ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Chinese Influences on Inflation Determination in Australia and the ASEAN group: A Markov-Switching Analysis","authors":"R. Burdekin, R. Tao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3764986","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3764986","url":null,"abstract":"China’s rapidly growing role in the world economy has been accompanied by rising bilateral trade with Australia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN group) as well as expanded offshore renminbi (RMB) markets in the region. Using a Markov-switching analysis that allows for variation across stable and volatile domestic inflation regimes, we find evidence of significant inflation transmission from China to Australia and the five larger ASEAN economies. Chinese inflation effects are further confirmed when we incorporate money supply and commodity price effects within a Markov-switching Vector Autoregressive (MSVAR) framework. The importance of allowing for regime change over our sample period is clear and these inflation effects are shown to generally be stronger during periods when domestic inflation is more volatile. These findings on inflation pass-through from China represent a novel extension to a prior literature that has been primarily limited to real economy and trade effects.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"434 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126101896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The 2000s Housing Cycle With 2020 Hindsight: A Neo-Kindlebergerian View","authors":"Gabriel Chodorow-reich, Adam M. Guren, Timothy J McQuade","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3899313","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3899313","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 With “2020 hindsight,” the 2000s housing cycle is not a boom-bust but a boom-bustrebound. Using a spatial equilibrium regression in which house prices are determined by income, amenities, urbanization, and supply, we show that long-run city-level fundamentals predict not only 1997-2019 price and rent growth but also the amplitude of the boom-bust-rebound. This evidence motivates our model of a cycle rooted in fundamentals. Households learn about fundamentals by observing “dividends” but become over-optimistic in the boom due to diagnostic expectations. A bust ensues when beliefs start to correct, exacerbated by a price-foreclosure spiral that drives prices below their long-run level. The rebound follows as prices converge to a path commensurate with higher fundamental growth. The estimated model explains the boom-bust-rebound with a single shock and accounts quantitatively for the dynamics of prices, rents, and foreclosures in cities with the largest cycles. We draw implications for asset cycles more generally.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125502111","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"People’s Perceptions of Inflation (A Survey Data Analysis)","authors":"Faisal Quaiyyum, Kazi Aiman Udoy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3896974","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3896974","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we have presented our results from an online survey on people's perceptions of increase in price level, conducted by the authors. Based on the results, we have drawn conclusions and constructed some hypotheses which need further research to get a solid foundation. The survey has tried to explore three aspects of the associated perceptions: whether the respondents are aware of the increase in daily commodity prices or not, the reasons behind the increase in price level and the state of price level that is appropriate for the economy of Bangladesh.People’s expectations of inflation shape the future inflation of an economy. Similarly, people's take on inflation can help them build their expectations of future inflation. Therefore, studying the perspectives is important to get a more clarified picture of the future inflation. It can also help while formulating policies to control the price level or other associated macroeconomic variables. Additionally, the inspection can be a great assist to illustrate the behavioral glitch of the respondents in terms of the relation to the macroeconomic picture.We have tried to show the responses on the questions in terms of the age groups and groups consisting of respondents who have or do not have prior formal knowledge of Economics. An interesting behavior noticed in the case of the people with economics background is that their behavior is inconsistent with the modern economics theory.Age groups are divided into four categories. The research data shows that the majority of the respondents support the idea that bad governance has given them a reason to expect inflation. The least supported reason is the effect of monetary policy. People do not tend to think that much about the impacts of monetary policy. COVID-19 pandemic leads a moderate number of respondents to formulate their perceptions on inflation. A highly negligible portion of respondents has said that they were not aware of the recent increase in the price level of daily commodities. A few hypotheses have also been developed from the analysis, which are mentioned in the discussion section. Further investigation is necessary to establish a statement in these cases.An interesting fact derived from this survey is that an important portion of people thinks that an increase in the price level to a limited extent is good for the economy of Bangladesh. Except for age group 3 (31-40), majority of all the groups support this idea. However, this inconsistent behavior among the age group 3 can be neglected since the more responses are necessary to establish this inconsistency as a significant issue. The second most supported appropriate inflationary state for the respondents is the decrease in price level.The responses were collected through Google Form. The data analysis and cleaning were performed using spreadsheet software.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114348153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"De-anchored Long-term Inflation Expectations in a Low Growth, Low Rate Environment","authors":"Guido Bulligan, Francesco Corsello, S. Neri, A. Tagliabracci","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3891632","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3891632","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides evidence of de-anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area based on both time series and panel methods and data from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. Long-term inflation expectations recorded two sharp and permanent declines: the first after the 2013 disinflation, the second in early 2019. Long-term inflation expectations also started reacting to short-term developments in inflation after the 2013 disinflation. Long-term growth expectations have declined continuously since the early 2000s. Looking forward, the increased likelihood of a low growth and low inflation environment may reduce the monetary policy space. The positive correlation between long-term real GDP growth and inflation expectations suggests that forecasters view future macroeconomic developments as driven mainly by demand-side shocks. Under these circumstances, the risk of a further de-anchoring of long-term inflation expectations remains high.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"51 5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132327766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sectoral Heterogeneity in Nominal Price Rigidity and the Origin of Aggregate Fluctuations","authors":"E. Pastén, Raphael S. Schoenle, Michael Weber","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3022193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3022193","url":null,"abstract":"We derive conditions under which heterogeneity in nominal price rigidity amplifies the aggregate fluctuations from idiosyncratic shocks and demonstrate its quantitative implications: (1) GDP volatility from sectoral productivity shocks doubles when nominal price rigidity is heterogeneous rather than homogeneous; (2) sectoral productivity shocks can jointly rationalize the volatility of sectoral prices, aggregate prices, and GDP contrary to aggregate productivity shocks; (3) heterogeneity in nominal rigidity changes the sectors from which aggregate fluctuations originate. We also discuss implications for aggregate price dynamics and the role of alternative monetary policy rules.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126620068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Caída y convergencia mundial de las tasas de inflación (Fall and Global Convergence of Inflation Rates)","authors":"Carlos Esteban Posada, Wilman Arturo Gomez, Remberto Rhenals","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3811650","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3811650","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Spanish Abstract:</b> La tendencia observada desde 1998a la desinflación mundial y a que lasinflaciones nacionalesse estabilicenen niveles bajos obedece al comportamiento de la inflación de Estados Unidos. Esto es lo que podemos decir a la luz de resultados econométricos con cifras de frecuencia trimestral de Estados Unidos y de otros 30 países de varios continentes. En efecto, estosresultados son favorables a tal hipótesis y desfavorables a hipótesis alternativas que harían énfasis en laspolíticas monetarias nacionales o choques deflacionistas de origen “real”(no monetario). Adicionalmente, la evidencia empírica indica que, en general, las políticas monetarias nacionales han sido laxas, en el siguiente sentido: los hacedores de la política monetaria han aprovechado las fuerzas desinflacionarias(o deflacionarias) provenientes de Estados Unidos para ejecutar políticas laxas previendo algunos beneficios de esto (sobre la actividad económica u otros) sin temer que se haga evidente su costo en términos de una mayor inflación.AbstractThe trend observed since 1998 to<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> The trend observed since 1998 towards global disinflation and for national inflation rates to stabilize at low levels is due to the behavior of inflation in the United States according to the econometric exercises reported in this paper with a quarterly frequency data from the United States and 30 other countries. Additionally, the empirical evidence indicates that, in general, national monetary policies have been lax, in the following sense: monetary policy makers have taken advantage of disinflationary (or deflationary) forces coming from the United States to execute lax policies anticipating some benefits from those without fearing that its cost in terms of higher inflation will become evident.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"107 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116359014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistica Afacerilor: Aplicaţii, partea a patra (Business Statistics: Exercises, Part 4)","authors":"R. Stefanescu, Ramona Dumitriu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3770146","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3770146","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Romanian Abstract:</b> Adeseori, în cadrul analizei seriilor de timp exprimate în unităţi monetare, este indicată ajustarea la inflaţie. Această lucrare prezintă câteva tehnici simple de evaluare a creşterii reale.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> Quite often, for the study of time series measured in units of money, it is indicated the adjustment to inflation. This paper presents some simple techniques of the real growth assessment.<br>","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"81 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126220033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Precautionary Saving and Un-anchored Expectations","authors":"A. Grimaud","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3792920","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3792920","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates monetary policy in a heterogeneous agent new Keynesian (HANK) model where agents face idiosyncratic income risk and use adaptive learning in order to form their expectations. Households experience different histories and observe different idiosyncratic variables. This gives rise to idiosyncratic learning processes, which naturally implies the existence of heterogeneous expectations. In HANK models, supply shocks generate precautionary saving. The learning setup amplifies this effect and can result in long-lasting disinflationary traps. Dovish Taylor rules focused on closing the output gap dampen the learning effects. Price level targeting improves the inflation and output stabilization trade-off by better anchoring expectations.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"18 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131613796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inflation Risk and the Finance-Growth Nexus","authors":"A. Corhay, Jincheng Tong","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3795679","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3795679","url":null,"abstract":"This paper shows that the effect of inflation on asset prices and real aggregates depends on the financial intermediation sector. When firms finance using nominal long-term debt issued by financial intermediaries, unexpected changes in inflation lead to a wealth transfer across sectors. Higher inflation decreases firms' real liabilities and default risk, which helps reduce debt overhang. However, it hurts intermediaries' balance sheet, leading to a contraction in credit. We show theoretically that the ultimate effect of inflation depends on the tightness of financing constraints in the intermediation sector. We find strong empirical evidence consistent with these results. We also show that an inflation policy responding to both financial and real variables can help stabilize our economy.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131351447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Japan – Canary in the Coal Mine for the Great Decline of the Western Economies","authors":"D. Carr","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3768710","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3768710","url":null,"abstract":"Japan is the most significant economy in the world today, because it exemplifies fifty years of declining economic growth for the major advanced economies. This paper provides an overview of distinct models for economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and the yield curve and applies them to Japan’s economic and financial circumstances.<br><br>Japan’s growth decline is due to lower net investment, which is now almost zero. Japan’s low economic growth is not due to its low population growth; low population growth is due to low economic growth. Low inflation will continue. Inflation from monetary stimulus diminishes geometrically – now virtually zero in all western economies. Inflation from non-monetary causes depends on economic and population growth – both very low for Japan. Fixed income and equity investment returns are now largely governed by central bank intervention without which yields would be higher and above zero, while equities would be lower.<br><br>Japan can break the downward economic spiral and attain 3% growth with 2% inflation by reducing government spending relative to GDP as Sweden and Ireland successfully have done. Should Japanese government spending rise significantly from current levels, the country will be trapped in negative growth and deflation.<br>","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114675312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}