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A Bayesian ranking and selection problem with pairwise comparisons 具有两两比较的贝叶斯排序和选择问题
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8247947
L. Priekule, Stephan Meisel
{"title":"A Bayesian ranking and selection problem with pairwise comparisons","authors":"L. Priekule, Stephan Meisel","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8247947","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8247947","url":null,"abstract":"We consider a ranking and selection problem where sampling of two alternatives at once is required for learning about the true performances of the individual alternatives. The true performance of an alternative is defined as its average probability of outperforming the other alternatives. We derive and numerically compare four different solution approaches. Two Knowledge Gradient sampling policies are compared with a pure exploration policy and with a knockout tournament. The knockout tournament serves as a natural benchmarking approach with respect to pairwise comparisons, and determines the sampling budget provided to the other approaches. Our numerical results show that the Knowledge Gradient policies outperform both knockout tournament and pure exploration, and that they lead to significant improvements already at a very small number of pairwise comparisons. In particular we find that a nonstationary Knowledge Gradient policy is the best of the considered approaches for ranking and selection with pairwise comparisons.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"IA-21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126560798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Combining bootstrap-based stroke incidence models with discrete event modeling of travel-time and stroke treatment: Non-normal input and non-linear output 结合基于自举的卒中发生率模型与旅行时间和卒中治疗的离散事件建模:非正态输入和非线性输出
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8247906
K. Rand-Hendriksen, Joe Viana, F. A. Dahl
{"title":"Combining bootstrap-based stroke incidence models with discrete event modeling of travel-time and stroke treatment: Non-normal input and non-linear output","authors":"K. Rand-Hendriksen, Joe Viana, F. A. Dahl","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8247906","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8247906","url":null,"abstract":"Incidence rates in simulation models are often assumed to stem from Poisson processes, with rates based on analyses of real-life data. In cases where the record of data is limited, or observed rates are low, the stochastic process involved in sampling from modeled distributions may not adequately reflect the uncertainty around the estimated input parameters. We present a conceptually simple, but computationally demanding, method for generating variance in incidence through the use of bootstrapping; for each subsample, a regression model is fitted, and the simulation model is run repeatedly sampling from the fitted model. Stochasticity is introduced at two levels; data for fitting the regression, and sampling from the fitted model. We illustrate this hybrid approach using Norwegian stroke records to generate stroke incidences with age, sex, and location, in a simulation model made to analyze travel time, queuing, and time to treatment in regional stroke units.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"147 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114092394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Human activity recognition and mobile sensing for construction simulation 建筑模拟人类活动识别与移动传感
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8247974
Nipun D. Nath, P. Shrestha, A. Behzadan
{"title":"Human activity recognition and mobile sensing for construction simulation","authors":"Nipun D. Nath, P. Shrestha, A. Behzadan","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8247974","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8247974","url":null,"abstract":"Construction industry has been constantly lagging behind in terms of efficiency and productivity growth. Simulation modeling can be used to improve the productivity of construction workflow processes through modeling uncertainties and stochastic events that may negatively impact project cost and schedule. In the research presented in this paper, mobile sensors coupled with machine learning techniques are used for ubiquitous data collection and human activity recognition (HAR), which will constitute the key input parameters of process simulation modeling. To assess the designed methodology, an experiment is carried out which replicates a warehouse quality control operation. Smartphones mounted on human bodies are used to collect multi-modal time-motion data. Support vector machine (SVM) is then applied to classify workers' and inspectors' activities, and activity durations are subsequently extracted. Finally, a simulation model is built using the output of the HAR phase and rigorously validated and used to analyze workflow processes, productivity, and bottlenecks.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"85 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121260105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Parallel discrete event simulation: The making of a field 平行离散事件模拟:场的形成
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8247793
R. Fujimoto, R. Bagrodia, R. Bryant, K. Chandy, D. Jefferson, J. Misra, D. Nicol, B. Unger
{"title":"Parallel discrete event simulation: The making of a field","authors":"R. Fujimoto, R. Bagrodia, R. Bryant, K. Chandy, D. Jefferson, J. Misra, D. Nicol, B. Unger","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8247793","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8247793","url":null,"abstract":"Originating in the 1970's, the parallel discrete event simulation (PDES) field grew from a group of researchers focused on determining how to execute a discrete event simulation program on a parallel computer while still obtaining the same results as a sequential execution. Over the decades that followed the field expanded, grew, and flourishes to this day. This paper describes the origins and development of the field in the words of many who were deeply involved. Unlike other published work focusing on technical issues, the emphasis here is on historical aspects that are not recorded elsewhere, providing a unique characterization of how the field was created and developed.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125000806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 24
Finite variance unbiased estimation of stochastic differential equations 随机微分方程的有限方差无偏估计
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8247930
Ankush Agarwal, E. Gobet
{"title":"Finite variance unbiased estimation of stochastic differential equations","authors":"Ankush Agarwal, E. Gobet","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8247930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8247930","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a new unbiased estimation method for Lipschitz continuous functions of multi-dimensional stochastic differential equations with Lipschitz continuous coefficients. This method provides a finite variance estimator based on a probabilistic representation which is similar to the recent representations obtained through the parametrix method and recursive application of the automatic differentiation formula. Our approach relies on appropriate change of variables to carefully handle the singular integrands appearing in the iterated integrals of the probabilistic representation. It results in a scheme with randomized intermediate times where the number of intermediate times has a Pareto distribution.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116561449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
An approach for DEVS based modeling of electrical power systems 基于DEVS的电力系统建模方法
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8247848
A. Toba, M. Seck, Matthew Amissah, Sarah Bouazzaoui
{"title":"An approach for DEVS based modeling of electrical power systems","authors":"A. Toba, M. Seck, Matthew Amissah, Sarah Bouazzaoui","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8247848","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8247848","url":null,"abstract":"The size and complexity of modern power systems, as well as emergent technologies and the uncertainty in energy planning, make the design and engineering of these systems challenging. One of the main challenges is the development of models that adequately capture the complex relationships between the components of these systems. We present a DEVS (Discrete Event System Specification) based framework for modeling a power system for energy planning. DEVS preserves the hierarchical and modular construction properties of a system (Chow and Zeigler 1994). That is, it enables each of the components of the system to be modeled separately, as well as the representation of the multilayer architecture of that system. As a proof of concept, we present a power system model, simulating the deployment of energy sources, on the PyPDEVS platform (Van Tendeloo and Vangheluwe 2015), considering dispatcher, unit commitment, load, generation, storage and transmission lines components.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"145 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122696231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
The effects of teams' initial characterizations of interactions on product development performance 团队对相互作用的初始描述对产品开发绩效的影响
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8247882
M. J. Songhori, M. Jalali, T. Terano
{"title":"The effects of teams' initial characterizations of interactions on product development performance","authors":"M. J. Songhori, M. Jalali, T. Terano","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8247882","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8247882","url":null,"abstract":"Coordinated search processes are pervasive in both organizations and product development projects. In such processes, designers with different specialties learn about their interdependent alternatives through a mutual adjustment process. In the context of a product development with several teams developing the new product's subsystems, and using reinforcement learning and agent-based simulation modeling, this study looks at the performance effects of design teams' initial mental characterizations about subsystem interactions. The focus is on two initial mental models, one in which teams over-weight their own subsystem's element interactions, and another, in which teams over-weighting interactions between subsystems. The results indicate that both initial representations have critical performance consequences for product development. Specifically, teams prioritizing their interactions of their own subsystem's elements gain short-run performance benefits as they converge to a local optimum in a short time period. Contrarily, over-weighting between-subsystem interactions leads to a tendency for teams to have long-run performance advantages.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122796478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Striving for ubiquity of simulation in operations through educational enhancements 通过加强教育，努力使模拟在作战中无处不在
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8248131
A. Greenwood
{"title":"Striving for ubiquity of simulation in operations through educational enhancements","authors":"A. Greenwood","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8248131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8248131","url":null,"abstract":"The 50th anniversary of WSC provides a good opportunity to reflect on how widely simulation is used in the business world to support problem solving and decision making. This paper posits that, despite the success of the WSC, simulation is not as widely used as it should be and that a major cause is a general lack of understanding of the value of simulation outside of the simulation-specialist community. However, this paper suggests that one way to increase the use of simulation is through changes in education. As part of the review and development of suggested changes, the paper examines the activities related to education at the WSC. It then offers a variety of suggestions for how the simulation education community — including academics, practitioners, and vendors — can help to address this issue.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122799639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
An actor-model based bottom-up simulation — An experiment on Indian demonetisation initiative 基于行动者模型的自下而上模拟——印度废钞倡议的实验
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8247838
Souvik Barat, V. Kulkarni, T. Clark, B. Barn
{"title":"An actor-model based bottom-up simulation — An experiment on Indian demonetisation initiative","authors":"Souvik Barat, V. Kulkarni, T. Clark, B. Barn","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8247838","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8247838","url":null,"abstract":"The dominance of cash-based transactions and relentless growth of a shadow economy triggered a fiscal intervention by the Indian government wherein 86% of the total cash in circulation was pulled out in a sudden announcement on November 8, 2016. This disruptive initiative resulted into prolonged cash shortages, financial inconvenience, and crisis situation to cross-section of population of the country. Overall, the initiative has faced a lot of criticism as being poorly thought through and inadequately planned. We claim that these emerging adverse conditions could have been anticipated well in advance with appropriate experimental setup. We further claim that the efficacy of possible courses of actions for managing critical situations, and probable consequences of the courses of action could have been estimated in a laboratory setting. This paper justifies our claims with an experimental setup relying on what-if analysis using an actor-based bottom up simulation approach.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"136 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122907546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
Modeling and simulating households and firms location choice using agent-based models: Application to the urban area of Bordeaux 基于主体模型的家庭和企业区位选择建模与模拟:在波尔多市区的应用
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8247860
Youssef Bouanan, S. Zerguini, N. Gaussier
{"title":"Modeling and simulating households and firms location choice using agent-based models: Application to the urban area of Bordeaux","authors":"Youssef Bouanan, S. Zerguini, N. Gaussier","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8247860","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8247860","url":null,"abstract":"This article aims to respond to growing concerns about sustainable urbanization, which in recent years have generated a need for prospective assessment in the field of transport and land-use planning, by predicting future land-use development. We introduce a Land Use model (part LU of a Land Use Transport Interaction model) which aims to simulate households and firms location choice within an urban system. We use the agent-based approach to simulate location choices in order to account for land use changes and to estimate residential and economic activities location. This is a dynamic bottom-up approach with the households and the firms as their basic components. The MUST-B model considers the agents' location choices according to the utility theory and the equilibrium between real estate supply and demand. The model is used to simulate urban land-use development in the urban area of Bordeaux, France.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131209875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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