Journal of Air Transport Management最新文献

{"title":"Data-driven governing equation identification of near terminal air traffic flow dynamics","authors":"Qihang Xu,&nbsp;Yutian Pang,&nbsp;Zhiming Zhang,&nbsp;Yongming Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102871","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102871","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Efficient air traffic management (ATM) relies on accurately understanding and predicting air traffic patterns and delays. While deep learning methods have shown promise in prediction tasks, they often lack interpretability and require large volumes of data. This paper presents a novel, data-driven framework to model and predict near-terminal traffic flow and flight delays by identifying the underlying partial differential equations (PDEs) that govern air traffic dynamics. Our approach leverages aircraft trajectory patterns and density distributions to estimate probability density functions (PDFs) of travel times. Using sparse regression for system identification, we learn the governing equations that capture the temporal evolution of density and travel time distributions. These equations are then embedded into a Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) for integrated prediction. Experiments with real-world data validate the framework’s effectiveness in accurately identifying governing PDEs and forecasting flight delays. By combining physical modeling with deep learning, the proposed method improves both the interpretability and generalizability of AI applications in ATM, offering practical value in enhancing airport efficiency and operational decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"129 ","pages":"Article 102871"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144779335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating cargo capacity determinants in desertic airports using Bayesian Network (BN) analysis","authors":"Sharaf AlKheder,&nbsp;Shrouq Almutairi","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102879","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102879","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since the inauguration of Kuwait International Airport in 1960, Kuwait's transition from an oil-based economy to a key aviation industry player in the region has been marked. This study investigates the cargo capacity determinants at Kuwait International Airport (KIA) from 2011 to 2021, employing Bayesian Network (BN) analysis. It dissects aviation data into two five-year periods to discern time-sensitive influences on the aviation network, focusing on scheduled and non-scheduled cargo flights. The study tests economic factors like GDP, population, jet fuel prices, inflation rates, and exchange rates. Results indicate that GDP and exchange rate are pivotal for cargo capacity throughout the decade. In the first five years, the exchange rate solely influenced cargo capacity, while in the latter half, both the exchange rate and inflation were significant factors. Additionally, cargo capacity was indirectly impacted by fuel prices through inflation. A sensitivity analysis reveals the varying impacts on cargo capacity: inflation had the highest sensitivity, causing a 36 % increase in cargo capacity for a 7.5–15.5 % inflation rate increase during 2016–2021. Exchange rates and fuel prices followed with 32 % and 14 % sensitivity, respectively. The study also notes that changes in GDP and exchange rates had relatively minor effects on cargo capacity in the first half of the decade. This abstract summarizes the research's aim, methods, and crucial findings, emphasizing their relevance in understanding cargo capacity dynamics at KIA amidst Kuwait's economic evolution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"129 ","pages":"Article 102879"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144826662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An investigation of the relationship among weather, low-level wind shear and aircraft go-around at Jeju International Airport in Korea","authors":"Jinho Cho ,&nbsp;Yonghwa Lee ,&nbsp;Hojong Baik ,&nbsp;Janghoon Park","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102860","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102860","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Wind shear (WS) refers to an abrupt change in wind speed and/or direction, whether in a vertical or horizontal direction. In particular, low-level wind shear (hereafter LLWS) is a type of WS that occurs at or below an altitude of approximately 1600 ft (500 m) and thus affects aircraft operations during landing or take-off phases. Jeju International Airport (CJU) is well-known for experiencing frequent LLWS and consequent occurrence of go-around (GA) operations (also referred to as missed approach). LLWS is known to be elusive and thus difficult to predict. Most previous studies are concerned with elucidating LLWS from a meteorological angle, without considering its potential effects on flight operations. In this study, we investigate the weather conditions that lead to LLWS at CJU airport and then seek the linkage between LLWS and go-around operations. General weather information and flight records containing aircraft speed, altitude, and specific weather observations during GA at CJU airport are collected. We empirically categorize five wind patterns that contribute to severe LLWS and necessitate go-around operations. In this paper, we drive a probability table that summarizes the chances of go-around operations according to the wind direction and speed. We also discuss limitations and areas for future research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"129 ","pages":"Article 102860"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144655328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flight schedules under partnership: The effects of capacity purchase agreements on airline schedule buffers","authors":"Jules Yimga","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102876","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102876","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how capacity purchase agreements (CPAs) between major U.S. network carriers and their regional airline partners affect schedule padding practices. Using a large dataset of over 7 million flight-level observations from 2023 and distinguishing between flights operated directly by mainline carriers and those operated by regional partners under branded CPA arrangements, we assess whether CPAs incentivize airlines to pad schedules more aggressively. Results consistently show that CPA-operated flights have significantly more schedule padding than mainline-operated flights, with the effect being most pronounced in long-haul markets. These findings amplify the dual-edged nature of such partnerships: while CPAs support network connectivity and operational reliability, the systematically longer scheduled block times may reduce aircraft utilization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"129 ","pages":"Article 102876"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144771461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Route expansion trends, performances and driving factors of Chinese low-cost carriers","authors":"Chuntao Wu,&nbsp;Xiaohe He,&nbsp;Wenjing Xue","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102861","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102861","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"129 ","pages":"Article 102861"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144670432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cross-border capacity sharing in air traffic control: which area control centres in Europe are the best candidates?","authors":"Goran Pavlović ,&nbsp;Milan Stanojević ,&nbsp;Radosav Jovanović","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102878","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102878","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Air traffic in Europe is recovering strongly after a period of unprecedented traffic downturn caused by COVID-19 pandemic. Significant capacity bottlenecks again occur in various parts of the Air Traffic Management (ATM) network, leading to excessive delays and attracting pronounced public interest. Over the past decade, the concept of cross-border ATS (Air Traffic Services) provision has come under the spotlight as a potential solution to enhance capacity utilization. Two key strategic questions arise: what are the expected benefits and which Area Control Centres (ACCs) in Europe are the best candidates for such cooperation? To address those, we developed a two-phase approach supported by mathematical models. Results suggest that the potential savings at network level from the “super-ATCO (Air Traffic Control Officer)” concept amount to 300–350 ATCOs (or 7 %) compared to individual rostering on a single day of operations. However, up to 74 % of such theoretical savings can already be achieved by means of optimal pairing of ACCs. Our findings may assist policy-makers in establishing adequate incentive mechanisms for early adopters. Moreover, the developed methodology can serve as a valuable strategic asset for decision-makers and Network Manager to accelerate the implementation of ATS delegation, following recent adoption of the SES2+ regulation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"129 ","pages":"Article 102878"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144827988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Study on the subsidy efficiency of small and medium-sized airports in China based on social economic impact","authors":"Yongkang Song ,&nbsp;Yanhua Li ,&nbsp;Hanchen Ke ,&nbsp;Keyan Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102852","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102852","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Existing studies on airport efficiency predominantly emphasize operational performance, often overlooking airports' social responsibilities as public infrastructure. This study adopts a socioeconomic impact analysis perspective to evaluate the subsidy efficiency of 56 small and medium-sized airports in China from 2015 to 2019, offering insights to improve the interaction between airport operations and socioeconomic development. The study consists of two main components. Firstly, Network Data Envelopment Analysis (NDEA) decomposes the subsidy process into two sub-processes: stimulating air transport volume and enhancing socioeconomic development, enabling a detailed efficiency assessment. Secondly, a panel data regression model is utilized to analyze the key factors influencing subsidy efficiency. The efficiency assessment highlights that the weak correlation between airport operations and regional economic development is the primary barrier to improving subsidy efficiency. Additionally, the results reveal significant geographic disparities, with airports in eastern regions exhibiting higher subsidy efficiency than those in the west. The panel regression analysis identifies several factors with substantial positive effects on subsidy efficiency, including the number of airlines and connected destinations, the city's population size, and highway passenger traffic. To the best of our knowledge, this study is among the first to evaluate airport subsidy efficiency, specifically focusing on social economic outcomes, particularly for small and medium-sized airports. By extending the scope of existing research on airport efficiency evaluation, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of the role of subsidies in supporting smaller airports and their relationship with social development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 102852"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The economic impact of the inoperability of the airport at a small-island tourism destination: The case of Madeira","authors":"António Almeida ,&nbsp;Luiz Pinto Machado ,&nbsp;Brian Garrod","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102845","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102845","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change means that tourism on small islands is increasingly vulnerable to the disruptive effects of adverse weather conditions. Many small islands rely upon a single airport, so when weather conditions cause inbound flights to be delayed, diverted, or even cancelled, this will tend to reduce tourists' length of stay. There may also be longer-term damage to the destination's image in terms of transport reliability. This paper sets out to estimate the economic impact of weather-related flight delays and cancellations at a small-island tourism destination. Using Madeira as an example, a two-stage estimation approach was developed using both primary and secondary data. Based on the premise that around 1% of tourists are affected by delays that result in shorter stays, several scenarios were developed and estimates of their economic impacts computed. The results suggest that while the short-term economic impact may be relatively small, the longer-term effects may be more substantial.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 102845"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144502424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of connection time on connected itineraries in Indian domestic aviation market","authors":"Mustansir Farooq,&nbsp;M. Manoj,&nbsp;K. Ramachandra Rao","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102851","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102851","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Connected air itineraries are an integral part of air travel. There is a mixed perception among passengers regarding connections at an intermediate airport as they present a range of difficulties, such as the chances of missing a flight, and loosing or delaying of checked-in baggage. In addition, operational issues (long inter-terminal transfers, inadequate availability of intra-airport shuttle services, delays in baggage check-in, etc.) at the airports also cause inconvenience to passengers using connected itineraries. One of the critical backend procedures to provide uninterrupted and efficient air travel for passengers is the provision of minimum connection time (MCT) at an airport for an itinerary with a connection, which is vital for flight operations. There have been discussions on the amount of time spent for a connection, and the conventional belief that passengers favour short connection times is widespread among air travellers. This study aims to analyse this hypothesis for domestic air itineraries by using a revealed preference data collected in India. A multinomial logit (MNL) specification with correction for price endogeneity is adopted to model airline itinerary choice of passengers. A recursive method in MNL is used to dynamically create the utility function to handle large and varying alternatives. For alternative choice set generation, actual (real) alternatives available to passengers are used in the MNL model. A piecewise linear specification is used to address the non-linearity of the connection time for direct itineraries (includes a stop, with no plane change) and connected itineraries (includes a stop, with a plane change). Results reveal that there is a positive influence of connection time on utilities up to 120 min for connected itineraries. The connection time duration of 90–120 min for connected itineraries is found to provide maximum utility to flyers, balancing the need for sufficient time to navigate transitions such as security checks and gate changes, while minimizing the inconvenience of extended waiting periods. For direct itineraries a connection time beyond 35 min is found to reduce the utility substantially on direct itineraries. To understand the economic significance of the connection time, the willingness to pay estimates are evaluated and validated by estimating confidence intervals using Monte Carlo simulations using a truncated normal distribution. Findings reveal that flyers are willing to pay INR 14 (USD 0.16) per minute up to 90 min and INR 30 (USD 0.36) per minute for reductions beyond 120 min for connected itineraries. In contrast, for direct itineraries, passengers are willing to pay INR 2.8 (USD 0.03) per minute for layovers up to 35 min and INR 66 (USD 0.77) per minute for reductions beyond 35 min. This paper provides insights regarding the willingness to pay for each additional minute on a connection, thereby can help carriers to schedule their connections and provide adequate connec","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 102851"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evidence-based analysis on the hazard causation of general aviation in China","authors":"Wenchao Wang,&nbsp;Jian He,&nbsp;Jingjing Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102857","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102857","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The insufficient hazard management capacity of general aviation enterprises has led to frequent safety incidents and placed the industry in a persistent safety dilemma. Enhancing hazard identification and control is therefore critical to improving the current unstable safety situation. This paper proposes an evidence-based analytical approach to systematically examine hazard causation in general aviation, integrating factors across human, technical, environmental, and managerial domains. Drawing on accident chain theory, a risk coefficient-based optimization model is developed, and an evidence-based hazard tracing method is constructed within the EBAS-HO framework, which builds upon and improves the HOP-HFACS model. Grey Relational Analysis and structural entropy theory are employed to assess hazard interactions and system structure. Results. The analysis of 43 accident cases identifies six key hazard factors: safety production cost, human error, occupational factors, emergency preparedness, technical safety measures, and environmental conditions. In addition, violations behavior serves as a critical mediating factor linking other variables to accident occurrence. Comparative model evaluation demonstrates that the proposed EBAS-HO framework outperforms traditional HFACS in terms of accuracy, structure, and predictive capability. Compared to conventional hazard identification approaches, the integration of evidence-based tracing and control enhances the visibility and traceability of system hazards, enabling more targeted safety interventions. This approach substantially improves hazard governance and safety management capacity in the general aviation sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 102857"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}