The Lancet. Global health最新文献

{"title":"Women's risk of death beyond 42 days post partum: a pooled analysis of longitudinal Health and Demographic Surveillance System data in sub-Saharan Africa.","authors":"U. Gazeley, G. Reniers, Hallie Eilerts-Spinelli, Julio Romero Prieto, Momodou Jasseh, S. Khagayi, V. Filippi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.4018232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4018232","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND\u0000WHO's standard definitions of pregnancy-related and maternal deaths only include deaths that occur within 42 days of delivery, termination, or abortion, with major implications for post-partum care and maternal mortality surveillance. We therefore estimated post-partum survival from childbirth up to 1 year post partum to evaluate the empirical justification for the 42-day post-partum threshold.\u0000\u0000\u0000METHODS\u0000We used prospective, longitudinal Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) data from 30 sites across 12 sub-Saharan African countries to estimate women's risk of death from childbirth until 1 year post partum from all causes. Observations were included if the childbirth occurred from 1991 onwards in the HDSS site and maternal age was 10-54 years. We calculated person-years as the time between childbirth and next birth, outmigration, death, or the end of the first year post partum, whichever occurred first. For six post-partum risk intervals (0-1 days, 2-6 days, 7-13 days, 14-41 days, 42-122 days, and 4-11 months), we calculated the adjusted rate ratios of death relative to a baseline risk of 12-17 months post partum.\u0000\u0000\u0000FINDINGS\u0000Between Jan 1, 1991, and Feb 24, 2020, 647 104 births occurred in the HDSS sites, contributing to 602 170 person-years of exposure time and 1967 deaths within 1 year of delivery. After adjustment for confounding, mortality was 38·82 (95% CI 33·21-45·29) times higher than baseline on days 0-1 after childbirth, 4·97 (3·94-6·21) times higher for days 2-6, 3·35 (2·64-4·20) times higher for days 7-13, and 2·06 (1·74-2·44) times higher for days 14-41. From 42 days to 4 months post partum, mortality was still 1·20 (1·03-1·39) times higher (ie, a 20% higher risk), but deaths in this interval would be excluded from measurement of pregnancy-related mortality. Extending the WHO 42-day post-partum threshold up to 4 months would increase the post-partum pregnancy-related mortality ratio by 40%.\u0000\u0000\u0000INTERPRETATION\u0000This multicountry study has implications for measurement and clinical practice. It makes the case for WHO to extend the 42-day post-partum threshold to capture the full duration of risk of pregnancy-related deaths. There is a need for a new indicator to track late pregnancy-related deaths that occur beyond 42 days, which are otherwise excluded from global maternal health surveillance efforts. Our results also emphasise the need for international agencies to disaggregate estimates by antepartum, intrapartum, postpartum, and extended post-partum periods. Additionally, the schedule and content of postnatal care packages should reflect the extended duration of post-partum risk.\u0000\u0000\u0000FUNDING\u0000The UK Economic and Social Research Council.","PeriodicalId":153380,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet. Global health","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134286159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prediction of upcoming global infection burden of influenza seasons after relaxation of public health and social measures during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study.","authors":"Sheikh Taslim Ali,&nbsp;Yiu Chung Lau,&nbsp;Songwei Shan,&nbsp;Sukhyun Ryu,&nbsp;Zhanwei Du,&nbsp;Lin Wang,&nbsp;Xiao-Ke Xu,&nbsp;Dongxuan Chen,&nbsp;Jiaming Xiong,&nbsp;Jungyeon Tae,&nbsp;Tim K Tsang,&nbsp;Peng Wu,&nbsp;Eric H Y Lau,&nbsp;Benjamin J Cowling","doi":"10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00358-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00358-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The transmission dynamics of influenza were affected by public health and social measures (PHSMs) implemented globally since early 2020 to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to assess the effect of COVID-19 PHSMs on the transmissibility of influenza viruses and to predict upcoming influenza epidemics.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>For this modelling study, we used surveillance data on influenza virus activity for 11 different locations and countries in 2017-22. We implemented a data-driven mechanistic predictive modelling framework to predict future influenza seasons on the basis of pre-COVID-19 dynamics and the effect of PHSMs during the COVID-19 pandemic. We simulated the potential excess burden of upcoming influenza epidemics in terms of fold rise in peak magnitude and epidemic size compared with pre-COVID-19 levels. We also examined how a proactive influenza vaccination programme could mitigate this effect.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>We estimated that COVID-19 PHSMs reduced influenza transmissibility by a maximum of 17·3% (95% CI 13·3-21·4) to 40·6% (35·2-45·9) and attack rate by 5·1% (1·5-7·2) to 24·8% (20·8-27·5) in the 2019-20 influenza season. We estimated a 10-60% increase in the population susceptibility for influenza, which might lead to a maximum of 1-5-fold rise in peak magnitude and 1-4-fold rise in epidemic size for the upcoming 2022-23 influenza season across locations, with a significantly higher fold rise in Singapore and Taiwan. The infection burden could be mitigated by additional proactive one-off influenza vaccination programmes.</p><p><strong>Interpretation: </strong>Our results suggest the potential for substantial increases in infection burden in upcoming influenza seasons across the globe. Strengthening influenza vaccination programmes is the best preventive measure to reduce the effect of influenza virus infections in the community.</p><p><strong>Funding: </strong>Health and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong.</p>","PeriodicalId":153380,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet. Global health","volume":" ","pages":"e1612-e1622"},"PeriodicalIF":34.3,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9573849/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"33539339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Racism and health: the need for urgent action.","authors":"Flávia B Pilecco,&nbsp;Cristiane S Cabral","doi":"10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00365-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00365-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":153380,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet. Global health","volume":" ","pages":"e1369-e1370"},"PeriodicalIF":34.3,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40363480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can the ShangRing bring us closer to endorsing early infant male circumcision in sub-Saharan Africa?","authors":"Stephanie M Davis,&nbsp;Robert C Bailey","doi":"10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00380-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00380-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":153380,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet. Global health","volume":" ","pages":"e1377-e1378"},"PeriodicalIF":34.3,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40363483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction to Lancet Glob Health 2022; 10: e1234.","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00363-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00363-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":153380,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet. Global health","volume":" ","pages":"e1394"},"PeriodicalIF":34.3,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40639288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Avoiding another lost decade in reducing malaria burden in African infants and young children.","authors":"Clara Menendez,&nbsp;Francisco Saute,&nbsp;Brian Greenwood,&nbsp;David Schellenberg,&nbsp;Robert Snow,&nbsp;Pedro L Alonso","doi":"10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00334-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00334-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":153380,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet. Global health","volume":" ","pages":"e1385-e1386"},"PeriodicalIF":34.3,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40363485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Redefining the influenza equator.","authors":"Parvaiz A Koul,&nbsp;Hazique P Koul","doi":"10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00364-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00364-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":153380,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet. Global health","volume":" ","pages":"e1388"},"PeriodicalIF":34.3,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40363487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Feasibility of measles and rubella vaccination programmes for disease elimination: a modelling study.","authors":"Amy K Winter, Brian Lambert, Daniel Klein, Petra Klepac, Timos Papadopoulos, Shaun Truelove, Colleen Burgess, Heather Santos, Jennifer K Knapp, Susan E Reef, Lidia K Kayembe, Stephanie Shendale, Katrina Kretsinger, Justin Lessler, Emilia Vynnycky, Kevin McCarthy, Matthew Ferrari, Mark Jit","doi":"10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00335-7","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00335-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Marked reductions in the incidence of measles and rubella have been observed since the widespread use of the measles and rubella vaccines. Although no global goal for measles eradication has been established, all six WHO regions have set measles elimination targets. However, a gap remains between current control levels and elimination targets, as shown by large measles outbreaks between 2017 and 2019. We aimed to model the potential for measles and rubella elimination globally to inform a WHO report to the 73rd World Health Assembly on the feasibility of measles and rubella eradication.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>In this study, we modelled the probability of measles and rubella elimination between 2020 and 2100 under different vaccination scenarios in 93 countries of interest. We evaluated measles and rubella burden and elimination across two national transmission models each (Dynamic Measles Immunisation Calculation Engine [DynaMICE], Pennsylvania State University [PSU], Johns Hopkins University, and Public Health England models), and one subnational measles transmission model (Institute for Disease Modeling model). The vaccination scenarios included a so-called business as usual approach, which continues present vaccination coverage, and an intensified investment approach, which increases coverage into the future. The annual numbers of infections projected by each model, country, and vaccination scenario were used to explore if, when, and for how long the infections would be below a threshold for elimination.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>The intensified investment scenario led to large reductions in measles and rubella incidence and burden. Rubella elimination is likely to be achievable in all countries and measles elimination is likely in some countries, but not all. The PSU and DynaMICE national measles models estimated that by 2050, the probability of elimination would exceed 75% in 14 (16%) and 36 (39%) of 93 modelled countries, respectively. The subnational model of measles transmission highlighted inequity in routine coverage as a likely driver of the continuance of endemic measles transmission in a subset of countries.</p><p><strong>Interpretation: </strong>To reach regional elimination goals, it will be necessary to innovate vaccination strategies and technologies that increase spatial equity of routine vaccination, in addition to investing in existing surveillance and outbreak response programmes.</p><p><strong>Funding: </strong>WHO, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</p>","PeriodicalId":153380,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet. Global health","volume":" ","pages":"e1412-e1422"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9557212/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40363492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cancer burden and status of cancer control measures in fragile states: a comparative analysis of 31 countries.","authors":"Isabel Mosquera, Andre Ilbawi, Richard Muwonge, Partha Basu, Andre L Carvalho","doi":"10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00331-X","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00331-X","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Information on cancer statistics and cancer control policies is limited in fragile states. This paper describes the cancer burden and status of cancer control measures in these countries.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>In this comparative analysis, fragile states presenting with a Fragile States Index (FSI) score of 90·0 or more (alert for fragility) for at least 10 years during the 2006-20 period were selected. States with fewer than 10 years of data were selected if they were in alert for fragility during all years. Information on cancer burden, prevalence of cancer risk factors, population-attributable fraction, and on political commitment, health financing, and health system capacity was collected. Cancer incidence and mortality was calculated on the basis of data from population-based cancer registries, estimated with modelling that used mortality-to-incidence ratios and incidence-to-mortality ratios derived from cancer registries in neighbouring countries, or average of rates in selected neighbouring countries. For statistical comparison, fragile states were grouped according to the annual percent change (APC) of the FSI, with group 1 showing an increasing fragility trend (APC 0·2% or higher), group 2 a relatively stable fragility trend (APC between 0·2% and -0·2%), and group 3 a decreasing fragility trend (APC of -0·2% or lower).</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>Overall, the estimated cancer burden in the 31 selected fragile states was lower than worldwide rates, except for cervical and prostate cancer. Cancer cases were attributed to infections (22·40% in group 1, 21·20% in group 2, and 18·80% in group 3) at a higher proportion in fragile states than globally (13·0%). Group 1 and 2 showed a significantly higher exposure to household air pollution (97·70% in group 1 and 94·90% in group 2), whereas current tobacco use in men increased from group 1 to group 3, with lung cancer incidence and mortality being higher in group 3. However, 25 countries had implemented only one or no MPOWER measures for tobacco control. Countries showed an out-of-pocket expenditure of 48·72% in group 1, 42·68% in group 2, and 51·07% in group 3, and only half of the countries had an updated cancer control plan or cancer management guidelines.</p><p><strong>Interpretation: </strong>Fragile states have started the epidemiological transition but are still not implementing enough cancer control measures. There is a need to develop reliable cancer control plans and guidelines, and to create financial mechanisms for implementation.</p><p><strong>Funding: </strong>None.</p><p><strong>Translations: </strong>For the Arabic and French translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.</p>","PeriodicalId":153380,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet. Global health","volume":" ","pages":"e1443-e1452"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9638035/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40364383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Amplifying the global issue of hearing loss.","authors":"The Lancet Global Health","doi":"10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00390-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00390-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":153380,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet. Global health","volume":" ","pages":"e1360"},"PeriodicalIF":34.3,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40363476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}