Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series最新文献_第6页

The Household Expenditure Response to a Consumption Tax Rate Increase 家庭支出对消费税上调的反应

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2017-03-28 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2017.035

David B. Cashin

引用次数: 10

How Would Us Banks Fare in a Negative Interest Rate Environment? 美国银行在负利率环境下的表现如何?

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2017-03-01 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2017.030

David M. Arseneau

引用次数: 32

The Cyclical Behavior of Unemployment and Wages Under Information Frictions 信息摩擦下失业与工资的周期性行为

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2017-03-01 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2017.047

Camilo Morales-Jiménez

引用次数: 1

Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors: The Federal Reserve's Approach 用历史预测误差衡量经济前景的不确定性:美联储的方法

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2017-02-24 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2017.020

D. Reifschneider, P. Tulip

{"title":"Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors: The Federal Reserve's Approach","authors":"D. Reifschneider, P. Tulip","doi":"10.17016/FEDS.2017.020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2017.020","url":null,"abstract":"Since November 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve has regularly published participants' qualitative assessments of the uncertainty attending their individual forecasts of real activity and inflation, expressed relative to that seen on average in the past. The benchmarks used for these historical comparisons are the average root mean squared forecast errors (RMSEs) made by various private and government forecasters over the past twenty years. This paper documents how these benchmarks are constructed and discusses some of their properties. We draw several conclusions. First, if past performance is a reasonable guide to future accuracy, considerable uncertainty surrounds all macroeconomic projections, including those of FOMC participants. Second, different forecasters have similar accuracy. Third, estimates of uncertainty about future real activity and interest rates are now considerably greater than prior to the financial crisis; in contrast, estimates of inflation accuracy have changed little. Finally, fan charts – constructed as plus-or-minus one RMSE intervals about the median FOMC forecast, under the expectation that future projection errors will be unbiased and symmetrically distributed, and that the intervals cover about 70 percent of possible outcomes – provide a reasonable approximation to future uncertainty, especially when viewed in conjuction with the FOMC's qualitative assessments. That said, an assumption of symmetry about the interest rate outlook is problematic if the expected path of the federal funds rate is expected to remain low.","PeriodicalId":153113,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series","volume":"214 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115013257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 39

Identity, Identification and Identifiers: The Global Legal Entity Identifier System 身份、识别和标识:全球法人实体标识系统

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2016-11-08 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2016.103

A. Kennickell

引用次数: 2

Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises 从历史中学习:波动和金融危机

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2016.093

Jón Dańıelsson, Marcela Valenzuela, Ilknur Zer

引用次数: 146

Exploring Online and Offline Informal Work: Findings from the Enterprising and Informal Work Activities (EIWA) Survey 探索线上和线下非正式工作:来自企业和非正式工作活动(EIWA)调查的结果

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2016-10-01 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2016.089

Bárbara J. Robles, M. McGee

{"title":"Exploring Online and Offline Informal Work: Findings from the Enterprising and Informal Work Activities (EIWA) Survey","authors":"Bárbara J. Robles, M. McGee","doi":"10.17016/FEDS.2016.089","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2016.089","url":null,"abstract":"The growing prevalence of alternative work arrangements has accelerated with the rapidly evolving digital platform transformations in local and global markets (Kenny and Zysman, 2015 and 2016). Although traditional (offline) informal paid work has always been a part of the labor sector (BLS-Contingent Worker Survey, 2005; GAO, 2015 and Katz and Krueger, 2016), the rise of online enabled paid work activities requires new approaches to measure this growing trend (Farrell and Greig, 2016; Gray et al, 2016; Sundararajan, 2016 and Schor, 2015). In the fourth quarter of 2015, the Federal Reserve Board conducted a nationally representative survey of adults 18 and older to track online and offline income-generating activities as well as their employment status during the six months prior to the surveys. Survey results indicate that 36 percent of respondents undertook informal paid work activities either as a complement to or as a substitute for more traditional and formal work arrangements. We explore the rationale behind respondents' participation in alternative work arrangements by setting questions that capture participant motives and attitudes towards informal offline and online paid work activities. Sixty five percent of qualified survey respondents indicate that a main reason for participating in informal work is to earn extra income.","PeriodicalId":153113,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128739160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 42

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants 衡量自然利率:国际趋势和决定因素

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2016-08-19 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2016.073

K. Holston, Thomas Laubach, John C. Williams

引用次数: 629

Search, Matching and Training 搜索，匹配和培训

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2016-07-13 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2016.075

C. Flinn, Ahu Gemici, Steven Laufer

引用次数: 15

Commodity Prices and Labour Market Dynamics in Small Open Economies 小型开放经济体的商品价格和劳动力市场动态

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2016-05-01 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2017.039

Martin Bodenstein, Güneş Kamber, Christoph Thoenissen

{"title":"Commodity Prices and Labour Market Dynamics in Small Open Economies","authors":"Martin Bodenstein, Güneş Kamber, Christoph Thoenissen","doi":"10.17016/FEDS.2017.039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2017.039","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the connection between commodity price shocks and unemployment in advanced resource-rich small open economies from an empirical and theoretical perspective. Shocks to commodity prices are shown to influence labour market conditions primarily through the real exchange rate contrasting sharply with the transmission of technology shocks which are typically argued to affect the economy by changing labour productivity. The empirical impact of commodity price shocks is obtained from estimating a panel vector autoregression; a positive price shock is found to be expansionary for the components of GDP, causes the real exchange rate to appreciate, and improves labour market conditions. For every one percent increase in commodity prices, our estimates suggest a one basis point decline in the unemployment rate and at its peak a 0.3% increase in unfilled vacancies. We then match the impulse responses to a commodity price shock from a small open economy model with net commodity exports and search and matching frictions in the labour market to these empirical responses. As in the data, an increase in commodity prices raises consumption demand in the small open economy and induces a real appreciation. Facing higher relative prices for their goods, non-commodity producing firms post additional job vacancies, causing the number of matches between firms and workers to rise. As a result, unemployment falls, even if employment in the commodity-producing sector is negligible. For commodity price shocks, there is little difference between the standard Diamond (1982), Mortensen (1982), and Pissarides (1985) approach of modelling search and matching frictions and the alternating offer bargaining model suggested by Hall and Milgrom (2008).","PeriodicalId":153113,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128836344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 14