J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul.最新文献_第8页

A Simulation Model of the Radicalisation Process Based on the IVEE Theoretical Framework 基于IVEE理论框架的激进化过程仿真模型

J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. Pub Date : 2020-06-30 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4345

R. Pepys, Robert Bowles, N. Bouhana

{"title":"A Simulation Model of the Radicalisation Process Based on the IVEE Theoretical Framework","authors":"R. Pepys, Robert Bowles, N. Bouhana","doi":"10.18564/jasss.4345","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.4345","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a simulation model describing the radicalisation process. The radicalisation process is a complex human socio-environmental process which has been of much academic interest for the past two decades. Despite this it is still poorly understood and is an extremely difficult area for social scientists to research. It is a subject which suffers from a lack of available data, making the construction of an effective simulation model particularly challenging. In order to construct the simulation in this paper we rely on a theoretical framework which was originally developed as a means of synthesising the academic literature on radicalisation. This theoretical framework has three levels: individual vulnerability to radicalisation, exposure to radicalising moral contexts, and the emergence of radicalising settings. We adapt this framework into a simulation model by first re-constructing it as an individual-level state-transition model. Next, appropriate data is sought to parameterise the model. A parallel is drawn between the process of radicalisation and the process by which people develop the propensity to participate in more general acts of criminality; this analogy enables considerably more data to be used in parameterisation. The model is then calibrated by considering the logical differences between crime and terrorism which might lead to differences in the radicalisation and criminality development processes. The model is validated against stylised facts, demonstrating that despite being highly theoretical the simulation is capable of producing a realistic output. Possible uses of the model to evaluate the effectiveness of counter-radicalisation measures are also considered.","PeriodicalId":14675,"journal":{"name":"J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul.","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74021227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Grade Language Heterogeneity in Simulation Models of Peer Review 同行评议模拟模型中的等级语言异质性

J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. Pub Date : 2020-06-30 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4284

Thomas Feliciani, Ramanathan Moorthy, P. Lucas, K. Shankar

引用次数: 2

Cascades Across Networks Are Sufficient for the Formation of Echo Chambers: An Agent-Based Model 跨网络的级联足以形成回声室:一个基于代理的模型

J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. Pub Date : 2020-05-21 DOI: 10.31234/osf.io/8rgkc

Jan-Philipp Fränken, Toby D. Pilditch

{"title":"Cascades Across Networks Are Sufficient for the Formation of Echo Chambers: An Agent-Based Model","authors":"Jan-Philipp Fränken, Toby D. Pilditch","doi":"10.31234/osf.io/8rgkc","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/8rgkc","url":null,"abstract":"Investigating how echo chambers emerge in social networks is increasingly crucial, given their role in facilitating the retention of misinformation, inducing intolerance towards opposing views, and misleading public and political discourse (e.g., disbelief in climate change). Previously, the emergence of echo chambers has been attributed to psychological biases and inter-individual differences, requiring repeated interactions among network-users. In the present work we show that two core components of social networks—users self-select their networks, and information is shared laterally (i.e. peer-to-peer)—are causally sufficient to produce echo chambers. Crucially, we show that this requires neither special psychological explanation (e.g., bias or individual differences), nor repeated interactions—though these may be exacerbating factors. In fact, this effect is made increasingly worse the more generations of peer-to-peer transmissions it takes for information to permeate a network. This raises important questions for social network architects, if truly opposed to the increasing prevalence of deleterious societal trends that stem from echo chamber formation.","PeriodicalId":14675,"journal":{"name":"J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul.","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79975719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8

Halting SARS-CoV-2 by Targeting High-Contact Individuals 以高接触者为目标遏制SARS-CoV-2

J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. Pub Date : 2020-05-18 DOI: 10.18564/JASSS.4435

Gianluca Manzo, A. Rijt

引用次数: 23

The Unknown of the Pandemic: An Agent-Based Model of Final Phase Risks 大流行的未知:基于主体的最后阶段风险模型

J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3584368

M. Cremonini, S. Maghool

{"title":"The Unknown of the Pandemic: An Agent-Based Model of Final Phase Risks","authors":"M. Cremonini, S. Maghool","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3584368","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3584368","url":null,"abstract":"Lifting social restrictions is one of the most critical decisions that public health authorities have to face during a pandemic such as COVID-19 This work focuses on the risk associated with such a decision We have called the period from the re-opening decision to epidemic expiration the ’final epidemic phase’, and con-sidered the critical epidemic conditions which could possibly emerge in this phase The factors we have consid-ered include: the proportion of asymptomatic cases, a mitigation strategy based on testing and the average duration of infectious states By assuming hypothetical configurations at the time of the re-opening decision and the partial knowledge concerning epidemic dynamics available to public health authorities, we have analyzed the risk of the re-opening decision based on possibly unreliable estimates We have presented a discrete-time stochastic model with state-dependent transmission probabilities and multi-agent simulations Our results show the different outcomes produced by different proportions of undetected asymptomatic cases, different probabilities of asymptomatic cases detected and contained, and a multivariate analysis of risk based on the average duration of asymptomatic and contained states Finally, our analysis highlights that enduring uncer-tainty, typical of this pandemic, requires a risk analysis approach to complement epidemiological studies © 2020, University of Surrey All rights reserved","PeriodicalId":14675,"journal":{"name":"J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul.","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80831909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8

RecovUS: An Agent-Based Model of Post-Disaster Household Recovery RecovUS:一个基于主体的灾后家庭恢复模型

J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4445

Saeed Moradi, A. Nejat

{"title":"RecovUS: An Agent-Based Model of Post-Disaster Household Recovery","authors":"Saeed Moradi, A. Nejat","doi":"10.18564/jasss.4445","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.4445","url":null,"abstract":"The housing sector is an important part of every community. It directly affects people, constitutes a major share of the building market, and shapes the community. Meanwhile, the increase of developments in hazard-prone areas along with the intensification of extreme events has amplified the potential for disaster-induced losses. Consequently, housing recovery is of vital importance to the overall restoration of a community. In this relation, recovery models can help with devising data-driven policies that can better identify pre-disaster mitigation needs and post-disaster recovery priorities by predicting the possible outcomes of different plans. Although several recovery models have been proposed, there are still gaps in the understanding of how decisions made by individuals and different entities interact to output the recovery. Additionally, integrating spatial aspects of recovery is a missing key in many models. The current research proposes a spatial model for simulation and prediction of homeownersâ€™ recovery decisions through incorporating recovery drivers that could capture interactions of individual, communal, and organizational decisions. RecovUS is a spatial agent-based model for which all the input data can be obtained from publicly available data sources. The model is presented using the data on the recovery of Staten Island, New York, after Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The results confirm that the combination of internal, interactive, and external drivers of recovery affect householdsâ€™ decisions and shape the progress of recovery.","PeriodicalId":14675,"journal":{"name":"J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul.","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83571968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 11

Metamodels for Evaluating, Calibrating and Applying Agent-Based Models: A Review 评估、校准和应用基于agent模型的元模型综述

J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. Pub Date : 2020-03-31 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4274

Bruno Walter Pietzsch, Sebastian Fiedler, K. Mertens, Markus Richter, Cédric Scherer, Kirana Widyastuti, M. Wimmler, Liubov Zakharova, U. Berger

{"title":"Metamodels for Evaluating, Calibrating and Applying Agent-Based Models: A Review","authors":"Bruno Walter Pietzsch, Sebastian Fiedler, K. Mertens, Markus Richter, Cédric Scherer, Kirana Widyastuti, M. Wimmler, Liubov Zakharova, U. Berger","doi":"10.18564/jasss.4274","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.4274","url":null,"abstract":": The recent advancement of agent-based modeling is characterized by higher demands on the parameterization, evaluation and documentation of these computationally expensive models. Accordingly, there is also a growing request for “easy to go” applications just mimicking the input-output behavior of such models. Metamodels are being increasingly used for these tasks. In this paper, we provide an overview of common metamodel types and the purposes of their usage in an agent-based modeling context. To guide modelers in the selection and application of metamodels for their own needs, we further assessed their implementation effort and performance. We performed a literature research in January 2019 using four different databases. Five different terms paraphrasing metamodels (approximation, emulator, meta-model, metamodel and surrogate) were used to capture the whole range of relevant literature in all disciplines. All metamodel applications found were then categorized into specific metamodel types and rated by different junior and senior researches from varying disciplines (including forest sciences, landscape ecology, or economics) regarding the implementation effort and performance. Specifically, we captured the metamodel performance according to (i) the consideration of uncertainties, (ii) the suitability assessment provided by the authors for the particular purpose, and (iii) the number of valuation criteria provided for suitability assessment. We selected 40 distinct metamodel applications from studies published in peer-reviewed journals from 2005 to 2019. These were used for the sensitivity analysis, calibration and upscaling of agent-based models, as well to mimic their prediction for different scenarios. This review provides information about the most applicable metamodel types for each purpose and forms a first guidance for the implementation and validation of metamodels for agent-based models.","PeriodicalId":14675,"journal":{"name":"J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul.","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86919666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 19

Do Farm Characteristics or Social Dynamics Explain the Conversion to Organic Farming by Dairy Farmers? An Agent-Based Model of Dairy Farming in 27 French Cantons 农场特征或社会动态解释了奶农转向有机农业吗?基于主体的法国27个州奶牛养殖模型

J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. Pub Date : 2020-03-31 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4204

Qing Xu, S. Huet, E. Perret, G. Deffuant

{"title":"Do Farm Characteristics or Social Dynamics Explain the Conversion to Organic Farming by Dairy Farmers? An Agent-Based Model of Dairy Farming in 27 French Cantons","authors":"Qing Xu, S. Huet, E. Perret, G. Deffuant","doi":"10.18564/jasss.4204","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.4204","url":null,"abstract":"The drivers of conversion to organic farming, which is still a residual choice in agriculture, are poorly understood. Many scholars argue that farm characteristics can determine this choice but do not exclude the role of social dynamics. To study this issue, we developed an agent-based model in which agents' decisions to shift to organic farming are based on a comparison between satisfaction with the current situation and potential satisfaction with an alternative farming strategy. A farmer agentâ€™s satisfaction is modelled using the Theory of Reasoned Action. This makes it necessary to compare an agent's productions over time with those of other agents to whom the former attributes considerable credibility (â€œimportant othersâ€ ). Moreover, farmers make technical changes that affect their productions by imitating other credible farmers. While we first used this model to examine simple and abstract farm populations, here we also adapted it for use with data from an Agricultural Census concerning the farm characteristics of dairy farming in 27 French â€œcantonsâ€ . Based on domain expertise, data and previous research, we propose certain laws for modelling the impact of conversion on the farm production of milk and the environment. The simulations with â€œrealâ€ populations of farms confirm the important impact of farm characteristics. However, our results also suggest a complex impact of social dynamics that can favour or impede the diffusion of organic farming through dynamic implicit networks of similarity and credibility. We confirm the great importance of demographic changes in farm characteristics.","PeriodicalId":14675,"journal":{"name":"J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul.","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78665081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

Computational Models That Matter During a Global Pandemic Outbreak: A Call to Action 在全球流行病爆发期间重要的计算模型:行动呼吁

J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. Pub Date : 2020-03-31 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4298

F. Squazzoni, J. Gareth Polhill, B. Edmonds, P. Ahrweiler, Patrycja Antosz, Geeske Scholz, É. Chappin, Melania Borit, H. Verhagen, F. Giardini, N. Gilbert

{"title":"Computational Models That Matter During a Global Pandemic Outbreak: A Call to Action","authors":"F. Squazzoni, J. Gareth Polhill, B. Edmonds, P. Ahrweiler, Patrycja Antosz, Geeske Scholz, É. Chappin, Melania Borit, H. Verhagen, F. Giardini, N. Gilbert","doi":"10.18564/jasss.4298","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.4298","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic is causing a dramatic loss of lives worldwide, challenging the sustainability of our health care systems, threatening economic meltdown, and putting pressure on the mental health of individuals (due to social distancing and lock-down measures). The pandemic is also posing severe challenges to the scientific community, with scholars under pressure to respond to policymakers’ demands for advice despite the absence of adequate, trusted data. Understanding the pandemic requires fine-grained data representing specific local conditions and the social reactions of individuals. While experts have built simulation models to estimate disease trajectories that may be enough to guide decision-makers to formulate policy measures to limit the epidemic, they do not cover the full behavioural and social complexity of societies under pandemic crisis. Modelling that has such a large potential impact upon people’s lives is a great responsibility. This paper calls on the scientific community to improve the transparency, access, and rigour of their models. It also calls on stakeholders to improve the rapidity with which data from trusted sources are released to the community (in a fully responsible manner). Responding to the pandemic is a stress test of our collaborative capacity and the social/economic value of research.","PeriodicalId":14675,"journal":{"name":"J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul.","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83438880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 94

Emergence of Small-World Networks in an Overlapping-Generations Model of Social Dynamics, Trust and Economic Performance 社会动态、信任和经济绩效的代际重叠模型中小世界网络的出现

J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. Pub Date : 2020-03-31 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4178

Katarzyna Growiec, J. Growiec, B. Kamiński

{"title":"Emergence of Small-World Networks in an Overlapping-Generations Model of Social Dynamics, Trust and Economic Performance","authors":"Katarzyna Growiec, J. Growiec, B. Kamiński","doi":"10.18564/jasss.4178","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.4178","url":null,"abstract":"We study the impact of endogenous creation and destruction of social ties in an artificial society on aggregate outcomes such as generalized trust, willingness to cooperate, social utility and economic performance. To this end we put forward a computational multi-agent model where agents of overlapping generations interact in adynamically evolving social network. In themodel, four distinct dimensionsof individuals’ social capital: degree, centrality, heterophilous and homophilous interactions, determine their generalized trust and willingness to cooperate, altogether helping them achieve certain levels of social utility (i.e., utility from social contacts) and economic performance. We find that the stationary state of the simulated social network exhibits realistic small-world topology. We also observe that societies whose social networks are relatively frequently reconfigured, display relativelyhighergeneralized trust,willingness tocooperate, andeconomicperformance— at the cost of lower social utility. Similar outcomes are found for societies where social tie dissolution is relatively weakly linked to family closeness.","PeriodicalId":14675,"journal":{"name":"J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul.","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73461106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0