ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"The Russian Economy in Expectation of Growth","authors":"S. Tsukhlo","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2815443","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2815443","url":null,"abstract":"Generalizing assessment of the existing economic situation (Adaptability index) has demonstrated in Q2 2016 the fact that the Russian economy persisted in high level of adaptability to the 2014–2016 crisis. By the end of two months of the quarter, the indicator hit the all-time maximum of 72%. Estimates of demand and employments are the principal positive drivers of the Index.","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127797559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multiproduct Model Decomposition of Components of Russian GDP","authors":"N. Pilnik, I. Pospelov, I. Stankevich","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2693525","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2693525","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a method for a multiproduct model decomposition of GDP components by expenditure which allows the use of several different price indices in the same model. The decomposition does not link the products to imports or exports, therefore, it imposes no restrictions on the behaviour of these series and their deflators. The theoretical reasoning, the estimation methodology and the estimation results for Russian GDP data are presented. A method of the decomposition of changes in inventories is also presented.","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114879235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding a Cuban Transition","authors":"Roy C. Smith, I. Walter","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2646700","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2646700","url":null,"abstract":"The 2014-15 US initiatives in revising its policy toward Cuba after more than a half half century provides a natural experiment in transition from a command economy to something approaching a market-driven system. In many ways it is a cleaner experiment than experienced in Eastern Europe, Vietnam and other transition stories because of the long duration of an entrenched command system, tight constraints on civil society, and relatively few problems with confounding variables. This paper represents a primer on the political economy of Cuba in retrospect and prospect. It. traces the country's economic and financial history from Spanish rule to the present, identifies the nature of the policy shocks to which it is now exposed, and considers the possible outcomes and their pacing.","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127120858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economocracy","authors":"Constantinos Challoumis Κωνσταντίνος Χαλλουμής","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3085211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3085211","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract of a global growth model — A reformed economic system required for transformation of global grown debt to sustainable levels. The challenge to avoid economic worldwide deadlock yields the emerging need for economocracy as a premium democracy, serving with that way the social stability.","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126704717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Aid on Demand: African Leaders and the Geography of China's Foreign Assistance","authors":"A. Dreher, A. Fuchs, R. Hodler, Bradley C. Parks, P. Raschky, M. Tierney","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2531966","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2531966","url":null,"abstract":"This article investigates whether China's foreign aid is particularly prone to political capture by political leaders of aid-receiving countries. Specifically, we examine whether more Chinese aid is allocated to the political leaders' birth regions and regions populated by the ethnic group to which the leader belongs, controlling for indicators of need and various fixed effects. We have collected data on 117 African leaders' birthplaces and ethnic groups and geocoded 1,650 Chinese development finance projects across 3,097 physical locations committed to Africa over the 2000-2012 period. Our econometric results show that current political leaders' birth regions receive substantially larger financial flows from China than other regions. On the contrary, when we replicate the analysis for the World Bank, our regressions with region-fixed effects show no evidence of such favoritism. For Chinese and World Bank aid alike, we also find no evidence that African leaders direct more aid to areas populated by groups who share their ethnicity, when controlling for region-fixed effects.","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"157 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124406248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Globalization: Realities and Prospects","authors":"Shavkat Zaynutdinov, Dr. Zufar Ashurov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2590022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2590022","url":null,"abstract":"This paper states the authors’ views on the realities and prospects of globalization as an economic, political and social category. In particular, there considered the development factors of globalization in the world economy such as innovation development, expansion of intergovernmental investment, international division of labor, international production, political relations, liberalization of foreign economic relations, privatization, scientific and technical processes etc. In conclusion, the authors give their forecasts for development of globalization processes which may be the priority in the future prospect.","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127665686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Why Nations Converge? Has Globalization Contributed to Convergence? A Panel Data Exploration","authors":"A. Mateus","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2525153","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2525153","url":null,"abstract":"Using an extensive data base we estimate cross-section and panel growth regression using the MRW model and estimates of Total Factor Productivity with Solow and Hall and Jones methods. The data show an overall process of convergence, but it was uneven over the 1960-2010 years. Was the process intensified with globalization? Data show that after the 1990s international trade played a major role for the restart of convergence. Institutions seem to play a more significant role after the 1990s, as most countries have moved to market economies. The paper confirms also the increasing relevance of outward-oriented policies and the complementarity of cross-section and panel data analysis.","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122991680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Real Value of China's Stock Market","authors":"J. Carpenter, Fangzhou Lu, Robert F. Whitelaw","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2519886","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2519886","url":null,"abstract":"China is the world’s largest investor and greatest contributor to global economic growth by wide margins, and will remain so for many years. The efficiency of its financial system in allocating capital to investment will be important to sustain this growth. This paper shows that China’s stock market has a crucial role to play. Since the reforms of the last decade, China’s stock market has become as informative about future corporate profits as in the US. Moreover, though it is a segmented market, Chinese investors price risk and other stock characteristics remarkably like investors in other large economies. They pay up for large stocks, growth stocks, and long shots, and they discount for illiquidity and market risk. China’s stock market no longer deserves its reputation as a casino. In addition, the trend of stock price informativeness over the last two decades is highly correlated with that of corporate investment efficiency. China’s stock market appears to be aggregating diffuse information and generating useful signals for managers. On the buy side, because of its low correlation with other stock markets and high average returns, China’s stock market offers high alpha to diversified global investors who can access it. Yet this high alpha amounts to an inflated cost of equity capital, constraining the investment of China’s smaller, more profitable enterprises. Further reforms that open this market to global investors and improve stock price informativeness will be important to increase China’s investment efficiency and fuel its continued economic growth. Finally, we interpret the stock market’s recent gyrations through the lens of this research, arguing that its post-crisis lag was a rational downward adjustment to competition from the rapidly expanding shadow banking sector, and its enormous rally last year is a cheer for the roll out of deposit insurance and other Third Plenum reforms. More than ever, China’s stock market is a crucial counterpart to its extraordinary, relationship-driven, but opaque banking sector. China’s stock market may now be the world’s most important crystal ball.","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"2012 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114874581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can Uzbekistan Economy Retain Its High Growth Rate? Scenarios of Economic Development in 2015-30","authors":"V. Popov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2520224","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2520224","url":null,"abstract":"Uzbekistan in recent 10 years is an extremely successful economy – high growth (8%), low domestic and international debt, undervalued exchange rate, relatively even distribution of income, creation from scratch competitive export oriented auto industry. It is important though to avoid “dizziness from success” and to envisage possible growth traps in the future. This paper discusses two unfavourable scenarios – negative terms of trade shock due to the decline in cotton, gas and gold prices (a deterioration of the current account balance by 10 p.p. of GDP) and a decline in growth rates of total factor productivity (TFP), as well as possible government responses to these shocks, in particular, changes in industrial policy. In recent years Uzbekistan promotes heavy chemistry industries (production of synthetic fuel and polypropylene goods from natural gas). This is the next stage of industrial policy after reaching food and energy self-sufficiency and successful auto industry development. There are reservations, however, against this strategy. First, gas production is about to decline due to depletion of reserves. Second, the level and growth rates of TFP in heavy chemistry are by far not the highest (they are the highest in light and food industry and in machine building). The increased share of heavy chemistry in total industrial output will cause the decline in the level and the growth rates of TFP. Third, auto industry is already a success, it may be reasonable to continue to support machine building industries of medium level of technology sophistication, like auto industry. For the country of the average size, export specialization in two major areas (autos and heavy chemistry) may be excessive.","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132911996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"China as a Developmental State","authors":"J. Knight","doi":"10.1111/twec.12215","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12215","url":null,"abstract":"type=\"main\" xml:id=\"twec12215-abs-0001\"> The paper examines the notion of a ‘developmental state’ and shows that China possesses the relevant characteristics. It explains the political economy which generated such a state in China. It analyses the institutions and methods that were introduced to create a developmental state, in particular the incentive structures that the leadership used to solve the principal-agent problem implicit in having centralised political control but decentralised economic management. These include personnel policies, fiscal decentralisation and patronage relationships. That leads to a review of its successes, limitations and adverse consequences and to the question: can China's developmental state be sustained? Among these issues are the great socioeconomic changes that rapid economic growth has entailed – which have strengthened the case for broadening government policy objectives beyond the previous narrow focus on growth. Conclusions are drawn for both China and other developing countries.","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"103 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121137553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}