi":"10.1111/jiec.70078","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.70078","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Cities play a pivotal role in global carbon mitigation, but conventional accounting approaches often obscure the responsibilities of sectors that consume energy without directly emitting, particularly in service-oriented urban systems. This study develops a seven-step analytical framework centered on the scope-based emissions method to address the resulting mismatch between sectoral functions and carbon responsibilities in consumption-driven cities. Applied to Hong Kong, the framework reallocates indirect emissions based on inter-sectoral electricity flows and reduces the supply-to-demand emission distribution from 3.52 to 1.25, promoting a fairer distribution of emission responsibilities among sectors. Beyond tracing emission dynamics, it simulates mitigation scenarios under shared socioeconomic pathways to assess the value of cross-sectoral coordination. Results show that redistributing responsibilities and enhancing cross-sectoral collaboration can improve city-level mitigation performance, with synergistic policies projected to reduce emissions by 37.3% and 19.1% by 2050 compared to limited or no coordination. These findings underscore the value of integrating emission analysis with governance needs, offering an actionable tool to reassign responsibilities and coordinate mitigation in cities where sectoral misalignment hinders climate action.</p>","PeriodicalId":16050,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","volume":"29 5","pages":"1718-1735"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jiec.70078","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"System dynamics modeling of the global nickel supply system at a mine-level resolution: Toward prospective dynamic criticality and resilience data","authors":"Jessie E. Bradley,&nbsp;Willem L. Auping,&nbsp;René Kleijn,&nbsp;Jan H. Kwakkel,&nbsp;Gavin M. Mudd,&nbsp;Benjamin Sprecher","doi":"10.1111/jiec.70072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.70072","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Securing the availability of enough metals to fulfill demand is a critical societal concern. Models of metal supply systems can help enhance our understanding of these systems and identify strategies to reduce material criticality and improve resilience. In this work, we introduce a novel approach to modeling metal supply systems, using nickel as a case study. Our approach combines system dynamics modeling, in which various feedback loops influence future outcomes, with the higher sectoral and geographical detail of industrial ecology (IE) methods and data on individual mines. We also include extensive uncertainty analyses through exploratory modeling and analysis. Using this combined modeling approach, we explore the development and resilience of the global nickel supply system between 2015 and 2060 under various uncertainties and policy levers. Our results show that incorporating feedback effects leads to more realistic demand behavior and resource depletion patterns compared to traditional dynamic material flow analysis. Market feedback enhances resilience, but cannot fully offset criticality risks. Sectoral disaggregation reveals increased criticality risks due to the energy transition, which can be mitigated by increasing opportunities for substitution, product lifetime extension, recycling, exploration, capacity expansion, and by-product recovery. Geographical disaggregation highlights the resilience benefits of diverse supply sources, as well as the effects of changing regional market shares on sustainability impacts, ore grade variability, and by-product dynamics. Our combined modeling approach is a step toward prospective, dynamic criticality assessment, in which system changes and future risks are accounted for when determining material criticality and policy recommendations.</p>","PeriodicalId":16050,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","volume":"29 5","pages":"1666-1683"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jiec.70072","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}