DecisionSciRN: Other Economic Decision Theory (Sub-Topic)最新文献

Gerd Gigerenzer and Vernon Smith: Ecological Rationality of Heuristics in Psychology and Economics Gerd Gigerenzer和Vernon Smith:心理学和经济学中启发式的生态合理性

DecisionSciRN: Other Economic Decision Theory (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2015-12-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3457191

S. Mousavi

{"title":"Gerd Gigerenzer and Vernon Smith: Ecological Rationality of Heuristics in Psychology and Economics","authors":"S. Mousavi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3457191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3457191","url":null,"abstract":"Behavioral economists use psychological findings to evaluate and revise economic decision theory, to build models that correspond directly to observations of behavior, and to develop descriptive accounts for deviations from principles of neoclassical rationality. One of the main sources of psychological insight is the heuristics and biases research program. This chapter introduces another source of psychological insights, the ecological rationality of fast-and-frugal heuristics, and is organized as follows. First, the chapter juxtaposes psychological (á la Gigerenzer) with economic (á la Smith) views of ecological rationality, thereby connecting fast-and-frugal heuristics to a major source of inspiration and motivation for behavioral economists, namely experimental economics. Then, it briefly reviews a collection of articles illustrating how the successful use of heuristics in business decision making can be understood by using ecological rationality as an investigative framework. Finally, it locates the field of inquiry for behavioral economics on a continuum of scientific problem solving in the interval that Weaver (1948) called organized complexity. Simple heuristics deserve special attention from behavioral economists because they work best in this very interval where exact methods of optimization are structurally unfitting. Put together, these connections, examples, and arguments suggest that mainstream behavioral economics can gain from integrating this less-explored psychological framework. This integration starts by attempting to formulate effective decision rules as fast-and-frugal heuristics and exploring their ecological rationality.","PeriodicalId":143310,"journal":{"name":"DecisionSciRN: Other Economic Decision Theory (Sub-Topic)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128532817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Presentation Slides for 'Are Investors Really Reluctant to Realize Their Losses? Trading Responses to Past Returns and the Disposition Effect' “投资者真的不愿意识到自己的损失吗?”交易对过去收益的反应与处置效应

DecisionSciRN: Other Economic Decision Theory (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2012-04-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3217315

Itzhak Ben-David, D. Hirshleifer

引用次数: 0

Differential Information Economies and Incomplete Markets 差异信息经济与不完全市场

DecisionSciRN: Other Economic Decision Theory (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2008-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3357891

K. Pronin

引用次数: 0

Modeling the 'Pseudodeductible' in Insurance Claims Decisions 保险索赔决策中的“假免赔额”建模

DecisionSciRN: Other Economic Decision Theory (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2006-08-01 DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1060.0517

Michael Braun, P. Fader, Eric T. Bradlow, H. Kunreuther

{"title":"Modeling the 'Pseudodeductible' in Insurance Claims Decisions","authors":"Michael Braun, P. Fader, Eric T. Bradlow, H. Kunreuther","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.1060.0517","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1060.0517","url":null,"abstract":"In many different managerial contexts, consumers “leave money on the table” by, for example, their failure to claim rebates, use available coupons, and so on. This project focuses on a related problem faced by homeowners who may be reluctant to file insurance claims despite the fact their losses are covered. We model this consumer decision by introducing the concept of the “pseudodeductible,” a latent threshold above the policy deductible that governs the homeowner's claim behavior. In addition, we show how the observed number of claims can be modeled as the output of three stochastic processes that are separately, and in conjunction, managerially relevant: the rate at which losses occur, the size of each loss, and the choice of the individual to file or not file a claim. By allowing for the possibility of pseudodeductibles, one can sort out (and make accurate inferences about) these three processes. We test this model using a proprietary data set provided by State Farm, the largest underwriter of personal lines insurance in the United States. Using mixtures of Dirichlet processes to capture heterogeneity and the interplay among the three processes, we uncover several relevant “stories” that underlie the frequency and severity of claims. For instance, some customers have a small number of losses, but all are filed as claims, whereas others may experience many more losses, but are more selective about which claims they file. These stories explain several observed phenomena regarding the claims decisions that insurance customers make, and have broad implications for customer lifetime value and market segmentation.","PeriodicalId":143310,"journal":{"name":"DecisionSciRN: Other Economic Decision Theory (Sub-Topic)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114675649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 32

Risk Reduction in the New Financial Architecture: Realities, Fallacies, and Proposals 新金融架构中的风险降低:现实、谬误和建议

DecisionSciRN: Other Economic Decision Theory (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 1999-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.165550

Martin Mayer

{"title":"Risk Reduction in the New Financial Architecture: Realities, Fallacies, and Proposals","authors":"Martin Mayer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.165550","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.165550","url":null,"abstract":"Five times in a decade not yet completed, financial markets have floated to the edge of a whirlpool; in October 1998 they were about to drown when Alan Greenspan threw them a piece of string that, surprisingly, turned out to be a lifeline. The causes for this financial instability lie deep—in the economic theory that urges easy and efficient substitution of one piece of paper for another, always and everywhere; in the technology-driven tight articulation of receipts and payments that Hyman Minsky warned against a generation ago; and in the growth of leverage that diminishes the creditworthiness of major institutions when an interruption in their receipts requires them to seek funds. Meanwhile, as decision-making in finance moves from banks to markets, and the creators of derivative instruments find ways to present uncertainties as risks that can be modeled, time horizons fall and spurious interrelations promote \"dynamic hedging\" that communicates financial disturbance anywhere to price volatility everywhere. Prevention should be sought in rules to control the creation of leverage in the repo and derivatives markets and in limits on banks' freedom to back away from borrowers' cross-border liabilities in currencies other than their own. Crisis management when prevention fails will require \"standstill\" agreements to encourage the continuation of something like normal economic life while the losses from merely financial failure are sorted out.","PeriodicalId":143310,"journal":{"name":"DecisionSciRN: Other Economic Decision Theory (Sub-Topic)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121831280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5