{"title":"The firm-level costs of utilizing free trade agreements","authors":"Stefan Legge , Piotr Lukaszuk","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100484","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100484","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The number of free trade agreements (FTAs) has surged in recent years. In order to benefit from lower import duties, firms must apply for preferential customs treatment and comply with rules of origin requirements. This is costly and explains why preference utilization rates are typically far below 100 percent. Analyzing Switzerland’s wide FTA network based on a novel data set on all import transactions, our findings shed light on how sourcing requirements affect FTA utilization. Using a revealed preference criterion, we identify a fixed cost component of the utilization which firms avoid especially for urgent shipments. We also find limited evidence of learning effects and provide well-identified estimates of the restrictive effects of rules of origin.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 100484"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140025613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Drivers of fiscal sustainability: A time-varying analysis for Portugal","authors":"António Afonso , José Carlos Coelho","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100486","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100486","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We assess the drivers of fiscal sustainability in Portugal during the period 1999Q4-2021Q4. We resort to expanding window and Schlicht (2003, 2021)'s time-varying approaches to construct the responses of government revenues to government expenditures and the responses of the primary government balance and the cyclically adjusted primary government balance (CAPB) to the debt-to-GDP ratio. Our results show the prevalence of a Ricardian fiscal regime in Portugal. If the differential between the implicit interest rate of the nominal stock of public debt and the nominal growth rate of GDP is positive, the positive response of the primary government balance to the debt-to-GDP ratio is amplified. An improvement in the external accounts, the increase in the European Commission's fiscal rules index and the extension of the debt maturity were beneficial for fiscal sustainability. Sovereign debt rating downgrades implied a posterior fiscal reaction that improves fiscal sustainability. Moreover, fiscal sustainability increased during the implementation of the international financial assistance program to Portugal, between 2011Q2 and 2014Q2.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 100486"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S211070172400009X/pdfft?md5=c5a6c67389444350f7e2fab009d8bb62&pid=1-s2.0-S211070172400009X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140000320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal","authors":"Hugo Morão","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100481","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100481","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper investigates the effects of policy uncertainty on major macroeconomic variables in Portugal, employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach. I develop an Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index utilizing data from over twenty news sources, which captures key moments such as elections, budget negotiations, and various crises. In response to a rise in policy uncertainty, firms delay projects, leading to a decline in industrial output and a rise in unemployment. Consumers, in turn, reduce their non-essential spending, resulting in a gradual decline in retail sales. On the financial side, rising policy uncertainty drives down equity prices and widens credit spreads, reflecting the concerns of investors and lenders.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 100481"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701724000040/pdfft?md5=716acf0239f5f434bbeed70027a3a52c&pid=1-s2.0-S2110701724000040-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139914462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Impacts of remittances from internal and international migrants on poverty and inequality in Mali","authors":"Issiaka Coulibaly , Moustapha Dembélé","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100482","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100482","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper aims at assessing the impact of remittances from internal and international migrants on the level of poverty and inequality in Mali. The estimation results show that, at the national level, international remittances and their combination with internal remittances are associated with a decline in all poverty indicators (incidence, depth, and severity of poverty) in contrast with internal remittances only which reduce the severity of poverty but lead to an increase in the incidence and the depth of poverty. All these categories of remittances considered exert a negative effect on all poverty indicators in rural areas, while internal remittances tend to exacerbate poverty and inequalities in urban areas. The analysis of more relevant indicators for measuring the level of inequality, in this case the Gini coefficients and expenditure percentiles for the various counterfactuals, shows that remittances have an equalizing effect on the distribution of consumption expenditure per capita, on the one hand, and that this effect is driven more by internal remittances, on the other hand. This last result is essentially explained by the fact that populations in urban areas, because of their attachment to their locality of origin, ration their income to meet the needs of their families who have remained in rural areas.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 100482"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139830770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sivanildo José de Almeida, Fernanda Esperidião, Fábio Rodrigues de Moura
{"title":"The impact of institutions on economic growth: Evidence for advanced economies and Latin America and the Caribbean using a panel VAR approach","authors":"Sivanildo José de Almeida, Fernanda Esperidião, Fábio Rodrigues de Moura","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100480","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100480","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study aims to empirically investigate the impact of institutions on economic growth in advanced economies and in Latin America and the Caribbean. We use a Panel Vector Autoregressive Model (PVAR) for 42 countries from 1970 to 2019 and estimate orthogonalized impulse-response functions to assess the impact of political and economic institutions on the growth rate of gross domestic product per capita. We also control for gross capital formation and trade openness. Our results indicate that the average growth rate responds positively to exogenous shocks in institutional performance, and the response to shocks in political institutions is higher in Latin America and the Caribbean than in advanced economies. Also, in Latin America and the Caribbean, shocks to economic growth can reduce the quality of political institutions, signaling a vicious circle of institutions. Furthermore, we find evidence of unidirectional Granger causality running from economic growth to political institutions in Latin America and the Caribbean and bidirectional Granger causality from economic institutions to the growth rate in both groups. Therefore, improvements in the institutional environment provide better economic performance, and these effects change according to the income level of economies. Thus, policymakers who aim to stimulate economic growth, especially in emerging economies, must improve the main components that determine the institutional environment and strengthen democratic foundations, such as political and property rights, regulatory systems, and commercial and financial openness, among others.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 100480"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139829979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sivanildo Jose de Almeida, Fernanda Esperidião, Fabio Rodrigues de Moura
{"title":"The impact of institutions on economic growth: Evidence for advanced economies and Latin America and the Caribbean using a panel VAR approach","authors":"Sivanildo Jose de Almeida, Fernanda Esperidião, Fabio Rodrigues de Moura","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100480","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100480","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"4 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139889708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Impacts of remittances from internal and international migrants on poverty and inequality in Mali","authors":"Issiaka Coulibaly, Moustapha Dembele","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100482","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100482","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"49 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139890459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Is gold a safe haven for the U.S. dollar during extreme conditions?","authors":"Asil Azimli","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100478","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100478","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper examines whether gold can act as a hedge/safe-haven asset for the U.S. dollar exchange rate risk against a broad range of currencies. Findings imply the important exchange rate hedging role of gold. Moreover, gold acts as a safe-haven asset during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war for some exchange rate pairs examined. Analysis of gold-currency portfolios reveals that including an optimized amount of gold reduces portfolio variance during the COVID period but produces mixed findings during the war. These findings are robust against additional tests accounting for different holding periods for gold and asymmetries in the relationship between gold and exchange rate returns. Our results offer important implications for international investors and policymakers concerned with the U.S. dollar's exchange rate risk.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 100478"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139461213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does financial inclusion enhance per capita income in the least developed countries?","authors":"António Afonso , M. Carmen Blanco-Arana","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100479","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100479","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Financial inclusion is a key factor for economic growth in most developing countries. This paper examines the relationship between financial inclusion and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) using panel data for the period 1990–2021. The empirical evidence suggests that financial inclusion is indeed related to economic growth in the LDCs. We consider different dimensions of financial inclusion: usability (% of bank credit to bank deposits), accessibility (commercial bank branches), concentration (% of concentration of banks), and availability (depositors with commercial banks) to determine which has a greater effect on economic growth in the countries analyzed. Therefore, we assess which dimensions of financial inclusion are a better tool to improve the economic situation in the poorest countries in the world. While we conclude that all dimensions of financial inclusion have a positive effect on economic growth, in the expected direction, we find that not all dimensions affect economic growth similarly. The dimensions ‘accessibility’ and ‘concentration’ are robustly associated with economic growth, while ‘usability’ and ‘availability’ produce a significant but relatively lesser effect in the LDCs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 100479"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139487861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}