Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal最新文献

{"title":"Residence and Citizenship by Investment: an updated database on Immigrant Investor Programs (2021)","authors":"Leila Adim","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3914350","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3914350","url":null,"abstract":"In the last decades, many countries have chosen to implement Immigrant Investor Programs (IIPs) to attract foreign capital and boost national economies. IIPs are based on a conditional exchange logic according to which the host country offers residence permits (Residence by Investment — RBI—), citizenship (Citizenship by Investment —CBI—) and, sometimes, preferential tax regimes, to third-country nationals making substantial investments within its territory. The influence of this kind of economic strategies on in —and out— migration of individuals and capitals leads the polarization of both immigrants and states. IIPs, in fact, tend to reveal the existence of a lucky class of immigrants, able to invest in order to skip the standard procedures for obtaining residence permits and/or citizenship, and to show that the provision of preferential treatments is apt to turn states into “top destinations”. Such a polarization does not arise from the willingness to damage a group of immigrants or from attempts to undermine the economy of other countries; by implementing IIPs, host countries pursue economic benefits without minding on any detrimental consequence. IIPs can generate discrimination between high and low-income people —immigrants and citizens—, unfair economic competition among countries, and also mismatches in the field of taxation. All these negative impacts have been widely addressed in the past1 , but they still exist and to fight them, it is important to keep the information related to RBIs and the CBIs always updated. This paper provides a database of these programs and their main characteristics2 with the aim to facilitate the work of all those researchers and organizations that commit themselves to the study of the factors that give rise to economic discrimination and unfair competition.","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129408927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"COVID-19 and Lockdown Policies: A Structural Simulation Model of a Bottom-Up Recession in Four Countries","authors":"S. Robinson, S. Levy, Víctor Hernández, R. Davies, Raúl Hinojosa-Ojeda, Sherwin Gabriel, C. Arndt, D. V. Van Seventer, Marcelo Pleitez","doi":"10.2499/P15738COLL2.134369","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2499/P15738COLL2.134369","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers different approaches to modelling the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic/lockdown shocks. We review different modelling strategies and argue that, given the nature of the bottom-up recession caused by the pandemic/lockdowns, simulation models of the shocks should be based on a social accounting matrix (SAM) that includes both disaggregated sectoral data and the national accounts in a unified framework. SAM-based models have been widely used to analyze the impact of natural disasters, which are comparable to pandemic/lockdown shocks.<br><br>The pandemic/lockdown shocks occurred rapidly, in weeks or months, not gradually over a year or more. In such a short period, adjustments through smooth changes in wages, prices and production methods are not plausible. Rather, initial adjustments occur through changes in quantities, altering demand and supply of commodities and employment in affected sectors. In this environment, we use a linear SAM-multiplier model that specifies a fixed-coefficient production technology, linear demand system, fixed savings rates, and fixed prices.<br><br>There are three different kinds of sectoral shocks that are included in the model: (1) changes in demand due to household lockdown, (2) changes in supply due to industry lockdown, and (3) changes in demand due to induced macro shocks. At the detailed industry level, data are provided for all three shocks and the model imposes the largest of the three.<br><br>We applied the model on a monthly time step for the period March to June 2020 for four countries: US, UK, Mexico, and South Africa. The models closely replicate observed macro results (GDP and employment) for the period. The results provide detailed structural information on the evolution of the different economies month-by-month and provide a framework for forward-looking scenario analysis.<br><br>We also use the SAM-multiplier model to estimate the macro stimulus impacts of policies to support affected households. The model focuses attention on the structural features of the economy that define the multiplier process (who gets the additional income and what do they do with it) and provides a more nuanced analysis of the stimulus impact of income support programs than can be done with aggregated macro models.","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132324941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Russian Industry in January 2022: Recovery of Demand Forecasts","authors":"S. Tsukhlo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3805061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3805061","url":null,"abstract":"The dynamics of demand, moderately negative in comparison with the pessimistic forecasts, allowed the industry to avoid a reduction in output in January, to revise the production and sales plans for the better. However, according to regular polls by the Gaidar Institute, these factors also resulted in the intensive increase in prices for the enterprises products compared to the previous month and contrary to forecasts. In December, the industry expecting a deteriorating epidemiological situation and a drop in demand, was prepared to sacrifice growth of prices to maintain sales. However, this was not required in January, enterprises were able to raise their prices and revise the forecasts for their changes. The personnel policy of industrial enterprises demonstrates great resistance to the impacts of the actual and expected epidemiological situation.","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129143664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecasting Corporate Capital Accumulation in Italy: The Role of Survey-Based Information","authors":"Claire Giordano, M. Marinucci, A. Silvestrini","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3827509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3827509","url":null,"abstract":"While there is a vast macroeconomic literature that singles out the main drivers of capital accumulation in advanced economies during and after the global financial and sovereign debt crises’ recessionary phase, there is much less research seeking to identify both models and variables that possess out-of-sample forecasting ability for gross fixed capital formation. Moreover, micro-founded variables are scarcely employed in macroeconomic forecasting of real investment. We fill this gap by considering a battery of univariate and multivariate time-series models to forecast investment of non-financial corporations in Italy, an interesting case study due to its steep downturn during the two afore-mentioned crises. We find that a vector error correction model augmented with firm survey-based variables accounting for business confidence, demand uncertainty and financing constraints generally outperforms the autoregressive benchmark and a series of competing multivariate time-series models in various, alternative, evaluation samples that take into account the impact of both the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis on forecast accuracy.","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129639635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Russian Industrial Sector in December 2020","authors":"S. Tsukhlo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3782766","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3782766","url":null,"abstract":"Continued demand growth amid increasing shortage of finished goods inventories allowed Russian industry to maintain the output growth at the end of the year. Rather stable and planned recruiting of personnel coupled with a downward trend in investment pessimism allow to discuss the future industrial indexes with cautious optimism.","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133303185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Contribution to the Corporate Finance of Business Cycles","authors":"Robert E. Krainer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3761381","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3761381","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes the balance sheet adjustments of debt and equity financed firms over the business cycle. A model is developed that describes a representative firm with a stochastic diminishing returns technology and a set of financial contracts that resolves a conflict of interest problem between differentially risk-averse bondholders and stockholders. The contractual resolution of this conflict of interest problem is shown to shape certain stylized facts of business cycles ignored in Keynesian and Classical models. Changes in the market value of equities trigger investment decisions and can cause business cycles. Bond covenants then have the firm adjusting its financing decisions so as to offset any risk-shifting associated with the investment decisions. Stockholders manage the asset side of the firm's balance sheet while bondholders (regulators in the case of banks) manage the financing side. In this way the welfare of both investors is coalesced over the business cycle. Evidence presented here and elsewhere fails to reject these predictions for the U.S. non-financial and financial corporate sectors.","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129282612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of Capital Structure on Financial Performance - Evidence from Select BSE Sensex Companies During Pre and Post IND as Adoption Period","authors":"N. Kafle, Sanjib Ghimire","doi":"10.34218/ijm.11.12.2020.064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34218/ijm.11.12.2020.064","url":null,"abstract":"Capital structure decision is one of the most important decisions in the field of financial management which involves assessment about the choice of combination of different sources of funds. These sources of funds include short term debt, long term debt, preferred stock and common stock or equity stock financing and the decision about the perfect mixture of these sources is a difficult task for the financial manager in every business firm. The perfect or ideal mixture is that where the risk and costs are minimum at the same time profits and shareholders’ wealth are maximum. Capital structure decision is a continuous process and becomes optimal when it maximizes the market value of the firm involved. Therefore, the continuous process of capital structure decisions involves an attempt to strike a balance between risks and returns in firm’s operation. Managing of optimal capital structure is of paramount importance as it would affect the profitability and ultimately the value of the firm. However, what constitutes an optimal capital structure is still a unsolved question. Despite the fact that there are many theories which tried to explain the optimal capital structure, researchers in finance have never yet find a model to determine the optimal capital structure","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121774843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Firm Dynamics by Age and Size Classes and the Choice of Size Measure","authors":"Stylianos Giannoulakis, Plutarchos Sakellaris","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3747529","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3747529","url":null,"abstract":"The relationship of firm size and age to its growth and survival differs according to whether size is measured by sales or employment. Using a large and representative dataset of Greek firms over the period 1999-2014, we find the following patterns. Controlling for age, there is a strong negative growth-size relationship when measuring size with sales, but a strong positive one when measuring size with employment. Controlling for size, there is a positive monotonic survival-age relationship when measuring size with sales, whereas survival is negatively related with age for young firms when we measure size with employment. Our results indicate that public policies aimed at supporting Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) should be specialized to the employment scale and the sales scale of enterprises, separately.","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124966969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Home Production with Time to Consume","authors":"William Bednar, N. Pretnar","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3717651","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3717651","url":null,"abstract":"We construct a general equilibrium model with home production where consumers choose how much time to spend using market purchases. With aggregate United States consumption data and the American Time Use Survey, we observe that relative consumption of goods to services has fallen while the relative time households' spending using goods to services has risen. Our estimates reveal that using services has become relatively more productive than using goods in home production. This is because the outputs of the home production process are complementary, so price elasticities of relative goods/services consumption and relative goods/services time use have opposite sign. Our framework explains the observed negative co-movement of relative consumption to relative off-market time use since the early 2000s. In counterfactual analyses, we discuss the implications of our findings for the structural transformation of the U.S. economy from a goods dominated one to one where services play a larger role.","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116948639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fencing Off Silicon Valley: Cross-Border Venture Capital and Technology Spillovers","authors":"Ufuk Akcigit, Sina T. Ateş, J. Lerner, Richard R. Townsend, Yulia Zhestkova","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3691533","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3691533","url":null,"abstract":"The treatment of foreign investors has been a contentious topic in U.S. entrepreneurship policy in recent years. This paper examines foreign corporate investments in Silicon Valley from a theoretical and empirical perspective. We model a setting where such funding may allow U.S. entrepreneurs to pursue technologies that they could not otherwise, but may also lead to spillovers to the overseas firm providing the financing and the nation where it is based. We show that despite the benefits from such inbound investments for U.S. firms, it may be optimal for the U.S. government to raise their costs to deter investments. Using as comprehensive as possible a sample of investments by non-U.S. corporate investors in U.S. start-ups between 1976 and 2015, we find evidence consistent with the presence of knowledge spill-overs to foreign investors.","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"210 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133125709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}