{"title":"A Robust Test for OLS Trends in Daily Temperature Data","authors":"Jamal Munshi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2631298","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2631298","url":null,"abstract":"Trends in time series data estimated with OLS linear regression may be tested with a robust procedure that is less sensitive to influential observations and violations of regression assumptions. The test consists of comparing the average age of data tritiles. If the higher tritiles are newer a rising trend is indicated for the sample period. If the higher tritiles are older a declining trend is indicated. If neither of these conditions is met, no sustained trend in the sample period may be inferred from the data. Daily temperature data from selected USHCN and USCRN stations are used to demonstrate the utility of the proposed methodology.","PeriodicalId":135089,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Carbon Reduction (Topic)","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126403895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Putting Information into Action: What Explains Follow-Up on Home Energy Audits?","authors":"K. Palmer, M. Walls, Lucy O’Keeffe","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2630120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2630120","url":null,"abstract":"Consumers often invest in information when faced with choices that have uncertain payoffs. Homeowners considering improvements or retrofits in order to lower their energy bills may decide to have a home energy audit, a professional assessment that identifies where a home is losing energy and recommends improvements that will lower energy use and costs. Follow-up on audit recommendations varies widely across households. We explore the reasons for these differences using data from a multistate survey of over 500 homeowners who have had energy audits. Our findings suggest that two sets of factors are important in explaining audit follow-up: factors related to the costs of retrofits and those related to the features and quality of the audits. Our findings have implications for policies to encourage the use of audits and suggest that the quality of the information and how it is delivered have important consequences for the role of audits in reducing energy consumption.","PeriodicalId":135089,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Carbon Reduction (Topic)","volume":"89 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125394239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Evaluating Multiple Emission Pathways for a Fixed Cumulative CO2 Emission from Socioeconomic Perspectives","authors":"Ken’ichi Matsumoto, K. Tachiiri, M. Kawamiya","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2621631","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2621631","url":null,"abstract":"Cumulative CO2 emission is a good indicator for climate stabilization. It has recently been used in socioeconomic research dealing with climate mitigation. However, previous studies do not focus on the socioeconomic impacts of choosing different emission pathways under fixed cumulative CO2 emissions. Such effects are important, since our capacity to reduce emissions may vary each year — thus affecting our policy choices. We develop five emission pathways based on a fixed cumulative CO2 emission (i.e., 812 GtC for this century). All pathways start declining emissions from the reference level in 2040 to attain zero by 2100. We determine the socioeconomic impacts for these pathways using a computable general equilibrium model. Our research indicates that the smaller the emissions, the higher the carbon prices each year. Differences in the global gross domestic product (GDP) among the pathways were less than 4% by 2090, while the differences in the cumulative GDP in terms of net present values were less than 0.1% (with a discount rate of 5%). Thus, there was limited dependence of GDP on pathway. The differences in the global primary energy demand among the pathways were more noticeable, although the largest difference in the cumulative demand was 4%.","PeriodicalId":135089,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Carbon Reduction (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122273290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"What Do We Learn from Public Good Games About Voluntary Climate Action? Evidence from an Artefactual Field Experiment","authors":"T. Goeschl, S. E. Kettner, J. Lohse, C. Schwieren","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2620229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2620229","url":null,"abstract":"Evidence from public good game experiments holds the promise of instructive and cost-effective insights to inform environmental policy-making, for example on climate change mitigation. To fulfill the promise, such evidence needs to demonstrate generalizability to the specific policy context. This paper examines whether and under which conditions such evidence generalizes to voluntary mitigation decisions. We observe each participant in two different decision tasks: a real giving task in which contributions are used to directly reduce CO2 emissions and a public good game. Through two treatment variations, we explore two potential shifters of generalizability in a within-subjects design: the structural resemblance of contribution incentives between the tasks and the role of the subject pool, students and non-students. Our findings suggest that cooperation in public good games is linked to voluntary mitigation behavior, albeit not in a uniform way. For a standard set of parameters, behavior in both tasks is uncorrelated. Greater structural resemblance of the public goods game leads to sizable correlations, especially for student subjects.","PeriodicalId":135089,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Carbon Reduction (Topic)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129628765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Whose 'Loss and Damage'? Promoting the Agency of Beneficiary States","authors":"B. Mayer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2493643","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2493643","url":null,"abstract":"The discussions on loss and damage associated with climate change that opened up within the unfccc in recent years constitute the latest attempt of developing states to obtain something akin to compensation from major greenhouse gas emitters for the adverse social impacts of climate change. These discussions generally contemplate a mechanism financed by developed states that would provide direct support to individuals, corporations, and governments in developing countries (‘vertical’ approach), for instance, through insurance. This article argues that, for practical as well as normative reasons, a loss-and-damage mechanism should instead support vulnerable developing states, in a states-to-states ‘horizontal’ approach. Accordingly, financial support would be provided to developing states that incorporate vulnerable populations and are responsible for protecting them. Three sets of arguments are developed in support of this proposition. First, attributing loss and damage at the individual level is particularly challenging, whereas horizontal approaches allow consideration of probabilistic harm and compensation through bundle payments. Second, horizontal approaches are more suitable for pursuing goals such as economic efficiency, the reduction of loss and damage, the creation of an incentive for climate change mitigation, and broader goals of social justice. Third, vertical approaches go against prevailing principles of international law and involve unjustified interference in the domestic affairs of developing states.","PeriodicalId":135089,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Carbon Reduction (Topic)","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125173332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Drivers of Long-Run CO2 Emissions: A Global Perspective Since 1800","authors":"SofiaTeives Henriques, K. Borowiecki","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2486501","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2486501","url":null,"abstract":"Fossil-fuel-related carbon dioxide emissions have risen dramatically since 1800. We identify the long-run drivers of CO2 emissions for a sample of twelve developed economies using an extended Kaya decomposition. By considering biomass and carbon-free energy sources along with fossil fuels we are able to shed light on the effects of past and present energy transitions on CO2 emissions. We find that at low levels of income per capita, fuel switching from biomass to fossil fuels is the main contributing factor to emission growth. Scale effects, especially income effects, become the most important emission drivers at higher levels of income and also dominate the overall long-run change. Technological change is the main offsetting factor. Particularly in the last decades, technological change and fuel switching have become important contributors to the decrease in emissions in Europe. Our results also individualize the different CO2 historical paths across parts of Europe, North America and Japan.","PeriodicalId":135089,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Carbon Reduction (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129335380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Addressing Climate Change Without Legislation - Volume 3: USDA","authors":"Romany M. Webb, Steven Weissman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2599749","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2599749","url":null,"abstract":"The agricultural industry is currently the fifth largest source of greenhouse gases in the U.S., contributing over eight percent of national emissions in 2012. Reducing the industry’s greenhouse gas emissions will therefore be important to avoid significant temperature increases and other climatic changes in future years. The extent of future climate change can be further minimized by enhancing carbon sequestration on agricultural and forest lands. These lands currently absorb approximately thirteen percent of annual greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S., but have the capacity to absorb up to twenty five percent of annual emissions. As the federal agency overseeing the agricultural and forestry sectors, the U.S. Department of Agriculture can play an important role in mitigating climate change. The Department has already acted to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural activities and increase carbon sequestration on agricultural lands. However, its work is far from complete. This report identifies additional actions the Department can take, under existing law, to reduce emissions and increase sequestration.","PeriodicalId":135089,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Carbon Reduction (Topic)","volume":"52 17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124619264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Carbon Policy in a High-Growth Economy: The Case of China","authors":"L. Bretschger, Lin Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2466370","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2466370","url":null,"abstract":"There is widespread concern that an international agreement on stringent climate policies will not be reached because it would imply too high costs for fast growing economies like China. To quantify these costs we develop a general equilibrium model with fully endogenous growth. The framework includes disaggregated industrial and energy sectors, endogenous innovation, and sector-specific investments. We find that the implementation of Chinese government carbon policies until 2020 causes a welfare reduction of 0.3 percent. For the long run up to 2050 we show that welfare costs of internationally coordinated emission reduction targets lie between 3 and 8 percent. Assuming faster energy technology development, stronger induced innovation, and rising energy prices in the reference case reduces welfare losses significantly. We argue that increased urbanization raises the costs of carbon policies due to altered consumption patterns.","PeriodicalId":135089,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Carbon Reduction (Topic)","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122612705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Negotiating Weights for Burden Sharing Rules Among Heterogeneous Parties: Empirical Evidence from a Survey Among Delegates in International Climate Negotiations","authors":"Martin Kesternich, A. Löschel, Andreas Ziegler","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2436936","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2436936","url":null,"abstract":"Given the vital and controversial debate on fairness concerns in international climate negotiations, the acceptance of a climate treaty may be fostered if the distribution of costs and benefits from global environmental protection is perceived to be “fair”. Since an agreement must be acceptable to all negotiating countries, it is likely that no single burden sharing concept will gain unconditional support from all parties. We have conducted a world-wide survey among participants in international climate negotiations to address the question whether negotiating weights for different fairness concepts may enlarge the bargaining space among heterogeneous agents and overcome the currently dominating self-interested use of fairness claims. Even though our empirical results confirm different positions on burden sharing among key regions, there is evidence that a broad majority favors allocations that are based on a variety of fairness rules. Turning the debate rather towards justice claims based on needs than towards culpability may serve as a fruitful starting point to depart from a purely egoistic use of equity rules in international climate negotiations.","PeriodicalId":135089,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Carbon Reduction (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114408533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fanny Henriet, Nicolas Maggiar, Katheline Schubert
{"title":"A Stylized Applied Energy-Economy Model for France","authors":"Fanny Henriet, Nicolas Maggiar, Katheline Schubert","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2414373","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2414373","url":null,"abstract":"We build, calibrate and simulate a stylized energy-economy model designed to evaluate the magnitude of carbon tax that would allow the French economy to reduce by a factor of four its CO2 emissions at a forty-year horizon. We estimate the substitution possibilities between fossil energy and other factors for households and firms. We build two versions of the model, the first with exogenous technical progress, and the second with an endogenization of the direction of technical progress. We show that if the energy-saving technical progress rate remains at its recent historical value, the magnitude of the carbon tax is quite unrealistic. When the direction of technical progress responds endogenously to economic incentives, CO2 emissions can be reduced by more than that allowed by the substitution possibilities, but not by a factor of four. To achieve this, an additional instrument is needed, namely a subsidy to fossil energy-saving research. The redirection of technical progress, which is a driver of energy transition, comes at a small cost in terms of the overall growth rate of the economy.","PeriodicalId":135089,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Carbon Reduction (Topic)","volume":"141 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121323184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}