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Bill of Lading Data in International Trade Research with an Application to the COVID-19 Pandemic 国际贸易提单数据研究及其在新冠肺炎疫情中的应用
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2021.066
Aaron B. Flaaen, Flora Haberkorn, Logan Lewis, A. Monken, Justin Pierce, Rosemary Rhodes, Madeleine Yi
{"title":"Bill of Lading Data in International Trade Research with an Application to the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Aaron B. Flaaen, Flora Haberkorn, Logan Lewis, A. Monken, Justin Pierce, Rosemary Rhodes, Madeleine Yi","doi":"10.17016/FEDS.2021.066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2021.066","url":null,"abstract":"We evaluate high-frequency bill of lading data for its suitability in international trade research. These data offer many advantages over both other publicly accessible official trade data and confidential datasets, but they also have clear drawbacks. We provide a comprehensive overview for potential researchers to understand these strengths and weaknesses as these data become more widely available. Drawing on the strengths of the data, we analyze three aspects of trade during the COVID- 19 pandemic. First, we show how the high-frequency data capture features of the within-month collapse of trade between the United States and India that are not observable in official monthly data. Second, we demonstrate how U.S. buyers shifted their purchases across suppliers over time during the recovery. And third, we show how the data can be used to measure vessel delivery bottlenecks in near real time.","PeriodicalId":153113,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series","volume":"167 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130929406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Trade Policy is Real News: Theory and Evidence 贸易政策是真正的新闻:理论与证据
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2021.1330
George Alessandria, C. Mix
{"title":"Trade Policy is Real News: Theory and Evidence","authors":"George Alessandria, C. Mix","doi":"10.17016/IFDP.2021.1330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2021.1330","url":null,"abstract":"We evaluate the aggregate effects of changes in trade barriers when these changes can be implemented slowly over time and trade responds gradually to changes in trade barriers because firm-level trade costs make exporting a dynamic decision. Our model shows how expectations of changes in trade barriers affect the economy. We find that while decreases in trade barriers increase economic activity, expectations of lower future trade barriers temporarily decrease investment, hours worked, and output. Further- more, canceling an expected decline in future trade barriers raises investment and output in the short run but substantially lowers medium-run growth. These effects are larger when the expected reform is bigger. In the data, we find that countries with more trade growth after the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) rounds decreased investment and hours worked in the years leading to the tariff cuts, as predicted by our model.","PeriodicalId":153113,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131218790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Global Stablecoins: Monetary Policy Implementation Considerations from the U.S. Perspective 全球稳定币:从美国的角度考虑货币政策实施
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2021-03-22 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2021.020
Matthew Malloy, D. Lowe
{"title":"Global Stablecoins: Monetary Policy Implementation Considerations from the U.S. Perspective","authors":"Matthew Malloy, D. Lowe","doi":"10.17016/FEDS.2021.020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2021.020","url":null,"abstract":"This note explores the potential effects of the widespread adoption of a global stablecoin (GSC) on key aggregate financial sector balance sheets in the United States. To do this, we map out cash flows of GSC transactions among financial sector entities using a stylized set of 't-accounts'. By analyzing these individual transactions, we infer aggregate and compositional effects on U.S. commercial banking sector and Federal Reserve balance sheets. Through this lens, we also consider how these balance sheet changes could affect monetary policy implementation, the demand for central bank reserves, and the market for U.S. dollar safe assets.","PeriodicalId":153113,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129595052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Fundamental Arbitrage under the Microscope: Evidence from Detailed Hedge Fund Transaction Data 显微镜下的基本面套利:来自对冲基金交易数据的证据
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2021-02-24 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2021.022
Bastian von Beschwitz, Sandro Lunghi, Daniel Schmidt
{"title":"Fundamental Arbitrage under the Microscope: Evidence from Detailed Hedge Fund Transaction Data","authors":"Bastian von Beschwitz, Sandro Lunghi, Daniel Schmidt","doi":"10.17016/FEDS.2021.022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2021.022","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We exploit detailed transaction and position data for a sample of long-short equity hedge funds to study the trading activity of fundamental investors. We find that hedge funds exhibit skill in opening positions, but that they close their positions too early, thereby forgoing about one-third of the trades’ potential profitability. We explain this behavior with the limits of arbitrage: hedge funds close positions early in order to reallocate their capital to more profitable investments and/or to accommodate tightened financial constraints. Consistent with this view, we document that hedge funds leave more money on the table after opening new positions, negative returns, or increases in funding constraints and volatility. (JEL G11, G12, G14, G15)\u0000 Received May 1 2020; editorial decision March 25, 2021 by Editor: Jeffrey Pontiff. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.","PeriodicalId":153113,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124849800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Gender and Social Networks on Bank Boards 银行董事会中的性别和社会网络
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2021.021
Ann L. Owen, Judit Temesvary, Andrew Wei
{"title":"Gender and Social Networks on Bank Boards","authors":"Ann L. Owen, Judit Temesvary, Andrew Wei","doi":"10.17016/FEDS.2021.021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2021.021","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the effect of the social networks of bank directors on board gender diversity and compensation using a unique, newly compiled dataset over the 1999-2018 period. We find that within-board social networks are extensive, but there are significant differences in the size and gender composition of social networks of male vs female bank directors. We also find that samegender networks play an important role in determining the gender composition of bank boards. Finally, we show that those connected to male directors receive higher compensation, but we find no evidence that connections to female directors are influential in determining pay and bonuses.","PeriodicalId":153113,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series","volume":"79 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126037246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Fed's Discount Window in "Normal" Times “正常”时期美联储的贴现窗口
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2021-01-13 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2021.016
Huberto M. Ennis, Elizabeth C. Klee
{"title":"The Fed's Discount Window in \"Normal\" Times","authors":"Huberto M. Ennis, Elizabeth C. Klee","doi":"10.17016/FEDS.2021.016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2021.016","url":null,"abstract":"We study new transaction-level data of discount window borrowing in the U.S. between 2010 and 2017, merged with quarterly data on bank financial con- ditions (balance sheet and revenue). The objective is to improve our under- standing of the reasons for why banks use the discount window during periods outside financial crises. We also provide a model of the decision of banks to borrow at the window, which is helpful for interpreting the data. We find that decisions to gain access and to borrow at the discount window are meaning- fully correlated with some relevant banks' characteristics and the composition of banks' balance sheets. Banks choose simultaneously to obtain access to the discount window and hold more cash-like liquidity as a proportion of assets. Yet, conditional on access, larger and less liquid banks tend to borrow more from the discount window. In general, our findings suggest that banks could, in principle, adapt their operations to modulate, and possibly reduce, their use of the discount window in \"normal\" times.","PeriodicalId":153113,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132080840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Modeling the Consumption Response to the Cares Act 消费者对关爱法案的反应模型
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2020.077
C. Carroll, E. Crawley, Jiří Slačálek, Matthew N. White
{"title":"Modeling the Consumption Response to the Cares Act","authors":"C. Carroll, E. Crawley, Jiří Slačálek, Matthew N. White","doi":"10.17016/FEDS.2020.077","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2020.077","url":null,"abstract":"To predict the effects of the 2020 U S CARES Act on con-sumption, we extend a model that matches responses to past consumption stimulus packages The extension allows us to account for two novel features of the coronavirus crisis First, during lockdowns, many types of spending are undesirable or impossible Second, some of the jobs that disappear during the lockdown will not reappear We estimate that, if the lock-down is short-lived (the median point of view as we are writing in April 2020), the combination of expanded unemployment insurance benefits and stimulus payments should be sufficient to allow a swift recovery in consumer spending to pre-crisis levels If the lockdown lasts longer (or there is a “second wave”), an extension of enhanced unemployment benefits will likely be necessary for consumption spending to recover quickly © 2021, European Central Bank All rights reserved","PeriodicalId":153113,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series","volume":"90 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123783142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 32
Monetary Policy, Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the U.S. Business Cycle 货币政策、自我实现预期与美国经济周期
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2020-05-05 DOI: 10.17016/feds.2020.035
Giovanni Nicolò
{"title":"Monetary Policy, Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the U.S. Business Cycle","authors":"Giovanni Nicolò","doi":"10.17016/feds.2020.035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2020.035","url":null,"abstract":"I estimate a medium-scale New-Keynesian model and relax the conventional assumption that the central bank adopted an active monetary policy by pursuing inflation and output stability over the entire post-war period. Even after accounting for a rich structure, I find that monetary policy was passive prior to the Volcker disinflation. Sunspot shocks did not represent quantitatively relevant sources of volatility. By contrast, such passive interest rate policy accommodated fundamental productivity and cost shocks that de-anchored inflation expectations, propagated via self-fulfilling inflation expectations and constituted the primary sources of the run-up in inflation from the 1960s through the late 1970s.","PeriodicalId":153113,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123892935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises 货币政策不确定性和货币政策意外
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.17016/feds.2020.032
Michiel De Pooter, G. Favara, M. Modugno, Jason Wu
{"title":"Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises","authors":"Michiel De Pooter, G. Favara, M. Modugno, Jason Wu","doi":"10.17016/feds.2020.032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2020.032","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Monetary policy uncertainty affects the transmission of monetary policy shocks to longer-term nominal and real yields. For a given monetary policy shock, the reaction of yields is more pronounced when the level of monetary policy uncertainty is low. Primary dealers and other investors adjust their interest rate positions more when monetary policy uncertainty is low than when uncertainty is high. These portfolio adjustments likely explain the larger pass-through of a monetary policy shock to bond yields when uncertainty is low. These findings shed new light on the role that monetary policy uncertainty plays in the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets.","PeriodicalId":153113,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126296011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder 昂贵的通勤和工作阶梯
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2020.025
Jean Flemming
{"title":"Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder","authors":"Jean Flemming","doi":"10.17016/FEDS.2020.025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2020.025","url":null,"abstract":"Even though workers in the UK spent just 1,000 pounds on commuting in 2017, the economic loss may be far higher because of the congestion externality arising from the way in which one worker's commute affects the commuting time of others. I provide empirical evidence that commuting time affects job acceptance, pointing to large indirect costs of congestion. To interpret the empirical facts and quantify the costs of congestion, I build a model featuring a frictional labor market within a metropolitan area. By endogenizing commuting congestion in a labor search model, the model connects labor market responses to urban policies. Workers evaluate job offers based on their productivity and commuting costs, taking congestion as given, but by accepting and commuting to distant jobs, affect other workers' labor market outcomes. Through this mechanism, equilibrium moving decisions, housing rent, and wages are tightly linked to congestion. Calibrating the model to the local labor market around London, I show that the effect of the congestion externality is to significantly decrease welfare and increase wage inequality. I quantify the effects of a congestion tax on labor market outcomes, and show that the welfare-maximizing tax has substantial negative effects on inequality, but comes at a cost of higher unemployment.","PeriodicalId":153113,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132588503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
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