ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)最新文献

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The Mussa Puzzle: A Generalization 穆萨之谜:一个概括
ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-01-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3769398
Cosimo Petracchi
{"title":"The Mussa Puzzle: A Generalization","authors":"Cosimo Petracchi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3769398","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3769398","url":null,"abstract":"One of the most compelling pieces of evidence for monetary non-neutrality is the Mussa puzzle, in which the break in the monetary regime when the Bretton Woods System broke down increased the volatility of not only the nominal exchange rate but the real exchange rate. Using data covering thirty-one European countries from 1954 to 2019, I find that the Mussa puzzle is generalizable: any break in a monetary regime that changes the volatility of the nominal exchange rate also changes the volatility of the real exchange rate. This provides further evidence of monetary non-neutrality.","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"104 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116425742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Interest On Reserves As A Main Monetary Policy Tool 准备金利率作为货币政策的主要工具
ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-01-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3774140
George J. Bratsiotis
{"title":"Interest On Reserves As A Main Monetary Policy Tool","authors":"George J. Bratsiotis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3774140","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3774140","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the potential role of the interest on reserves as a main monetary policy tool, in a model of financial intermediation with financial and nominal frictions calibrated to US data (1985-2018). The interest on reserves is shown to affect financial spreads and real economic activity, through its effect on the banking system's reserves (balance sheet channel) and the price of safe liquid assets (intertemporal Euler equation channel). It is shown to provide, (i) determinacy when the interest rate is fixed to zero, through the intertemporal Euler equation channel, independently of the reserves-to-deposits ratio, or bank capital restrictions; (ii) similar welfare improvements to an optimal Taylor rule; (iii) an alternative main monetary policy tool for driving the economy out of recessions when the conventional interest rate is trapped at the zero-lower-bound.","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115318688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Predicting Recession Probabilities Using Term Spreads: New Evidence from a Machine Learning Approach 使用期限差预测衰退概率:来自机器学习方法的新证据
ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3723717
Jaehyuk Choi, Desheng Ge, K. Kang, S. Sohn
{"title":"Predicting Recession Probabilities Using Term Spreads: New Evidence from a Machine Learning Approach","authors":"Jaehyuk Choi, Desheng Ge, K. Kang, S. Sohn","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3723717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3723717","url":null,"abstract":"The literature on using yield curves to forecast recessions typically measures the term spread as the difference between the 10-year and the three-month Treasury rates. Furthermore, using the term spread constrains the long- and short-term interest rates to have the same absolute effect on the recession probability. In this study, we adopt a machine learning method to investigate whether the predictive ability of interest rates can be improved. The machine learning algorithm identifies the best maturity pair, separating the effects of interest rates from those of the term spread. Our comprehensive empirical exercise shows that, despite the likelihood gain, the machine learning approach does not significantly improve the predictive accuracy, owing to the estimation error. Our finding supports the conventional use of the 10-year--three-month Treasury yield spread. This is robust to the forecasting horizon, control variable, sample period, and oversampling of the recession observations.","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134453630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve's Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Computational Linguistics Approach 美联储非常规货币政策的宏观经济效应:一种计算语言学方法
ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-12-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3722329
Pritha Chaudhuri
{"title":"Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve's Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Computational Linguistics Approach","authors":"Pritha Chaudhuri","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3722329","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3722329","url":null,"abstract":"I propose a new approach to estimating the Federal Reserve’s unconventional monetary policy after the Great Recession. During the 2009-2015 U.S. zero lower bound period, the Federal Reserve resorted to unconventional policies like forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases. I quantify these policies by creating an unconventional monetary policy index using computational linguistics and machine learning on the FOMC meeting minutes. This index provides information on how much of the discussion during each meeting was pertaining to the large-scale asset purchase program and forward guidance. A positive shock to this measure can be interpreted as more discussion about this topic in particular meeting. Using such shocks as instruments in a in a factor-augmented vector auto-regression framework, I find that the Fed’s unconventional policy had its desired effects of stimulating the economy, by increasing output and reducing the unemployment rate. I also find significant, albeit less, effects on the financial markets.","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127732534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Friend in Need? The Effect of Institutional Independence on Central Bank Responses to the COVID-19 Crises 患难中的朋友?机构独立性对央行应对COVID-19危机的影响
ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-11-22 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3735512
Ioannis Glinavos
{"title":"A Friend in Need? The Effect of Institutional Independence on Central Bank Responses to the COVID-19 Crises","authors":"Ioannis Glinavos","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3735512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3735512","url":null,"abstract":"The paper investigates whether institutional independence contributes positively to central bank responses to economic emergencies. The paper examines evidence of central bank responses to the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 to investigate correlation between independence and policy responsiveness. We compare ECB, BoE and Fed responses to the economic upheaval caused by the global pandemic with their response to the Financial Crisis of 2008 and evaluate the contribution of institutional independence to addressing economic needs. The paper offers a summary of the nature and role of central banks;explains the idea of institutional independence and its contribution to policy making, offers some background to the economic impacts of the pandemic and positions the role of central banks within wider policy responses. An evaluation of central bank response to date, and the value of independence in articulating that response, contributes to the debate as to the nature, function, and future of central banking. The conclusions of the paper advance the debate on the value of independent institutions within a less accommodating political economy.","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124700887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Housing as a Source of Constraints for the Monetary Policy From Romania 住房作为罗马尼亚货币政策约束的来源
ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-11-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3730984
Ramona Dumitriu, R. Stefanescu
{"title":"The Housing as a Source of Constraints for the Monetary Policy From Romania","authors":"Ramona Dumitriu, R. Stefanescu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3730984","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3730984","url":null,"abstract":"The housing market could interact with the monetary policy in several ways. This paper approaches the situation of Romania where the national currency depreciation or the interest rates raise provoked, in the past, virulent reactions of the mortgage debtors. In these circumstances, the central bank has to take into consideration, when deciding, the potential impact on housing market.","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"102 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127933451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tax Compliance, Payment Choice, and Central Bank Digital Currency 税务合规,支付选择和中央银行数字货币
ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3755573
Zijian Wang
{"title":"Tax Compliance, Payment Choice, and Central Bank Digital Currency","authors":"Zijian Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3755573","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3755573","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the implications of tax evasion for the optimal design of central bank digital currency (CBDC). I build a general equilibrium framework to explicitly allow tax evasion by agents and tax audits by a government. I find that as long as CBDC offers less anonymity than cash, introducing CBDC will decrease tax evasion. However, if CBDC is \"cash-like\" in the sense that it still offers relatively high level of anonymity but low interest rate, then introducing CBDC will decrease the output from not only agents who evade taxes but also agents who report their income truthfully. If CBDC is instead \"deposit-like\" in the sense that it offers low anonymity but high interest rate, then introducing CBDC will increase output and aggregate welfare. Furthermore, introducing deposit-like CBDC needs not increase the funding costs of private banks or decrease bank lending and investment. However, paying a high interest rate on CBDC will decrease the central bank's net interest revenue, which may jeopardize the central bank's independence.","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114181216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
Driving Through the Roadblocks: A Case for a More Proactive Approach to CBDC from Canada's Central Bank 穿越路障:加拿大中央银行对CBDC采取更积极措施的案例
ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-10-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3722676
Cameron Teschuk
{"title":"Driving Through the Roadblocks: A Case for a More Proactive Approach to CBDC from Canada's Central Bank","authors":"Cameron Teschuk","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3722676","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3722676","url":null,"abstract":"Central banks are not there to ‘put the brake on innovation just for the sake of it’, but to ensure that implications of major changes are well understood so that ‘innovations set the right course for the economy, for business, for citizens, for society as whole.<br><br>This sentiment from the European Central Bank’s Director of General Market Infrastructures and Payments, Ulrich Bindseil, is in reference to the challenges faced by central banks in responding to the emergence of digital currencies. Bindseil’s commentary partially references a 2019 speech from the Bank of International Settlements General Manager Agustin Cartens. Bindsel, however, noticeably omits a portion of Cartens initial quote. Cartens original quote reads, “central banks do not put a brake on innovations just for the sake of it. But neither should they speed ahead disregarding all traffic conditions.”<br><br>This distinction highlights the question that economists across the world are asking themselves: How should central banks respond to the emergence of digital currency? Borrowing on Cartens’ traffic metaphor, should central banks pull over and let the private sector continue on the digital currency highway alone? Or should they speed ahead through the “traffic conditions” and develop their own central bank issued digital currency (commonly known as “CBDC”). A third option has also emerged, one that has been adopted by the Bank of Canada, which is to drive parallel to the highway waiting for the right time to merge. <br><br>The appropriate response depends on each central bank’s perspective on the potential impact of digital currency on their domestic financial system. At risk of overusing the traffic metaphor, the question becomes, are digital currencies an innovative means of filling the potholes in the current payments system? Or are they a paradigm shift that will lead cars to a new highway?","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"109 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114612093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fire Sales, the LOLR and Bank Runs With Continuous Asset Liquidity 资产流动性持续的贱卖、LOLR和银行挤兑
ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-10-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3716524
U. Bindseil, Edoardo Lanari
{"title":"Fire Sales, the LOLR and Bank Runs With Continuous Asset Liquidity","authors":"U. Bindseil, Edoardo Lanari","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3716524","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3716524","url":null,"abstract":"Bank's asset fire sales and recourse to central bank credit are modelled with continuous asset liquidity, allowing to derive the liability structure of a bank. Both asset sales liquidity and the central bank collateral framework are modeled as power functions within the unit interval. Funding stability is captured as a strategic bank run game in pure strategies between depositors. Fire sale liquidity and the central bank collateral framework determine jointly the ability of the banking system to deliver maturity transformation without endangering financial stability. The model also explains why banks tend to use the least liquid eligible collateral with the central bank and why a sudden non-anticipated reduction of asset liquidity, or a tightening of the collateral framework, can trigger a bank run. The model also shows that the collateral framework can be understood, beyond its aim to protect the central bank, as financial stability and non-conventional monetary policy instrument.","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126264021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Central Banks and Climate Change 中央银行和气候变化
ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3703142
Christina Parajon Skinner
{"title":"Central Banks and Climate Change","authors":"Christina Parajon Skinner","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3703142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3703142","url":null,"abstract":"Central banks are increasingly called upon to address climate change. Proposals for central bank action on climate change range from programs of “green” quantitative easing, to increases in risk-based capital requirements to deter banks from lending to climate-unfriendly business. Politicians and academics alike have urged climate risk as both macroeconomic and financial stability risk. Nevertheless, in the U.S., the Federal Reserve has been measured in its response to climate change. \u0000 \u0000This article considers the scope of the Fed’s policy and legal authority to address climate change. Drawing on insights from corporate finance and macroeconomics, the article first considers how climate risk presents risks that are policy problems for the Fed. From that policy basis, the article constructs a legal framework — stitching together a variety of Fed laws, regulations, and precedents of practice — to discern where the Fed can legitimately move forward on climate change and the areas that, at present, sit outside the Fed’s legal remit. \u0000 \u0000The article concludes that the Fed’s authority to address climate change is strongest in a responsive posture — that is, to respond to climate-related economic shocks and to tailor supervision to better account for encroaching operational risks and asset-quality deterioration. However, the Fed lacks a solid legal basis for seeking to proactively make the financial system greener. Ultimately, the article prompts some reflection on the ideal role of the Fed vis-a-vis the fiscal authority of the Treasury, the political actors in Congress, and the Executive.","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134158694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 27
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