A Simulation Model of the Radicalisation Process Based on the IVEE Theoretical Framework

Abstract

This paper presents a simulation model describing the radicalisation process. The radicalisation process is a complex human socio-environmental process which has been of much academic interest for the past two decades. Despite this it is still poorly understood and is an extremely difficult area for social scientists to research. It is a subject which suffers from a lack of available data, making the construction of an effective simulation model particularly challenging. In order to construct the simulation in this paper we rely on a theoretical framework which was originally developed as a means of synthesising the academic literature on radicalisation. This theoretical framework has three levels: individual vulnerability to radicalisation, exposure to radicalising moral contexts, and the emergence of radicalising settings. We adapt this framework into a simulation model by first re-constructing it as an individual-level state-transition model. Next, appropriate data is sought to parameterise the model. A parallel is drawn between the process of radicalisation and the process by which people develop the propensity to participate in more general acts of criminality; this analogy enables considerably more data to be used in parameterisation. The model is then calibrated by considering the logical differences between crime and terrorism which might lead to differences in the radicalisation and criminality development processes. The model is validated against stylised facts, demonstrating that despite being highly theoretical the simulation is capable of producing a realistic output. Possible uses of the model to evaluate the effectiveness of counter-radicalisation measures are also considered.