Journal of Epidemiology最新文献

{"title":"The Use of Premixed Drugs in Commodity Packets in the Population: Prevalence and Correlates Revealed by the 2018 National Survey of Substance Use in Taiwan.","authors":"Shang-Chi Wu, Lian-Yu Chen, Po-Chang Hsiao, Te-Tien Ting, Cheng-Fang Yen, Shu-Sen Chang, Chung-Yi Li, Hao-Jan Yang, Chia-Feng Yen, Chuan-Yu Chen, Jiun-Hau Huang, Yu-Kang Tu, Wei J Chen","doi":"10.2188/jea.JE20220356","DOIUrl":"10.2188/jea.JE20220356","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Administering premixed drugs in commodity packets was first reported in Asia in 2015, but there continues to be a dearth of related population-based data. This study aimed at examining (1) the prevalence of drug-packet use in the population and (2) the sociodemographic profiles, particularly gender distribution, of drug-packet users.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data were derived from a survey of 18,626 Taiwanese civilians, aged 12-64 years, using stratified, multi-stage, random sampling in 2018. Participants anonymously completed a computer-assisted self-interview on tablet computers which covered the use and problematic use of illicit drugs/inhalants, prescription drugs, and other psychoactive substances.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Approximately 1.46% of respondents had a lifetime use of illicit drugs, with drugs in commodity packets (0.18%) being ranked the fifth-most commonly used illicit drugs, higher than nitrous oxide (0.14%) and heroin (0.09%). Ten formats of drug packets were endorsed by users. Approximately 81.6% of persons with drug packet use had lifetime use of other illicit drugs. The correlates of the use of drugs in commodity packets were different from those of the exclusive use of other drugs, particularly concerning the lack of gender differences in the former category in the whole sample and the subgroups of various sociodemographic characteristics and other substance use.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Drugs in commodity packets have become a common way of administering illicit drugs in the population in Taiwan, and there were no gender differences among users. Our findings have implications for more efficient drug testing and culturally appropriate intervention for drug-packet use.</p>","PeriodicalId":15799,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"218-227"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10999518/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10203490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effectiveness of BNT162b2 Vaccine Against Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Children Aged 5-11 Years in Japan During Omicron Variant Predominate Periods.","authors":"Megumi Hara, Yuko Ohta, Naoki Fusazaki, Yoshio Hirota","doi":"10.2188/jea.JE20230093","DOIUrl":"10.2188/jea.JE20230093","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Although the effectiveness of BNT162b2 messenger RNA vaccines against the Omicron variant has been reported in several countries, data are limited in children living in Asian countries. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of the pediatric primary two-dose monovalent mRNA vaccine series in preventing symptomatic novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We conducted a test-negative case-control study (262 test-positive cases and 259 test-negative controls) in patients aged 5-11 years who presented with COVID-19-like symptoms during the Omicron BA.2- and BA.5-predominant periods. Vaccination status, demographic data, underlying medical conditions, lifestyle, personal protective health behaviors, living environment, and PCR test results were obtained using parent-administered questionnaires and clinical records. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic COVID-19 was calculated using a multivariate logistic regression analysis.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Of the test-positive cases and test-negative controls, 9.2% (n = 24) and 12.7% (n = 33) received two vaccine doses, respectively. Having siblings and a BA.5-dominant period were significantly associated with symptomatic COVID-19. After adjusting for age, siblings, study period, and duration after the last vaccination, the overall VE of two-dose vaccination was 50.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5-74%). VE was 72% (95% CI, 24-89%) within 3 months after the two-dose vaccination, while it decreased to 24% (95% CI, -80% to 68%) after 3 months.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Two BNT162b messenger RNA vaccine doses provided moderate protection against symptomatic COVID-19 during the Omicron variant period. A time-dependent decrease in VE was noted after the second dose; thus, a booster dose 3 months after the second dose is warranted.</p>","PeriodicalId":15799,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"205-210"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10999521/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10203491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Profile of Nagasaki Islands Study (NaIS): A Population-based Prospective Cohort Study on Multi-disease.","authors":"Jun Miyata, Hirotomo Yamanashi, Shin-Ya Kawashiri, Sakiko Soutome, Kazuhiko Arima, Mami Tamai, Fumiaki Nonaka, Yukiko Honda, Masayasu Kitamura, Koji Yoshida, Yuji Shimizu, Naomi Hayashida, Shigeru Kawakami, Noboru Takamura, Takashi Sawase, Atsutoshi Yoshimura, Yasuhiro Nagata, Mayumi Ohnishi, Kiyoshi Aoyagi, Atsushi Kawakami, Toshiyuki Saito, Takahiro Maeda","doi":"10.2188/jea.JE20230079","DOIUrl":"10.2188/jea.JE20230079","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In an aging society, it is important to visualize the conditions of people living with diseases or disabilities, such as frailty and sarcopenia, and determine the environmental and genetic factors underlying such conditions. Atherosclerosis and arterial stiffness are key conditions between these factors and noncommunicable diseases. In 2014, we launched a population-based prospective open-cohort study, the Nagasaki Islands Study (NaIS), which was conducted in Goto City, located in the remote islands of Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan, mostly involving middle-aged and older residents. We conducted our own health checkups along with the annual standardized checkups organized by the municipality; recruited study participants; and started to follow them for vital status (death), migration, and occurrence of diseases, such as myocardial infarction, stroke, fracture, and human T-cell leukemia virus type 1 (HTLV-1)-associated uveitis. Our checkups were conducted as baseline surveys in different areas of Goto City during the fiscal years 2014-2016, secondary surveys during 2017-2019, and tertiary surveys since 2021, consisting of medical interviews, physical examinations, blood and urine tests, body composition measurements, osteoporosis screening, arterial stiffness measurements, carotid ultrasonography, and dental examination. A total of 4,957 residents participated in either the baseline or secondary surveys and were followed; 3,594 and 3,364 residents (aged 27-96 and 28-98 years) participated in the baseline and secondary surveys, respectively. In conclusion, the NaIS has been undertaken to reveal the influence of aging and risk factors of noncommunicable diseases and disabilities, with an aim to contribute towards better healthcare in the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":15799,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"254-263"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10999517/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9897782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparison of instrumental variable methods with continuous exposure and binary outcome: A simulation study","authors":"Shunichiro Orihara, Atsushi Goto","doi":"10.2188/jea.je20230271","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2188/jea.je20230271","url":null,"abstract":"</p><p><b>Background:</b></p><p>Instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely employed to estimate causal effects when concerns regarding unmeasured confounders. Although comparisons among several IV methods for binary outcomes exist, comprehensive evaluations are insufficient. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to conduct a simulation with some settings for a detailed comparison of these methods, focusing on scenarios where IVs are valid and under effect homogeneity with different instrument strengths.</p><p><b>Methods:</b></p><p>We compared six IV methods under 32 simulation scenarios: two-stage least squares (2SLS), two-stage predictor substitutions (2SPS), two-stage residual inclusions (2SRI), limited information maximum likelihood (LIML), inverse-variance weighted methods with a linear outcome model (IVW_LI), and inverse-variance weighted methods with a non-linear model (IVW_LL). By comparing these methods, we examined three key estimates: the parameter estimates of the exposure variable, the causal risk ratio, and the causal risk differences.</p><p><b>Results:</b></p><p>Based on the results, six IV methods could be classified into three groups: 2SLS and IVW_LI, 2SRI and 2SPS, and LIML and IVW_LL. The first pair showed a clear bias owing to outcome model misspecification. The second pair showed a relatively good performance when strong IVs are available; however, the estimates suffered from a significant bias when only weak IVs are used. The third pair produced relatively conservative results, although they were less affected by weak IV issues.</p><p><b>Conclusions:</b></p><p>The findings indicate that no panacea is available for the bias associated with IV methods. We suggest using multiple IV methods: one for primary analysis and another for sensitivity analysis.</p>\u0000<p></p>","PeriodicalId":15799,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140630677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long working hours, work-life imbalance, and poor mental health: a cross-sectional mediation analysis based on the sixth Korean Working Conditions Survey, 2020–2021","authors":"Seong-Uk Baek, Yu-Min Lee, Jin-Ha Yoon, Jong-Uk Won","doi":"10.2188/jea.je20230302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2188/jea.je20230302","url":null,"abstract":"</p><p><b>Background</b> There has been growing concern about the negative mental health impact of long working hours and overwork. Our study examined how work-life imbalance (WLI) could be a mediator between working hours and poor mental well-being.</p><p><b>Methods</b> We included 34,968 individuals from a nationwide cross-sectional survey in Korea. Self-reported working hours per week was collected, and mental health was assessed by the WHO-5 Well-Being Index. Counterfactual-based mediation models were employed to disentangle the total effects into a direct effect (work hour – poor mental health) and an indirect effect (work hour – WLI – poor mental health).</p><p><b>Results</b> Out of 34,968 participants, 52.6% worked 35–40 h/week, 20.0% worked 41–48 h/week, 11.7% worked 49–54 h/week, and 15.6% worked ≥55 h/week. The odds ratios (ORs) of the total impact of working hours on poor mental health were 1.08 (95% CI: 1.01–1.16) for 41–48 h/week, 1.28 (1.17–1.39) for 49–54 h/week, and 1.60 (1.48–1.74) for ≥55 h/week in comparison to 35–40 h/week. The ORs of the indirect effects were 1.04 (1.03–1.05) for 41–48 h/week, 1.08 (1.07–1.09) for 49–54 h/week, and 1.14 (1.12–1.16) for ≥55 h/week, accounting for 51%, 31%, and 28% of the total effects.</p><p><b>Conclusion:</b> Our findings suggest that WLI can partially mediate the association of long working hours with mental health deterioration. Policy efforts are required to mitigate the adverse mental health effects of overwork.</p>\u0000<p></p>","PeriodicalId":15799,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140635296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Importance of circulating leptin and adiponectin in the causal pathways between obesity and the development of colorectal cancer in Japanese men.","authors":"Masataka Taguri, Aya Kuchiba, Taiki Yamaji, Norie Sawada, Atsushi Goto, Motoki Iwasaki, Shoichiro Tsugane","doi":"10.2188/jea.je20230148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2188/jea.je20230148","url":null,"abstract":"</p><p><b>Background:</b> The mechanistic associations between obesity and risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) remain unclear. Here, using body mass index (BMI) as an obesity indicator, we decomposed the total effects of obesity on the risk of CRC into: (1) direct effects, which are possibly mediated by unmeasured or currently unknown factors; (2) indirect effects mediated by circulating leptin and adiponectin; and (3) indirect effects that are not mediated by circulating leptin and adiponectin but by hyperinsulinemia and chronic inflammation (assessed via circulating connecting peptide and C-reactive protein, respectively).</p><p><b>Methods:</b> We adopted a causal mediation framework, using data from a large prospective cohort study of 44,271 Japanese men.</p><p><b>Results:</b> BMI was not associated with the risk of CRC due to direct and indirect effects that were not mediated by circulating leptin and adiponectin. By contrast, individuals with BMIs of 25.0–27.4 kg/m² (risk ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.98–1.69) and ≥27.5 kg/m² (risk ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 0.98–1.68) had a higher risk of CRC due to indirect effects of circulating leptin and adiponectin.</p><p><b>Conclusions:</b> Our mediation analyses suggest that the association between BMI and CRC risk may be largely mediated by a pathway involving circulating leptin and adiponectin.</p>\u0000<p></p>","PeriodicalId":15799,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140623933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"GWAS meta-analysis of kidney function traits in Japanese populations","authors":"Asahi Hishida, Masahiro Nakatochi, Yoichi Sutoh, Shiori Nakano, Yukihide Momozawa, Akira Narita, Kozo Tanno, Atsushi Shimizu, Atsushi Hozawa, Kengo Kinoshita, Taiki Yamaji, Atsushi Goto, Mitsuhiko Noda, Norie Sawada, Hiroaki Ikezaki, Mako Nagayoshi, Megumi Hara, Sadao Suzuki, Teruhide Koyama, Chihaya Koriyama, Sakurako Katsuura-Kamano, Aya Kadota, Kiyonori Kuriki, Masayuki Yamamoto, Makoto Sasaki, Motoki Iwasaki, Keitaro Matsuo, Kenji Wakai","doi":"10.2188/jea.je20230281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2188/jea.je20230281","url":null,"abstract":"</p><p><b>Background:</b> Genetic epidemiological evidence for the kidney function traits in East Asian population including Japanese remain still relatively unclarified. Especially, the number of GWASs for kidney traits reported still remains limited, and the sample size of each independent study is relatively small. Given the genetic variability between ancestries/ethnicities, implementation of GWAS with sufficiently large sample sizes in specific population of Japanese is considered meaningful.</p><p><b>Methods:</b> We conducted the GWAS meta-analyses of kidney traits by leveraging the GWAS summary data of the representative large genome cohort studies with about 200,000 Japanese participants (n = 202,406 for estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] and n = 200,845 for serum creatinine [SCr]).</p><p><b>Results:</b> In the present GWAS meta-analysis, we identified 110 loci with 169 variants significantly associated with eGFR (on chromosomes 1-13 and 15-22; p &lt; 5×10^-8), whereas we also identified 112 loci with 176 variants significantly associated with SCr (on chromosomes 1-22; p &lt; 5×10^-8), of which one locus (more than 1Mb distant from known loci) with one variant (<i>CD36</i> rs146148222 on chromosome 7) for SCr was considered as the truly novel finding.</p><p><b>Conclusions:</b> The present GWAS meta-analysis of largest genome cohort studies in Japanese provided some original genomic loci associated with kidney function in Japanese, which may contribute to the possible development of personalized prevention of kidney diseases based on genomic information in the near future.</p>\u0000<p></p>","PeriodicalId":15799,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140563976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changes in the utilization of outpatient and visiting dental care and per-attendance care cost by age groups during COVID-19 pandemic waves in Japan: A time-series analysis from LIFE study","authors":"Taro Kusama, Yudai Tamada, Megumi Maeda, Fumiko Murata, Ken Osaka, Haruhisa Fukuda, Kenji Takeuchi","doi":"10.2188/jea.je20230323","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2188/jea.je20230323","url":null,"abstract":"</p><p><b>Background:</b> The influence of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on dental care utilization may have differed according to individual characteristics or type of dental care provision. This study aimed to evaluate the changes in dental care utilization and per-attendance costs by age group and type of dental care during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan.</p><p><b>Methods:</b> This time-series study used healthcare insurance claims data from 01/07/2019 to 09/27/2021 (143 weeks) from nine municipalities in Japan. Dental care utilization rate per week and average dental care cost per attendance by age groups (0–19y/20–64y/65–74y/≥ 75y) and types of dental care (outpatient/visiting) were used as outcome variables. COVID-19 pandemic waves in Japan were used as predictors: 1^st (03/23/2020–05/17/2020), 2^nd (06/22/2020–09/27/2020), 3^rd (10/26/2020–02/21/2021), 4^th (02/22/2021–06/07/2021), and 5^th (07/05/2021–09/13/2021) waves. Fixed effect models were employed to estimate the proportional changes.</p><p><b>Results:</b> In the fixed effect model, we observed large declines in dental care utilization during the 1^st (17.0–22.0%) and 2^nd waves (3.0–13.0%) compared to the non-pandemic wave period in all age groups. In contrast, the average dental care cost per attendance increased in all age groups by 5.2–8.6% during the 1^st wave.</p><p><b>Conclusions:</b> During the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, dental care utilization decreased in all age groups, whereas the average dental care cost per attendance increased. The COVID-19 pandemic may have changed the dental care provision pattern towards less frequent and more concentrated dental care to avoid the risk of infection.</p>\u0000<p></p>","PeriodicalId":15799,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140563981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Associations Between Lifestyle Factors and Constipation Among Survivors After the Great East Japan Earthquake: A 9-year Follow-up Study.","authors":"Moeka Harada, Nobuyo Tsuboyama-Kasaoka, Yuki Yonekura, Haruki Shimoda, Akira Ogawa, Seiichiro Kobayashi, Kiyomi Sakata, Nobuo Nishi","doi":"10.2188/jea.JE20220284","DOIUrl":"10.2188/jea.JE20220284","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Disaster survivors experience deterioration in lifestyles and an increase in constipation. After the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, some survivors were evacuated for a long term, even after moving to temporary housing and public reconstruction housing. However, annual changes in constipation and the association between lifestyles and constipation among the survivors are still unknown.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Overall, 9,234 survivors aged 18 years or older participated in this 9-year follow-up survey after the disaster. Information about the prevalence of constipation and lifestyle factors (diet, physical activity, and mental health) was collected using a self-reported questionnaire. Their dietary intake was categorized into the following two dietary patterns: prudent (fish and shellfish, soybean products, vegetables, fruits, and dairy products) and meat (meat and eggs). Odds ratios for constipation according to lifestyle factors were calculated using a generalized linear mixed model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In women, the prevalence of constipation was the highest at baseline (8.7%) and remained around 5% afterward. In both men and women, older age, poor mental health, and poor physical activity were significantly associated with higher odds ratios of constipation. Moreover, a lower frequency of meals and a lower prudent dietary score were significantly associated with women's constipation.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The prevalence of constipation was the highest at baseline and remained around 5% in women. Lifestyle factors, such as poor mental health, physical inactivity, and low frequency of meals were associated with constipation. Our findings suggest continuous support for the survivors with constipation for medium- to long-term after disasters.</p>","PeriodicalId":15799,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"164-169"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10918335/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10084434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development and Validation of Prediction Models for the 5-year Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in a Japanese Population: Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective (JPHC) Diabetes Study.","authors":"Juan Xu, Atsushi Goto, Maki Konishi, Masayuki Kato, Tetsuya Mizoue, Yasuo Terauchi, Shoichiro Tsugane, Norie Sawada, Mitsuhiko Noda","doi":"10.2188/jea.JE20220329","DOIUrl":"10.2188/jea.JE20220329","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>This study aimed to develop models to predict the 5-year incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in a Japanese population and validate them externally in an independent Japanese population.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data from 10,986 participants (aged 46-75 years) in the development cohort of the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Diabetes Study and 11,345 participants (aged 46-75 years) in the validation cohort of the Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study were used to develop and validate the risk scores in logistic regression models.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We considered non-invasive (sex, body mass index, family history of diabetes mellitus, and diastolic blood pressure) and invasive (glycated hemoglobin [HbA1c] and fasting plasma glucose [FPG]) predictors to predict the 5-year probability of incident diabetes. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.643 for the non-invasive risk model, 0.786 for the invasive risk model with HbA1c but not FPG, and 0.845 for the invasive risk model with HbA1c and FPG. The optimism for the performance of all models was small by internal validation. In the internal-external cross-validation, these models tended to show similar discriminative ability across different areas. The discriminative ability of each model was confirmed using external validation datasets. The invasive risk model with only HbA1c was well-calibrated in the validation cohort.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Our invasive risk models are expected to discriminate between high- and low-risk individuals with T2DM in a Japanese population.</p>","PeriodicalId":15799,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"170-179"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10918338/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9497550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}