ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Alternative Measures of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area","authors":"C. Conflitti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3826457","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3826457","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes two measures of underlying inflation for euro area as an alternative to the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices excluding Food and Energy. The first measure, called the Core cycle measure, is constructed by using a Phillips curve model to distinguish disaggregated prices that respond to the economic cycle (procyclical), from those which do not (acyclical). The second measure, called the Common core measure, is constructed using a factor model to remove components that are subject to large or unusual price changes, which are unlikely to be related to the underlying trend of inflation because of their idiosyncratic nature. Each measure has merits and shortcomings, suggesting that they should be taken together to assess inflation developments.<br>","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128724434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inflation-Linked Bonds, Nominal Bonds, and Countercyclical Monetary Policies","authors":"E. Westerhout","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3759684","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3759684","url":null,"abstract":"Although inflation-linked bonds have many advantages, nominal bonds are the most important instrument to finance public debts throughout the world. One explanation that the literature has offered is that nominal bonds make countercyclical monetary policies more effective. This paper reconsiders this argument with a model that features an inflation risk premium in the nominal bonds interest rate. In this model, nominal bonds help to stabilize the economy, but also add to debt service costs. The paper finds that the debt service costs channel is very powerful: in the case of discretionary policymaking, inflation-linked bonds always outperform nominal bonds. The case of commitment qualifies this result. Still, also commitment cannot explain the occurrence of large stocks of nominal bonds alongside small stocks of inflation-linked bonds.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130511375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inflation Targeted P/E","authors":"S. Rowles","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3721008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3721008","url":null,"abstract":"Higher than average Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios and Cyclically-Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratios have been tolerated by investors recently on the basis of low interest and inflation rates. This white paper debates how much premium should be acceptable using an inverse percentile-based estimation method with inflation as the core driver.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134472093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Has Inflation Targeting Strategy Made A Difference in Ghanaian Macroeconomic Management? Analysis of Business Cycle Fluctuations and Econometric Estimates","authors":"N. Akosah, Imhotep Paul Alagidede, E. Schaling","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3704720","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3704720","url":null,"abstract":"For over a decade of practicing inflation targeting (IT) strategy, inflation has remained high and persistent while economic growth momentum has boosted in Ghana. This paper investigates the relative macroeconomic benefits of the IT strategy in Ghana based on business cycle fluctuations and several standard econometric techniques that capture other salient macroeconomic events and/or disasters. The basic empirical finding is that the IT strategy has generally improved the macroeconomic management in Ghana by reducing average inflation rate, boosting average growth rate and dampening the cyclical oscillations in both output and inflation. We however find a slower pace of disinflation in Ghana, underpinning the high inflation inertia and backward-looking inflation expectation formation. The gradual disinflation process is an attestation that the monetary authority in Ghana has been practicing flexible rather than stringent IT strategy in the midst of frequent shock-side shocks, weak policy transmission (due to protracted transmission lags) and continuous fiscal surprises which create additional source of concerns that the central bank finds it cumbersome to ignore. The central bank of Ghana can improve its policy credibility and hence sharp agents’ inflation expectation by enhancing policy communication and acknowledging that it does not focus solely on the inflation target but is also watchful of short-run trade-offs between inflation and output (and employment).","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126985213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Institutions and Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis of Developing and Developed Countries based on Institutionalized Social Technologies Index","authors":"D. Siddiqui, Q. M. Ahmed","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3641570","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3641570","url":null,"abstract":"This paper used index of institutionalized social technologies (lIST) developed by Siddiqui and Ahmed (2018) as a proxy of institutions quality, to analyse their impact on Economic growth. This index was made up of two sub-indices namely Risk reducing technologies and Anti Rent seeking technologies. The cross sectional analysis covered 141 countries. The values are taken as average of the period of 1990 to 2008. The effectiveness of these indices is tested in growth models along with other variables such as inflation, human capital, savings and trade. It also factors in initial conditions to measure signs of convergence. OLS and GMM based methodologies are employed for estimation. The findings are robust and consistent. Institutional quality is positively associated with economic growth suggesting that institutional reforms such as minimizing corruption, strengthen property rights, improving law and order conditions, and enforcing contracts can leads to economic growth. Moreover, the impact of institutions on growth is more pronounces in high income countries, showing institutions are also crucial for sustenance of growth. Among the two forms of institutions, the risk reducing technologies affect economic growth considerably more than anti-rent seeking technologies. The results also confirm conditional convergence as predicted in the modern theories of growth. Overall, these results suggest that effectiveness of institutional reforms would depend upon how these institutions impact growth.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114586911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Asymmetric Responses of Consumer Spending to Energy Prices: A Threshold VAR Approach","authors":"Edward S. Knotek II, Saeed Zaman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3628806","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3628806","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We document asymmetric responses of consumer spending to energy price shocks: using a threshold vector autoregressive model estimated with Bayesian methods on U.S. data with high and low real energy inflation regimes, positive energy price shocks have a greater negative effect on consumption compared with the increase in consumption that arises from negative energy price shocks. For large shocks, the cumulative consumption responses are three to five times greater for positive than negative shocks. In disaggregated spending data, the asymmetric responses are strongest for durable goods consumption, but asymmetries are also present in the responses of nondurables and services consumption.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130673643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"COVID-19 Could Cause Bigger Cracks in Turkey’s Fragile Crisis Prone Economy","authors":"John Taskinsoy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3613367","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3613367","url":null,"abstract":"The cash strapped Turkey's gloomy economy was already ailing before the emergence of COVID-19 pandemic. The August rout of 2018 caused serious cracks as lira tumbled against the dollar (25% in three days and 41% in just two weeks); consequently, core inflation peaked at 26% and key interest rate shot up to 24% in October 2018. Currency crisis (the worst since 2001 Turkish economic crisis) along with coronavirus health crisis and the resultant Great Lockdown jolted the Turkish economy from its roots sending chills to the bones of financial markets, which could cost $50 billion or more. If the Turkish government (President Erdogan in particular) is not able to come up with at least $50 billion to support its economy during this extraordinary tough time, coronavirus as a heavy puncture will send the ailing Turkish economy right to the burial ground, this was reflected in ineffectiveness of policy interventions by the Turkish central bank (i.e. abbreviated as TCMB). According to Fitch’s latest forecast, Turkish economy is expected to contract 3% in 2020 (i.e. forecast of 3.9% growth).","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"132 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130617203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Macro and Microeconomics Evidences from Sri Lanka","authors":"N. Deyshappriya","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3597494","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3597494","url":null,"abstract":"The World Health Organization declared a global emergency condition due to widespread of COVID-19 across the globe. The present study comprehensively examines the impacts of COVID-19 on GDP, employment, inflation, stock market, externa sector performance and poverty in the context of Sri Lanka. The analysis reveals COVID-19 creates adverse impacts on both GDP and employment in Sri Lanka, despite magnitude of the impacts is significantly lower than that of South Asian average. Apart from that, ‘panic buying’, interrupted domestic production and distribution and restriction on imports have created an inflationary pressure on the economy led by headline inflation. Moreover, COVID-19 drastically affected Colombo Stock Exchange in Sri Lanka, reporting a historical low in mid-March 2020. External sector performance of Sri Lanka has weakened due to reduced export earnings, tourism receipts and remittances and in turn Sri Lanka rupee has sharply depreciated against major currencies in the world. In addition to major macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19, the study also observed microeconomic impacts of COVID-19 through projecting poverty dynamics under four-way poverty classification. The predictions reveals that there is a greater potential of increasing poverty incidence related to all poverty types (Extreme Poor, Poor and Vulnerable Non-poor) under present pandemic situation. Ultimately, the welfare effect of COVID-19 which will be higher than expected will essentially hinder the long-term economic development process of the country. Therefore, appropriate measures should be taken to regain the economy while controlling the spread of the pandemic.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126815101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Role of Financial Journalists in the Expectations Channel of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism","authors":"Monique Reid, P. Siklos, T. Guetterman, S. Du Plessis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3583279","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3583279","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Monetary policy relies on managing the inflation expectations of the public in order to influence prices (inflation). Relying on the South African experience, we argue that most of the general public are exposed to the communication of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) only via the media. This state of affairs is fairly typical around the globe. We explored the role and biases of the journalists in transmitting the SARB’s communications to the rationally inattentive general public. Our aim was to obtain insights about the factors that influence media articles that deal with monetary policy issues. Using interviews and qualitative content analysis, we explored the extent of the journalists’ knowledge about inflation and monetary policy, their views concerning the credibility of the SARB, the sources of information they use, and the constraints and incentives they face in writing their articles.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126816734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Анализ подходов к определению оптимального уровня инфляции при инфляционном таргетировании (Analysis of Approaches to Determining the Optimal Level of Inflation with Inflation Targeting)","authors":"Elena V. Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Alina Grebenkina, Natalia Makeeva","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3650012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3650012","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Russian Abstract:</b> Целью данного исследования является оценка диапазона уровней инфляции для России, согласующихся с понятием «оптимальной» инфляции, а также в сравнении полученных значений с соответствующими оценками для других стран и с целевым значением Банка России. В ходе проведения работы авторами были выявлены и проанализированы основные факторы, влияющие на оптимальный уровень инфляции в рамках теоретических работ, в том числе факторы, определяющие положительность оптимального уровня инфляции. Кроме того, в работе представлена классификация основных эмпирических подходов, используемых для оценки оптимального уровня инфляции, проведен анализ их преимуществ и недостатков. В эконометрической части работы проведены оценки порогового уровня инфляции на различных выборках панельных данных, включающих Россию. Результаты данной работы могут быть использованы в интересах Банка России при оценке ключевых параметров денежно-кредитной политики, таких как цель по инфляции, а также для разработки основных направлений единой государственной денежно-кредитной политики.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> The purpose of this workpaper is to estimate the range of inflation rates for Russia that are consistent with the concept of optimal inflation, as well as to compare the obtained estimations with the corresponding estimates for other countries and the target value of the Bank of Russia. The first section identifies and analyzes the main factors affecting the optimal lvel of inflation in the framework of theoretical works, including factors determining the positivity of the optimal level of inflation. The second section presents a classification of the main empirical approaches used to estimate the optimal level of inflation and the analysis of their advantages and disadvantages. The third econometric section provides estimations of the threshold level of inflation obtained on various samples of panel data, including Russia. The conclusion summarizes the main results of the workpaper. The results of this workpaper can be used by the Bank of Russia in assessing key parameters of monetary policy, such as the inflation target, as well as for the development of the main directions of the unified state monetary policy.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"78 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125925332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}