De-anchored Long-term Inflation Expectations in a Low Growth, Low Rate Environment

Abstract

This paper provides evidence of de-anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area based on both time series and panel methods and data from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. Long-term inflation expectations recorded two sharp and permanent declines: the first after the 2013 disinflation, the second in early 2019. Long-term inflation expectations also started reacting to short-term developments in inflation after the 2013 disinflation. Long-term growth expectations have declined continuously since the early 2000s. Looking forward, the increased likelihood of a low growth and low inflation environment may reduce the monetary policy space. The positive correlation between long-term real GDP growth and inflation expectations suggests that forecasters view future macroeconomic developments as driven mainly by demand-side shocks. Under these circumstances, the risk of a further de-anchoring of long-term inflation expectations remains high.