Early-Stage Business Formation: An Analysis of Applications for Employer Identification Numbers

Kimberly Bayard, Emin M. Dinlersoz, T. Dunne, J. Haltiwanger, Javier Miranda, John J. Stevens
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引用次数: 21

Abstract

This paper reports on the development and analysis of a newly constructed dataset on the early stages of business formation. The data are based on applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) submitted in the United States, known as IRS Form SS-4 filings. The goal of the research is to develop high-frequency indicators of business formation at the national, state, and local levels. The analysis indicates that EIN applications provide forward-looking and very timely information on business formation. The signal of business formation provided by counts of applications is improved by using the characteristics of the applications to model the likelihood that applicants become employer businesses. The results also suggest that EIN applications are related to economic activity at the local level. For example, application activity is higher in counties that experienced higher employment growth since the end of the Great Recession, and application counts grew more rapidly in counties engaged in shale oil and gas extraction. Finally, the paper provides a description of new public-use dataset, the “Business Formation Statistics (BFS),” that contains new data series on business applications and formation. The initial release of the BFS shows that the number of business applications in the 3rd quarter of 2017 that have relatively high likelihood of becoming job creators is still far below pre-Great Recession levels.
早期企业形成:雇主识别号码应用分析
本文报告了一个新构建的关于企业形成早期阶段的数据集的开发和分析。这些数据基于在美国提交的雇主识别号码(ein)申请,即IRS表格SS-4。这项研究的目标是开发国家、州和地方各级企业形成的高频指标。分析表明,EIN应用程序提供了有关业务形成的前瞻性和非常及时的信息。通过使用申请的特征来模拟申请人成为雇主企业的可能性,可以改进由申请数量提供的企业形成信号。结果还表明,EIN的应用与地方层面的经济活动有关。例如,在大衰退结束后就业增长较快的地区,申请数量增长较快,从事页岩油气开采的地区申请数量增长较快。最后,本文提供了新的公共使用数据集“业务形成统计(BFS)”的描述,该数据集包含有关业务应用和形成的新数据系列。最初发布的BFS显示,2017年第三季度有相对较高可能性成为就业创造者的商业申请数量仍远低于大衰退前的水平。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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