Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series最新文献_第4页

How Much Has Wealth Concentration Grown in the United States? A Re-Examination of Data from 2001-2013 美国的财富集中度增长了多少?2001-2013年数据的再检验

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2018-04-13 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2018.024

Jesse Bricker, Alice Henriques Volz, P. Hansen

引用次数: 28

Early-Stage Business Formation: An Analysis of Applications for Employer Identification Numbers 早期企业形成:雇主识别号码应用分析

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2018-03-01 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2018.015

Kimberly Bayard, Emin M. Dinlersoz, T. Dunne, J. Haltiwanger, Javier Miranda, John J. Stevens

{"title":"Early-Stage Business Formation: An Analysis of Applications for Employer Identification Numbers","authors":"Kimberly Bayard, Emin M. Dinlersoz, T. Dunne, J. Haltiwanger, Javier Miranda, John J. Stevens","doi":"10.17016/FEDS.2018.015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2018.015","url":null,"abstract":"This paper reports on the development and analysis of a newly constructed dataset on the early stages of business formation. The data are based on applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) submitted in the United States, known as IRS Form SS-4 filings. The goal of the research is to develop high-frequency indicators of business formation at the national, state, and local levels. The analysis indicates that EIN applications provide forward-looking and very timely information on business formation. The signal of business formation provided by counts of applications is improved by using the characteristics of the applications to model the likelihood that applicants become employer businesses. The results also suggest that EIN applications are related to economic activity at the local level. For example, application activity is higher in counties that experienced higher employment growth since the end of the Great Recession, and application counts grew more rapidly in counties engaged in shale oil and gas extraction. Finally, the paper provides a description of new public-use dataset, the “Business Formation Statistics (BFS),” that contains new data series on business applications and formation. The initial release of the BFS shows that the number of business applications in the 3rd quarter of 2017 that have relatively high likelihood of becoming job creators is still far below pre-Great Recession levels.","PeriodicalId":153113,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126792295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 21

Seven Fallacies Concerning Milton Friedman's "the Role of Monetary Policy" 关于米尔顿·弗里德曼“货币政策的作用”的七大谬误

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2018-02-01 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2018.013

Edward Nelson

引用次数: 2

Bank Market Power and the Risk Channel of Monetary Policy 银行市场支配力与货币政策风险通道

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2018-01-19 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2018.006

Elena A Afanasyeva, Jochen Guntner

引用次数: 14

Using Payroll Processor Microdata to Measure Aggregate Labor Market Activity 使用工资处理器微数据衡量劳动力市场活动总量

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2018-01-17 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2018.005

Tomaz Cajner, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, C. Kurz, Tyler Radler

{"title":"Using Payroll Processor Microdata to Measure Aggregate Labor Market Activity","authors":"Tomaz Cajner, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, C. Kurz, Tyler Radler","doi":"10.17016/FEDS.2018.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2018.005","url":null,"abstract":"We show that high-frequency private payroll microdata can help forecast labor market conditions. Payroll employment is perhaps the most reliable real-time indicator of the business cycle and is therefore closely followed by policymakers, academia, and financial markets. Government statistical agencies have long served as the primary suppliers of information on the labor market and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. That said, sources of ?big data? are becoming increasingly available through collaborations with private businesses engaged in commercial activities that record economic activity on a granular, frequent, and timely basis. One such data source is generated by the firm ADP, which processes payrolls for about one fifth of the U.S. private sector workforce. We evaluate the efficacy of these data to create new statistics that complement existing measures. In particular, we develop a set of weekly aggregate employment indexes from 2000 to 2017, which allows us to measure employment at a higher frequency than is currently possible. The extensive coverage of the ADP data?similar in terms of private employment to the BLS CES sample?implies potentially high information value of these data, and our results confirm this conjecture. Indeed, the timeliness and frequency of the ADP payroll microdata substantially improves forecast accuracy for both current-month employment and revisions to the BLS CES data.","PeriodicalId":153113,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131559503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 18

Housing Bust, Bank Lending & Employment: Evidence from Multimarket Banks 房地产泡沫破裂、银行贷款与就业:来自多市场银行的证据

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2017.118

David P. Glancy

引用次数: 8

Updates to the Sampling of Wealthy Families in the Survey of Consumer Finances 消费者财务状况调查中富裕家庭抽样的最新情况

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2017.114

Jesse Bricker, Alice Henriques Volz, Kevin B. Moore

{"title":"Updates to the Sampling of Wealthy Families in the Survey of Consumer Finances","authors":"Jesse Bricker, Alice Henriques Volz, Kevin B. Moore","doi":"10.17016/FEDS.2017.114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2017.114","url":null,"abstract":"Participation in household surveys has fallen over time, making it harder to produce a household survey-like the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF)-in a timely manner. To address these challenges, the reference year of the sampling frame data for the 2016 SCF wealthy oversample was shifted back one year, allowing the oversample to be selected earlier than the past. In implementing this change, though, we risk identifying an outdated set of families and introducing variability in the sampling process. However, we show that the set of families selected in the new frame are observationally equivalent to those that would have been selected from a past frame, and that the increased variability of wealth estimates is compensated-for with the use of more comprehensive data than in the past. Other aspects of the SCF sampling process are revisited, too. We continue to find support for using permanent income in the sampling process, rather than annual income. We also estimate the geographic distribution of wealthy families and show that the current distribution is similar to the past. We propose adding one geographic area to the oversample, though, and supplementing by 100 the set of sampled families.","PeriodicalId":153113,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121932765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 21

The Unequal Distribution of Economic Education: A Report on the Race, Ethnicity, and Gender of Economics Majors at Us Colleges and Universities 经济教育的不平等分配:美国高校经济学专业学生的种族、民族和性别报告

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2017-10-01 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2017.105

Amanda Bayer, David W. Wilcox

引用次数: 17

Reaffirming the Influence of Milton Friedman on U.K. Economic Policy 重申米尔顿·弗里德曼对英国经济政策的影响

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2017-09-22 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2017.096

Edward Nelson

{"title":"Reaffirming the Influence of Milton Friedman on U.K. Economic Policy","authors":"Edward Nelson","doi":"10.17016/FEDS.2017.096","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2017.096","url":null,"abstract":"This paper finds a significant influence of Milton Friedman on U.K. economic policy from the 1970s onward, and especially during the period of the Thatcher Government. The finding is based on a consideration of statements by policymakers and key economic advisers, as well as an analysis of Friedman’s commentary in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s on U.K. economic developments. Explicit, public acknowledgments of Friedman's influence were given by Margaret Thatcher, Chancellor of the Exchequer Geoffrey Howe, Bank of England officials, and others in policy circles. Examples of Friedman's influence include the absorption into U.K. policy doctrine of the permanent income hypothesis and the natural rate hypothesis, the rejection from 1979 onward of incomes policy as a weapon against inflation, and U.K. officials' repeated appeals to monetary sovereignty when arguing against monetary union or a sterling peg. Evidence of influence by Friedman on privatization policy and on the official perspective on the current account deficit can also be discerned. Although he had only limited interaction with U.K. policymakers, Friedman had a major influence, reflected in the adoption into actual U.K. policymaking of recommendations made in his writings and in the fact that those writings-which were studied closely by a number of senior U.K. economic advisers-helped alter U.K. economists' conceptual framework and thereby fostered doctrinal changes in U.K. economic policy. This paper's analysis also shows that two prominent critics of the Thatcher economic policy-Labour's Harold Wilson and the Conservatives' Edward Heath-saw this policy as partly due to the influence of Friedman, whom each of them had met before the Thatcher era.","PeriodicalId":153113,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123672840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

Regular Variation of Popular GARCH Processes Allowing for Distributional Asymmetry 允许分布不对称的流行GARCH过程的规则变化

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Research Series Pub Date : 2017-09-22 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2017.095

Todd Prono

引用次数: 2