International Economics最新文献

{"title":"Unravelling the impact of political risk on industrialization: Evidence from Africa","authors":"Hervé Kaffo Fotio ,&nbsp;Abdoul Karim","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100528","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100528","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Despite the growing concern about the economic costs of political risk, relatively little is known about its effect on industrialization. This paper fills the knowledge gap by investigating the impact of political risk on industrialization and relative transmission mechanisms using data from 34 African countries over the 2000–2019 period. Findings from Driscoll and Kraay (1998), system GMM, and quantile regressions show that political risk has a direct negative impact on industrialization. When considering the sub-dimensions of political risk, results show that the increase in government risk, internal and external conflict risk, military politics risk, ethnic tensions risk, investment profile risk, corruption risk, bureaucratic quality risk, and socioeconomic risk adversely affect industrialization. Further, the mediation analysis reveals that political risk does not only have a direct effect on industrialization but also an indirect impact through its adverse effects on financial integration, financial development, and internet penetration. Finally, the net impact is negative and suggests that political risk hinders Africa's industrialization.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 100528"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141540013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Erratum to “Remittances, financial development, and income inequality: A panel quantile regression approach” [Int. Econ. 175 (2023) 171-186]","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100529","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100529","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 100529"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701724000520/pdfft?md5=297011acc7b78fc7a9434e7ba2c6c373&pid=1-s2.0-S2110701724000520-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141573130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The equally weighted portfolio still remains a challenging benchmark","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100525","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100525","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This research replicates the paper “Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1/N Portfolio Strategy?”, DeMiguel et al. (2009b). Similar to the referring paper, working in the mean–variance context, we compare the out-of-sample performance of the same investment strategies on the basis of standard metrics (Sharpe ratio, certainty equivalent and turnover). We consider proportional transaction costs and estimation rolling windows of limited length. Our study updates the original paper for many interesting aspects. First, to exclude that the empirical evidence of DeMiguel et al. (2009b), whose data stopped in 2004, could depend on very specific market behavior, we use an updated version of the original databases that contains the returns of the last 20 years. Recent data are characterized by a few severe systemic events, the 2008 global financial crisis and the shock related to the pandemic, and a generally higher level of price volatility than the previous periods. In our opinion, this variation in the market’s conditions makes the replication very interesting. Second, we introduce the Equally Risk Contribution (ERC) portfolio within the allocation strategies under comparison. This allocation rule is strictly related to the mean–variance approach when the variance is used as the referring risk measure and it constitutes a very interesting alternative investment benchmark. Moreover, using real data, we study whether a variation of the holding period or the length of the estimation window can modify the performance of all the strategies under comparison. Our findings confirm the results of DeMiguel et al. (2009b), i.e. that the equally weighted portfolio still remains a challenging benchmark to beat. Nevertheless, we find a few significant differences: the number of strategies that outperform naive diversification is larger due to the increased market volatility; limiting the impact of transaction costs by investing in a portfolio with a stable allocation as the ERC, or modifying the lengths of the estimation window and the holding period, is not sufficient to beat naive diversification systematically.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 100525"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701724000489/pdfft?md5=a20cc53ea1cfe2dde7b02370da4f61fa&pid=1-s2.0-S2110701724000489-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141501460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Money demand stability: New evidence from transfer entropy","authors":"Hadi Movaghari ,&nbsp;Apostolos Serletis ,&nbsp;Georgios Sermpinis","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100524","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100524","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper revisits the empirical relationship between interest rates and money demand from a novel perspective, i.e., information theory. Particularly, we utilize the model-free transfer entropy to quantify the flow of information from interest rates to monetary aggregates and present three findings. First, we document a hump-shaped informational link between interest rate and M1 monetary aggregate, with a rounded high point in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Second, we identify three structural shifts in the information transmission from interest rate to M1. The first two breakpoints occurred in the early 1980s and mid-1990s, likely as a response to the removal of Regulation Q and the introduction of sweep technology, respectively. The third shift took place during the relatively less-explored period of the early 2000s. Finally, we unravel a previously unreported pivotal distinction between the first two changepoints despite the apparent similarity in inducing money demand instability: the 1980s financial deregulations facilitate the transmission of information, whereas the 1990s financial reforms acted as an impediment to the information flow. Our results are robust to alternative entropy measures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 100524"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701724000477/pdfft?md5=3b12f1208186885d8c990808ad53786c&pid=1-s2.0-S2110701724000477-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141444120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Political uncertainty and macro-financial dynamics in the BRICS","authors":"Fredj Jawadi ,&nbsp;Thierry M. Pondie","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100523","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100523","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We empirically study the impact of political uncertainty on macro-financial variables (stock prices, inflation, consumption) and behavioral dynamics (consumer confidence, anxiety) in the BRICS over the period 1990–2022. To this end, we applied a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model that tests further endogenous interactions between the variables in the model. Accordingly, we find that political uncertainty increases inflation while reducing consumer spending and stock prices. In addition, we find that consumer confidence and investor anxiety are negatively affected by political uncertainty. Our results have different implications, especially for policymakers who have to tackle political uncertainty in order to protect householders and investors more effectively.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 100523"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141638817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How interstate soft conflicts affect bilateral migration: Results from a structural gravity model","authors":"Tamar Taralashvili","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100522","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100522","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study aims to empirically examine the impact of interstate soft conflicts on bilateral migration. Interstate soft conflicts that arise when diplomacy fails and a military operation seems too extreme may act as a policy tool and have a negative effect on bilateral relations. The empirical approach uses balanced panel data with annual observations and a theory-consistent structural gravity model of migration, augmented by a new measure of interstate soft conflict. The findings suggest that interstate soft conflicts have a lasting adverse effect on migration, regardless of the control for omitted variables (presence of regional trade agreements, various types of sanctions, the state acts, and militarized interstate disputes) and different model specifications. More specifically, these conflicts result in an average reduction of about 23.35% in bilateral migration. After accounting for the time delay in the effect and addressing reverse causality, the findings suggest that interstate soft conflicts may exert a prolonged (the effect disappears after three years) adverse impact on bilateral migration flows, causing a reduction of approximately 34.22%. Therefore, the study’s findings not only illuminate the complex relationship between soft conflicts and migration but also underscore their significant implications. These insights are valuable for policymakers and researchers, providing a solid foundation for informed decision-making and further exploring this complex issue.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 100522"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701724000453/pdfft?md5=58b8cec5f6220c9d2fe02ef1d7c715bf&pid=1-s2.0-S2110701724000453-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141400751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinants of India's cotton export performance: An empirical analysis","authors":"Alok Kumar Yadav,&nbsp;Utpal Chattopadhyay","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100521","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100521","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Cotton export performance plays a critical role in bridging the gaps in India's soaring trade deficits and helps in maximizing the overall gains from international trade. We examine the impact of macroeconomic determinants on India's cotton export performance using data from 1990 to 2020. To assess the long-run and short-run impacts on cotton export performance, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model has been deployed. The findings reveal that yield and export price have had statistically positive significant impact on India's cotton export performance over the long-run and short-run. However, the resulting estimates of market size and exchange rate do have a mixed effect on cotton export performance over the period. Moreover, our results offer some important policy implications for the stakeholders including the farmers, exporters, and government to enhance Agri-product competitiveness.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 100521"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141391964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"It's a match! Linking foreign counterparts in Italian customs data to their balance sheets","authors":"Marta Crispino,&nbsp;Francesco Paolo Conteduca","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100511","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100511","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper describes the methodology underlying the matching between extra-EU counterparts in the Italian Customs and Monopolies Agency data with firms in the Bureau van Dijk Orbis database. Through different validation exercises, we show that the matches stemming from our proposed procedure are largely correct regarding both records and transaction values. The resulting corresponding tables can serve as a useful tool to shed light on the features of the counterparts of Italian firms active in international trade.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 100511"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141131260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Internationalization and financial constraints: Opportunities, obstacles, and strategies","authors":"G. Falavigna ,&nbsp;V. Giannini ,&nbsp;R. Ippoliti","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100510","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100510","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study delves into the relationship between financial constraints and internationalization, investigating the role and extent of variability in access to the capital market in shaping internationalization strategic choices. In detail, focusing on the Italian manufacturing industry between 2013 and 2019, we examine this relation disentangling the effect between export and import dynamics. Initially, we run various OLS regression models to investigate the profile of exporting/importing firms, providing a preliminary picture of the internationalization process of the Italian manufacturing industry. Then, we run several GMM regression models to highlight these dynamics over time and to collect robust evidence for our hypotheses. According to the results, we observe that firms under high financial constraints have the lowest intensity of import and export flows (i), firms under moderate financial constraints have the highest intensity of export flows (ii), and firms under low financial constraints have the highest intensity of import flows (iii). An interpretation of these results concerns the heterogeneity of business-to-business payment dynamics across the EU global value chain, with the Italian market characterized by the longest delay. Hence, internationalization through export flows represents an opportunity for those companies with the most aggressive business strategies, quickly raising their internal liquidity, and complementing local financial debts with international trade credits. On the other hand, only firms with no restrictions to the capital market can afford prompt payments of foreign suppliers, easily collecting the necessary liquidity to support import flows.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 100510"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701724000337/pdfft?md5=ea0a8ab56b261042d4b1b8944acf883e&pid=1-s2.0-S2110701724000337-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141090697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic globalisation and Africa's quest for greener and more inclusive growth: The missing link","authors":"Isaac K. Ofori ,&nbsp;Andreas Freytag ,&nbsp;Simplice A. Asongu","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100509","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100509","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the contingency and threshold effects of economic freedom in the economic globalisation (EG) and inclusive green growth (IGG) relationship. To this end, we apply the fixed-effects generalized method of moments with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors estimator to macro data for the period 2008–2020 for 22 selected African countries. The following findings are established. First, we find that economic freedom reduces the negative effect of EG on IGG. Second, when we disaggregate EG into financial and trade globalisation, we show that the moderating effect of economic freedom on the former is rather striking. Third, our threshold analysis suggests that by improving Africa's unfree economic architecture to 60% (moderately free), the IGG-deteriorating marginal effects of EG are significantly mitigated (but not nullified). We conclude that unless an effort is made to improve economic freedom in Africa, the envisaged IGG gains of economic globalisation might prove elusive.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 100509"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701724000325/pdfft?md5=5a2da75095081700dc08df636a79e0a9&pid=1-s2.0-S2110701724000325-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141031942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}