{"title":"Should Management Earnings Guidance be Pooled? Classifying Management Earnings Guidance into Capital Market, Opportunistic, and Disclose or Abstain Rationales: Implications for Research","authors":"E. Li, Charles E. Wasley, J. Zimmerman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1978968","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1978968","url":null,"abstract":"Prior studies identify several motives for why firms release management earnings forecasts (MFs). A common feature of such studies is they pool MFs when drawing inferences about a specific motive. By ignoring the heterogeneous rationales managers have to issue MFs, pooling could lead to biased inferences. To address the issue, we develop an approach that classifies MFs into one of the three rationales: capital market incentives, compliance with Rule 10b-5 to disclose material nonpublic information or abstain from trading, or managerial opportunism. Our classification scheme indicates that 65% of MFs are released for capital market incentives, 22% are issued to comply with Rule 10b-5, and 13% are opportunistic. Four sets of empirical tests provide construct validity for the classification scheme. Such tests include replications of earlier studies where we find that our MF classification scheme increases power and changes prior inferences regarding MFs. Classifying MFs into our three categories will aid future researchers in constructing better specified and more powerful tests of the economic determinants and consequences of management's decision to issue MFs.","PeriodicalId":130859,"journal":{"name":"Baruch College Zicklin School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126035849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Pricing of Firm Specific Jump Risk","authors":"Marius Ascheberg, H. Kraft, Yildiray Yildirim","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2148239","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2148239","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the relationship between the cross section of stock returns and firm specific jump risk. Using option data, we estimate various option-based time-series. Sorting firms according to their firm specific jump risk, we find that this risk is priced for small stocks. Furthermore, we show that it is genuinely idiosyncratic, and not related to systematic volatility or systematic jump risk. We also find that firms have similar exposures to upward and downward jumps and both jumps are negatively priced, but the effect is more pronounce for downward jumps. Besides, it is documented that our results are closely linked to the idiosyncratic volatility (ivol) anomaly by Ang et al. (2006). Therefore, if ivol proxies for an omitted factor, our results suggest that the exposure to idiosyncratic jump risk is related to this factor.","PeriodicalId":130859,"journal":{"name":"Baruch College Zicklin School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"114 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117203102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Tracking Variation in Systemic Risk at Us Banks During 1974-2013","authors":"Armen Hovakimian, E. Kane, L. Laeven","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2642852","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2642852","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a theoretically based and easy-to-implement way to measure the systemic risk of financial institutions using publicly available accounting and stock market data. The measure models the credit enhancement taxpayers provide to individual banks in the Merton tradition (1974) as a combination put option for the deep tail of bank losses and a knock-in stop-loss call on bank assets. This model expresses the value of taxpayer loss exposure from a string of defaults as the value of this combination option written on the portfolio of industry assets. The exercise price of the call is the face value of the debt of the entire sector. We conceive of an individual bank’s systemic risk as its contribution to the value of this sector-wide option on the financial safety net. To the extent that authorities are slow to see bank losses or reluctant to exercise the call, the government itself becomes a secondary source of systemic risk. We apply our model to quarterly data over the period 1974-2013. The model indicates that systemic risk reached unprecedented highs during the financial crisis years 2008-2009, and that bank size, leverage, and asset risk are key drivers of systemic risk.","PeriodicalId":130859,"journal":{"name":"Baruch College Zicklin School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123988090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Paquita Y. Davis-Friday, Abraham N. Fried, N. T. Jenkins
{"title":"The Value of Clawbacks","authors":"Paquita Y. Davis-Friday, Abraham N. Fried, N. T. Jenkins","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1866527","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1866527","url":null,"abstract":"We examine whether the adoption of clawback provisions in executive compensation contracts improves the informativeness of accounting information. Contrary to conventional wisdom we find that clawbacks do not lead to improved financial reporting. Specifically, we document a significant decline in the market’s response to earnings surprises after the adoption of both fraud and performance based clawback provisions. In contrast, we find that the market’s reaction to earnings surprises reported by TARP firms after their mandatory clawback adoption is larger than it was in the three years prior to the adoption. In addition, there is evidence that voluntary adopters may be motivated to adopt clawback provisions by the recent occurrence of restatements. Taken together, our results provide a cautionary tale of how some types of clawbacks may produce an unintended consequence in terms of deteriorating the established relation between reported earnings and stock price.","PeriodicalId":130859,"journal":{"name":"Baruch College Zicklin School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131556558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Moderating Effect of Affect on Decision Making in Small and Medium Sized Enterprises","authors":"Seonghee Cho, Rachel S. Shinnar, L. Ziamou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1691103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1691103","url":null,"abstract":"Working within the framework of the Affect Infusion Model (AIM), we use a sample of 351 minority owned, small and medium sized firms, to test whether negative affect is infused into business related decision making. Findings suggest that negative affect has a relationship with business owner’s intent to quit the business. Perceptions of success and satisfaction with the business and the entrepreneur’s personal goals were also related to owner’s intent to quit. Negative affect was found to moderate the relationship between perceived success and satisfaction and the entrepreneur’s personal goals and intent to quit which offer support to the AIM.","PeriodicalId":130859,"journal":{"name":"Baruch College Zicklin School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130525631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Doubly Rare Recession of 2007: Consumer Debt Limit Recession; Balance Sheet Recession","authors":"P. Gutmann","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1429863","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1429863","url":null,"abstract":"The current recession is poorly understood. It is a combination of a very rare consumer debt limit recession and a very rare balance sheet recession. That makes it unique, dangerous and long lasting. It is leading to an extended period of low double digit unemployment that will be very hard to remedy.","PeriodicalId":130859,"journal":{"name":"Baruch College Zicklin School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"176 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120893053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
T. Stober, D. R. Carmichael, Theodore E. Christensen, R. Colson, K. Jamal, Stephen Moehrle, Shivaram Rajgopal, S. Sunder, R. Watts
{"title":"Response to the FASB's Preliminary Views on Financial Instruments with Characteristics of Equity","authors":"T. Stober, D. R. Carmichael, Theodore E. Christensen, R. Colson, K. Jamal, Stephen Moehrle, Shivaram Rajgopal, S. Sunder, R. Watts","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1328591","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1328591","url":null,"abstract":"The Financial Accounting Standards Committee of the American Accounting Association (the Committee) is charged with responding to requests for comments from standard-setters on issues related to financial reporting. The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) recently requested comments on its Preliminary Views on Financial Instruments with Characteristics of Equity (PV). The committee believes that the PV introduces concepts and definitions involving financial statement elements that more properly would be considered at the conceptual framework level. Therefore, the committee respectfully requests that FASB take no further action regarding the proposed standard exposed in the Preliminary Views on Financial Instruments with Characteristics of Equity until the conceptual and definitional issues are resolved at the conceptual framework level.","PeriodicalId":130859,"journal":{"name":"Baruch College Zicklin School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129727385","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Variance Risk Dynamics, Variance Risk Premia, and Optimal Variance Swap Investments","authors":"Markus Leippold, Liuren Wu, Daniel Egloff","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.903728","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.903728","url":null,"abstract":"With increasing appreciation of the fact that stock return variance is stochastic and variance risk is heavily priced, the industry has created a series of variance derivative products to span variance risk. The variance swap contract is the most actively traded of these products. It pays at expiry the difference between the realized return variance and a fixed rate, called the variance swap rate, determined at the inception of the contract. We obtain a decade worth of variance swap rate quotes at five maturities. With the data, we first exploit the information in both the time series and the term structure of the variance swap rates to analyze the return variance rate dynamics and market pricing of variance risk. We then study both theoretically and empirically how investors can use variance swap contracts across different maturities to span the variance risk and to revise their dynamic asset allocation decisions. We find that with the swap contract to span the variance risk, an investor increases her investment in the underlying stock. In addition, the investor's indirect utility increases significantly when allowed to span the volatility risk using variance swap contracts. Finally, an out-of-sample study confirms that the gains from including variance swaps into the portfolio mix are large.","PeriodicalId":130859,"journal":{"name":"Baruch College Zicklin School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115487633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Stochastic Risk Premiums, Stochastic Skewness in Currency Options, and Stochastic Discount Factors in International Economies","authors":"P. Carr, Liuren Wu, G. Bakshi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.720501","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.720501","url":null,"abstract":"We develop models of stochastic discount factors in international economies that produce stochastic risk premiums and stochastic skewness in currency options. We estimate the models using time-series returns and option prices on three currency pairs that form a triangular relation. Estimation shows that the average risk premium in Japan is larger than that in the US or the UK, the global risk premium is more persistent and volatile than the country-specific risk premiums, and investors respond differently to different shocks. We also identify high-frequency jumps in each economy, but find that only downside jumps are priced. Finally, our analysis shows that the risk premiums are economically compatible with movements in stock and bond market fundamentals.","PeriodicalId":130859,"journal":{"name":"Baruch College Zicklin School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116241502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Divergence in Accounting Profitability: Accounting Conservatism, New Firms, and Industry Attributes","authors":"M. Darrough, Jianming Ye","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.939127","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.939127","url":null,"abstract":"Recent empirical research has documented a substantial decrease in average accounting profitability. The phenomenon appears inconsistent with the observation that corporate profit as a fraction of national income as remained stable. This paper shows that the downward trend is fully explicable by a growing profitability gap between large and small firms within many industries, especially those with high R&D intensity. We examine the extent to which the divergence is caused by the entry of new firms to the Compustat database and increasing accounting conservatism, such as R&D expensing and accounting accruals. These effects, however, explain the divergence only partially. We further analyze how the rate of divergence is related to several industry attributes, including the industry average R&D intensity, capital intensity, concentration, and growth. The results have significant implications to understanding accounting conservatism, financial statement analysis, and the economics of industrial organizations.","PeriodicalId":130859,"journal":{"name":"Baruch College Zicklin School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129403554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}