Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal最新文献_第8页

Прогнозирование основных макроэкономических показателей с использованием поисковых интернет запросов (Population Forecasting and Analysis of Demographic Heterogeneity of Russia)

Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal Pub Date : 2020-03-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3594521

Diana Petrova, Pavel Trunin

{"title":"Прогнозирование основных макроэкономических показателей с использованием поисковых интернет запросов (Population Forecasting and Analysis of Demographic Heterogeneity of Russia)","authors":"Diana Petrova, Pavel Trunin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3594521","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3594521","url":null,"abstract":"Russian Abstract: В данном исследовании проводится анализ предсказательной способности такого типа интернет данных, как интенсивность поисковых запросов, для прогнозирования инфляции, уровня безработицы, реальных темпов роста ВВП и курса рубля к доллару в период с января 2004 г. по июль 2019 г. В работе используются поисковые запросы, связанные с финансовыми рынками, инфляционными ожиданиями и макроэкономическими условиями. Результаты показывают, что включение в модель интенсивностей поисковых запросов позволяет повысить точность прогнозов инфляции, уровня безработицы и курса рубля к доллару по сравнению с наивным прогнозом. English Abstract: This study examines the usefulness of Google Trends intensity search queries data as a measure of economic expectations in predicting inflation, unemployment, real gdp growth and exchange rate during the period between January 2004 and July 2019. We use search queries related to financial markets, inflation expectations and macroeconomic conditions. The results show that the addition of Google search queries improveы out-of-sample forecasts of inflation, unemployment and exchange rate over naïve forecast.","PeriodicalId":149805,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114124463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Демографическое прогнозирование и анализ демографической неоднородности России (Population Forecasting and Analysis of Demographic Heterogeneity of Russia) ДемографическоепрогнозированиеианализдемографическойнеоднородностиРоссии(人口预测和分析人口异质性的俄罗斯)

Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal Pub Date : 2020-03-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3594516

Sergey Shulgin, Sergei Scherbov

{"title":"Демографическое прогнозирование и анализ демографической неоднородности России (Population Forecasting and Analysis of Demographic Heterogeneity of Russia)","authors":"Sergey Shulgin, Sergei Scherbov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3594516","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3594516","url":null,"abstract":"Russian Abstract: В данной работе разрабатывается и апробируется методика построения вероятностного многорегионального демографического прогноз России до 2050 г. Согласно прогнозу к 2050 медианная численность составит 134,9 млн человек при 90% доверительном интервале от 125,8 млн до 147,4 млн человек. Медианный возраст возрастает с 39,4 лет в 2019 г. до 44,3 лет (41,7 – 47,8) в 2050 г. Однако перспективный медианный возраст (оцененный к базовому 2018 г.) растет до 39,8 (33,7–43,8). Полученные нами оценки показывают, что оптимистические сценарии демографического развития, это сценарии наиболее оптимистических 5-10% из анализируемых нами, демографических траекторий. English Abstract: In this work, we develop and test a methodology for constructing a probabilistic multi-regional demographic forecast of Russia until 2050. According to the forecast, by 2050 the median population will be 134.9 million people with a 90% confidence interval from 125.8 million to 147.4 million people. The median age increases from 39.4 years in 2019 to 44.3 years (41.7 - 47.8) in 2050, however, the promising median age (estimated by the base year 2018) grows to 39.8 (33, 7–43.8). Our estimates show that the optimistic scenarios of demographic development are the scenarios of the most optimistic 5-10% of the demographic trajectories that we analyze.","PeriodicalId":149805,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114325262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

What Will Be the Economic Impact of Covid-19 in the Us? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios 新冠肺炎对美国的经济影响是什么?疾病情景的粗略估计

Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.21034/sr.595

A. Atkeson

引用次数: 824

Gender Roles and the Gender Expectations Gap 性别角色和性别期望差距

Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal Pub Date : 2020-02-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3797091

Francesco D’Acunto, Ulrike Malmendier, Michael Weber

引用次数: 32

Grouping Individual Investment Preferences in Retirement Savings: A Cluster Analysis of a USS Members Risk Attitude Survey 个人退休储蓄投资偏好分组:美国会员风险态度调查的聚类分析

Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal Pub Date : 2020-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3552251

D. Blake, Mel Duffield, Ian Tonks, Alistair Haig, D. Blower, L. MacPhee

{"title":"Grouping Individual Investment Preferences in Retirement Savings: A Cluster Analysis of a USS Members Risk Attitude Survey","authors":"D. Blake, Mel Duffield, Ian Tonks, Alistair Haig, D. Blower, L. MacPhee","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3552251","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3552251","url":null,"abstract":"Cluster analysis is used to identify homogeneous groups of members of USS in terms of risk attitudes. There are two distinct clusters of members in their 40s and 50s. One had previously ‘engaged’ with USS by making additional voluntary contributions. It typically had higher pay, longer tenure, less interest in ethical investing, lower risk capacity, a higher percentage of males, and a higher percentage of academics than members of the ‘disengaged’ cluster. Conditioning only on the attitude to risk responses, there are 18 clusters, with similar but not identical membership, depending on which clustering method is used. The differences in risk aversion across the 18 clusters could be explained largely by differences in the percentage of females and the percentage of couples. Risk aversion increases as the percentage of females in the cluster increases, while it reduces as the percentage of couples increases because of greater risk sharing within the household. Characteristics that other studies have found important determinants of risk attitudes, such as age, income and (pension) wealth, do not turn out to be as significant for USS members. Further, despite being on average more highly educated than the general population, USS members are marginally more risk averse than the general population, controlling for salary, although the difference is not significant.","PeriodicalId":149805,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130575682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

School Effects on Socio-Emotional Development, School-Based Arrests, and Educational Attainment 学校对社会情感发展、校本逮捕和教育成就的影响

Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal Pub Date : 2020-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/w26759

C. Jackson, Shanette C. Porter, J. Easton, Alyssa Blanchard, Sebastián Kiguel

引用次数: 38

Nigerian Female Immigrant Entrepreneurs within the Service Industry in New York City, USA: An Integrative Literature Review 美国纽约市服务业的奈及利亚女移民企业家:综合文献回顾

Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal Pub Date : 2020-01-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3529631

Dr. Tiffany Oloke, D. Halkias

{"title":"Nigerian Female Immigrant Entrepreneurs within the Service Industry in New York City, USA: An Integrative Literature Review","authors":"Dr. Tiffany Oloke, D. Halkias","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3529631","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3529631","url":null,"abstract":"Africans are categorized as one of the largest ethnic groups in the world noted for migration, while Nigeria is the most abundant migrating country within the African continent. The problem is that little is known about the business experiences of Nigerian, female, immigrant entrepreneurs within the service industry in New York. These entrepreneurs face problems in starting a business and adapting to the social and institutional environment of the host country. This integrative literature review is part of a more extensive quantitative multiple-case study on the barriers faced by Female Nigerian immigrant who owns their service businesses in New York City. Research results indicate even though they vary, there are significant barriers such as safety and security, gender inequality, certain levels of ethnic and non-ethnic competition, stereotyping, globalization, cultural adaptation (language, religion, way of dressing) are significant problems facing Nigerian, female, immigrant entrepreneurs in New York. This research overview will be a manual for upcoming Nigerian female immigrant entrepreneurs coming to establish their businesses in New York.","PeriodicalId":149805,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116881585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Aging Labor, ICT Capital, and Productivity in Japan and Korea 日本和韩国的老龄化劳动力、ICT资本和生产率

Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal Pub Date : 2020-01-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3518875

Jong‐Wha Lee, Eunbi Song, D. Kwak

引用次数: 20

Do You have Time to Take a Walk Together? Private and Joint Time within the Household 你们有时间一起散步吗?家庭内部的私人和共同时间

Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal Pub Date : 2020-01-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3518409

M. Browning, Olivier Donni, Mette Gørtz

引用次数: 15

Women's Labor Force Participation and Household Technology Adoption 妇女劳动力参与与家庭技术采用

Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal Pub Date : 2020-01-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3520613

G. Bose, Tarun Jain, Sarah Walker

引用次数: 6