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Lookahead Contraction Policies for Bayesian Ranking and Selection with Pairwise Comparisons 两两比较下贝叶斯排序和选择的前瞻收缩策略
2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004949
L. Priekule, Stephan Meisel
{"title":"Lookahead Contraction Policies for Bayesian Ranking and Selection with Pairwise Comparisons","authors":"L. Priekule, Stephan Meisel","doi":"10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004949","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004949","url":null,"abstract":"We propose and evaluate novel sampling policies for a Bayesian ranking and selection problem with pairwise comparisons. We introduce the lookahead contraction principle and apply it to three types of value factors for lookahead policies. The resulting lookahead contraction policies are analyzed both with the minimal number of lookahead steps required for obtaining informative value factors, and with fixed number of lookahead steps. We show that lookahead contraction reduces the minimal number of required lookahead steps, and that contraction guarantees finiteness of the minimal lookahead. For minimal lookahead we demonstrate empirically that lookahead contraction never leads to worse performance, and that lookahead contraction policies based on expected value of improvement perform best. For fixed lookahead, we show that all lookahead contraction policies eventually outperform their counterparts without contraction, and that contraction results in a performance boost for policies based on predictive probability of improvement.","PeriodicalId":127025,"journal":{"name":"2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131917595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Hybrid Process Mining Framework for Automated Simulation Modelling for Healthcare 用于医疗保健自动化仿真建模的混合流程挖掘框架
2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004800
Mohammed Mesabbah, Waleed Abo-Hamad, Susan Mckeever
{"title":"A Hybrid Process Mining Framework for Automated Simulation Modelling for Healthcare","authors":"Mohammed Mesabbah, Waleed Abo-Hamad, Susan Mckeever","doi":"10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004800","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004800","url":null,"abstract":"Advances in data and process mining algorithms combined with the availability of sophisticated information systems have created an encouraging environment for innovations in simulation modelling. Researchers have investigated the integration between such algorithms and business process modelling to facilitate the automation of building simulation models. These endeavors have resulted in a prototype termed Auto Simulation Model Builder (ASMB) for DES models. However, this prototype has limitations that undermine applying it on complex systems. This paper presents an extension of the ASMB framework previously developed by authors adopted for healthcare systems. The proposed framework offers a comprehensive solution for resources handling to support complex decision-making processes around hospital staff planning. The framework also introduces a machine learning real-time data-driven prediction approach for system performance using advanced activity blocks for the auto-generated model, based on live-streams of patient data. This prediction can be useful for both single and multiple healthcare units management.","PeriodicalId":127025,"journal":{"name":"2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130345192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Introduction To Simio 西米奥简介
2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004692
D. Houck, C. Whitehead
{"title":"Introduction To Simio","authors":"D. Houck, C. Whitehead","doi":"10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004692","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004692","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes the SimioTM modeling system that is designed to simplify model building by promoting a modeling paradigm shift from the process orientation to an object orientation. Simio is a simulation modeling framework based on intelligent objects. The intelligent objects are built by modelers and then may be reused in multiple modeling projects. Although the Simio framework is focused on object-based modeling, it also supports a seamless use of multiple modeling paradigms including event, process, object, systems dynamics, agent-based modeling, and Risk-based Planning and scheduling (RPS).","PeriodicalId":127025,"journal":{"name":"2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115632949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sttar: A Simheuristics-Enabled Scheme for Multi-Stakeholder Coordination Of Aircraft Turnaround Operations 基于相似启发式的飞机周转作业多利益相关者协调方案
2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004787
M. Tomasella, Alexandra Clare, Yagmur S. Gök, Daniel Guimarans, Cemalettin Ozturk
{"title":"Sttar: A Simheuristics-Enabled Scheme for Multi-Stakeholder Coordination Of Aircraft Turnaround Operations","authors":"M. Tomasella, Alexandra Clare, Yagmur S. Gök, Daniel Guimarans, Cemalettin Ozturk","doi":"10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004787","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004787","url":null,"abstract":"Aircraft turnaround operations involve all services to an aircraft (e.g. passenger boarding/disembarking, re-fuelling, deicing) between its arrival and immediately following departure. The aircraft, parked at its stand, witnesses a number of service providers move around it to perform their duties. These companies run substantially independent operations, working for different airlines/flights within a confined area where many resources, including physical space itself, have inescapably to be shared. Inter-dependencies among service providers abound, and knock-on effects at disrupted times are rife. Coordination from the side of the airport operator is difficult. We envisage a tactical robust scheme whereby ground handlers and the airport operator cooperate, albeit indirectly, in the development of plans for the next day that are less likely to be impacted by at least the more frequent operational disruptions. The scheme is based on a simheuristic approach which integrates ad-hoc heuristics with a hybrid simulation model (agent-based/discrete-event).","PeriodicalId":127025,"journal":{"name":"2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124486120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 15
The Effect of the Distribution of the Inverse Growth Rate on Pancreatic Cancer Progression 逆生长速率分布对胰腺癌进展的影响
2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004877
Lena Abu-El-Haija, J. Ivy, Osman Y. Özaltın, Walter G. Park
{"title":"The Effect of the Distribution of the Inverse Growth Rate on Pancreatic Cancer Progression","authors":"Lena Abu-El-Haija, J. Ivy, Osman Y. Özaltın, Walter G. Park","doi":"10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004877","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004877","url":null,"abstract":"Pancreatic cancer is a low-incidence disease, where tumor progression studies using patient longitudinal data had limited sample sizes. Estimating the tumor inverse growth rate and its distribution are a challenge. Using a tumor progression model that incorporates the distribution of the inverse growth rate as the underlying assumption of the model, pancreatic cancer progression models were built assuming two distributions for the inverse growth rate: Uniform and Gamma. This study uses simulation to evaluate the effect of the tumor inverse growth rate distribution on the tumor progression models by examining tumor timelines. It was found that the tumor timeline is about nine months longer under the assumption that the inverse growth rate follows Gamma distribution. It was inconclusive whether tumor progression is faster or slower in older patients as the tumor progression models with the different underlying assumptions on the inverse growth rate yielded opposite results.","PeriodicalId":127025,"journal":{"name":"2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124938102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Automated Model Development and Parametrization of Material Flow Simulations 物料流模拟的自动化模型开发与参数化
2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004702
M. Milde, G. Reinhart
{"title":"Automated Model Development and Parametrization of Material Flow Simulations","authors":"M. Milde, G. Reinhart","doi":"10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004702","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004702","url":null,"abstract":"Material flow simulations are a powerful tool for planning and improving complex production systems. In practice, however, the potential of simulations cannot be exploited. Long development times and high efforts complicate a successful realization of simulation projects. In this paper we present a new approach to automate time-consuming steps in simulation projects. Based on general tracking and tracing data, our approach reduces the efforts in the area of data acquisition and automates the steps of model development, model parameterization and model implementation. The approach automatically identifies a material flow model, classifies and parametrizes the identified material flow elements and extracts basic control policies. A first prototypical implementation confirms the validity of the approach. The results show that the simulation models can be successfully created automatically with low manual effort.","PeriodicalId":127025,"journal":{"name":"2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123579189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Randomized Quasi-Monte Carlo for Quantile Estimation 分位数估计的随机拟蒙特卡罗算法
2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004679
Zachary T. Kaplan, Yajuan Li, Marvin K. Nakayama, B. Tuffin
{"title":"Randomized Quasi-Monte Carlo for Quantile Estimation","authors":"Zachary T. Kaplan, Yajuan Li, Marvin K. Nakayama, B. Tuffin","doi":"10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004679","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004679","url":null,"abstract":"We compare two approaches for quantile estimation via randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) in an asymptotic setting where the number of randomizations for RQMC grows large but the size of the low-discrepancy point set remains fixed. In the first method, for each randomization, we compute an estimator of the cumulative distribution function (CDF), which is inverted to obtain a quantile estimator, and the overall quantile estimator is the sample average of the quantile estimators across randomizations. The second approach instead computes a single quantile estimator by inverting one CDF estimator across all randomizations. Because quantile estimators are generally biased, the first method leads to an estimator that does not converge to the true quantile as the number of randomizations goes to infinity. In contrast, the second estimator does, and we establish a central limit theorem for it. Numerical results further illustrate these points.","PeriodicalId":127025,"journal":{"name":"2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"129 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122039832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Airport Passenger Shopping Modeling and Simulation: Targeting Distance Impacts 机场旅客购物建模与仿真:目标距离影响
2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004776
Yimeng Chen, Cheng-Lung Wu, Pong-Lung Lau, Nga Yung Agnes Tang, Ngai Ki Ma, Yi-Shih Chung
{"title":"Airport Passenger Shopping Modeling and Simulation: Targeting Distance Impacts","authors":"Yimeng Chen, Cheng-Lung Wu, Pong-Lung Lau, Nga Yung Agnes Tang, Ngai Ki Ma, Yi-Shih Chung","doi":"10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004776","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004776","url":null,"abstract":"The ever-increasing importance of airport retail has encouraged both industry and academics to look into ways to increase airport retail revenue. Despite the growing interests in this topic, there is a lack of passenger shopping behavioral model. This paper aims to fill this gap and enhance our understanding of how the location of the shop affects passenger decision. This paper first investigates the possible passenger shopping behavioral model through an exploratory Eye-tracking exercise. Data was collected to calibrate and validate the behavioral model through the use of an Agent-Based Simulation Model. Shop locations were shown to have a significant impact on the passenger’s choice and overall retail revenue. The result shows that our proposed passenger shopping behavioral model can be suitably applied in our study context. Our model can assist airport retail planner in testing different scenarios to improve airport retail revenue cost-effectively.","PeriodicalId":127025,"journal":{"name":"2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122699936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
On the Modeling and Agent-Based Simulation of a Cooperative Group Anagram Game 合作群体变位博弈的建模与基于agent的仿真研究
2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004754
Zhihao Hu, D. Machi, M. Marathe, S. Ravi, Yihui Ren, Vanessa Cedeno-Mieles, S. Ekanayake, Xinwei Deng, Brian J. Goode, Naren Ramakrishnan, Parang Saraf, Nathan Self, Abhijin Adiga, Gizem Korkmaz, C. Kuhlman
{"title":"On the Modeling and Agent-Based Simulation of a Cooperative Group Anagram Game","authors":"Zhihao Hu, D. Machi, M. Marathe, S. Ravi, Yihui Ren, Vanessa Cedeno-Mieles, S. Ekanayake, Xinwei Deng, Brian J. Goode, Naren Ramakrishnan, Parang Saraf, Nathan Self, Abhijin Adiga, Gizem Korkmaz, C. Kuhlman","doi":"10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004754","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004754","url":null,"abstract":"Anagram games (i.e., word construction games in which players use letters to form words) have been researched for some 60 years. Games with individual players are the subject of over 20 published investigations. Moreover, there are many popular commercial anagram games such as Scrabble. Recently, cooperative team play of anagram games has been studied experimentally. With all of the experimental work and the popularity of such games, it is somewhat surprising that very little modeling of anagram games has been done to predict player behavior/actions in them. We devise a cooperative group anagram game and develop an agent-based modeling and simulation framework to capture player interactions of sharing letters and forming words. Our primary goals are to understand, quantitatively predict, and explain individual and aggregate group behavior, through simulations, to inform the design of a group anagram game experimental platform.","PeriodicalId":127025,"journal":{"name":"2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122814154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Hybrid Simulation to Support Interdependence Modeling of a Multimodal Transportation Network 支持多式联运网络相互依赖建模的混合仿真
2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004813
T. Bipasha, Jose Azucena, Basem A. Alkhaleel, H. Liao, H. Nachtmann
{"title":"Hybrid Simulation to Support Interdependence Modeling of a Multimodal Transportation Network","authors":"T. Bipasha, Jose Azucena, Basem A. Alkhaleel, H. Liao, H. Nachtmann","doi":"10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004813","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004813","url":null,"abstract":"The inland waterways in the United States (U.S.) are used to transport approximately 20% of America’s coal, 22% of U.S. petroleum products, and 60% of farm exports making these waterways a significant contributor to the U.S. multimodal transportation system. In this study, data about natural extreme events affecting inland waterways are collected and used to predict possible occurrences of such events in the future using a spatio-temporal statistical model. We also investigate the waterways disruptions effect on interconnected transportation systems using a simulation tool built on a statistical model. The developed methods are centered on inland waterways but can be used broadly for other local, regional and national infrastructures. A case study based on the Mississippi River and the McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System (MKARNS) is provided to illustrate the use of the simulation tool in interdependence modeling and decision making for the operation of a multimodal transportation network.","PeriodicalId":127025,"journal":{"name":"2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125876437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
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