Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal最新文献

{"title":"Financial Stability Assessment for EU Candidate Countries and Potential Candidates","authors":"Mariarosaria Comunale, André Geis, Ioannis Gkrintzalis, Isabella Moder, É. Polgár, Li Savelin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3454510","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3454510","url":null,"abstract":"This paper reviews and assesses financial stability challenges in countries preparing for EU membership, i.e. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey. The paper mainly focuses on the period since 2016 (unless the analysis requires a longer time span) and on the banking sectors that dominate financial systems in this group of countries. For the Western Balkans, the paper analyses recent trends in financial intermediation, as well as the two main challenges that have been identified in the past. Asset quality continues to improve, but the share of non-performing loans is still high in some countries, while regulatory, legal and tax impediments are still to be resolved in most cases. High unofficial euroisation is a source of indirect credit risk for countries with their own national legal tender, which calls for continued efforts to promote the use of domestic currencies in the financial system. At the same time, banking systems seem less prone to financial stress from maturity mismatches than certain EU peers. These risks are met with a solid shock-absorbing capacity in the Western Balkans, as exemplified by robust capital and liquidity buffers. Turkey experienced a period of heightened financial stress during 2018 and, while its banking system appears to have sufficient buffers to absorb shocks overall, significant forex borrowing of corporates and high rollover needs of banks in foreign exchange on the wholesale market constitute considerable financial stability risks. JEL Classification: F31, F34, F36, G15, G21, G28","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"184 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132556299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Lifting the Veil in Interest","authors":"I. Ábel, Máté Lóga, G. Nagy, A. Vadkerti","doi":"10.33893/fer.18.3.2951","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.33893/fer.18.3.2951","url":null,"abstract":"The central bank practice which emerged in the period following the financial crisis called into question numerous elements of interest rate considerations. In this paper we present a new theoretical framework that dispenses with the concept of real interest altogether, as a vague and unnecessary category both in policy judgements and business decisions. This approach breaks with the traditional theory of economics. Traditional macroeconomics places its argumentation in the context of real analysis, which hinders the understanding of economic processes. Schumpeter and subsequently, Keynes took a stand against this approach and, rebuffing the real approach, turned to monetary analysis as early as a century ago. In the framework of the classical theory of economics, they describe monetary policy as an adjustment to the natural rate of interest. In this article we propose a different approach. Describing the role of fiat money, the endogenous money theory puts the lending activity of commercial banks into the focus of money creation. This concept also put central bank monetary policy in a new framework. According to this approach, central banks assume an exclusive role in determining the interest rates, but the central significance of the interest rate policy weakens. Once we recognise the crucial role of commercial banks in money creation, the role and function of the central bank changes. The central bank no longer controls money creation solely by shaping the interest rate policy, but also by way of the micro and macroprudential regulation of lending.","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122013102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Introducing ECB-Base: The Blueprint of the New ECB Semi-Structural Model for the Euro Area","authors":"E. Angelini, N. Bokan, K. Christoffel, Matteo Ciccarelli, Srečko Zimic","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3454511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3454511","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents the blueprint of a new ECB multi-country model. The version documented in the following pages is estimated on euro area data. As a prelude to the country models, this version is meant to enhance the understanding of the main model mechanisms, enlarge the suite of area wide tools, and provide a tool for a top down approach between euro area and country modelling. The model converges to a well-defined steady state and its properties are in line with macroeconomic theory and standard empirical benchmarks. The design is aligned to its role as workhorse model in the context of the forecasting and policy simulation exercises at the ECB.","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126951749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Policy Uncertainty and Bank Mortgage Credit","authors":"G. Kara, Youngsuk Yook","doi":"10.17016/FEDS.2019.066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2019.066","url":null,"abstract":"We document that banks reduce supply of jumbo mortgage loans when policy uncertainty increases as measured by the timing of US gubernatorial elections in banks' headquarter states. The reduction is larger for more uncertain elections. We utilize high-frequency, geographically granular loan data to address an identification problem arising from changing demand for loans: (1) the microeconomic data allow for state/time (quarter) fixed effects; (2) we observe banks reduce lending not just in their home states but also outside their home states when their home states hold elections; (3) we observe important cross-sectional differences in the way banks with different characteristics respond to policy uncertainty. Overall, the findings suggest that policy uncertainty has a real effect on residential housing markets through banks' credit supply decisions and that it can spill over across states through lending by banks serving multiple states.","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"5 1-2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129779756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Do Private Digital Currencies Affect Government Policy?","authors":"Max Raskin, Fahad Saleh, D. Yermack","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3437529","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3437529","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a systematic evaluation of the different types of digital currencies. We express skepticism regarding centralized digital currencies and therefore focus our economic analysis on private digital currencies. Specifically, we highlight the potential for private digital currencies to improve welfare within an emerging market with a selfish government. In that setting, we demonstrate that a private digital currency not only improves citizen welfare but also encourages local investment and enhances government welfare.","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115857450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Reader's Guide to Optimal Monetary Policy","authors":"Anthony M. Diercks","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2989237","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2989237","url":null,"abstract":"This document serves as an update with discussion of the accompanying new interactive visualization and table tool. Recently, multiple economists have banded together to suggest to the Federal Reserve that the inflation target needs to be changed. The inflation target is the core through which monetary policy makers rationalize their decisions while following the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Understanding the rationale for its level, 2%, and understanding the academic literature related to optimal inflation dynamics seems more important than ever before. This survey takes into account every optimal monetary policy paper made available to the public since the mid-1990s and provides a careful discussion on the most important costs and benefits of inflation.","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125149286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Equity Premium, Long-Run Risks to R-Star, and Asymmetric Optimal Monetary Policy","authors":"Anthony M. Diercks","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3435372","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3435372","url":null,"abstract":"With the Federal Reserve undergoing a serious review of its strategy, this paper provides a timely analysis that focuses on longer-run themes and monetary policy's potential influence. If we take the stance that asset prices indicate a high cost of exposure to long-run risks, this has very interesting implications for monetary policy that ripple through a surprisingly broad set of dimensions. There is an intuitive result that a Ramsey planner might wish to attenuate long-run risks (a key contributor to shifts in r-star). Less intuitively, I show that a Ramsey policymaker will induce a tolerance for skewness and a higher average inflation rate than is typically advocated in the literature. A variety of factors contribute to these results. First, deep non-linearities in the model entail that the policymaker behaves asymmetrically in its countercyclical policies. Second, the presence of capital generates longer-run effects (hysteresis) and additional tradeoffs, which implies that \"countercyclical\" in this model takes on a lower frequency theme. And third, imperfect competition leads to the pursuit of a higher average inflation rate to offset the related welfare costs.","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"139 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121543288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Signalling Channel of Negative Interest Rates","authors":"Oliver de Groot, A. Haas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3453173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3453173","url":null,"abstract":"Negative interest rates are a new (and controversial) monetary policy tool. This paper studies a novel signalling channel and asks whether negative rates can be 1) an effective and 2) an optimal policy tool. 1) We build a financial-friction new-Keynesian model in which monetary policy can set a negative reserve rate, but deposit rates are constrained by zero. All else equal, a negative rate contracts bank net worth and increases credit spreads (the costly \"interest margin\" channel). However, it also signals lower future deposit rates, even with current deposit rates constrained, boosting aggregate demand and net worth. Quantitatively, we find the signalling channel dominates, but the effectiveness of negative rates depends crucially on three factors: i) degree of policy inertia, ii) level of reserves, iii) zero lower bound duration. 2) In a simplified model we prove two necessary conditions for the optimality of negative rates: i) time-consistent policy setting, ii) preference for policy smoothing.","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116965674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transparencia en la regulación financiera: una propuesta de medición (Transparency in Financial Regulation: A Quantification Proposal)","authors":"Cecilia Dassatti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3443517","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3443517","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Spanish Abstract:</b> En los últimos años la discusión acerca del diseño institucional de las agencias reguladoras del sector financiero se ha ido centrando en aspectos de gobierno corporativo. Asimismo, la independencia en la conducción de la política monetaria y el hecho de que las tareas de regulación y supervisión financiera en muchas ocasiones están dentro de la órbita de los bancos centrales, han conducido a la incorporación de prácticas de transparencia en la conducción de la política financiera. Si bien existen diversos esfuerzos para medir la independencia de los bancos centrales, los intentos de cuantificación de la transparencia en la conducción de la política financiera son escasos o principalmente centrados en el proceso de supervisión. El presente documento propone diseñar un índice de transparencia en materia de regulación financiera y aplicarlo a Uruguay, con el fin de, más adelante, compararlo con otros países. De acuerdo al índice propuesto, Uruguay obtiene un puntaje de 17.75 sobre 20, destacándose en particular los valores obtenidos en las dimensiones de transparencia de procesos y de políticas.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> In recent years, the discussion about the institutional design of regulatory agencies in the financial sector has focused on aspects of corporate governance. Likewise, the independence in the conduct of monetary policy and the fact that the tasks of financial regulation and supervision are often within the orbit of the central banks, have led to the incorporation of transparency practices in the conduct of the financial policy While there are several efforts to measure the independence of central banks, attempts to quantify transparency in the conduct of financial policy are scarce or mainly focused on the supervisory process. This document proposes the design of an index of transparency in financial regulation and its application to Uruguay, in order to compare it with other countries. According to the proposed index, Uruguay obtains a score of 17.75 out of 20, highlighting in particular the values obtained in the dimensions of transparency of processes and policies.","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124209575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing Reliability of Aggregated Inflation Views in the European Commission Consumer Survey","authors":"E. Stanisławska, Maritta Paloviita, Tomasz Łyziak","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3415820","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3415820","url":null,"abstract":"Using a novel approach based on micro-level survey responses, we assess the reliability of aggregated inflation expectations estimates in the European Commission Consumer Survey. We identify the share of consumers, whose qualitative and quantitative views on expected increase of prices do not match each other. Then we consider the impact of inconsistent survey responses on balance statistics and mean values of quantitative inflation expectations. We also analyze expectations’ formation estimating the sticky-information models. The results, based on Finnish and Polish data, suggest that even if the fraction of inconsistent survey responses is non-negligible, it matters neither for the aggregated figures of inflation views, nor for understanding of the formation of inflation expectations by consumers. We conclude that micro-level inconsistencies do not reduce the reliability of the current EC Consumer Survey dataset. Our results also indicate that inconsistent responses are not important drivers of the inflation overestimation bias displayed in the data.","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128351396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}