Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal最新文献

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Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes With Multiple Currency Practices 多元货币实践下的货币政策选择机制
Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal Pub Date : 2020-03-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3563248
Hamed Ghiaie, H. Tavakolian, H. Tabarraei
{"title":"Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes With Multiple Currency Practices","authors":"Hamed Ghiaie, H. Tavakolian, H. Tabarraei","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3563248","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3563248","url":null,"abstract":"We assess how non-orthodox monetary policy of an economy with multiple currency practices impacts growth and development. The central bank employs two monetary instruments: \u0000 \u0000i) adjustment of the official exchange rate and \u0000 \u0000ii) adjustment of nominal monetary base growth to stabilize the economy through minimizing the inflation and output gaps. \u0000 \u0000A third instrument, intervention in the foreign exchange market, is used to control the exchange rate gap. The main message of this paper is that with a persistent external shock, the MPCs are effective at best in the short-run; while it hurts long-term growth. To reduce the adverse impacts on development, we suggest using the producer price index (PPI) in the monetary instruments instead of the consumer price index (CPI). We find that the PPI results in lower welfare losses. We then show that even under a unified exchange rate regime, the PPI targeting considerably performs better. Finally, we indicate that monetary instruments are more effective in the presence of a fiscal rule.","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"16 11","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131776829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Secular Decline in Long-Term Yields around FOMC Meetings FOMC会议前后长期收益率的长期下跌
Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal Pub Date : 2020-03-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3550593
Sebastian Hillenbrand
{"title":"The Secular Decline in Long-Term Yields around FOMC Meetings","authors":"Sebastian Hillenbrand","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3550593","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3550593","url":null,"abstract":"Long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell by almost 8% between 1980 and 2017. I document that the entire decline in long-term interest rates was realized in a 3-day window around FOMC meetings. I find a similar pattern for U.S. equities: the same 3-day window can account for the entire decline in equity yields over the same time period. Decomposing the decline into an expected short-rate and a risk premium component, I find that the fall in long-term yields around FOMC meetings can be mostly attributed to a lower expected path for the future short rate. I argue that these results are surprising in light of theories on monetary policy and the secular decline in interest rates.","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133387389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Una introducción al debate actual sobre la moneda digital de banco central (CBDC) (An Introduction to the Current Debate on Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)) 中央银行数字货币(CBDC)当前辩论简介
Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal Pub Date : 2020-03-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3617558
J. Ayuso, C. Conesa
{"title":"Una introducción al debate actual sobre la moneda digital de banco central (CBDC) (An Introduction to the Current Debate on Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC))","authors":"J. Ayuso, C. Conesa","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3617558","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3617558","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Spanish Abstract:</b> Este documento ofrece una visión general sobre el significado de una central bank digital currency (CBDC) que pueda servir de base para una discusión ordenada que permita profundizar en los diferentes aspectos relevantes del debate actualmente abierto sobre este activo financiero digital. El objetivo fundamental es revisar las motivaciones que pueden justificar la emisión de CBDC y llevar a cabo un análisis preliminar de sus principales implicaciones, especialmente de las vinculadas a los modelos de CBDC que parecen más probables, a tenor de las motivaciones de los bancos centrales que, en estos momentos, han avanzado más seriamente hacia su emisión.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> This paper provides an overview of the concept of central bank digital currency (CBDC) that may serve as a basis for an ordered discussion and an in-depth analysis of the different relevant aspects in the ongoing debate about this digital financial asset. The primary objective is to review the grounds that could warrant issuing CBDC and undertake a preliminary analysis of its main implications, especially those linked to the CBDC models that seem most likely to be adopted, judging by the motivations of the central banks whose issuance plans are currently most advanced.<br><br><b>Note:</b> Downloadable document is in Spanish.","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134198361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 20
Strengthening Reserves of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT): An Examination for Transferring Treasury’s Share in Profit to Reserves and Increasing Treasury’s Share in CBRT 土耳其共和国中央银行(CBRT)加强储备:财政部利润份额向储备转移和增加财政部在CBRT中的份额的考察
Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal Pub Date : 2020-03-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3551946
M. Kartal
{"title":"Strengthening Reserves of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT): An Examination for Transferring Treasury’s Share in Profit to Reserves and Increasing Treasury’s Share in CBRT","authors":"M. Kartal","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3551946","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3551946","url":null,"abstract":"Bu calisma, TCMB rezervlerinin guclendirilmesine yonelik hazirlanmistir. Bu amaca yonelik olarak, kardaki Hazine payinin rezervlere aktarilmasi ve TCMB’deki Hazine’ye ait ortaklik payinin artirilmasindan olusan bir oneri seti gelistirilmistir. Soz konusu onerilerin etkileri TCMB’nin elektronik veri dagitim sisteminden ve web sitesinden alinan 2000-2018 donemine iliskin veriler kullanilarak analiz edilmistir. Analiz sonuclarina gore, ilk onerinin uygulanmasi ile birlikte soz konusu donemde 29,7 milyar ABD Dolari rezerv birikimi saglanabilirdi. 2019 Mart sonu itibariyle TCMB net rezervlerinin 30,2 milyar ABD Dolari oldugu dikkate alindiginda, gelistirilen onerinin ne kadar etkili oldugu gorulmektedir. Birinci oneriye ek olarak mevcut durumda %55 olan TCMB’deki Hazine ortaklik payinin artirilmasi seklindeki ikinci onerinin uygulanmasiyla daha hizli rezerv birikimi saglanabilecektir. Bu onerinin uygulanmasiyla birlikte 2000-2018 donemi icin biriktirilebilecek rezerv tutari 45,8 milyar ABD Dolari olarak hesaplanmaktadir. Gunumuzde TCMB rezervleri onemli miktarda dusus gosterirken, bu calismada sunulan onerilerin uygulanmasi TCMB rezervlerinin artirilmasina onemli miktarda katki saglayacaktir.","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"875 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129611274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Benefits Are at the Tail: Uncovering the Impact of Macroprudential Policy on Growth-At-Risk 好处在尾部:揭示宏观审慎政策对风险增长的影响
Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal Pub Date : 2020-03-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3548475
Jorge E. Galán
{"title":"The Benefits Are at the Tail: Uncovering the Impact of Macroprudential Policy on Growth-At-Risk","authors":"Jorge E. Galán","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3548475","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3548475","url":null,"abstract":"This paper brings together recent developments on the growth-at-risk methodology and the literature on the impact of macroprudential policy. For this purpose, I extend the recent proposals on the use of quantile regressions of GDP growth by including macrofinancial variables with early warning properties of systemic risk, and macroprudential measures. I identify heterogeneous effects of macroprudential policy on GDP growth, uncovering important benefits on the left tail of its distribution. The positive effect of macroprudential policy on reducing the downside risk of GDP is found to be larger than the negative impact on the median, suggesting a net positive effect in the mid-term. Nonetheless, I identify heterogeneous effects depending on the position in the financial cycle, the direction of the policy, the type of instrument, and the time elapsed since its implementation. In particular, tightening capital measures during expansions may take up to two years in evidencing benefits on growth-at-risk, while the positive impact of borrower-based measures is rapidly observed. This suggests the need of implementing capital measures, such as the countercyclical capital buffer, early enough in the cycle; while borrower-based measures can be tightened in more advanced stages. Conversely, in downturns the benefits of loosening capital measures are immediate, while those of borrower-based measures are limited. Overall, this study provides a useful framework to assess costs and benefits of macroprudential policy in terms of GDP growth, and to identify the term-structure of specific types of instruments.","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"125 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115774992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 93
Financial Policy in an Exuberant World 繁荣世界中的金融政策
Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3557874
A. Walther
{"title":"Financial Policy in an Exuberant World","authors":"A. Walther","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3557874","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3557874","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies optimal financial policy in a world where the financial sector can become excessively optimistic. I decompose the welfare effects of bank capital regulation to demonstrate the effects of exuberance and its interaction with incentive problems in banking. The optimal policy depends not only on the extent, but also on the type of optimism. For example, it is markedly different when the exuberance of banks focuses on neglected downside risk, as opposed to overstated upside opportunities. A central normative conclusion is that “leaning against the wind”, by tightening capital requirements in exuberant times, can be counterproductive. I show that two natural metrics, describing the distortion in perceived upside and downside risk, are sufficient statistics for the policy implications of exuberance. My results shed light on the diverse empirical evidence on the relationship between bank capital and risk-taking. Finally, I investigate the sensitivity of these insights under different assumptions about government rationality and paternalism. JEL Classification: G01, G21, G40","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124965062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Stablecoins: A Brave New World? 稳定币:美丽新世界?
Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3549872
A. Melachrinos, C. Pfister
{"title":"Stablecoins: A Brave New World?","authors":"A. Melachrinos, C. Pfister","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3549872","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3549872","url":null,"abstract":"At the root of the notion of stablecoin (SC) lies a desire to reconcile two different worlds: that of legal currency, whose essential attributes are hierarchical order, the vocation to uniqueness and stability of the purchasing power, and that of crypto-assets, featuring decentralization, multiplicity and thus the possibility of choice, and the instability of value. Do SCs fulfill their promises? With regard to their volatile prices, limited number, small total amount, and concentrated market, SCs have so far met with a mixed success. They rather represent a complement to the crypto-assets market. However, the arrival of very large issuers, securing a higher degree of confidence to users, and apt to reach a wide public, could give their projects a potentially systemic impact. These global SCs would create risks, in particular for financial stability and monetary policy, and in lesser-developed economies. This paper reviews these risks and the way the private sector, regulators and central banks can address them.","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126601568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
A Program for Strengthening the Federal Reserve’s Ability to Fight the Next Recession 加强美联储对抗下一次经济衰退能力的计划
Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3577984
D. Reifschneider, David W. Wilcox
{"title":"A Program for Strengthening the Federal Reserve’s Ability to Fight the Next Recession","authors":"D. Reifschneider, David W. Wilcox","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3577984","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3577984","url":null,"abstract":"If the Federal Reserve does not decisively change the way it conducts monetary policy, it will probably not be capable of fighting recessions in the future as effectively as it fought them in the past. This reality helped motivate the Fed to undertake the policy framework review in which it is currently engaged. Researchers have suggested many steps the Fed could take to improve its recession-fighting ability; however, no consensus has emerged as to which of these steps would be both practical and maximally effective. This paper aims to fill that gap. It recommends that the Fed commit as soon as possible to a new approach for fighting recessions, involving two key elements. First, the Fed should commit that whenever it runs out of room to cut the federal funds rate further, it will leave the rate at its minimum level until the labor market recovers and inflation returns to 2 percent. Second, the Fed should commit that under the same circumstances, it will begin to purchase longer-term assets in volume and will continue such purchases until the labor market recovers. If the forces driving the next recession are not unusually severe, this framework might allow the Fed to be as effective at fighting that recession as it was in the past. If the next recession is more severe, however, the Fed will probably run out of ammunition even if it takes the two steps recommended here. Therefore, both monetary and fiscal policymakers should consider yet other steps they could take to enhance their ability to fight future recessions.","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133786934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Efficient Demonetization 有效的禁止流通
Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal Pub Date : 2020-02-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3054969
S. Dixit
{"title":"Efficient Demonetization","authors":"S. Dixit","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3054969","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3054969","url":null,"abstract":"What were the distributional consequences of the recent demonetization in India? Can the implementation of demonetization be improved to mitigate its distributional impact? This paper answers these questions using a dynamic contracting model featuring costly state verification and cash-in-advance constraints. Using an instrumental variables strategy, I document substantial heterogeneity in the impact of demonetization on consumption expenditure across income and wealth distributions. This finding suggests that the non-discriminatory transfer limits implemented during demonetization were too blunt to insure against idiosyncratic income risk. I propose sharper monetary policy instruments contingent on the history of reported household income to facilitate static and dynamic consumption smoothing. I isolate the conditions under which optimal state-contingent transfer limits are weakly decreasing in income and strictly increasing in wealth. A model calibrated to Indian data reveals that switching to a state-contingent monetary policy produces long-run gains in central bank surplus equal to 28.5% of aggregate income.","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"145 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125847961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Macroprudential Policy Measures: Macroeconomic Impact and Interaction with Monetary Policy 宏观审慎政策措施:宏观经济影响及其与货币政策的相互作用
Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal Pub Date : 2020-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3541732
G. Cozzi, Matthieu Darracq Pariès, P. Karadi, Jenny Körner, Christoffer Kok, Falk Mazelis, Kalin Nikolov, E. Rancoita, Alejandro Van der Ghote, Julien Weber
{"title":"Macroprudential Policy Measures: Macroeconomic Impact and Interaction with Monetary Policy","authors":"G. Cozzi, Matthieu Darracq Pariès, P. Karadi, Jenny Körner, Christoffer Kok, Falk Mazelis, Kalin Nikolov, E. Rancoita, Alejandro Van der Ghote, Julien Weber","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3541732","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3541732","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the interactions of macroprudential and monetary policies. We find, using a range of macroeconomic models used at the European Central Bank, that in the long run, a 1% bank capital requirement increase has a small impact on GDP. In the short run, GDP declines by 0.15-0.35%. Under a stronger monetary policy reaction, the impact falls to 0.05-0.25%. The paper also examines how capital requirements and the conduct of macroprudential policy affect the monetary transmission mechanism. Higher bank leverage increases the economy's vulnerability to shocks but also monetary policy's ability to offset them. Macroprudential policy diminishes the frequency and severity of financial crises thus eliminating the need for extremely low interest rates. Countercyclical capital measures reduce the neutral real interest rate in normal times. JEL Classification: E4, E43, E5, E52, G20, G21","PeriodicalId":145273,"journal":{"name":"Monetary Economics: Central Banks - Policies & Impacts eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130328752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
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