{"title":"Biological traits and biome features mediate responses of terrestrial bird demography to droughts.","authors":"Lyu Bing Zhang, Zilong Ma, Yang Liu","doi":"10.1111/1365-2656.14195","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.14195","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Changing drought regimes are a rising threat to biodiversity, yet their impacts on wildlife vary greatly. Acknowledging the factors associated with these consequences brings novel insights into species vulnerability resulting from extreme climatic events and facilitates effective mitigation of climate change risks. Based on 319 observations from 29 peer-reviewed studies on birds-a well-monitored taxonomic group-we extract the responses of demographic metrics to droughts for 204 species across eight terrestrial biomes to examine the consequences of droughts. According to relevant studies, we chose the factors potentially moderating bird demography under droughts and compiled the data for these factors from published datasets. A meta-analysis is performed to determine the drought effect on bird demography at individual and population levels, accounting for the influence of species traits, timescale and severity of droughts, as well as biome features. The results show that droughts have an overall negative effect on bird demography, and the effect is mediated by different factors at each level. For individuals exposed to droughts, declines in demographic rates are found to be related to narrower extents of occurrence of species, and a significant overall reduction in demographic rates is identified for individuals residing in deserts and xeric shrublands. At the population level, declines in abundance or reproductive performance are generally identified for invertivores, frugivores, nectarivores and omnivores; short-lived species with small clutch sizes also show greater susceptibilities under the impacts of droughts. Our findings additionally suggest that the demographic vulnerability of bird individuals and populations could be affected by the duration and magnitude of drought episodes. Although our results are subject to publication bias, these conclusions advance the assessment of vulnerability to extreme climatic events that used to be based on equally weighted species traits and support bird conservation by prioritizing the declining populations of species with drought-susceptible traits.</p>","PeriodicalId":14934,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Animal Ecology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142545542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Aurélie Jeantet, Fabienne Audebert, Simon Agostini, Beatriz Decencière, Camille Lorang, Laura Jamet, Clarisse Giner, Emma Flandi, Nora Nardou, Baptiste Lemaire, Pierre Federici, David Rozen-Rechels, Julien Gasparini
{"title":"Crossed effects of helminth infection and lead exposure on fitness: An experimental study in feral pigeons (Columba livia).","authors":"Aurélie Jeantet, Fabienne Audebert, Simon Agostini, Beatriz Decencière, Camille Lorang, Laura Jamet, Clarisse Giner, Emma Flandi, Nora Nardou, Baptiste Lemaire, Pierre Federici, David Rozen-Rechels, Julien Gasparini","doi":"10.1111/1365-2656.14211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.14211","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Living organisms are exposed to multiple environmental factors that can affect their fitness. The negative effects of these simultaneous stressors can be additive or can interact in negative synergistic or antagonistic ways to affect the health of exposed individuals. Parasites can accumulate pollutants in their own tissues and have been shown to increase the tolerance of their hosts to different pollutants (antagonistic interaction between parasites and pollutants). Through an experimental approach, we tested the existence of combined antagonistic effects between intestinal parasites and lead exposure on urban feral pigeons (Columba livia) which are known to be exposed to trace metal pollution and harbour a wide variety of internal and external parasites. We experimentally exposed wild feral pigeons in captivity to two treatments: an anthelmintic treatment to eliminate intestinal nematode parasites; an exposure to lead for a period of 6 months. We tested the effects of these crossed treatments on several components of fitness: immunocompetence, reproduction, and body mass. Our findings suggest that the overall effects of lead exposure, either alone or in combination with the presence of intestinal parasites (without anthelmintic treatment) were negative, through either additive or synergistic means. Our results reveal the existence of negative combined effects between pollutant exposure and intestinal parasites, highlighting the importance of accounting for multiple stress factors when studying the effects of exposure to pollutants and/or other environmental stressors on the fitness of organisms.</p>","PeriodicalId":14934,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Animal Ecology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142545543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lucas Invernizzi, Jean-François Lemaître, Mathieu Douhard
{"title":"The expensive son hypothesis.","authors":"Lucas Invernizzi, Jean-François Lemaître, Mathieu Douhard","doi":"10.1111/1365-2656.14207","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.14207","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In its initial form, the expensive son hypothesis postulates that sons from male-biased sexually dimorphic species require more food during growth than daughters, which ultimately incur fitness costs for mothers predominantly producing and rearing sons. We first dissect the evolutionary framework in which the expensive son hypothesis is rooted, and we provide a critical reappraisal of its differences from other evolutionary theories proposed in the field of sex allocation. Then, we synthesize the current (and absence of) support for the costs of producing and rearing sons on maternal fitness components (future reproduction and survival). Regarding the consequences in terms of future reproduction, we highlight that species with pronounced sexual size dimorphism display a higher cost of sons than of daughters on subsequent reproductive performance, at least in mammals. However, in most studies, the relative fitness costs of producing and rearing sons and daughters can be due to sex-biased maternal allocation strategies rather than differences in energetic demands of offspring, which constitutes an alternative mechanism to the expensive son hypothesis stricto sensu. We observe that empirical studies investigating the differential costs of sons and daughters on maternal survival in non-human animals remain rare, especially for long-term survival. Indeed, most studies have investigated the influence of offspring sex (or litter sex ratio) at year T on survival at year T + 1, and they rarely provide a support to the expensive son hypothesis. On the contrary, in humans, most studies have focused on the relationship between proportion of sons and maternal lifespan, but these results are inconsistent. Our study highlights new avenues for future research that should provide a comprehensive view of the expensive son hypothesis, by notably disentangling the effects of offspring behaviour from the effect of sex-specific maternal allocation. Moreover, we emphasize that future studies should also embrace the mechanistic side of the expensive son hypothesis, largely neglected so far, by deciphering the physiological pathways linking son's production to maternal health and fitness.</p>","PeriodicalId":14934,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Animal Ecology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142545545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Valentina Leoni, Valentina Franco-Trecu, Fabrizio Scarabino, Lia Sampognaro, Laura Rodríguez-Graña, Angel Manuel Segura
{"title":"Habitat dimensionality and feeding strategies but not temperature as determinants of body size-trophic structure relationship in a marine food web.","authors":"Valentina Leoni, Valentina Franco-Trecu, Fabrizio Scarabino, Lia Sampognaro, Laura Rodríguez-Graña, Angel Manuel Segura","doi":"10.1111/1365-2656.14199","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.14199","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Disentangling the determinants of trophic structure is central to ecology. The capacity to capture subjugate and consume a prey (i.e. gape limitation) is a relevant limitation to acquire energy for most organisms, especially those in smaller size ranges. This generates a size hierarchy of trophic positions in which large organisms consume small ones. Body size is tightly correlated to gape limitation and explains a large fraction of variance in the body size-trophic position relationship. However, a considerable fraction of variance still remains to be explained. Consumer search space dimensionality (2D or 3D) and feeding strategies, temperature and the size structure of primary producers can alter the trophic structure, but tests based on information from natural food webs are scarce. We generated specific predictions about the body size trophic position relationship and evaluated them using information from a subtropical South Atlantic coastal marine ecosystem: benthic realm (2D, rocky shore and sandy beach) and the pelagic realm (3D). We characterized this marine coastal food web based on stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen from 256 samples from primary producers (macroalgae and phytoplankton) to large predators (sand shark) in summer and winter. Consumer body size encompassed six orders of magnitude in weight from 10<sup>-2</sup> to 6 × 10<sup>4</sup> g. Isotopic signal corresponded to an integration of carbon sources from basal consumers to top predators. The body size-trophic position relationship showed a linear positive association with different slopes for the benthic and pelagic environments. This implies a smaller predator prey size ratio for pelagic (3D) with respect to benthic consumers (2D) as theoretically expected. No seasonal differences were found in slopes and most of the overall variance in benthic environments was largely explained by feeding strategies of the different taxonomic groups. We provide an integrated evaluation on the role of body size, consumer search space and feeding strategy to understand the determinants of trophic position. Results demonstrate that integrating gape limitation hypothesis, the dimensionality of consumer search space and feeding strategies into a formal robust framework to understand trophic structure is feasible even in complex natural ecosystems.</p>","PeriodicalId":14934,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Animal Ecology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142545544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Maggie M Jones, Robert Fletcher, Alex Potash, Muzi Sibiya, Robert McCleery
{"title":"Prey responses to direct and indirect predation risk cues reveal the importance of multiple information sources.","authors":"Maggie M Jones, Robert Fletcher, Alex Potash, Muzi Sibiya, Robert McCleery","doi":"10.1111/1365-2656.14209","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.14209","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Prey can use several information sources (cues) to assess predation risk and avoid predation with a variety of behavioural responses (e.g., changes in activity, foraging, vigilance, social behaviour, space use, and reproductive behaviour). Direct cues produced by predators and indirect cues from environmental features or conspecific and heterospecific prey generally provide different types of information about predation risk. Despite widespread interest in understanding behavioural antipredator responses to direct and indirect cues, a clear general pattern of relative response strength across taxa and environments has yet to emerge. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies (N = 113 articles and 999 effect sizes taken from a search of over 7500 articles) testing behavioural responses to direct and indirect cues of predation risk, and their combination, across terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. We further contrasted if effects were moderated by ecosystem type (terrestrial, marine, or freshwater), cue source (predator, conspecific, heterospecific, or environmental feature), or sensory modality (visual, auditory, or chemosensory). Overall, there were strong effects of risk cues on prey behaviour. We found that prey responded more strongly when both types of cues were presented together compared with either cue in isolation, which was driven by changes in prey activity levels but not other behaviours. There was no general pattern in response strength to direct compared with indirect cues. Responses to these cues were moderated by interactions between environment, cue source, and cue sensory modality (e.g., visual cues elicited stronger responses than other modalities, and responses to conspecific chemosensory cues were stronger than those to predator chemosensory cues in aquatic systems). These results suggest that rather than a broad framework of direct and indirect cues, the specific context of the system should be considered in tests and predictions of how prey respond to risk to elucidate general patterns of antipredator responses.</p>","PeriodicalId":14934,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Animal Ecology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142521974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Owen M Edwards, Lu Zhai, Michael S Reichert, Ciaran A Shaughnessy, Logan Ozment, Bo Zhang
{"title":"Physiological and morphological traits affect contemporary range expansion and implications for species distribution modelling in an amphibian species.","authors":"Owen M Edwards, Lu Zhai, Michael S Reichert, Ciaran A Shaughnessy, Logan Ozment, Bo Zhang","doi":"10.1111/1365-2656.14212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.14212","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Species range shifts due to climate alterations have been increasingly well-documented. Although amphibians are one of the most sensitive groups of animals to environmental perturbations due to climate change, almost no studies have offered evidence of poleward distribution shifts in this taxon in response to climate warming. Range shifts would be facilitated by variation in traits associated with the ability of species to persist and/or shift their range in the face of climate change, but the extent and consequences of intraspecific variation in these traits is unclear. We studied the role of intraspecific variation in the ongoing range shift of green treefrogs (Hyla cinerea) in response to climate change. We explored factors that are often associated with range shifts to test the hypothesis that there are differences in these traits between recently range-expanded and nearby historical populations. We then tested the consequences of intraspecific variation for modelling climate-induced range shifts by comparing species distribution models (SDMs) that used as input either data from the entire species range or separate inputs from 'subpopulations' corresponding to the historical range or the recently expanded range. We expected that building a separate SDM for each population would more accurately characterize the species range if historical and expanded populations differed in traits related to their response to climate. We found that critical thermal minimum decreased and thermal breadth increased with latitude, but the effect of latitude was significantly stronger for expanded populations compared to historical populations. Additionally, we found that individuals from expanded populations had longer leg lengths when compared to their historical counterparts. Finally, we found higher model accuracy for one of the population-level SDMs than the species-level SDM. Our results suggest that thermal tolerance and dispersal morphologies are associated with amphibian distributional shifts as these characteristics appear to facilitate rapid range expansion of a native anuran. Additionally, our modelling results emphasize that SDM accuracy could be improved by dividing a species range to consider potential differences in traits associated with climate responses. Future research should identify the mechanisms underlying intraspecific variation along climate gradients to continue improving SDM prediction of range shifts under climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":14934,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Animal Ecology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142500839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Laura Bartra-Cabré, Brage B Hansen, Aline M Lee, Kate Layton-Matthews, Maarten J J E Loonen, Eva Fuglei, Leif E Loe, Vidar Grøtan
{"title":"The role of indirect interspecific effects in the stochastic dynamics of a simple trophic system.","authors":"Laura Bartra-Cabré, Brage B Hansen, Aline M Lee, Kate Layton-Matthews, Maarten J J E Loonen, Eva Fuglei, Leif E Loe, Vidar Grøtan","doi":"10.1111/1365-2656.14198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.14198","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Indirect interspecific effects (IIEs) occur when one species affects another through a third intermediary species. Understanding the role of IIEs in population dynamics is key for predicting community-level impacts of environmental change. Yet, empirically teasing apart IIEs from other interactions and population drivers has proven challenging and data-demanding, particularly in species-rich communities. We used stochastic population models parameterized with long-term time series of individual data to simulate population trajectories and examine IIEs in a simple high-arctic vertebrate food chain consisting of the wild Svalbard reindeer, its scavenger (the Arctic fox) and the barnacle goose, a migratory prey of the fox. We used the simulated population trajectories to explore co-fluctuations between the species within the food chain. Additionally, we adjusted the model in two ways: first, to isolate the impact of fluctuations in the abundance of a species by keeping its abundance constant; and second, to isolate the impact of a trophic interaction on the dynamics of other species by setting the abundance of the influencing species to zero. We found that fluctuations in reindeer carcasses shaped fox abundance fluctuations, which subsequently affected goose population dynamics. Reindeer and goose population growth rates were nevertheless only weakly correlated, probably in part due to demographic and environmental stochasticity, density dependence and lagged dynamics in the geese. However, removing the fluctuations in reindeer abundance or setting reindeer abundance to zero indeed demonstrated strong underlying IIEs on goose population dynamics and extinction probability. This study thus highlights the importance of species interactions, including IIEs, on species coexistence and communities in the long-term, that is beyond immediate effects and covariation in short-term fluctuations.</p>","PeriodicalId":14934,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Animal Ecology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142500840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Matteo Beccardi, Ido Pen, Coraline Bichet, Barbara Tschirren, Oscar Vedder
{"title":"Inbreeding accelerates reproductive senescence, but not survival senescence, in a precocial bird.","authors":"Matteo Beccardi, Ido Pen, Coraline Bichet, Barbara Tschirren, Oscar Vedder","doi":"10.1111/1365-2656.14205","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.14205","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Inbreeding depression is predicted to increase with age, because natural selection is less efficient at purging deleterious alleles that are only expressed later in life. However, empirical results are scarce, and equivocal between studies. Here we performed controlled matings between related and unrelated individuals of domesticated Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica), and monitored the performance of their offspring for all fitness components over their complete life course. We found rapid senescence in adult survival and egg laying performance, and inbreeding depression at all life stages (reduced embryo viability, increased age at maturity, as well as reduced adult survival and reproduction). Inbreeding depression did not increase at later ages for survival, but did so for egg laying, thereby accelerating reproductive senescence. Moreover, the effect of inbreeding on egg laying persisted after correcting for lifespan, indicating that both survival and reproduction were independently affected by inbreeding. We suggest that in heterogeneous populations intra-generational purging may at earlier ages already select out the individuals that are homozygous for the specific alleles responsible for depressed survival, preventing the appearance of increased inbreeding depression in survival with age. Given that inbreeding affects reproduction independent of survival this should not apply to reproductive senescence or homogeneous populations, which may explain equivocal results between traits and studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":14934,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Animal Ecology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142500838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Hierarchies inferred from different agonistic behaviours are not always comparable.","authors":"Nikolaos Smit","doi":"10.1111/1365-2656.14203","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1365-2656.14203","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Social hierarchies are widely used to predict life-history patterns and priority of access to resources. Yet, behavioural ecology and social sciences lack a consistent relationship between specific behaviours and social rank across studies. I used published data sets from 42 groups of 25 species representing several taxa to determine whether hierarchies inferred from different behaviours are similar or (in)consistently different at both individual and group levels. Ranks inferred from yielding interactions in the absence of aggression ('ritualized') were often comparable to ranks inferred from decided aggression (unambiguous outcome) but not to ranks inferred from undecided aggression. Accordingly, hierarchies inferred from data sets including only decided interactions were steeper than those inferred from data sets including undecided aggression. These results support the hypothesis that aggression can be context-dependent and might reflect less stable or mutually recognized relationships than (ritualized) yielding interactions. I discuss the consequences of choosing different behaviours to infer social hierarchies and the difficulty of making generalizations from one species or taxon to another. Finally, I recommend that the use of ritualized yielding and certainly the use of decided over undecided interactions to infer social hierarchies should be preferred, especially in comparative studies which go beyond taxon-specific idiosyncrasies.</p>","PeriodicalId":14934,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Animal Ecology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142466073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Bilgecan Şen, Christian Che-Castaldo, H Reşit Akçakaya
{"title":"The potential for species distribution models to distinguish source populations from sinks.","authors":"Bilgecan Şen, Christian Che-Castaldo, H Reşit Akçakaya","doi":"10.1111/1365-2656.14201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.14201","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>While species distribution models (SDM) are frequently used to predict species occurrences to help inform conservation management, there is limited evidence evaluating whether habitat suitability can reliably predict intrinsic growth rates or distinguish source populations from sinks. Filling this knowledge gap is critical for conservation science, as applications of SDMs for management purposes ultimately depend on these typically unobserved population or metapopulation dynamics. Using linear regression, we associated previously published population level estimates of intrinsic growth and abundance derived from a Bayesian analysis of mark-recapture data for 17 bird species found in the contiguous United States with SDM habitat suitability estimates fitted here to opportunistic data for these same species. We then used the area under the ROC curve (AUC) to measure how well SDMs can distinguish populations categorized as sources and sinks. We built SDMs using two different approaches, boosted regression trees (BRT) and generalized linear models (GLM), and compared their source/sink predictive performance. Each SDM was built with presence points obtained from eBird (a web-available database) and 10 environmental variables previously selected to model intrinsic growth rates and abundance for these species. We show that SDMs built with opportunistic data are poor predictors of species demography in general; both BRT and GLM explained very little spatial variation of intrinsic growth rate and population abundance (median R<sup>2</sup> across 17 species was close to 0.1 for both SDM methods). SDMs, however, estimated higher suitability for source populations as compared to sinks. Out of 13 species which had both source and sink populations, both BRT and GLM had AUC values greater than 0.7 for 7 species when discriminating between sources and sinks. Habitat suitability have the potential to be a useful measure to indicate a population's ability to sustain itself as a source population; however more research on a diverse set of taxa is essential to fully explore this potential. This interpretation of habitat suitability can be particularly useful for conservation practice, and identification of explicit cases of when and how SDMs fail to match population demography can be informative for advancing ecological theory.</p>","PeriodicalId":14934,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Animal Ecology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142466074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}