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Asian Journal of Economic Modelling最新文献

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Anomalies in Asia Pacific Stock Markets: A Re-Examination of the Turn-of-the-Year Effect 亚太股市的异常现象:对岁末效应的重新审视
Asian Journal of Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2022-06-17 DOI: 10.55493/5009.v10i3.4522
Quang Thien Tran, T. Huynh
{"title":"Anomalies in Asia Pacific Stock Markets: A Re-Examination of the Turn-of-the-Year Effect","authors":"Quang Thien Tran, T. Huynh","doi":"10.55493/5009.v10i3.4522","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.55493/5009.v10i3.4522","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the turn-of-the-year (TOY) effect in fifteen Asia Pacific stock indices by using an updated dataset. The analysis utilizes the daily datasets spanning from 2000 to 2018. Applying the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (EGARCH) approach, the results of this paper suggest that the TOY effect becomes detectable again after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in developed markets with the tax year not ending in December. Furthermore, the magnitude of this anomaly diminishes in emerging markets after the GFC, which is consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The evidence of the leverage effect in the market volatility shows in negative shocks that it is considerably higher than that of positive shocks for all markets. This phenomenon is more evident in mature markets compared to emerging markets. The positive connection between the leverage effect and stock market volatility is seen with diminishing magnitude during the stable market condition after the GFC.","PeriodicalId":147053,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Economic Modelling","volume":"90 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123441255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nexus Between FDI and Tourism: Empirical Evidence from Asian Countries 外国直接投资与旅游业的关系:来自亚洲国家的经验证据
Asian Journal of Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2022-06-16 DOI: 10.55493/5009.v10i2.4520
Sujan Chandra Paul, S. K. Deb, Md. Abir Hossain, Mallika Saha
{"title":"Nexus Between FDI and Tourism: Empirical Evidence from Asian Countries","authors":"Sujan Chandra Paul, S. K. Deb, Md. Abir Hossain, Mallika Saha","doi":"10.55493/5009.v10i2.4520","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.55493/5009.v10i2.4520","url":null,"abstract":"This research aims to look into the impact of foreign direct investment on tourism. Panel data from 46 Asian countries between 1998 and 2018 were collated for this study. The OLS, POLS, 2SLS, and GMM models were used in this study. A substantial correlation was found between between foreign direct investment and the number of international tourist departures in all models except the POLS model, and with the exception of the GMM model, there was a significant negative association between foreign direct investment and international tourism spending. In the POLS model, there is a significant positive relationship between foreign direct investment and international tourism receipts for passenger transport items, as well as expenditures for passenger transport items and international tourism receipts, and a significant negative relationship between foreign direct investment and international tourism receipts for passenger transport items. In the 2SLS model, there is a significant positive relationship with international tourism receipt. In the GMM model, there is a significant positive relationship between foreign direct investment and international tourism and a significant negative relationship between foreign direct investment and international tourism receipt, expressed in percentage of total exports.","PeriodicalId":147053,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Economic Modelling","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116841242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does Manufacturing Sector Output Significantly Predict Economic Growth in Nigeria? 制造业产出能显著预测尼日利亚经济增长吗?
Asian Journal of Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2022-06-16 DOI: 10.55493/5009.v10i2.4521
A. Umaru, Yakubu Egede, James Ayuba
{"title":"Does Manufacturing Sector Output Significantly Predict Economic Growth in Nigeria?","authors":"A. Umaru, Yakubu Egede, James Ayuba","doi":"10.55493/5009.v10i2.4521","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.55493/5009.v10i2.4521","url":null,"abstract":"The predictive power of the manufacturing output on growth is a topical issue, especially with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects on global manufacturing and economic activities. As such, this study examines how Nigeria’s manufacturing output can be observed in estimating economic growth. The ARDL model and OLS technique were employed in our assessments, and quarterly data was sourced from the CBN statistical bulletin for 2019 and the NBS annual report from 2010Q1 to 2020Q4. The study finds that manufacturing output positively and significantly affects growth in Nigeria and therefore can significantly predict further economic growth and, by extension, recession in Nigeria. It also recommends the need to improve the ease of doing business and security, adjusting interest rates for manufacturers, stabilize the exchange rate, develop infrastructure, and increase interventions in the manufacturing sector in Nigeria.","PeriodicalId":147053,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Economic Modelling","volume":"476 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115873940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Dynamic Shocks of Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rate on Food Prices in Emerging Countries of Southeast Asia: A Panel Vector Autoregression Model 原油价格和汇率对东南亚新兴国家食品价格的动态冲击:面板向量自回归模型
Asian Journal of Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2022-06-15 DOI: 10.55493/5009.v10i2.4517
F. A. Hassan
{"title":"Dynamic Shocks of Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rate on Food Prices in Emerging Countries of Southeast Asia: A Panel Vector Autoregression Model","authors":"F. A. Hassan","doi":"10.55493/5009.v10i2.4517","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.55493/5009.v10i2.4517","url":null,"abstract":"This paper empirically analyzes food price responses to shocks from crude oil price and exchange rate volatility in five emerging Southeast Asian nations between 2000 and 2020 using impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis of the dynamic panel Vector Autoregression approach. Based on the findings of the impulse response functions analysis, food prices respond positively to both oil price and exchange rate shocks. Meanwhile, the results of variance decomposition analysis show that food prices account for a significant portion of volatility in its own shock. The contribution of oil price shock to food price volatility is found to be greater than the contribution of exchange rate shock. Hence, the study recommends that policymakers in these nations should be vigilant about the impacts of oil price and exchange rate shocks on food prices since these factors may undermine price stability and exacerbate food security.","PeriodicalId":147053,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Economic Modelling","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130955388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do Entrepreneurship and Sectoral Outputs Support Sustainable Development: A Literature Review and an Empirical Assessment for Developed Countries 企业家精神和部门产出是否支持可持续发展:对发达国家的文献回顾和实证评估
Asian Journal of Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2022-05-31 DOI: 10.55493/5009.v10i2.4503
S. Daly, Chadia Garroud
{"title":"Do Entrepreneurship and Sectoral Outputs Support Sustainable Development: A Literature Review and an Empirical Assessment for Developed Countries","authors":"S. Daly, Chadia Garroud","doi":"10.55493/5009.v10i2.4503","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.55493/5009.v10i2.4503","url":null,"abstract":"The objective of this paper is to explore the relationship between entrepreneurship and sectoral outputs and three dimensions of sustainable development using the FMOLS technique for a panel of 21 developed countries covering the period 2001-2016. Our empirical results reveal that entrepreneurship and sectoral outputs have a significant positive impact on economic growth. They also indicate that entrepreneurship and sectoral outputs could play an essential role in resolving environmental problems. Our findings also show that entrepreneurship and sectoral outputs can support human development. On a global level, we can say that entrepreneurship and sectoral outputs could reinforce sustainable development.","PeriodicalId":147053,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Economic Modelling","volume":"135 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117353880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Board Structure and Dividend Payout Policy: Empirical Evidence from BIST 100, Turkey 董事会结构与股利支付政策:来自土耳其BIST 100的实证证据
Asian Journal of Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2022-04-04 DOI: 10.55493/5009.v10i1.4459
Abdela Yasin Saliya, Hatice Dogukanli
{"title":"The Board Structure and Dividend Payout Policy: Empirical Evidence from BIST 100, Turkey","authors":"Abdela Yasin Saliya, Hatice Dogukanli","doi":"10.55493/5009.v10i1.4459","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.55493/5009.v10i1.4459","url":null,"abstract":"There are various theories regarding the secret of dividend preference over other alternatives. The most notable of these dividend theories is the agency theory. Dividends play a vital role in mitigating agency costs between shareholders and managers. This study is distinct from others since it includes more separate board structure variables with long study periods using a panel econometric model. Hence, the present study aims to investigate the links between board attributes and dividends payout policy of listed industrial companies of Turkey from 2011 to 2019. Data were collected from the sampled companies that were listed on the Borsa Istanbul BIST 100 indexes as of December 31, 2019, from Finnet (data provider). The study employed the panel Tobit model and found a significant positive effect of board size on dividend payout policy and a significant negative impact of board meeting frequency on the payout policy of listed companies in Turkey.","PeriodicalId":147053,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Economic Modelling","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125058814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Deficit Financing Components, Inflation and Capital Formation in Nigeria: Evidence from a Direct and Indirect Analysis 尼日利亚的赤字融资构成、通货膨胀和资本形成:来自直接和间接分析的证据
Asian Journal of Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2022-03-29 DOI: 10.55493/5009.v10i1.4454
S. Aladejare
{"title":"Deficit Financing Components, Inflation and Capital Formation in Nigeria: Evidence from a Direct and Indirect Analysis","authors":"S. Aladejare","doi":"10.55493/5009.v10i1.4454","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.55493/5009.v10i1.4454","url":null,"abstract":"Deficit financing occasioned by low domestic savings and low capital formation, have characterised the Nigerian economy since the 1970s with attendant increase in inflation. Empirical studies on Nigeria have shown that deficit financing directly affects inflation and capital formation when examined independently. However, little attention has been paid to a simultaneous investigation of the direct and indirect effects of deficit financing components on inflation and capital formation for Nigeria. Consequently, this study was designed to fill this gap through time series data and the instrumental variable approach. The study found that deficit financing components indirectly impacted on inflation and capital formation in Nigeria from 1970 to 2017; as against the direct effects reported in empirical studies. Also, inflation was found to have had adverse effect on capital formation. Hence, better synergy of fiscal and monetary policies to effectively tame inflation and ensure growth of capital formation was recommended.","PeriodicalId":147053,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Economic Modelling","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131241184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Impact of Saudi's Membership in Global and Arab Economic Blocs on its Agricultural Foreign Trade 沙特加入全球和阿拉伯经济集团对其农业对外贸易的影响
Asian Journal of Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2021-12-13 DOI: 10.18488/journal.8.2021.94.230.245
Rehab Said Ibrahem, Eman Aish Al brahim
{"title":"Impact of Saudi's Membership in Global and Arab Economic Blocs on its Agricultural Foreign Trade","authors":"Rehab Said Ibrahem, Eman Aish Al brahim","doi":"10.18488/journal.8.2021.94.230.245","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.8.2021.94.230.245","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, the world has witnessed many changes in international economic relations, and the global system has crystallized into major economic blocs aimed at strengthening the position of these blocs in the framework of global international trade and economic stability. Accordingly, the research aims to study the impact of the accession of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to the membership of some economic blocs on Saudi agricultural foreign trade during the time period (1995-2019). By depend on both descriptive and quantitative statistical analysis. To study the evolution of the value of agricultural exports and imports and the most important factors affecting each of them, used of some indicators of export competitiveness such as a measure of geographical and commodity concentration. Also used the simultaneous equations method to build an econometric model to analyze the structure of agricultural foreign trade and its estimation by Two-Stage least squares (2SLS) method, the paper predicts the future of Saudi agricultural foreign trade. The research relied on secondary data. The results of the study expect that the average per capita share of agricultural exports, imports and agricultural Balance Deficit will reach about 600, 3.600 and 2.900 thousand riyals, respectively, during the year 2026.","PeriodicalId":147053,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Economic Modelling","volume":"363 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115970034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does Foreign Direct Investment Generate Long-Term Growth in Ghana? 外国直接投资能给加纳带来长期增长吗?
Asian Journal of Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2021-09-02 DOI: 10.18488/journal.8.2021.93.214.229
A. Benedict, Kyei Baffour Tutu, Afenya Millicent Salase
{"title":"Does Foreign Direct Investment Generate Long-Term Growth in Ghana?","authors":"A. Benedict, Kyei Baffour Tutu, Afenya Millicent Salase","doi":"10.18488/journal.8.2021.93.214.229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.8.2021.93.214.229","url":null,"abstract":"In pursuant to sustainable economic growth on the ticket of FDI-led growth hypothesis, the government of Ghana has instituted a myriad of thoughtful policy reforms to help boost the economy to realize a self-sustaining economic growth. To some extent, the policies might have paid off as the country was named the highest recipient of FDI in West Africa in 2018. However, the supposed upsurge in the inflow of foreign direct investment in the country and its expected long-run spillover benefits have not been tangibly felt in the region as the economy continues to oscillate. Therefore, this study utilized two methods; the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and the variance decomposition method (VDM) to empirically examine economic growth of Ghana as a function of foreign direct investment (FDI) whiles controlling for exchange rate, financial development, trade oppeness and employment rate. The results of the study endorses the FDI-led growth for Ghana by indicating that a positive long run causal impact flows from FDI to economic growth. The findings from the VDM test affirm the results are robust and reliable. Therefore, the study suggests that government should amplify FDI inflow via policies like incentives to draw more foreign investors directly into other sectors other than the conventional sectors gratified by foreign investors.","PeriodicalId":147053,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Economic Modelling","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130791939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Growth Effect of Fiscal Policy in Dependent Natural Resources Countries: Case of a Monetary Union 依赖自然资源国家财政政策的增长效应:以货币联盟为例
Asian Journal of Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.18488/journal.8.2020.82.96.105
G. Nkemgha, Eric Mouchili Moumié
{"title":"Growth Effect of Fiscal Policy in Dependent Natural Resources Countries: Case of a Monetary Union","authors":"G. Nkemgha, Eric Mouchili Moumié","doi":"10.18488/journal.8.2020.82.96.105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.8.2020.82.96.105","url":null,"abstract":"This paper contributes to the understanding of the other neglected effects of fiscal policy by analyzing how it affects economic growth in developing countries over the period 1980?2014.The empirical evidence is based on a Pooled Mean Group approach. With the panel of dependent natural resources countries that all are members of a Central Africa Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), the results show that fiscal policy measured as budget deficit has a positive and significant effect on growth in the short-run while it has a negative and significant effect on economic growth in the long run. The results of a short-run country effect analysis show the effectiveness of fiscal policy in all the countries of the union with an important effect in Equatorial Guinea and the less effect in Cameroon. There for, it would be important for the governments of these countries to diversify their economy, increase the share of manufacturing exports in their total exports and finally rigorously manage their public spending.","PeriodicalId":147053,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Economic Modelling","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123994158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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