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Composite Forecasting: some empirical results using BAE short-term forecasts 综合预测:利用BAE短期预测的一些实证结果
Review of marketing and agricultural economics Pub Date : 1987-04-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.12314
L. Jolly, G. Wong
{"title":"Composite Forecasting: some empirical results using BAE short-term forecasts","authors":"L. Jolly, G. Wong","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.12314","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.12314","url":null,"abstract":"The contention advanced in this paper is that forecast performance could be improved if short-term commodity forecasters were to consider formally the use of a variety of forecasting methods, rather than seeking to improve one selected method. Many researchers have demonstrated that a linear combination of forecasts can produce a composite superior to the individual component forecasts. Using a case study of two Bureau of Agricultural Economics' forecast series and alternative, time series model forecasts of the same series, four methods of deriving composite forecasts are applied on an ex ante basis and are thus evaluated as a means of improving the Bureau's forecast performance. Despite the fact that the authors could not, by combining the available forecasts, form a superior composite forecast, the application highlights the suitability of this approach for reviewing the performance of forecasting methods on a formal basis, and did prove useful in exposing weaknesses and strengths in BAE market information forecasts which otherwise would not have come to light.","PeriodicalId":146173,"journal":{"name":"Review of marketing and agricultural economics","volume":"215 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1987-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132670903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Consequences of Deregulation in Victorian Egg Industry: a comment 维多利亚时代蛋业放松管制的后果:评论
Review of marketing and agricultural economics Pub Date : 1986-12-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.12587
R. Trewin, U. Bhati
{"title":"Consequences of Deregulation in Victorian Egg Industry: a comment","authors":"R. Trewin, U. Bhati","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.12587","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.12587","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":146173,"journal":{"name":"Review of marketing and agricultural economics","volume":"72 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1986-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126843189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Rural Employment and the Quality of Life 农村就业与生活质量
Review of marketing and agricultural economics Pub Date : 1983-12-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.12517
I. Hodge
{"title":"Rural Employment and the Quality of Life","authors":"I. Hodge","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.12517","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.12517","url":null,"abstract":"The nature of a person's employment, or lack of it, represents a critical factor influencing the quality of his life. The importance of employment arises not only from the income which work provides for an individual, but also from a variety of other attributes. This paper seeks to draw attention to the broader range of benefits which employment can generate and to consider their significance in the context of some areas of rural policy. After a brief discussion of the non-financial benefits of employment, it is argued that, if current trends continue, the relative importance of these benefits may be expected to increase. This would reduce the relevance of policy studies which ignore these issues and influence the appropriate organisation of some forms of economic activity. Part-time employment in the rural sector is highlighted as an area where these trends have already had important effects. The paper concludes with a consideration of the implications for adjustment policy and alternative lifestyles.","PeriodicalId":146173,"journal":{"name":"Review of marketing and agricultural economics","volume":"110 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1983-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127318342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Economic Growth, Comparative Advantage and Agricultural Trade of Pacific Rim Countries 环太平洋国家的经济增长、比较优势与农业贸易
Review of marketing and agricultural economics Pub Date : 1983-12-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.12518
K. Anderson
{"title":"Economic Growth, Comparative Advantage and Agricultural Trade of Pacific Rim Countries","authors":"K. Anderson","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.12518","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.12518","url":null,"abstract":"While agriculture's contribution to national output and employment tends to decline with economic growth, its contribution to exports need not. Neoclassical theory suggests that a country's comparative advantage in agriculture depends on its endowment of agricultural land relative to mineral resources and nonfarm capital, compared with endowment ratios in other countries. Over time, a country's agricultural comparative advantage will decline faster, the faster its mineral extraction, its growth in nonfarm capital per worker and its rates of nonfarm relative to farm technological change, again compared with other countries. Empirical support for this theory is provided by evidence from the diverse set of economies on the Pacific rim. The paper concludes with a discussion of likely future trends in comparative advantage and agricultural trade of Pacific rim countries, particularly Australia.","PeriodicalId":146173,"journal":{"name":"Review of marketing and agricultural economics","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1983-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121444931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 17
The Demand for Wine and Beer 葡萄酒和啤酒的需求
Review of marketing and agricultural economics Pub Date : 1983-08-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.12456
D. Tsolakis, P. Riethmuller, Geof Watts
{"title":"The Demand for Wine and Beer","authors":"D. Tsolakis, P. Riethmuller, Geof Watts","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.12456","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.12456","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper annual data series covering 1955-56 to 1978-79 are used to estimate the elasticity of demand for both wine and beer. These are first estimated using a flexible functional form. The habit formation hypothesis and the role of social and demographic factors are also examined. The demand for wine in aggregate is estimated to be relatively price inelastic in the short run, while in the long run it is relatively price elastic. With respect to income, the demand for wine is shown to be relatively highly elastic. For beer, demand with respect to price and income is found to be relatively inelastic in the short run as well as in the long run. These results can be used to evaluate the impact of changes in patterns of consumption and of government taxation policies on the industry.","PeriodicalId":146173,"journal":{"name":"Review of marketing and agricultural economics","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1983-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132556579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 15
Applications of Dynamic Programming to Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries: Review and Prognosis 动态规划在农林渔业中的应用:综述与展望
Review of marketing and agricultural economics Pub Date : 1981-12-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.12234
J. Kennedy
{"title":"Applications of Dynamic Programming to Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries: Review and Prognosis","authors":"J. Kennedy","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.12234","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.12234","url":null,"abstract":"Farmers are faced with many decision problems in crop and livestock production which are multistage and stochastic. There have been many applications of dynamic programming (DP) to such decision problems, many primarily for illustrative purposes. It is argued that the advent of farmer access to computers will lead to on-farm use of DP. Applications of DP to forestry, fisheries and agricultural policy are also reviewed. The scope and limitations of DP are discussed, and the close relationship between DP and control theory is examined.","PeriodicalId":146173,"journal":{"name":"Review of marketing and agricultural economics","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1981-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129984859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 51
An Alternative Method for Deriving Optimal Fertilizer Rates 一种求得最优施肥率的替代方法
Review of marketing and agricultural economics Pub Date : 1980-08-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.9343
D. Godden, K. Helyar
{"title":"An Alternative Method for Deriving Optimal Fertilizer Rates","authors":"D. Godden, K. Helyar","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.9343","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.9343","url":null,"abstract":"A model of fertilizer response is outlined which makes a distinction between conventional fertilizer response curves, and the relationship between product yield and maintenance application of fertilizer. The derivation of optimal fertilizer rates for two enterprises on three soil types is used to illustrate the model. A simple rule-of-thumb, which can be used to avoid some computations, is also discussed. In the Australian context, the model has implications for the derivation of optimal super-phosphate rates, and also has important implications for the type of applied super-phosphate research which should be conducted in the future.","PeriodicalId":146173,"journal":{"name":"Review of marketing and agricultural economics","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1980-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115118089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 28
The Demand for Hired Labour on Australian Sheep Farms 澳大利亚养羊场对雇工的需求
Review of marketing and agricultural economics Pub Date : 1980-08-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.9339
U. Bhati
{"title":"The Demand for Hired Labour on Australian Sheep Farms","authors":"U. Bhati","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.9339","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.9339","url":null,"abstract":"The motivation for this study was provided by the interest currently being expressed in the effects of rising wage rates and other factors on the employment levels in various industries in Australia. An attempt is made to examine a number of key factors affecting the demand for labour in a major subsector of Australian agriculture. Using the average farm-firm approach, a time-series econometric model of the demand for hired labour for Australian sheep farms is developed and estimated. Major findings on the determinants of labour demand are discussed, together with their policy implications.","PeriodicalId":146173,"journal":{"name":"Review of marketing and agricultural economics","volume":"114 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1980-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134036814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Activity Analysis: Bridging the Gap between Production Economics Theory and Practical Farm Management Procedures 活动分析:弥合生产经济学理论与实际农场管理程序之间的差距
Review of marketing and agricultural economics Pub Date : 1980-04-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.37183
J. Longworth, K. Menz
{"title":"Activity Analysis: Bridging the Gap between Production Economics Theory and Practical Farm Management Procedures","authors":"J. Longworth, K. Menz","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.37183","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.37183","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is addressed to the traditional problem of demonstrating the relevance of production theory to management-oriented people. Activity analysis, it is argued, is the most appropriate pedagogic framework within which to commence either a production economics or a farm management course. Production economics theory has not been widely accepted as a useful method for the analysis of practical management problems. The theory has been traditionally presented in terms of continuous functions which assume away the question of technical efficiency. Activity analysis, in its general form, is a more comprehensive approach to the theory of production than the conventional neo-classical production function approach since activity analysis explicitly incorporates technical efficiency considerations. The failure of general agricultural economists to demonstrate appropriately the relevance of production theory has encouraged a sub-discipline of farm management dedicated to real-world management problems in agriculture. The basic procedures developed by the farm management sub-discipline (virtually independent of production theory) and now in common use, have a strong affinity with activity analysis. The traditional gap between production theory and applied farm management can, therefore, be bridged by approaching the theory from the activity analysis viewpoint.","PeriodicalId":146173,"journal":{"name":"Review of marketing and agricultural economics","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1980-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125170023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Impacts of Climatic Variability in Australian Agriculture: A Review 气候变化对澳大利亚农业的影响:综述
Review of marketing and agricultural economics Pub Date : 1979-12-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.12372
Jock R. Anderson
{"title":"Impacts of Climatic Variability in Australian Agriculture: A Review","authors":"Jock R. Anderson","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.12372","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.12372","url":null,"abstract":"A framework is sketched for exploring the pervasive impacts of variations in climate on the uncertainties and instabilities of the Australian rural sector. Low rainfall is identified as the dominating climatic variable. Effects of climatic variation are investigated and measured at farm, regional, industrial, sectoral and national levels. Where possible, sensitivities to climate are measured by elasticities of production with respect to rainfall indexes. Some consequences of possible climatic change are discussed.","PeriodicalId":146173,"journal":{"name":"Review of marketing and agricultural economics","volume":"201 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1979-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124294153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 43
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